"A Waldman Favorite"
I've seen and heard this phrase a lot in recent years: Footballguys News analysis, Footballguys podcasts, and social media. I first heard Sigmund Bloom use it.
Since then, I've seen "a Waldman Favorite," attached to a variety of names — some of them not even "Waldman Favorite." I think this happens when I've shared scouting analysis publicly that few could find elsewhere, so the assumption was made that they're a favorite.
For example, Deneric Prince is not one of my favorites, but I saw him labeled as such last month. I understand the label because, as my RB17 in the 2023 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Pre-Draft publication, there's potential to emerge from UDFA anonymity. Here's the quick summary of Prince:
The Elevator Pitch: Prince is a promising gap runner with juice and finishing power. He attacks small creases effectively and makes mature decisions that you don't always see from a runner with his speed.
Although there are runs where Prince tries to lean too much on his agility instead of his power, Prince knows how to use his size and contact balance to finish plays.
His pass protection is promising enough to project a role for him in an offense during the next 2-3 seasons and potentially, a productive committee spot if he can improve his pass catching.
It wouldn't be surprising if Prince earns a package of touches in each during his rookie year or at least earns 1-3 touches per game as relief for a current starter. If asked to contribute significant volume as an injury substitute, he can become a viable producer this year—even if he's not a complete player in every aspect of the position at this time.
Prince is absolutely a capable NFL prospect with the potential to develop into a contributor with fantasy value based heavily on opportunity. He's not a favorite of mine.
Miami's UDFA RB Chris Brooks is a much better example of a Waldman Favorite:
Elevator Pitch: A skilled cutback runner with light feet and balance for his 235-pound frame, Brooks can negotiate heavy traffic for chain-moving gains. When he earns an open runway into the secondary, he's capable of forcing defensive backs into considering business decisions that won't go over well with coaches during Monday's film sessions.
Brooks can bounce off hits from all three levels of defenders and he's a violent finisher. If you don't wrap low, you probably don't tackle him on your own.
He has surprising mobility for his frame as a pass receiver and combined with his hand-eye coordination, Brooks can make plays away from his frame on vertical routes. His routes have nuance you often don't see from good wide-receiver prospects. If he shores up his techniques at the catch point, he can become a reliable option out of the backfield.
A durable option who played in 29 of 30 eligible games at Cal before transferring to BYU, Brooks has all the tools to become a contributor in an NFL backfield. The talent and current skill sets are there to stick to an NFL roster and contribute. The potential to refine those skill sets could lead to him becoming a productive committee option -- even a lead back in a system that wants to pound it down smaller opponents' throats.
The potential I see for Brooks to not only become a committee option like Prince but also emerge as a lead back. Obviously, the odds of this happening are low, but it's that difference with ceiling that usually defines a Waldman Favorite.
"Is This Just a New Name for the All-Gut-Check Team?"
No. The All-Gut Check squad is comprised mostly of deep sleepers — overlooked and written-off players who are more talented than the fantasy public gives credit. I'll be sharing my 2023 All-Gut-Check Team before the season begins.
I'll also be sharing a draft plan next week. Today, it's Waldman Favorites — directly from the source — 20 rounds worth, plus a short free agent list. These are players I love this year and find myself drafting a lot.
Waldman Favorites
ADPs are based on UnderDog's reports. The list is made for 12-team PPR formats with one-quarterback lineups. Still, most of what I share applies to most other formats.
Although I've constructed this team so you can conceivably draft it, I'm not taking a majority of these players in every draft. They are favorites who are worth consideration where they are reasonably available. Some I'm valuing higher than their ADP to help you expand your boundaries beyond the ADP box in the way that I've had success with building teams through the draft.
Round 1: Common Sense...Most Of Them
Do you really need a first-round favorite? When you think about it, it's ridiculous to pinpoint one.
If we're taking a historical stance, 9 of the 12 players with a first-round ADP were Waldman Pre-Draft Favorites — Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce, Bijan Robinson, A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and we'll make Nick Chubb the 10th of the first 13. Tyreek Hill, Austin Ekeler, and Stefon Diggs have become everyone's fantasy favorites as well.
If I'm being honest, it's probably better to note my least-favorite value than pick one favorite. That potentially over-valued player is Robinson. There are two others with a little baked-in risk. Hill's pattern of behavior off the field could cost him a game or two, but not enough to knock him out of the first round. Kupp's hamstring injury will lead to an ADP dip, reflecting some caution.
If I had to pick an early-round favorite, it would be Jefferson based on his skill, track record, surrounding talent, and upside. If I were to pick a player based solely on upside, it would be McCaffrey and the potential for usage that could lead to record-breaking production.
If I were to select a runner-up, it would be Chase. He's a great route runner who creates several avenues for fantasy points before and after the catch.
