The Gut Check No.592: 10 Unlikely Heroes for 2023

Photo: USA Today Sports

Why Should You Know About These Players?

Brock Purdy, Geno Smith, Isiah Pacheco, and Samaje Perine are four players with fantasy value last year who had low draft capital, were written off as legitimate contributors of value, and/or had an uncertain role in their offenses to begin the year. All four were impactful players who provided several weeks of fantasy value that could have at least saved parts of your season.

Austin Ekeler, Jerick McKinnon, Raheem Mostert, Allen Lazard, Jakobi Meyers, Stefon Diggs, George Kittle, and Tyler Conklin are eight more whose original NFL Draft capital made them unlikely fantasy heroes to begin their careers. Ekeler, Diggs, and Kittle are elite players with no better than fifth-round draft capital.

Other than Smith and Perine, who struggled early in their careers, none of the teams that drafted these players had high expectations for immediate contributions heading into training camp. Many of these players didn't have success with the team that originally signed them. Mostert needed stints with seven different teams before he earned his shot.

At this point of the year, most of the fantasy industry is focused on players who possess an average draft position. It's only logical, fantasy drafts are the most important part of team building. The best drafts help you acquire players who not only become difference-makers but also lead you to mid-round and late-round values that give you the depth for productive lineup management or parlay into players you need to fill holes on your roster.

The bad news that you already know is that only 1-2 teams will have a draft that can be labeled as the best. The good news is that roughly half of the league has a draft that's good enough to contend. Transforming a good draft into a strong contender requires you to build via free agency and trades and win with strong lineup management.

Learning about the underrated and overlooked players who could emerge as unlikely fantasy heroes is one of the keys to successful team management beyond the draft. It's especially valuable to learn about these players while they remain anonymous or unimportant to most of the fantasy-playing public.

The earlier you know about these players, the better.

Players without an ADP are generally the pool of talent the public is the least knowledgeable about. Some are players who never had draft capital and few have studied their games enough to communicate more than a superficial assessment that often glosses over valuable skills. Others are players who had draft capital, even strong capital, but due to injuries, a poor system fit, team politics, or early-career immaturity, the public writes off the player as not good enough, and the label sticks.

The more you know about players who may not have a current ADP, the less dependent you are on the incomplete and/or inaccurate reports from beat writers who often base their assessments on brief moments in practice rather than seasons of college film. Few beat writers will see players like Isaiah Crowell, Terrell Davis, Arian Foster, and Raheem Mostert struggling to earn meaningful reps in practice and share anything more about the player than how he looks physically.

Most will play the logical numbers game and tell you that these players are on the roster bubble and probably won't make the club. At least until an injury or change in the team's outlook on the player leads to more reps for these performers. Then, the beat writers will have a reason to do legitimate legwork on the players. By then, everyone will be interested in these players and your advantages of knowledge and time begin to evaporate.

Knowing more about these players gives you the advantage of acquiring the player weeks earlier and significantly cheaper in formats where you're afforded this type of roster room. Even if you acquire the player immediately after he does something notable in multiple practices or a preseason game, you'll still be 1-3 days ahead of the beat writers, fantasy analysts, and your competition that reads them.

The more you know and the earlier you know it, the more likely you'll gain an edge in timing and value when putting your knowledge to practical use. Sometimes, the value of that edge is having enough time to generate confidence in your valuation of the player. The longer you've done your homework on the player, the less likely you'll have doubts that hold you back from making the move to acquire them.

The 10 players listed below (in no particular order) are options with the talent to emerge as fantasy heroes in 2023. As of July, their standing with their respective teams doesn't make them likely heroes.

Monitor these players during July and early August and put them on the list of players you can add during first-come, first-serve free-agent periods. as you cut options who no longer present enough value to your team. If the buzz on any of these players grows during training camp, you'll know enough to adjust your draft plans and act accordingly.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos

The front office and coaching regime that signed former UDFA-turned-lead-back Phillip Lindsay is no longer in Denver, but new head coach Sean Payton has had his share of success with lesser-known running backs in New Orleans. Look no further than Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas. Javonte Williams is returning from a difficult knee injury, and Samaje Perine is a capable NFL runner, but the rest of the depth chart is unproven.

And if Perine must assume the lead role for a significant part of the season, the Broncos will want the depth chart to have speedier options for specific offensive packages. There are only two of note at the moment: Second-year back Tyler Badie and McLaughlin.

Badie didn't last in Baltimore and is hoping to make Denver's roster. He's a straight-line speedster with promise as a check-down receiver and return specialist. He must prove his decision-making between the tackles is competent enough to deliver more than a narrow bandwidth of plays that risk the offense being predictable when on the field.

Youngstown State's McLaughlin may not have the big-name program experience of Missouri alum Badie, but McLaughlin enters the league a more versatile runner than Badie did last year.

McLaughlin is an undersized option at 5-foot-7 and 187 pounds on the low end of the physical dimensions that teams desire from a change of pace back. Like Lindsay, McLaughin is an explosive runner with excellent footwork who anticipates open creases between the tackles and can explode through holes into the secondary. He's a mature runner who can handle enough touches inside to make an opponent pay for discounting his interior running.

McLaughlin's speed also translated when facing SEC-level athletes.

The best way to summarize McLaughlin is that he has a chance to become Phillip Lindsay with superior ball skills. His ball security is among the best in this class, and he has a competent catch radius as a receiver, handling contact effectively at the catch point.

