SkyScrapers And Boom-Bust
This is a recent exchange I had with a friend of mine — a scientist with an intellect beyond reproach — who experienced an epiphany while we were driving I-85 South with the Atlanta skyline coming into view. It began with him breaking a brief silence between us with laughter.
"What?"
"I'm an idiot..."
"Well, you are our idiot, and we love you for it. What are you an idiot about this time?"
"I'm rolling up on 40, and I just realized why they call tall buildings skyscrapers."
After we both laughed for about two minutes, I couldn't help making fun of him.
"I realize your work will quite possibly advance humanity, but I have to check . . . you know the pedal on the left with the horizontal rectangle is the brake, right?"
"Yes, and I can't even fault you for the question, given what you just witnessed."
Most of you reading this knew why tall buildings are called skyscrapers before this moment and also have an intuitive grasp of what defines a Boom-Bust prospect. In case you're that special intellectual talent who thought Oblivian was a South American country east of Chile known for tin, silver, lithium, copper, and cocaine, a boom-bust prospect has both a high ceiling and low floor built into his performance potential based on his past history.
Boom-bust prospects scare many fantasy GMs, but they can be pivotal contributors to championship squads. There are different types of boom-bust performances.
Many of you are thinking week-to-week volatility — strong producers overall who aren't consistent scorers to their year-end average from one week to the next. For this feature, boom-bust is the overall production for the year — by year's end, it has the potential to be great or ugly.
The Investment Strategy for Boom-Bust Fantasy Prospects
It begins with assessing your comfort with risk. These are questions you should ask yourself:
- Are you comfortable with drafting players well above or below their average draft position during the first half of fantasy drafts?
- Do you attempt more than 3-5 trades per season in a league?
- In rounds 1-10, do you draft more players with a high floor and lower ceiling than their peers in the same range or more players with a lower floor and higher ceiling?
- In rounds 11-20, do you draft more players with a high floor and lower ceiling than their peers in the same range or more players with a lower floor and higher ceiling?
- Do you avoid rookies with significant pre-draft value because they are rookies?
- Do you avoid first-year starters with bullish ADPs because they have little, if any, track record of fantasy production?
- Are you aggressive with free-agent bidding dollars?
- Are you active on the waiver wire?
- Do you avoid players coming off a season-ending injury?
- Do you avoid players with a previous history of injuries that have cost them stretches of playing time?
This isn't an exhaustive list of questions for assessing your comfort with risk, but the more of these you answer with "yes," the higher your comfort with risk. The more you answered with "no," the lower your comfort with risk.
Just because you are comfortable/uncomfortable with risk doesn't mean you should always embrace/avoid it. If you've been successful with building winners based on your comfort level with risk when acquiring players (this does not include setting lineups, that's a different form of risk management), then continue along your path.
If you've recently learned that you can trace your losses to your risk tolerance damaging your overall team building, it's time for some guidelines or training wheels to help you find your balance and make productive decisions. The guidelines below are for any draft in terms of round length.
Guidelines for Low-Risk GMs (Recommended for Beginners)
- No boom-bust prospects during the first third of your draft.
- No more than 1-2 boom-bust prospects during the second third of your draft.
- No rookies within the first seven rounds of a draft.
- No players returning from a season-ending injury within the first 12 rounds of your draft.
- No veterans signed with a new team after August within the first 15 rounds of your draft.
Guidelines for Medium-Risk GMs (Recommended for Most of You)
- No more than one boom-bust prospect during the first quarter of your draft.
- No more than one boom-bust prospect during the second quarter of your draft.
- No rookies within the first five rounds of a draft.
- Only one player returning from a season-ending injury within the first 8-10 rounds of your draft.
- No veterans signed with a new team after August within the first 12 rounds of your draft.
Guidelines for High-Risk GMs (Recommended for the Experienced Players)
- No more than an even distribution of boom-bust and high-floor/high-ceiling players during the first half of your draft.
If you're going high-risk, you don't really need guidelines. A 50/50 balance with safer players on paper during the first half of the draft is wise because you don't want to make your job that much harder to rebuild via trades and free agency if you miss on multiple boom-bust options. Still, if you decide to go big or go home, you're obviously prepared to go home if things don't work out.
The 2023 Boom-Bust Fantasy Squad
Here's my list of the biggest boom-bust options heading into the 2023 season. I'm basing on the analysis I put into my player projections. I'll share the current projection with each player and the potential range of highs/lows I see for each option based on factors such as surrounding talent, injury history, the player's development track, etc.
These players are listed in no particular order. I will not be updating my thoughts from this article as rankings and ADPs change. You can reference my rankings page for updates and commentary.
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Current ADP: RB3 (8th overall)
Matt's Ranking: RB13/24th Overall
Projected Statistics:
- 279 Attempts, 1,357 rushing yards, 4.86 Y/Att, 9 TDs
- 29 Targets, 25 Receptions, 137 Yards, 5.5 Y/Att, 1 TD
- 234.4 Fpts (PPR)
Why Robinson is Boom-Bust: Cordarrelle Patterson is old for his position but has little tread, and he's two years removed from a huge season as a runner and receiver. Patterson and second-year runner Tyler Allgeier have the receiving chops to limit Robinson's ceiling of usage.
Yes, the Falcons have lined up Robinson at a variety of positions this summer, but once the season begins, how many of those possibilities for Robinson will actually be in play for him and not for Patterson? How much will second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder be able to exploit during his first full year as an NFL starter?
If Robinson earns 40-50 catches and 5-7 percent of these targets are vertical plays, he could deliver 300-500 yards in the passing game and 2-3 more scores. That's another 47-73 fantasy points in PPR formats that put Robinson into top-three territory at his position.
I'm not a fan of projecting a rookie at his ceiling of potential, and that's what I believe the industry is doing. I'm especially cautious about doing so because Patterson and Allgeier are proven producers who can limit the upside of Robinson's rookie workload.
Arthur Smith was the Titans' TE coach in 2016-17, so he had no voice about Derrick Henry's rookie year workload. Still, he was part of a team that limited Henry's workload to 123 touches, 627 yards from scrimmage, and 5 touchdowns. Henry's totals from his first two seasons:
- 31 games played out of a possible 32
- 286 touches, 1,234 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns
- 32 targets, 24 receptions, 273 yards, and 1 receiving score.
During his final two years as a pro, DeMarco Murray earned the majority of touches in 2016 and split touches with Henry in 2017. Murray earned 1,664 yards and 12 scores from scrimmage in 2016 despite Henry's draft capital.
It's unlikely that Smith follows suit with Henry and gives the majority of work to Patterson and Allgeier. Patterson may not have a lot of mileage as a runner, but he's old by running back standards and banged up last year. Allgeier is reliable as an outside runner but not explosive or as adept between the tackles.
The worst-case scenario for a healthy Robinson will be the receiving totals projected above and Patterson and Allegeier accounting for a greater total of the ground game — splitting enough with Robinson in a three-way committee that limits Robinson to 750-900 yards rushing, roughly 55-65 percent of what I have currently projected.
That's a big swing, and if this also cuts into Robinson's touchdown totals, we're talking about 100 fantasy points deducted from where I currently have him as RB13. That's flex-play territory for fantasy backs and a significant boom-bust dynamic for a talented player on a team with enough existing talent to limit his workload if needed.
There's a realistic argument it will be needed: Ridder's inexperience may call for Arthur Smith to use the most reliable blockers on passing downs. Robinson may prove he's that guy immediately, but most rookies don't. If Robinson also has the typical growing pains that early-round rookie runners display as decision-makers who take too many game-management risks, we could see limited red-zone volume as well.
On the other hand, Robinson could play to that RB3 ceiling that the consensus projects for him. Considering how early one has to take Robinson, it's a big swing for a rookie runner when the swing does not even account for injury.
TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Current ADP: TE6/68th Overall
Matt's Ranking: TE10/87th Overall
Projected Statistics:
- 100 targets
- 48 receptions, 635 yards, 6 TDs
- 147.5 Fpts (PPR)
Why Pitts is Boom-Bust: One of the most physically and technically gifted pass catchers at the move TE role in recent drafts, Pitts delivered as a rookie but was a massive disappointment without taking his knee injury into account. Most want to blame Arthur Smith, the same offensive mind who got 448 yards and 8 touchdowns from journeyman Jonnu Smith in 2020.
Ultimately, Smith may one day earn all the public criticism that's thrown his way. Until then, let's also consider that Pitts will be working with his third different quarterback in as many years as a pro. It's probably a good idea to give an aging Matt Ryan more credit for his prowess than Marcus Mariota or a young Ridder.
Pitts had 2 games of clear fantasy value last year after delivering 10 as a rookie. As we've seen in the past, receiving talent doesn't matter without quarterback talent. Ryan could read the length and width of the field. Smith knew Mariota could not read the field as quickly and accurately as Ryan and schemed the offense away from what Ryan did best to protect Mariota while accessing Mariota's legs.