My gut feeling on Travis Kelce is that Kansas City has enough weapons this year to ease some of Patrick Mahomes II' reliance on his elite tight end. This could lead to value that's commensurate with a second- or third-round pick, but I'd hate betting against Kelce, even if it's a bet on a modest decline.
If I'm not drafting in the early part of the round, Brown and Chubb are my targets. Brown is the most versatile receiver on the Eagles' high-powered offense. He's the closest thing to Terrell Owens in this era of the NFL, which means he can beat you with any route and win against zone and man-to-man. He can win with physicality and agility.
Randy Moss noted DeVonta Smith's physicality to deal with contact, and while that's admirable, it's only half of the physicality equation because you must also have the ability to impose your physicality on an opponent. Brown can do this against most opponents. When it comes to production, without the Eagles' receiver room at full strength, Smith would miss Brown more than Brown would miss Smith.
Give me Brown heading into Year Two with Jalen Hurts, who continues to improve as a passer.
If you need me to expound on Chubb, you are new to my work. Here's all you will ever need to see, anywhere, on Chubb's game:
- Nick Chubb Is Incredible
- The Scouting Academy Film Session on Nick Chubb with Matt Waldman
- RSP Sample Pre-Draft Scouting Report on Nick Chubb
I'm more skeptical than my peers about the potential for Jerome Ford to earn enough of Kareem Hunt's past volume to limit Chubb's ceiling. Still, I have been saying for years that if there is an NFL running back with the ability to deliver a 2,000-yard rushing campaign, Chubb is that man. Even if Ford reprises Hunt's production, Chubb remains a safe pick with a non-injury-related fantasy floor that's higher than most player's ceilings.
Round 2: Derrick Henry
With Chubb's ADP at 13, you'll have to consider him in the first round in at least half of your fantasy drafts, so listing him as my Round 2 favorite seems unrealistic, especially in the real world of drafting, where much of the general public still values running backs more than the fantasy industry. If you're entering fantasy drafts with a flexible approach and not dead-set on a singular strategy, an RB-RB opening with Chubb and Henry is appealing to me.
Quick tangent: Every year, I see a handful of fantasy analysts telling the public that "this year" feels like a good year for Zero RB. It's been called Upside-Down Drafting (UDD) at this column well before it was called Zero RB, and before it was either, it was Do the Opposite. Even the Hero RB variant was originally called the First-Round Exception. Personally, I think Zero RB is the best name for it, but the point is that the strategy has been around for a lot longer than the name. The fact that fantasy analysts and individual GMs in their own space discover the approach and give it their own name is a testament to the soundness of the strategy, by whatever name you call it.
As one of the original proponents of the strategy, I used it most often at the back turn of serpentine drafts because I could see the opening picks of my competition and decide whether I'd get the optimal opening for the approach. Still, I've always entered drafts with a flexible approach because if two elite backs are available at the late turn, I'm not turning them away for wide receivers or Travis Kelce.
Henry's ADP is victim to the fantasy community's concerns about his age, the Titans' offensive line, and perhaps, even the addition of rookie Tyjae Spears and the potential for him to cap the elite ceiling of potential Henry has delivered over the years.
The scariest factor is Tennessee's offensive line, but the unit was among the league's worst last year, and Henry still managed a 1,900-yard season with 15 touchdowns as the overall RB4.
You're always going to have competition chirping that too much is working against Henry's potential for success, but if the only variables about this offense that are changing from last year are an upgrade at receiver and 4-5 more games of Ryan Tannehill, then I'm taking my chances.
Henry's rushing yardage and TD totals were the third-highest of his career. The underlying fear from the bean counters is his reduced yards per carry efficiency of 4.4, which was the second consecutive year he was in this range and well below the five yards per carry he managed during a two-year peak during 2019-2020.
Some running back efficiencies are misleading because they count so much on the production of 5-7 teammates. Adam Harstad has told us for years to be very wary of yards per carry. Henry still managed excellent outputs as a runner and receiver.
Henry's receiving totals last year were career highs, which is something we should expect Spears to cut into this year. Even so, Henry's annual receiving output has always been half (at most) of what he delivered last year, so he's not losing a significant chunk of what makes him a viable starter with a high ceiling of production.
You're also drafting Henry as your RB2 with the expectation that he'll at least deliver as a high-end RB2. I'm confident he will. After all, the football public outside of the South has always doubted Henry as an NFL prospect. He was too big, ran too upright, his efficiencies were only good because he could fall forward for five yards in college football, his footwork wasn't good, and he's so big that he'll wear down fast in the league.
Henry's career has proven all of these arguments wrong. At some point, the public realized that he's an elite football player, and elite players with longstanding track records of high-ceiling outputs are exceptions to the rule.
Chubb-Henry is a great presidential ticket in the fantasy football world. Get on board.
Round 3: Lamar Jackson
Rhamondre Stevenson has an early round three ADP, so I can't logically recommend him as THE player here because he's really on the cusp of the second and third round like Chubb at the 1-2 turn. If, for some reason, he falls to the middle or late part of the third round, I'd roll with a Chubb-Henry-Stevenson opening in a heartbeat.
Stevenson has lost ADP value because the Patriots called most of the prominent free agent runners this month. The calls have to do with New England lacking proven depth behind Stevenson that can deliver what Stevenson did last year. It has nothing to do with a lack of confidence in Stevenson as the lead back. If Kevin Harris continues performing the way he has in camp, the Patriots may not sign one of those top names if their top back gets hurt.
A runner-up choice for the RB-RB-RB opening is Jahmyr Gibbs. I love the idea that he's an aspiring Marshall Faulk in role, but I'm not confident he's ready to deliver that value this year. The data may say David Montgomery's touchdown production isn't great, but his skills on film and a much better offensive line in Detroit indicate it's wiser to expect Gibbs to lose TD upside to Montgomery.
Neither of these scenarios is a realistic choice in many formats, so I'm rolling with Jackson, an old favorite whose successful contract negotiation without representation was a massive statement to the football world and its fans that he's a ton smarter and wiser than most have given him credit. Agent Joel Corry wrote at CBS that Jackson "acquitted himself quite nicely," as his own representative.
If Joe Burrow or Josh Allen negotiated this deal as their own agent, football media would have made them Gods. With Jackson, it's stunned silence by comparison.
On the field, Jackson has lacked healthy supporting talent for the past two years. Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman have the upside to help Jackson reach career-highs as a passer, but their injury histories might as well be gas-soaked kindling for the fire that has been raging in the offensive depth chart.
Jackson still has old-reliable Mark Andrews, and Devin Duvernay has shown steady improvement every year. Rookie Zay Flowers may be the team's best receiver by year's end — even if Beckham and/or Bateman stay healthy. Flowers is a skilled contested-catch option and one of the 2-3 best open-field runners in this class. Long-term, Flowers' talents are an upgrade to Marquise Brown.
If Bateman and Beckham stay healthy, Jackson has top-two fantasy value at his position. If they don't, he still has top-five value. If injuries strike at the rate they did the past two years, Jackson will still produce a starter-level points-per-game average even if he can't stay healthy all year because of the breakdowns around him.
As is the case every year, although some like to make it sound like an annual revelation, there's enough value at receiver and tight end that I'll take my shot on Jackson's upside.
Round 4: Christian Kirk/Brandon Aiyuk
I am higher on Kirk than most because most have gone Cuckoo for Coco Puffs over Calvin Ridley. That's cool, Ridley has shown he can deliver top-five production, and we've seen receivers deliver fantasy WR1 value during their first year with new teams — see A.J. Brown.
What I can't recall is a receiver who has returned to this level of play in the first season after missing nearly two years due to a suspension. I'd rather bet on Kirk. He plays multiple positions in the receiving corps, he's underrated at the catch point, and he has a year of built-in rapport with Trevor Lawrence. Ridley's presence will make Kirk's life easier than last year.
Kirk isn't a fantasy WR1 with sizzle, but there's a point in your fantasy GM career where you realize that you're not always going to be drafting in order of WR1-WR2-WR3 for your roster as much as you're drafting for the best producers available in each round. I have Kirk projected for 1,100 yards and 8 scores, which is a repeat of what he delivered last year as fantasy football's 11th-ranked receiver.
I have similar totals for Ridley, who is leaving boards nearly two rounds earlier. Trevor Lawrence has the skills to support 3-4 fantasy starters in the passing game. Kirk will be no worse than the second-most productive option for a quarterback who could take his game to an elite level this year.
Aiyuk's value, like Kirk's, is technically an early fifth-round ADP, but it means he's taken in the fourth round a large percentage of the time. While there's reason for concern that Brock Purdy could be exposed in Year 2 and the passing game suffers, Purdy only delivered one game over 250 yards. The highlight of his rookie year was the consistency as a touchdown-scorer and being smart with the ball for a first-year starter.
Aiyuk delivered top-15 production at his position, and while he had three games with Purdy that weren't particularly strong, the targets were consistently there. All reports out of camp indicate Aiyuk expects to build on his career year. So does the team. Aiyuk is the most well-rounded receiver of the depth chart who can win against press coverage — something Deebo Samuel hasn't done well.
Like Kirk, Aiyuk has a WR1 ceiling, and his floor is not much lower.
Round 5: Tyler Lockett/Jaxon Smith-Njigba
If you took receivers rather than the Chubb-Henry opening, J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers are favorites of mine. Although the hold-in for Dobbins has the media stirred up, he's meeting daily with Todd Monken, so I'm not overly concerned. Akers did wonders with a bad Rams offensive line and a reserve-level quarterback down the stretch of 2022. Either back suits me. In fact, I'd be open to taking one of them here and Aaron Jones in the fourth round if you waited on runners.
If you're seeking a receiver in this range, look to Seattle. Lockett is my first choice. He should have another strong year, even with Smith-Njigba in the mix. Expect them to alternate their alignments and earn plum matchups that lead to big plays. When also considering DK Metcalf, Lockett may have a slightly lower flower, but Lockett also has a higher ceiling due to the versatility of his skillset and the potential ways the Seahawks could use him.
Smith-Njigba has been as advertised in camp. He'll have the Cooper Kupp role in Seattle's offense that wanted to run more 11 personnel in recent years, but injuries prevented them from doing so. This could lead to a high volume of targets, occasional mismatches in the vertical game, and red-zone value.
After 20 years of analysis in this industry, it's still fascinating to see people cite "too many receivers" to earn fantasy value as a reason to be down on a prospect. Don't buy into it.
With a combination of Kirk/Ayiuk and Lockett/Smith-Njigba, you may not have a true WR1, but you'll have two strong WR2s or, as a worst-case (non-injury), a high-end WR2 with a player on the WR2/WR3 cusp in Smith-Njigba.
I'm ok with it because of who is available later.
ROUND 6: Trevor Lawrence
When you take some risks on draft day, such as an RB-RB-RB opening or target players a round earlier than their ADP, it's worth building in opportunities to shore up roster holes later on. Many fantasy GMs make the mistake of trying to avoid roster holes by drafting for positional needs as the draft unfolds rather than drafting for talent.
The benefit of drafting for talent is that you can generate a surplus of value at one position that you'll later sell for what you need at another — and with the added benefit of specifically targeting players you truly value.
Although quarterback isn't always an easy position to trade away in many leagues, it's easier to do before midseason and when you have a pair of top-five options who your competition won't perceive as fluke producers. Lawrence is a great hedge for Jackson as one of the last of the quarterbacks available with a non-injury floor of a mid-range QB1 and top-three ceiling of production at his position.
The addition of Ridley is an upgrade to the aging Marvin Jones. Evan Engram's contract-year performance is rooted in work he did with receiver coach Drew Lieberman that he learned to apply daily to improve his hands, and this will be Lawrence's second year in the Doug Peterson offense. Expecting another statistical jump isn't unrealistic. And if you hate the idea of taking Jackson so early, roll with Lawrence as your first QB, and I'll give you 1-2 options you can get later.
ROUND 7: Treylon Burks
Last year, I was in no way ready to ride this ride, but the approach he has taken since his rough start in rookie mini-camp has me doing a 180 on him. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins as a viable distraction for opposing defenses is another compelling reason.
If you want milquetoast safer with less upside, Brandin Cooks is solid, but I'd rather reach down from Round 8's ADP and take Alvin Kamara or Kadarius Toney. Yes, I'm still taking the chance on Toney because I'm comfortable with missing due to injury. He should be ready early in the year, and the upside he offers remains compelling.
That said, Burks is my WR18, and I can win with three strong WR2s with Chubb-Henry as my starting RB rotation.
ROUND 8: Michael Thomas/Skyy Moore
I can't quit Thomas. When healthy, he's an elite producer in an offense that could explode with this cast of talents. I didn't even include Jimmy Graham, who could have a late-career/final-year swansong of fantasy value.
When healthy last year, Thomas showed he still has it. So far, he has been on schedule with his recovery and participating in camp. This is one of your last shots with decent odds of delivering top-12 (if not top-5) receiver production at this low price.
If you just can't handle the baked-in risk of Thomas' recent injury woes, Moore's odds of fantasy WR1 upside are lower than Thomas' because the Chiefs have a wealth of talent, and despite all the camp love for Moore, Toney remains the WR1 on paper and should be ready by September.
There has also been a historically big gap between the Chiefs' top two options in the passing game and the third wheel. Moore is currently in the role of the third wheel. His saving grace for fantasy GMs is Andy Reid's insistence that Moore learns all three receiver roles as a rookie. Moore is that redundancy plan for a Toney disaster.
I also like the Chiefs' depth at receiver this year — enough that this could be the season that Mahomes spreads the ball around more than in years past. Last year, the Chiefs said they would spread the ball around more, but I don't think the offense was ready to execute on that vision. This year could be different with the addition of Richie James and Rashee Rice and the emergence of a healthy Justyn Ross. All of these players are more versatile than Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling.
Moore has a higher floor than Thomas because injury isn't a historical concern. His ceiling may not be as high, but the odds are strong that he's in WR2-WR3 territory.
ROUND 9: AJ Dillon/Zach Charbonnet
Dillon is a physical back with decision-making smarts and subtle movement skills between the tackles who can also catch the ball. He's an underrated talent in an unfortunate career situation because, by the time he's in a position to earn a gig as a lead back, the market will likely keep Dillon in a committee as the second banana. Still, an Aaron Jones injury would provide Dillon an opportunity to prove he's a legitimate featured talent stuck in Green Bay.
Charbonnet is in a similar scenario in Seattle with Ken Walker. There is nothing wrong with Walker as a talent that dictated the Seahawks to draft Charbonnet as much as there was a lack of startable talent behind Walker for the offense to thrive. Charbonnet's style and talent is best summed up as a middle-to-upper-middle-class Arian Foster. Give Charbonnet a legitimate starter workload, and he has fantasy RB1 upside.
I prefer Dillon slightly more as a talent, but prefer Seattle's offense with Geno Smith than Dillon's with Jordan Love. Either one is usable depth regardless of the health of their running mate.
ROUND 10: Dalton Kincaid
If Trevor Lawrence is your first quarterback because you couldn't imagine taking any quarterback as early as I recommended Lamar Jackson, Geno Smith is arguably the last of the high-ceiling/high-floor fantasy quarterbacks left at this point of fantasy drafts. If you rolled with Jackson/Lawrence, it's time to target Kincaid.
As I told RSP subscribers in May and reiterated it a few weeks ago, you have to get over the idea that Kincaid is listed as a tight end. Otherwise, you're abiding by the history of rookie tight end production that begins and ends with Mike Ditka as the only player who played with his hand in the dirt and delivered elite fantasy value during his first year. That hand in the dirt is the key factor.
Kyle Pitts is the closest player to reach Ditka's heights as a rookie. He spent most of that year in a two-point stance. Rob Gronkowski, Jeremy Shockey, and Hunter Henry also saw a fair bit of time as detached receivers. Pitts may be labeled a tight end, but his usage is close to a receiver in the same way it is for Darren Waller.
The Bills have Dalton Knox to play the primary role of hand-in-the-turf tight end, which leaves the majority of work for Kincaid as a detached receiver. Kincaid has Travis Kelce's upside, long-term — a big, quick, and agile primary wide receiver with a tight end label. As a wide receiver in a tight end's body but in a detached role, it's wiser to expect Kincaid's rookie floor to be in range of early-round rookie receivers.
That range of production is often between 500-700 yards for a weekly contributor. The better performers earn 700-900 yards. The top rookie performers in history reach the heights of 1,000-1,400 yards.
I expect Kincaid's floor this year to fall into the territory of 500-700 yards and his ceiling to be 700-900 yards. Either way, that's startable fantasy production for a player with a tight end label, possibly top-three production.
I'll take that shot on upside on a top talent with an elite quarterback and an elite primary receiver who can generate mismatches for the rookie.
ROUND 11: Chigoziem Okonkwo
If you took Smith as your second quarterback, need a tight end, and Dalton isn't available, Okonkwo is an excellent — and conventionally — a safer choice. The same answer applies if you want two tight ends for your roster and took Kincaid. Okonkwo is more of an Aaron Hernandez type of option when considering his usage because the Titans use him a lot from the backfield in addition to a fair number of targets as a detached option.
When Ryan Tannehill had weaponry that was remotely close in talent to what he now has in Tennessee — a rarity — he supported that talent and delivered starter fantasy QB production. Okonkwo, Burks, and DeAndre Hopkins are the basis for Tennessee's potential to stretch the field horizontally and vertically on any play. Look for Okonwko to earn some great matchups that lead to big plays as well as a steady dose of targets on screens and RPOs.
ROUND 12: Adam Thielen
After missing 13 games between 2019-2021, Thielen played an entire 17-game season in 2022. Although he hasn't been the 1,300-yard guy he was during his peak years of 2017-18 for quite a while, He has managed 65-74 receptions and between 716-925 yards during the past three years.
There's also the matter of 30 touchdowns during that same period — 5 more than the first 6 years of his career.
Thielen's route running, hands, and effort to maintain his conditioning as he ages are all reasons that he's worth considering in the back half of drafts. Bryce Young needs a reliable veteran who can be a second set of eyes on the field. Thielen has always excelled at working the scramble drill, which complements Young perfectly.
Jonathan Mingo, Terrace Marshall, and D.J. Chark all have more upside, but their floors are all, respectively, much lower than the aging Thielen. Expect Thielen to be Young's safety blanket and red-zone leader in the passing game.
ROUND 13: Alec Pierce/Sam LaPorta
If Okonkwo was your first tight end and you want a second option, I'd take the chance on Sam LaPorta for similar reasons I love Kincaid. LaPorta was the No.2 tight end on my pre-draft board in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio because of his match-up skills as a detached receiver.
These talents are translating early in camp. While there's a large gap between athletic displays of summer camp and the mental adjustments that are required for regular-season production, I'm confident LaPorta will bridge it.
If you already drafted two tight ends or are willing to roll with one, Pierce is the play. A contested-catch vertical threat at Cincinnati who has refined his body to win against the physicality of veteran pros, Pierce is the intermediate and vertical weapon in this offense. If Anthony Richardson delivers remotely at the level he did at Florida last year, Pierce will have WR3 upside, perhaps more if they connect enough on big vertical plays. if Gardner Minshew has to take over, Pierce will thrive in the intermediate game and offer value on the cusp of WR2/WR3 based on volume.
ROUND 14: Jerome Ford
You want the redundancy option in Cleveland for Nick Chubb. You also get the potential for Kareem Hunt's volume paired with Chubb if the coaching staff chooses to go this route. Ford is talented enough to challenge for that role and made enough progress that we'll likely see a lower-profile free agent signed to back Ford if Chubb gets hurt for any period of type shorter than six weeks.
Round 15: Tyjae Spears/Jayden Reed
Taking Spears has less to do with you having Henry than it does with Spears being a breathtaking talent. Spears, Tank Dell, and Zay Flowers are the three best open-field runners of this rookie class.
Spears may be the physical opposite of Henry in dimensions and style, but he's an excellent runner between the tackles who wins with a style more reminiscent of Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. He also catches the ball with the skills of these two backs, and his route-running is good enough for him to earn a significant role on passing downs as the season unfolds.
Spears has league-winning value if Henry gets hurt.
My 7th-ranked receiver pre-draft in the RSP, Reed earned a high grade of immediate starter — capable of being in the lineup immediately and having a large role from the beginning. Reed reminded me of former Jets receiver Laveranues Coles with the upside to develop into a route runner on par with Stefon Diggs.
Reed has the skills to learn all three positions in the NFL. He's slated to start for the Packers in the slot, but if Christian Watson cannot stay healthy, Reed is the most capable receiver to assume the primary role in Green Bay.
Reed wins difficult catches in contested scenarios, and he's a skilled open-field option. Not many starters at this position are available this late. Being a rookie and working with a first-year starter is a big reason for this 16th-round value. Still, you recognize the opportunity and embrace the unknown of Reed's immediate acclimation and Love's development.
Round 16: Hunter Renfrow
Zamir White is in this range and a popular pick. He has a sledgehammer mentality as a runner without much scalpel. That said, he's fast and has the potential to develop into a competent pass protector. If Josh Jacobs holds out for the year or gets traded, look for White and Ameer Abdullah to be the 1-2 punch, with Brittain Brown an option to keep an eye on as the possible third option.
White is the player to draft based on opportunity; Fournette is the player to draft based on talent. If Fournette joins a team, he'll be an immediate contributor in a gap-oriented scheme. Until last year, there were few teams that ran a lot of gap plays. NFL defenses made gap plays more desirable when they played a lot of two-deep safeties to take away the vertical passing game.
Fournette is a more desirable option for a lot of teams, especially because he has proven his worth as a receiver. The Colts, Patriots, Browns, and a dozen other teams could be a fit for Fournette if there's a need for an emergency starter.
That said, I'd rather roll with Hunter Renfrow as the best player available. After all, we're in the final rounds of the draft. It's time for extreme upside.
Last year was a disappointment for Renfrow, and he was the subject of offseason trade rumors. It didn't help that the Raiders added DeAndre Carter II to the mix. Renfrow is one of the smarter receivers in the league and a skilled route runner who should mesh well with Jimmy Garoppolo, a quarterback trained in Josh McDaniels' system and likes to get rid of the ball well before anyone damages his made-for-TV face.
In contrast to Derek Carr, who was more willing to err on the side of going deep for Davante Adams, Garoppolo is more likely to err on the of the quick-hitting target underneath to his Amendola-Welker-Edelman archetype. At this point of the draft, you're getting another starter who underwhelmed but has the talents and offense to rebound in a massive way.
This is especially the case with Darren Waller and Mack Hollins gone and McDaniels bringing in Patriots' retreads Jakobi Meyers and Phillip Dorsett. Meyers is worthwhile, but I still have doubts with the summer narrative that he's going to surprise as a true perimeter receiver. He'll be startable in fantasy leagues as a flex, but I think he'll be the third-most productive option behind Adams and Renfrow. Consider the history of the Patriots' offense, and that idea holds up.
Renfrow's potential volume gives him a viable top-15 fantasy ceiling. Considering the proclivities of Garoppolo under pressure and the Raiders' offensive line, Renfrow could be the leading option if Adams disappoints.
Round 17: Steelers Defense/Justin Tucker
You have to take a defense and a kicker, and the Steelers are a solid unit with the upside to deliver Tier 1 value. You're not the first to take a defense, but you're also strategically selecting one of the better units available. Defense in Pittsburgh is an expectation, it's the DNA of the town's football mentality.
The outside linebackers are excellent pass rushers, and this is a physical crew of safeties if the ex-pats from Atlanta can hold up — they had trouble doing so in my town.
If you have another defense in mind, roll with Tucker as your kicker. He's still among the best scorers, and there are plenty of intriguing upside plays available during the final two rounds where you'll take one.
Round 18: Justin Tucker/Justyn Ross/Richie James
Roll with Tucker if you took the Steelers' defense.
If you decide to wait on tight end until the late rounds and don't mind playing the Rent-A-Defense/Kicker game during the season, then Tyler Conklin, Trey McBride, and Jake Ferguson are all capable talents with strong receiving skills. Conklin offers the best upside as a one-on-one matchup against defensive backs when detached from the formation. McBride has the best all-around game but the worst quarterback room, and he's still contending with an aging Zach Ertz. Ferguson isn't a field-stretcher, but he's versatile and fits the Dalton Schultz-Jason Witten style of tight end who finds open zones as the check-down and red-zone weapon for Dak Prescott.
I prefer the combo of Kincaid and Okonkwo or at least one of these options, plus one of these 18th-round picks. If you are willing to go late-round and hope to strike gold, more power to you.
If you've been following this draft closely and can take a player other than a kicker, defense, or tight end, my choices are the Chiefs' receiver depth chart. Ross and James have the skills to deliver starter production if called upon. On X/Twitter this week, I noted that Ross, James, and Rashee Rice were not players you draft as much as players you acquire after the teams that drafted them got impatient during the season and cut their losses. This is true for leagues with rosters of 12-15 rounds. For a 20-round draft, they're absolutely draftable.
Ross has the most upside because he can play either position on the perimeter, makes difficult catches, and runs good routes for these roles. He has worked with Patrick Mahomes II all offseason to develop a rapport. I've written enough about him here.
James may not have had familiarity with Mahomes in the Chiefs' system until this spring and summer, but he worked with Mahomes' pre-draft preparation. I've always been a fan of James' game. Last year, he was my spring prediction as the receiver most likely to surprise in New York.
James will begin the season as a return specialist and reserve slot option. If needed, he can thrive in the slot or as a flanker. Having multiple paths to opportunity makes him a worthwhile early-season stash.
Both players will likely return to your free-agent pool at some point during the season if they aren't playing early on. Don't take that as an indictment of their talent. Keep them high on your running list of waiver-wire speed dials.
Round 19: Zach Evans
At this stage, I'm rolling with talent, and Evans was one of the three most talented running backs in this year's draft. He didn't earn the commensurate draft capital for his talent because of labels that he was immature (more below), and his metrics didn't look promising as an athlete or a consistent producer. He also weighed in at 202 pounds at the NFL Combine when listed at 212 during his college career.
All of this flies in the face of statistical models for successful NFL running backs, which could scare off the analytics silo of draft analysis.
Evans' quixotic recruiting journey began with him signing with Georgia and, after several developments, ended with him at TCU, a school not on the radar to sign him. In addition, he reportedly had multiple run-ins with his high school coaches. Add to these tales a transfer from TCU to Ole Miss that ended with TCU earning a National Championship season with Kendre Miller in the backfield and Evans splitting time with freshman sensation Quinshon Judkins, and Evans' decision-making appears suspect.
This will scare off the silo of football reporters and analysts who deal in narratives.
When looking solely at his film, Evans is every bit as capable of developing into a productive NFL starter as an option in this class. He could wind up the best back in the RSP's top tier if his acceleration is even better than I have it ranked and his ball security improves on Sundays.
The biggest questions are his ability to play well with others and his injury history. Evans broke team rules twice as a high school senior, and he missed his team's state championship game because of refusing to give up his cell phone the night before per team rules. There's speculation that Evans' recruiting journey spiraled out of control because he lacked strong guidance after his grandfather passed in the fall of 2018.
Evans has been a good student. He delivered a 3.75 GPA as a freshman at TCU, earning Academic All-Rookie honors. According to a TCU football analysis site, the concerns about Evans are “character assassination” and “completely unfair.”
“Evans was nothing but a great teammate and student by all accounts, vocal on the sideline in games he didn't play and excelling in the classroom. He's a good kid who overcame some maturity issues at a young age and leveraged his worth to maximize his opportunities.”
Considering that Evans mishandled his own recruitment after the only strong parent figure in his life passed the year prior but managed a strong academic record and his off-field issues were not remotely criminal or substance-oriented, the conclusions drawn about Evans are superficial if there's nothing else lurking beneath the surface.
Former head coach Gary Patterson knew TCU stood to lose up to 30 players if the school didn't figure out NIL deals and that Evans was one of them. If Evans didn't have the recruiting saga in high school, this would have been a non-issue.
My biggest concern of everything mentioned is his injury history, and that's the case with every running back entering the league. It means he's a potential steal if all of these silos of football analysts influence NFL and fantasy decision-makers and lead them astray.
Not much has been said about Evans this summer, but most of what's said about runners during the summer lacks meaning until we see them in games where there is no restrictions with hitting. Considering the depth chart in L.A., Evans is the best candidate to take over for Cam Akers if Akers gets hurt.
It's also notable that the Rams signed Sony Michel, only for him to retire soon after. I thought Michel was signed to be a coach on the field and perhaps an option who could deliver 4-6 touches per game. The fact that the Rams haven't signed a known veteran since Michel's retirement indicates one of two things: L.A. likes Evans and the passing down backs (Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers) enough not to sign another back, or L.A. wants to give these backs enough reps to assess their needs for the depth chart and sign a veteran at the beginning of the season to save money.
Evans is arguably the best pure runner in this class, similar to the Khalil Herbert being an excellent runner but not well-rounded in the rest of the position's demands upon entering the league. Evans' ceiling makes him a worthwhile late-round pick.
ROUND 20: Cleveland Defense/Tank Dell/Allen Robinson II
If you need a defense, Cleveland should be a big-play unit. With Gus Bradley and Jim Schwartz as coordinators, expect this team to deliver a lot of pressure with blitz packages to complement the pass-rushing dominance that will be the combo of Myles Garrett and ZaDarius Smith.
I'm betting this will include pressure from Grant Delpit, who made significant strides last year as the player that I thought would become a Charles Woodson-like talent. The secondary is good enough that Schwartz's influence should lead to a lot of big plays. Cleveland may be a boom-bust defense this year with this approach, but I'll take my chances.
If you already took a defense, Tank Dell and Allen Robinson are both slot receivers who can also win on the perimeter. Both receivers possess great quickness and leaping ability. Dell is a great open-field runner and has a rapport with rookie QB C.J. Stroud.
Robinson has had a strong camp and is well worth a pick this late because of his ceiling. Go ahead, scoff and call the career death for Robinson, but it's silly to do that with a 20th-round selection. You've got my respect for your stones if you say that about a seventh-round pick.
Free Agent Short List
These players should be on your shortlist as injuries, suspensions, or other surprises unfold. Most of these 15 players are worth late-round consideration as well.
Michael Wilson: A Michael Thomas clone in route skills, physical dimensions, and athletic ability. If he shores up catch inconsistencies, he could star.
Corey Davis: He has never emerged to expectation, but he's still a contributor who will finally play with a top quarterback.
Keaontay Ingram: The Cardinals signed Marlon Mack as a speed change of pace, and he already got hurt. Ingram was still the No.2 and has talents similar to Kareem Hunt.
Kenyan Drake: Fits the Colts' gap-oriented system and could help you early in the year if you're desperate.
Puka Nacua: Think of Nacua as a young Golden Tate type who wins after the catch. Inconsistent hands but addressable.
Cedric Tillman: Can he take over for Amari Cooper if there's an injury? Enough to have fantasy value. Can he take over for Donovan Peoples-Jones? Probably enough to replace or add to Peoples-Jones' expected value.
Marvin Jones Jr: Still a good route runner who can work the slot and flanker roles in a high-powered offense. Capable bye-week player, at least.
Greg Dortch: A forgotten man after emerging last season as a capable fantasy reserve with starter-caliber weeks. He could do the same this year.
Darnell Washington: He's capable of becoming a young Jimmy Graham in the receiving game. If Pat Freiermuth gets hurt or the Steelers opt for a lot more two-tight-end packages at some point of the season, Washington could have fantasy value.
Melvin Gordon III: Still capable, even if his age doesn't make him sought-after as a starter. He ran a lot of gap-blocking schemes at Wisconsin and will fit well in Baltimore if needed.
DErnest Johnson: Tank Bigsby is getting a lot of love during the less meaningful period of summer RB evaluation. Johnson is a proven passing-down option who may not match Bigsby's physicality, but he's a good decision-maker. I can't say I'm sold on Bigsby in that department yet. Johnson could emerge when the training camp sizzle of youngsters fades.
Kayshon Boutte: Think of Boutte as a mix of Jarvis Landry and Robert Woods in playing style and athletic ability. The disappointment of him not being the next Ja'Marr Chase was silly. Boutte is having a good second half of camp, and I'm still bullish on his long-term potential that could pop earlier.
Devin Duvernay: Neither Rashod Bateman nor Odell Beckham, Jr is the paragon of durability. Duvernay is a steady contributor with big-play skills and versatility who can deliver match-up value, if not more, when called upon.
Jimmy Graham: I am open to the possibility that Graham can have a role that generates productive fantasy value as a player featured inside the opponent's 40 yard-line. I'm not drafting him, but I'll monitor how he's used early in the year.
Denzel Mims: Coaches like team players. They don't see a team player when an individual complains about playing time in the media and negotiates their way out of town. It's why it's notable that Dan Campbell praised Mims' willingness to learn special teams and his hustle in practice. I believe Mims was never a cancer to a team as much as he was a pick with high draft capital who got passed over by a new regime and didn't want to let that quietly sink his career. Mims may not be the starter in place of Jameson Williams, but he'll get into the rotation to vie for additional playing time.
Again, you can follow this draft plan closely or use this as a reference for specific players whose touts are favorable to you. Good luck!