He's not the player the Broncos will want protecting its quarterbacks. McLaughlin misses interior blitzes, and his positioning against opponents needs work. But if called upon to shield or help with a double team, he makes the effort.

Lindsay earned his opportunity due to injuries, and McLaughlin could be in the position to do the same.

RB Deneric Prince, Kansas City Chiefs

Here's my pre-draft Elevator Pitch from Prince's scouting report from the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (available here):

Prince is a promising gap runner with juice and finishing power. He attacks small creases effectively and makes mature decisions that you don’t always see from a runner with his speed.

Although there are runs where Prince tries to lean too much on his agility instead of his power, Prince knows how to use his size and contact balance to finish plays.

His pass protection is promising enough to project a role for him in an offense during the next 2-3 seasons and potentially, a productive committee spot if he can improve his pass catching.

It wouldn’t be surprising if Prince earns a package of touches in each game during his rookie year or at least earns 1-3 touches per game as relief for a current starter. If asked to contribute significant volume as an injury substitute, he can become a viable producer this year—even if he’s not a complete player in every aspect of the position at this time.

Prince has earned accolades during minicamp and OTAs — enough buzz that beat writers are telling the public that Prince has a heightened chance to make the roster after his spring showing. Remember when I shared how many beat writers can be a little late to the party?

I make that statement because an associate of mine with connections to the Chiefs asked me about Prince before the NFL Draft and wanted to cross-check his thoughts with mine before sharing them with the inquiring mind. The Chiefs had their eye on Prince well before April.

Think of Prince as a faster Darrel Williams with a little more work to do short-term, but more upside long-term. If Prince continues to make a strong impression and the rest of the depth chart stays healthy, he could be a reason for a shakeup of the Chiefs' running back room in August that sends a veteran packing.

WR Justyn Ross, Kansas City Chiefs

If you've been a regular reader for a few years, you know I had a strong pre-draft grade for Ross. I compared him stylistically to Hakeem Nicks and Corey Davis with some of A.J. Green's upside as a technician. Here's my Elevator Pitch from the 2022 RSP:

Hunter built significant draft capital early in his career with Trevor Lawrence as his quarterback. His 6-catch, 153-yard performance against Alabama in the 2019 bowl game coronated his arrival as a top NFL prospect. It all fell apart with injuries.

Hunter, who had been suffering from chronic stingers, discovered that he had cervical/spinal issues and had congenital spinal surgery to correct the problem. After a rigorous rehab process that cost him the 2020 season, Hunter returned to play with his best quarterback now a Jacksonville Jaguar. Hunter finished his career working with a less accurate quarterback who often targeted Ross in situations that were simply not open. This led to multiple ill-advised targets that I bet have been graded as drops in many circles.

Hunter also played through most of the 2021 season with a stress fracture in the fifth metatarsal of his foot. The two injuries and the decline in quarterback play will likely be significant factors in dropping Hunter well outside the top 100 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. Much like Nick Chubb before and after his knee injury, I watched Hunter before and after his injury and frankly, didn’t see a significant decline in his play.

Hunter is a skilled flanker with a wealth of release moves that help him earn separation at the line of scrimmage and the top of his stems. He’s not an explosive deep threat, but that’s not really what one expects from a flanker without the aid of the play-action game, double moves, and other longer-developing routes concepts. That said, give Hunter time to reach his top gear and he’ll pull away from safeties and hold off cornerbacks for long gains.

Ross isn’t big, but he’s adept at using his hands and playing physically enough to dictate terms to coverage and create space at the catch point. His mobility is good enough to drop his weight in and out of hard breaks and he’s effective with speed breaks. He’ll never be known purely for his route running, but there are only about 10-15 starters in the league that are.

Ross is the type of receiver an offense will want to place on an island to one side of the field and draw a favorable matchup when running intermediate and vertical routes. He’s also the player an offense will move inside in trips alignments and match him up with a nickel corner or safety where Ross can use his catch radius to earn targets over the top or away from the defender.

The greatest concern with Ross isn’t his on-field skills but his injuries and based on the fact that he played last year after the most concerning of the two while gritting through the foot injury might be a more optimistic sign than what draft capital may indicate. If there’s a receiver in this class who could be getting undersold in value for issues outside his control, Ross is a candidate.

What is the best scheme fit? A flanker in a spread offense where he’ll benefit from one-on-one matchups and the opportunity to move inside to draw favorable coverages. Or, in a run-heavy, old-school West Coast offense with a productive play-action and misdirection component that gives Ross one-on-one opportunity with time to reach his top speed in the vertical game.

As you can see, the Chiefs are a spread offense built on the foundation of an old-school West Coast offense with productive play-action and misdirection components.

When it comes to sharing the wealth, Kansas City isn't as fantasy friendly of a passing game as you'd think. Patrick Mahomes II gives most of his love to Travis Kelce and his top wide receiver. Kadarius Toney is penciled in as that option this year, but if the Chiefs have to put an eraser to Toney, the opportunity is wide open.

Ross might be the most talented of the bunch. Although the least proven, he's healthy and already gained the trust of Mahomes this offseason. Absolutely a development worth monitoring.

RB Zach Evans, Los Angeles Rams

When scouting Evans this year in the 2023 RSP, his story was one of the bigger puzzles. Here's his Elevator Pitch from the pre-draft guide: