About My 2023 Draft Tiers
I've done all the legwork. Now, it's time to put it together. The tiers are for 12-team leagues with PPR scoring and one quarterback starter. Check out my rankings to tweak them to the format of your choice.
Tiers are better than rankings because they encourage more mental flexibility than staring at players with numbers assigned to them.
The players in each tier will be separated by position and subcategorized by their ceiling and floor relative to their draft-day value:
- High Ceiling/High Floor
- Low Ceiling/High Floor
- High Ceiling/Low Floor
Several players will be ranked significantly higher or lower than their tier. For example, you don't need to take Michael Thomas as a top-36 player, but I value his ceiling this much that it's worth making him a priority pick at the range of his ADP value, if not 1-2 rounds earlier.
These placements will hopefully help you formulate a strategy to get as many of the players in the highest tiers as you can.
Not every player from my rankings will be included in every tier. If you're inclined to ask me, "What about...?" see below.
Let's keep this simple. If you want to learn more about the players in these tiers, here are my extended thoughts:
- Matt Waldman's Rankings with Commentary
- From the Gut
- Favorites
- Players We Trust
- Boom-Bust Players
- Premium Picks + Their Mid-Range/Late-Round Alternatives
- Unlikely Heroes
- Thoughts on individual teams, units, and players
How To Use These Tiers
Mark the current ADP next to each player's name and use it as a cheat sheet. I left ADP off because we're in a period where it may change significantly.
If your drafting style is risk-averse, target as many high-ceiling/high-floor picks as possible, consider high-floor/low-ceiling options with early-round ADPs and limit your selection of high-ceiling/low-floor options early in the draft.
If your style incorporates moderate risk, I'd limit your high-floor/low-ceiling options in the middle rounds and target 1-2 more high-ceiling/low-floor players.
If you embrace risk, just eliminate the high-floor/low-ceiling from your consideration. You may want to consider drafting only from the high-ceiling categories, and if it means you reach a bit for players you want, go for it.
Regardless of your risk tolerance, it's wise to limit, if not curtail, your consideration of high-floor/low-ceiling options after the 12th round in 20-round formats.
Good luck!
Tier 1: Foundational Anchors for Your Build
The players in the first tier have the athletic ability, technical skills, and opportunity to deliver top-12 production at their position. Many have past experience delivering this value.
Most of these players will provide starter value for your roster based on their average weekly production. Some may deliver this value consistently, but their best weeks could put your team well over the top on any given Sunday and will finish the year with similar total point values as the more consistent weekly producers in the tier.
I'm listing all quarterbacks and tight ends that I believe will deliver starter value that you rarely remove from your lineup. The QBs and TEs in this tier could allow you to wait until the end of the draft for depth, and in the case of the TE position, you might decide to play the waiver wire and rent an option for your bye week.
Tier 1 - High Ceiling/High Floor
Wide Receivers
- Justin Jefferson
- Ja'Marr Chase
- Cooper Kupp
- Stefon Diggs
- Davante Adams
- A.J. Brown
- Jaylen Waddle
- CeeDee Lamb
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Amari Cooper
- Chris Olave
- Garrett Wilson
- DK Metcalf
- Tyler Lockett
Running Backs
- Christian McCaffrey: Record-breaking ceiling this year.
- Austin Ekeler
- Nick Chubb - Record-breaking ceiling this year.
- Derrick Henry
- Najee Harris
- Joe Mixon
- Aaron Jones
- J.K. Dobbins - Probably safer for the next tier, but I believe this summer was a ploy to rest Dobbins for a big year ahead.
Quarterbacks
- Patrick Mahomes II - Record-breaking ceiling this year.
- Josh Allen
- Jalen Hurts
- Lamar Jackson
- Joe Burrow
- Justin Herbert
- Trevor Lawrence
- Geno Smith
- Dak Prescott
Tight Ends
- Travis Kelce - Recording-breaking ceiling this year.
- T.J. Hockenson
- Mark Andrews
- Dallas Goedert
- Dalton Kincaid - Perhaps he'd be better cast as the best of the low-ceiling/high-floor options, but I think there's a legitimate chance he outproduces Gabriel Davis as the second-most productive option on the Bills and flirts with 1,000 yards receiving as a rookie.
