The Gut Check No.592: 10 Unlikely Heroes for 2023

Why Should You Know About These Players?

Brock Purdy, Geno Smith, Isiah Pacheco, and Samaje Perine are four players with fantasy value last year who had low draft capital, were written off as legitimate contributors of value, and/or had an uncertain role in their offenses to begin the year. All four were impactful players who provided several weeks of fantasy value that could have at least saved parts of your season.

Austin Ekeler, Jerick McKinnon, Raheem Mostert, Allen Lazard, Jakobi Meyers, Stefon Diggs, George Kittle, and Tyler Conklin are eight more whose original NFL Draft capital made them unlikely fantasy heroes to begin their careers. Ekeler, Diggs, and Kittle are elite players with no better than fifth-round draft capital.

Other than Smith and Perine, who struggled early in their careers, none of the teams that drafted these players had high expectations for immediate contributions heading into training camp. Many of these players didn't have success with the team that originally signed them. Mostert needed stints with seven different teams before he earned his shot.

At this point of the year, most of the fantasy industry is focused on players who possess an average draft position. It's only logical, fantasy drafts are the most important part of team building. The best drafts help you acquire players who not only become difference-makers but also lead you to mid-round and late-round values that give you the depth for productive lineup management or parlay into players you need to fill holes on your roster.

The bad news that you already know is that only 1-2 teams will have a draft that can be labeled as the best. The good news is that roughly half of the league has a draft that's good enough to contend. Transforming a good draft into a strong contender requires you to build via free agency and trades and win with strong lineup management.

Learning about the underrated and overlooked players who could emerge as unlikely fantasy heroes is one of the keys to successful team management beyond the draft. It's especially valuable to learn about these players while they remain anonymous or unimportant to most of the fantasy-playing public.

The earlier you know about these players, the better.

Players without an ADP are generally the pool of talent the public is the least knowledgeable about. Some are players who never had draft capital and few have studied their games enough to communicate more than a superficial assessment that often glosses over valuable skills. Others are players who had draft capital, even strong capital, but due to injuries, a poor system fit, team politics, or early-career immaturity, the public writes off the player as not good enough, and the label sticks.

The more you know about players who may not have a current ADP, the less dependent you are on the incomplete and/or inaccurate reports from beat writers who often base their assessments on brief moments in practice rather than seasons of college film. Few beat writers will see players like Isaiah Crowell, Terrell Davis, Arian Foster, and Raheem Mostert struggling to earn meaningful reps in practice and share anything more about the player than how he looks physically.

Most will play the logical numbers game and tell you that these players are on the roster bubble and probably won't make the club. At least until an injury or change in the team's outlook on the player leads to more reps for these performers. Then, the beat writers will have a reason to do legitimate legwork on the players. By then, everyone will be interested in these players and your advantages of knowledge and time begin to evaporate.

Knowing more about these players gives you the advantage of acquiring the player weeks earlier and significantly cheaper in formats where you're afforded this type of roster room. Even if you acquire the player immediately after he does something notable in multiple practices or a preseason game, you'll still be 1-3 days ahead of the beat writers, fantasy analysts, and your competition that reads them.

The more you know and the earlier you know it, the more likely you'll gain an edge in timing and value when putting your knowledge to practical use. Sometimes, the value of that edge is having enough time to generate confidence in your valuation of the player. The longer you've done your homework on the player, the less likely you'll have doubts that hold you back from making the move to acquire them.

The 10 players listed below (in no particular order) are options with the talent to emerge as fantasy heroes in 2023. As of July, their standing with their respective teams doesn't make them likely heroes.

Monitor these players during July and early August and put them on the list of players you can add during first-come, first-serve free-agent periods. as you cut options who no longer present enough value to your team. If the buzz on any of these players grows during training camp, you'll know enough to adjust your draft plans and act accordingly.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos

The front office and coaching regime that signed former UDFA-turned-lead-back Phillip Lindsay is no longer in Denver, but new head coach Sean Payton has had his share of success with lesser-known running backs in New Orleans. Look no further than Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas. Javonte Williams is returning from a difficult knee injury, and Samaje Perine is a capable NFL runner, but the rest of the depth chart is unproven.

And if Perine must assume the lead role for a significant part of the season, the Broncos will want the depth chart to have speedier options for specific offensive packages. There are only two of note at the moment: Second-year back Tyler Badie and McLaughlin.

Badie didn't last in Baltimore and is hoping to make Denver's roster. He's a straight-line speedster with promise as a check-down receiver and return specialist. He must prove his decision-making between the tackles is competent enough to deliver more than a narrow bandwidth of plays that risk the offense being predictable when on the field.

Youngstown State's McLaughlin may not have the big-name program experience of Missouri alum Badie, but McLaughlin enters the league a more versatile runner than Badie did last year.

McLaughlin is an undersized option at 5-foot-7 and 187 pounds on the low end of the physical dimensions that teams desire from a change of pace back. Like Lindsay, McLaughin is an explosive runner with excellent footwork who anticipates open creases between the tackles and can explode through holes into the secondary. He's a mature runner who can handle enough touches inside to make an opponent pay for discounting his interior running.

McLaughlin's speed also translated when facing SEC-level athletes.

The best way to summarize McLaughlin is that he has a chance to become Phillip Lindsay with superior ball skills. His ball security is among the best in this class, and he has a competent catch radius as a receiver, handling contact effectively at the catch point.

He's not the player the Broncos will want protecting its quarterbacks. McLaughlin misses interior blitzes, and his positioning against opponents needs work. But if called upon to shield or help with a double team, he makes the effort.

Lindsay earned his opportunity due to injuries, and McLaughlin could be in the position to do the same.

RB Deneric Prince, Kansas City Chiefs

Here's my pre-draft Elevator Pitch from Prince's scouting report from the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (available here):

Prince is a promising gap runner with juice and finishing power. He attacks small creases effectively and makes mature decisions that you don’t always see from a runner with his speed.

Although there are runs where Prince tries to lean too much on his agility instead of his power, Prince knows how to use his size and contact balance to finish plays.

His pass protection is promising enough to project a role for him in an offense during the next 2-3 seasons and potentially, a productive committee spot if he can improve his pass catching.

It wouldn’t be surprising if Prince earns a package of touches in each game during his rookie year or at least earns 1-3 touches per game as relief for a current starter. If asked to contribute significant volume as an injury substitute, he can become a viable producer this year—even if he’s not a complete player in every aspect of the position at this time.

Prince has earned accolades during minicamp and OTAs — enough buzz that beat writers are telling the public that Prince has a heightened chance to make the roster after his spring showing. Remember when I shared how many beat writers can be a little late to the party?

I make that statement because an associate of mine with connections to the Chiefs asked me about Prince before the NFL Draft and wanted to cross-check his thoughts with mine before sharing them with the inquiring mind. The Chiefs had their eye on Prince well before April.

Think of Prince as a faster Darrel Williams with a little more work to do short-term, but more upside long-term. If Prince continues to make a strong impression and the rest of the depth chart stays healthy, he could be a reason for a shakeup of the Chiefs' running back room in August that sends a veteran packing.

WR Justyn Ross, Kansas City Chiefs

If you've been a regular reader for a few years, you know I had a strong pre-draft grade for Ross. I compared him stylistically to Hakeem Nicks and Corey Davis with some of A.J. Green's upside as a technician. Here's my Elevator Pitch from the 2022 RSP:

Hunter built significant draft capital early in his career with Trevor Lawrence as his quarterback. His 6-catch, 153-yard performance against Alabama in the 2019 bowl game coronated his arrival as a top NFL prospect. It all fell apart with injuries.

Hunter, who had been suffering from chronic stingers, discovered that he had cervical/spinal issues and had congenital spinal surgery to correct the problem. After a rigorous rehab process that cost him the 2020 season, Hunter returned to play with his best quarterback now a Jacksonville Jaguar. Hunter finished his career working with a less accurate quarterback who often targeted Ross in situations that were simply not open. This led to multiple ill-advised targets that I bet have been graded as drops in many circles.

Hunter also played through most of the 2021 season with a stress fracture in the fifth metatarsal of his foot. The two injuries and the decline in quarterback play will likely be significant factors in dropping Hunter well outside the top 100 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. Much like Nick Chubb before and after his knee injury, I watched Hunter before and after his injury and frankly, didn’t see a significant decline in his play.

Hunter is a skilled flanker with a wealth of release moves that help him earn separation at the line of scrimmage and the top of his stems. He’s not an explosive deep threat, but that’s not really what one expects from a flanker without the aid of the play-action game, double moves, and other longer-developing routes concepts. That said, give Hunter time to reach his top gear and he’ll pull away from safeties and hold off cornerbacks for long gains.

Ross isn’t big, but he’s adept at using his hands and playing physically enough to dictate terms to coverage and create space at the catch point. His mobility is good enough to drop his weight in and out of hard breaks and he’s effective with speed breaks. He’ll never be known purely for his route running, but there are only about 10-15 starters in the league that are.

Ross is the type of receiver an offense will want to place on an island to one side of the field and draw a favorable matchup when running intermediate and vertical routes. He’s also the player an offense will move inside in trips alignments and match him up with a nickel corner or safety where Ross can use his catch radius to earn targets over the top or away from the defender.

The greatest concern with Ross isn’t his on-field skills but his injuries and based on the fact that he played last year after the most concerning of the two while gritting through the foot injury might be a more optimistic sign than what draft capital may indicate. If there’s a receiver in this class who could be getting undersold in value for issues outside his control, Ross is a candidate.

What is the best scheme fit? A flanker in a spread offense where he’ll benefit from one-on-one matchups and the opportunity to move inside to draw favorable coverages. Or, in a run-heavy, old-school West Coast offense with a productive play-action and misdirection component that gives Ross one-on-one opportunity with time to reach his top speed in the vertical game.

As you can see, the Chiefs are a spread offense built on the foundation of an old-school West Coast offense with productive play-action and misdirection components.

When it comes to sharing the wealth, Kansas City isn't as fantasy friendly of a passing game as you'd think. Patrick Mahomes II gives most of his love to Travis Kelce and his top wide receiver. Kadarius Toney is penciled in as that option this year, but if the Chiefs have to put an eraser to Toney, the opportunity is wide open.

Ross might be the most talented of the bunch. Although the least proven, he's healthy and already gained the trust of Mahomes this offseason. Absolutely a development worth monitoring.

RB Zach Evans, Los Angeles Rams

When scouting Evans this year in the 2023 RSP, his story was one of the bigger puzzles. Here's his Elevator Pitch from the pre-draft guide:

Evans is the most problematic-difficult evaluation among the running backs in this class. His metrics won’t look promising as an athlete or a consistent producer. He also weighed in at 202 pounds at the NFL Combine when listed at 212 during his college career.

All of this will likely fly in the face of statistical models for successful NFL running backs, which could scare off the analytics silo of draft analysis.

Evans’ quixotic recruiting journey began with him signing with Georgia and, after several developments, ended with him at TCU, a school not on the radar to sign him. In addition, he reportedly had multiple run-ins with his high school coaches. Add to these tales a transfer from TCU to Ole Miss that ended with TCU earning a National Championship season with Kendre Miller in the backfield and Evans splitting time with freshman sensation Quinshon Judkins and Evans’ decision-making appears suspect.

This will scare off the silo of football reporters and analysts who follow narratives down dark corridors.

If you’re one of those fantasy GMs that like to mitigate as much risk as possible, Evans is not for you unless he falls to the second or third round of your fantasy drafts. Even so, a running back who looks better on film than he does with metrics isn’t new.

Dalvin Cook has a style short on hard cuts and long on curvilinear movement. Like Evans, his vertical leap was unimpressive and his shuttle times were also lackluster for a hopeful NFL starter. Both Evans and Cook possess effective curvilinear movement that doesn’t require as much explosion as backs that solely rely on a hard-cutting and/or stop-start running style.

Many backs cut weight for the NFL Combine and 10 pounds is nothing for a young man to gain or lose in his weight range. Evans likely cut weight to run faster but suffered an injury during training that kept him from running in Indianapolis.

Terrell Davis, Reggie Bush, Ray Rice, Clinton Portis, Tiki Barber, Thomas Jones, and several other excellent running backs began their NFL careers in the range of 190-195 pounds and added muscle over the course of a year or two. Evans has room to add 10-15 pounds of muscle.

The most important thing for my evaluation of Evans is his film and it’s where he thrives. Evans is a more advanced decision-maker than I’ve seen credited in many circles.

I have him graded as the best overall decision-maker in this class. Evans possesses patience, an understanding of gap and zone blocking, how to read leverage pre- and post-snap, and how to maximize his blockers behind the line of scrimmage and at the second and third levels of the defense.

He’s also a more dynamic mover than his vertical leap (and subsequent workouts) may suggest. His speed and acceleration are also notable enough on film that I’m not heavily invested in the outcome of his Pro Day if he runs.

When looking solely at his film, Evans is every bit as capable of developing into a productive NFL starter as any option in this class. He could wind up the best back in the RSP’s top tier if his acceleration is even better than I have it ranked and his ball security improves on Sundays.

The biggest questions are his ability to play well with others and his injury history. Evans broke team rules twice as a high school senior and he missed his team’s state championship game because of refusing to give up his cell phone the night before per team rules. There’s speculation that Evans’ recruiting journey spiraled out of control because he lacked strong guidance after his grandfather passed in the fall of 2018.

Evans has been a good student. He delivered a 3.75 GPA as a freshman at TCU, earning Academic All-Rookie honors. According to a TCU football analysis site, the concerns about Evans are “character assassination” and “completely unfair.”

“Evans was nothing but a great teammate and student by all accounts, vocal on the sideline in games he didn’t play, and excelling in the classroom. He’s a good kid who overcame some maturity issues at a young age and leveraged his worth to maximize his opportunities.”

Considering that Evans mishandled his own recruitment after the only strong parent figure in his life passed the year prior but managed a strong academic record and his off-field issues were not remotely criminal or substance-oriented, the conclusions drawn about Evans are superficial if there’s nothing else lurking beneath the surface.

Former head coach Gary Patterson knew TCU stood to lose up to 30 players if the school didn’t figure out NIL deals and that Evans was one of them. If Evans didn’t have the recruiting saga in high school, this would have been a non-issue.

My biggest concern of everything mentioned is his injury history and that’s the case with every running back entering the league. It means he’s a potential steal if all of these silos of football analysts influence NFL and fantasy decision-makers and lead them astray.

The Rams' signing of Sony Michel will lead many to presume that it's a statement against Evans. Michel is an injury-riddled back whose best days are way behind him as an every-down runner, but he still offers value as a situational player who can deliver in the passing game.

If anything, Michel's addition is a statement against Kyren Williams as a future option of note. Evans' passing-down skills will need additional work as is the case with most rookie backs but he has a lot of promise as a blocker. If Cam Akers gets hurt or falls out of favor yet again with his on-again, off-again relationship with Sean McVay, Evans could deliver immediately on the ground.

RB Trey Sermon, Philadelphia Eagles

D'Andre Swift is not one of them. Swift earned a ticket out of Detroit and its excellent offensive line because he has a narrow but deep set of talents, and they don't include nuanced running between the tackles. Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott both have the smarts but not the size that the Eagles covet.

Sermon has earned unsolicited praise from head coach Nick Sirianni during media events twice during the past four months. Philadelphia supposedly had a second-round grade on Sermon, which is consistent with what I heard about his value heading into the 2021 NFL Draft.

Although he didn't fit in with Kyle Shanahan, who has preferred to bastardize the wide zone scheme with fast and less instinctive runners and give them few demands as decision-makers. Based on what I've seen in Atlanta and San Francisco, Shanahan has a clear type at running back, and his GMs and scouts are on the same page.

As was the case with the Tevin Coleman-Devonta Freeman dynamic in Atlanta, eventually Shanahan's superiors forced Shanahan to use a wiser decision-maker, and the offense succeeded--even if not following Shanahan's purest vision. This is likely the underlying dynamic behind the team's acquisition of Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco.

Sermon moves like an NFL starting running back. Correction, Sermon moves like a top-shelf NFL running back.

This strong, quick, and versatile Oklahoma transfer has all of the movement tools to excel on Sundays. He knows when to be dynamic and when to be efficient, and he can do it with his steps, his cuts, as well as how wide he opens his hips.

Whether it’s in the backfield, at the entrance of a crease, at the edge with a one-on-one against a safety, or in the open field after building up downhill momentum, Sermon uses his feet, knees, hips, shoulders, and head to freeze, circumnavigate, or hurdle the opposition. And if these are options, he’ll run over or drag defenders.

The foundation for Sermon’s movement is his feel for defender angles, his knowledge of blocking schemes, and his excellent balance. You’ll see it all on display below.

The praise Sirianni has delivered about Sermon unprompted by media questions could be a ploy to generate value for the open market or to instill some confidence in the young player. However, the praise came before and after acquiring Swift, which tells me that we should be monitoring Sermon's camp closely.

We may be presuming too soon that Rashaad Penny is the clear-cut No.1 back. Penny is more than capable of elite production when healthy. Staying healthy is a massive question mark.

RB Sean Tucker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Not practicing with the team as of now, Tucker's significant UDFA contract has his teammates calling him "Baby Nick Chubb." Tucker doesn't like it, and neither do I. But I like Tucker's speed and cutback acumen.

I also like his potential as a decision-maker more than Rachaad White. I don't expect any Buccaneers runner to perform at the highest level of potential behind this offensive line and quarterback combination in 2023, but a good training camp could put Tucker in the No.2 spot. If this happens, he could emerge as a midseason contributor of note as the Buccaneers likely attempt to shake up the offense after several early-season losses.

If the Buccaneers are in contention but White struggles, expect Tampa Bay to sign a veteran.

TE Cole Turner, Washington Commanders

Turner impressed the commanders last year, but an injury derailed his prospects of earning the significant playing time that the coaches had in store for him. Turner has once again delivered buzz-worthy work this spring.

He's a dynamic pass catcher with great length to win contested targets as a boundary match-up threat one-on-one, and he has the skills to find openings against zone coverage.

Logan Thomas may have 1-2 years left if he can remain healthy. John Bates is a nice reserve with better blocking skills than Turner had last year, but he's not as big of a threat as a receiver. Curtis Hodges is an intriguing player with size, length, and receiving skills who could also be worth monitoring.

Still, Turner is the tight end with the most promise behind Thomas, and when the Commanders want to incorporate height/size as a dimension of its diminutive receiving corps, Turner stands the most to gain.

WR Calvin Austin III, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers' beat writers know that Austin is fast but generally characterize him as an unproven commodity because a preseason injury shelved Austin in August. Based solely on film, I would have drafted Austin ahead of the Giants' WanDale Robinson. The reason is Austin's potential to deliver as more than a slot/gadget threat.

Austin showed signs of a legitimate perimeter game at Memphis, something that Robinson lacked at Kentucky. Austin defeated press coverage in college and earned contested catches that Robinson couldn't.

One might look at the presence of George Pickens, Hakeem Butler, Allen Robinson, and Darnell Washington and conclude that Pittsburgh prefers tall players. Ultimately, there may be something to that thought. However, most teams value a diverse receiving corps that includes speedsters with skill in space.

Diontae Johnson's contract expires at year's end, and Austin could be the dark horse to earn that role in 2024. If the Steelers give Austin legitimate reps as a perimeter option during training camp and the preseason and Austin generates buzz, you better add him quickly.

WR Hakeem Butler, Pittsburgh Steelers

Right now, the Steelers beat writers characterize Butler's chances as low, but there's a path. Translation: Butler is at the end of the depth chart, and the team has a lot of established talents or talents with higher draft capital in the receiver room, but we saw highlights of Butler and think he might be good so rather than our typical pre-camp labeling of him as strictly on the outside looking in at the roster bubble, we're going to hedge a bit early on.

Certainly, the Steelers have a rich receiving corps on the surface. Digging deeper, it may not be as strong as characterized:

• Johnson has been inconsistent during his career, and the Steelers will probably let him walk at year's end.
• Like Julio Jones last year, Robinson may earn love from veterans that he "looks like the same guy" in July, but how that translates to September could be a different story.
• George Pickens made exciting plays as a rookie, but can he take the next step and become an all-around receiver of value?
• Can Darnell Washington stay healthy and impose his will on safeties and linebackers as a gigantic slot option as a move tight end?

WR Charlie Jones, Cincinnati Bengals

Jones has the skills to replace Tyler Boyd next year when Boyd's contract expires.

He has the speed, quickness, and release skills to beat man-to-man coverage in the college game in the short, intermediate, and deep ranges of the field. He has a good repertoire of release skills and should develop enough competence with them to contribute.

Jones sets up opponents during his stems, but his breaks aren’t consistent. He drifts out of breaks one week and has sharper turns the next. He also can get more sink with his weight drop on hard breaks.

A good pass catcher, Jones’ most difficult targets are those that arrive behind his break path and passes that force a full extension of his frame. Otherwise, he is a technically-sound receiver in this area. After the catch, Jones is an efficient mover with small dips and cuts to avoid pursuit and maintain a downhill path.

Jones may have enough speed and explosion to compensate for his smaller stature, but he’ll need to sharpen his release and route skills for it to show up in the production column. If he does, Jones could earn himself a recurring role in an offense that has a meaningful volume of targets.

If the Bengals suffer injuries along the receiving corps this year, Jones could endear himself to Joe Burrow sooner. He should be a camp favorite among beat writers, so monitor his progress.

Again, none of these players are likely heroes due to their projected role with the team, but talent and an unforeseen opportunity could change that fast. Be prepared.