Tier 1 - Low Ceiling/High Floor
Wide Receivers
- Tee Higgins
- DeVonta Smith
- Calvin Ridley - 1.5 years away from the game, supporting cast, and first real year as "the primary" in the NFL.
- Brandon Aiyuk
Running Backs
- Rhamondre Stevenson - Strong RB2 with low-end RB1 upside, but Ezekiel Elliott eliminates elite RB1 ceiling.
- Bijan Robinson - Will be the lead back, but his projected usage with Allgeier and Patterson may be limited this year.
- Jahmyr Gibbs - Like Robinson, a worthwhile RB2 with RB1 potential, but an elite RB1 ceiling is unlikely.
- Dalvin Cook - Breece Hall is concerned about whether he can make all the cuts, and he is still dealing with knee pain. That's enough to look to Cook as a one-year RB2 who could emerge as a low-end RB1 if Hall doesn't return to form down the stretch.
Tight Ends
- Evan Engram - Improved his game in the 2022 offseason, and the Jaguars needed him more than they may in 2023. Still, a solid TE1.
- Sam LaPorta - The common factor why I'm against the grain on two rookie tight ends factoring as starters is their ability to win one-on-one as a detached option and their offenses' willingness to deploy them in this capacity.
- Kirk Cousins - He's outside my QB1 value in my rankings, but that has more to do with his lack of rushing upside. He's still mostly likely a safe QB1, but you'll have to take him in the 8th or 9th round.
Tier 1 - High Ceiling/Low Floor:
Wide Receivers
- Tyreek Hill - Off-field and Tagovailo's concussion history.
- Michael Thomas - Injuries are my only concern. If he has overcome them, he's a high-end WR2, at worst.
- Christian Watson - Paired with a new quarterback, Watson still needs more NFL experience to consider him reliable relative to his upside.
- Kadarius Toney - The talent and scheme are there, but injury history and maturity are legitimate question marks.
Running Backs
- Saquon Barkley - A homerun-hitting mentality that also leads to bad decisions and injury.
- Tony Pollard - Boom-bust potential if there's added volume. Has worn down in the past.
- Jonathan Taylor - On the trading block, and this year's acclimation period, volume, and supporting cast are unknown. Best as your RB2-RB3
- Alvin Kamara - A stocked depth chart and suspension could lead to fewer touches than in the past but worth it as your RB2-RB3.
- Josh Jacobs - It's difficult to miss training camp and handle the volume he handled last year. If he does it, he can repeat 2022 as an RB1.
Quarterbacks
Tight Ends
- George Kittle - A do-everything-type in an NFL where they wear down fast and begin missing chunks of games.
- Darren Waller - He has top-five production potential at the position, but his injury history is a legitimate concern.
- Kyle Pitts - The first two years in Atlanta tell the story perfectly.
Tier 2: Capable Starters
With the exception of the quarterbacks and tight ends on this list, you probably don't want any of these runners and receivers as your top starter on your depth chart, but they can provide occasional top-12 weeks. You're starting these players weekly unless you're loaded at the position, or there's a significant matchup nightmare for the player and you have a viable alternative with a great opportunity on the schedule.
The quarterbacks in this tier make solid committee options paired with a second passer where you can play the matchups. Until proven otherwise, these passers are not ideal set-it-and-forget-it starters.
The tight ends in this tier are players you can use as standalone starters, but they may lack great upside, and you should be open to having a second option on your roster who could emerge as that weekly option.
Tier 2 - High Ceiling/High Floor:
Wide Receivers
- Jerry Jeudy
- Deebo Samuel
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Christian Kirk
- Terry McLaurin
- Mike Williams
- DJ Moore
- Mike Evans
- Brandin Cooks
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Skills and scheme override inexperience/lack of track record.
Running Backs
- Cam Akers - Questionable offensive line that Akers overcame last year but OL and scheme may limit his elite RB1 ceiling based on ability.
- Dameon Pierce
- James Conner
- Khalil Herbert
Tight Ends
- Chigoziem Okonkwo - If one of the Titans receivers is out for an extended period of time, Okonkwo could jump a tier.
- Pat Freiermuth - Might be a tier too low, but the presence of Darnell Washington may prove frustrating for GMs.
- Tyler Conklin
Quarterbacks
- Daniel Jones
- Derek Carr - my favorite option in this tier because of the potential of his surrounding talent.
- Aaron Rodgers
- Jared Goff
Tier 2 - Low Ceiling/High Floor:
Wide Receivers
- Skyy Moore
- Diontae Johnson
- Jordan Addison - K.J. Osborn may be seen as the No.2 in the rotation, but Addison is the superior talent and should serve as a less productive DeVonta Smith to Justin Jefferson's A.J. Brown.
Running Backs
- Travis Etienne Jr. - Tank Bigsby and D'Ernest Johnson will cap Etienne's ceiling, but I wouldn't overreact to Bigbsy's preseason and completely fade Etienne as a fantasy starter.
- Alexander Mattison
- Ken Walker III - I love his skills, but he's likely in a committee with Zach Carbonnet, which caps his upside.
- David Montgomery - Jahmyr Gibbs blocks Montgomery's RB1 ceiling, but his red-zone value should keep the ceiling at a high-end RB2 value.
- A.J. Dillon - He's a high-ceiling talent, but his situation kills his ceiling without an injury.
Tier 2 - High Ceiling/Low Floor:
Wide Receivers
- Chris Godwin - If paired with a top starter, Godwin would be a Tier 1 receiver with a high floor and high ceiling.
- Michael Pittman Jr - Give Anthony Richardson a year, and Pittman's tier will be much more promising.
- Jahan Dotson - An excellent young player, but he's dependent on a first-year starter at quarterback.
- George Pickens - A highlight-reel player who must prove he's a complete option to bust through to the next tier.
- Courtland Sutton
- Treylon Burks - Begins the season injured, and the offensive line could lead to quarterback changes.
- Marquise Brown
- Zay Flowers
Running Backs
- James Cook
- Javonte Williams - His injury and the presence of two capable talents, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin, are reasons for caution. If all the way back, Williams has a low-end RB1 upside this year.
- DAndre Swift - Kenneth Gainwell could be the better all-around player, and this backfield may remain in flux all year.
Quarterbacks
- Russell Wilson - The receiving corps lacks significant upgrades, and Sean Payton won't be patient with Wilson. I anticipate a rebound, but it is worth hedging with a committee approach.
- Tua Tagovailoa - If not for head injuries, he'd be in Tier 1 as a high-ceiling/high-floor option. Hedge with a more reliable option.
- Kyler Murray
Tight Ends
- Tyler Higbee - Matt Stafford could really use him as the second option in this passing attack, but Higbee's injury history (he has played hurt a lot) and Brycen Hopkins' summer performance could be a hidden trap door for Higbee's downside.
- Dalton Schultz - When targeted, he can factor. Will C.J. Stroud target him enough?
- David Njoku
- Noah Fant
Tier 3: Contributors
These players may be NFL starters or lead options in a committee with ADPs commensurate with players in higher tiers, but I consider them too risky to use as weekly starters until they prove otherwise.
If you start 3-4 receivers or running backs in your lineups, some of these options will be every-week starters for you but you may have to ride out more off-weeks than players in the higher tiers.
Tier 3 - High Ceiling/High Floor:
Wide Receivers
Running Backs
- Brian Robinson - I think I am too low on him in my rankings and wouldn't be surprised if he belongs in the same category a tier higher.
- Damien Harris
- Jeff Wilson Jr.
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Zach Charbonnet
- Jamaal Williams
- Kareem Hunt
- Leonard Fournette
Quarterbacks
- Kenny Pickett - As a second passer in a committee, he's a solid consideration.
Tier 3 - Low Ceiling/High Floor:
Running Backs
- Isiah Pacheco
- Jerick McKinnon
- Samaje Perine - He may drop to a high ceiling/low floor if Williams looks good.
- Devin Singletary
- Kenneth Gainwell
Wide Receivers
- Drake London - Desmond Ridder should be good enough to keep London productive enough as a WR3, but will he adapt to the NFL fast enough to support London's individual potential as a strong WR2? That's the question for 2023.
- Jayden Reed - He'll be one of the three most targeted options, but whether it's second or third and whether Jordan Love is for real are question marks.
- Richie James
- Nico Collins
- Zay Jones
- Allen Lazard
Tight Ends
Quarterbacks
Tier 3 - High Ceiling/Low Floor:
Wide Receivers
- Rashod Bateman
- Odell Beckham Jr - If the knee holds up, he can deliver high-end WR2 value...maybe higher.
- Gabe Davis
- Michael Gallup
- D.J. Chark Jr
- Romeo Doubs
- Darius Slayton
- Allen Robinson II - Appears locked in as the Steelers' starting slot receiver. A worthwhile value play after being written off.
- Elijah Moore - Will the Browns use him in a broader role than a gadget?
- Quentin Johnston
- Michael Wilson
- Rashid Shaheed
- Tank Dell
Running Backs
- Breece Hall - As of late August, Hall is still dealing with knee pain and questioning the ability to make all the cuts.
- Rachaad White - I'd rather draft Sean Tucker at the end of a deep draft than lean on White as an RB2. He's a boom-bust RB3 for me.
- Antonio Gibson - Tremendous talent, but not a tremendously refined talent.
- Tyjae Spears - If Henry gets hurt, he can be a league winner. However, can the offense find a way to feature him to generate weekly value as a contributor?
- Tank Bigsby - Jaguars faithful are over the moon, but so far, I still see the same back who bounces runs outside too often. Worth a stab.
- Raheem Mostert
- Rashaad Penny
- Cordarrelle Patterson
Quarterbacks
- Anthony Richardson - I absolutely believe there's a possibility that Richardson's passing prowess is enough to deliver solid fantasy QB1 value. However, he's young and inexperienced with young receivers who are also relatively inexperienced. I expect growing pains that rushing yardage won't overcome.
- Matthew Stafford - Age, injuries, and a questionable offensive line and receiving corps.
- Jordan Love
- Desmond Ridder
Tight Ends
- Zach Ertz - likely splitting targets with Tre McBride this year.
- Greg Dulcich
- Robert Tonyan Jr, Jr.
- Logan Thomas
- Trey McBride
- Dawson Knox
Tier 4: Bye Weeks with Flex Upside
These players may have a run of strong weeks that rocket them into the collective consciousness of fantasy GMs, but most either lack the skills, experience, long-term role, or supporting talent to become reliable season-long.
Those that have the potential are backup running backs on teams where they may not earn a lot of touches or on crowded depth charts.
Tier 4 - High Ceiling/High Floor
Wide Receivers
- Darnell Mooney
- K.J. Osborn
- Donovan Peoples-Jones
- Jonathan Mingo
- Marvin Jones Jr
- Devin Duvernay
- Justyn Ross
Running Backs
- Keaontay Ingram - Fantasy starter skills if James Conner falters.
- DOnta Foreman
- Jaylen Warren
- Michael Carter
- Gus Edwards
- Elijah Mitchell
- Trey Sermon
- Deuce Vaughn
- Tyler Allgeier
- D'Ernest Johnson
- Roschon Johnson
Tight Ends
Quarterbacks
Tier 4 - Low Ceiling/High Floor
Wide Receivers
- Tyler Boyd
- Isaiah Hodgins
- Josh Reynolds
- Josh Downs
- Marvin Mims Jr.
- Kyle Philips
- Kendrick Bourne
- Zach Pascal
- Ben Skowronek
- Cedric Tillman
- Damiere Byrd
- Quez Watkins
- Wan'Dale Robinson
- David Bell
- Noah Brown
- Sterling Shepard
Running Backs
Tight Ends
Tier 4 - High Ceiling/Low Floor
Wide Receivers
- Mack Hollins
- Robert Woods
- Van Jefferson
- Tyquan Thornton
- Joshua Palmer
- Rondale Moore
- Khalil Shakir
- Greg Dortch
- Jalin Hyatt
- Puka Nacua
- Denzel Mims
- Jameson Williams
- Mecole Hardman Jr.
- Parris Campbell
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- Chase Claypool
- DeVante Parker
- Calvin Austin III
- Robbie Chosen
- John Metchie III
- Tutu Atwell
- Terrace Marshall Jr
Running Back
Quarterbacks
Tight Ends