Most fantasy GMs expected at least 800-1,000 yards and 5-7 touchdowns in 2022 after Pitts earned 1,035 yards and 1 score as a rookie, but they didn't consider the differences between Ryan and Mariota would be that great. Ridder has the potential to develop into a full reader of the field, but whether he does this year is a big question mark.
My projections for Pitts are more than double his 2022 campaign, and that's probably a more realistic starting point for framing expectations with a young quarterback than the 1,000-yard campaign with Ryan. Unfortunately, many will place too much weight on Pitts' elite athletic ability when forming expectations rather than placing enough weight on the skills and experience of the quarterback.
If Ridder is competent, Pitts should deliver to my expectations. If Ridder has a strong second year and performs like a fantasy starter, Pitts could meet the loftier expectations of the public. If Ridder isn't competent, we could see another disappointing season for Pitts.
Considering what we've seen with young quarterback prospects during their first three years in the league, every outcome mentioned is in play for Pitts, and none of them are remote possibilities.
RB J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Current ADP: RB19/52nd Overall
Matt's Ranking: RB20/53rd Overall
Projected Statistics:
- 196 carries, 1,055 yards, 7 rushing TDs
- 17 targets, 16 receptions, 126 yards, 2 receiving TDs
- 188.1 Fpts (PPR)
Why Dobbins is Boom-Bust: There's a list of reasons, unfortunately. He's beginning training camp on PUP after seemingly working through a difficult knee injury in 2022 that cost him the entire 2021 campaign. He's seeking a long-term contract that's based more on his talent and glimpses of on-field excellence in the pros rather than proven and reliable production in the box score.
The Ravens also have a new offensive coordinator and scheme that could veer away from the power running game as a top priority. At the same time, the new offense is an opportunity for Dobbins to become a high-volume part of the passing game. Dobbins average more than 10 yards per catch during his final two seasons at Ohio State and looked like an NFL receiver out of the backfield against Clemson during the final game of his collegiate career.
When considering the totality of Dobbins' talents and potential opportunities in this Ravens offense, Dobbins could easily deliver 35-45 catches, 300-500 yards, and 3-5 scores in addition to 800-1,000 yards rushing. He could also find himself pushed out of the plans or forced into a timeshare that cuts in half the projected rushing totals shown above.
Then there's the volatility of Dobbins' scoring potential on the ground. For the past two years, Lamar Jackson has had a combined five rushing touchdowns compared to seven rushing scores in 2020. The biggest differences between 2020 and 2021-22 have been Jackson's health and the caliber of the Ravens' offensive line.
If Jackson and the line remain healthy, there's a valid argument that Jackson's healthy touchdown totals as a rusher will return and at the expense of the Ravens' running backs. However, let's not forget that when Jackson earned 7 scores in 2020, Dobbins earned 9 on 134 carries, and Dobbins and Edwards combined for 15 rushing scores.
Sure, Jackson kept Dobbins and/or Edwards from elite scoring totals but a combined 15 scores from your starting rotation at running back — 17 if you include the aging Mark Ingram who was a distance third to Dobbins and Edwards in workload — is still valuable fantasy production. It wasn't a one-or-the-other scenario.
A spread offense in the red zone could lead to more rushing scores for Jackson, which is what some anticipate will be a part of Todd Monken's offense. Monken, who has also been an architect of quality ground games at the University of Georgia and with the Cleveland Browns, could go heavier in the red zone.
Monken got 1,772 yards and 8 touchdowns from scrimmage from Nick Chubb in 2019 and another 643 yards and 5 scores from Kareem Hunt after an 8-game suspension.
Dobbins easily has 1,300-yard talent as a rusher and the upside to deliver 1,800 yards from scrimmage. If he doesn't negotiate his way out of a role and can stay healthy, my current projections for Dobbins as a 1,200-yard and 9-touchdown performer from scrimmage could be too low.
This is a prove-it year for Dobbins. If thinking cynically, Ravens will probably want to give him the workload to maximize what they haven't gotten from his rookie deal and move on. Optimistically, they may see this year as an opportunity for Dobbins to demonstrate his long-term value for a new contract.
If Dobbins earns a legitimate workload as a lead back, he could deliver top-five production at the running back position. He averaged 14 carries and 99 yards from weeks 14-17 after returning from a midseason cleanup surgery for his knee.
Our news wire at Footballguys reported the story that Dobbins has only carried the ball only 15 times in a game once during his NFL career. However, he's also carried the ball 13-14 times in 9 of the 23 games he's been on the field.
Whenever he's earned at least 13 carries in a game, Dobbins has averaged 14 carries, 93 yards, and .67 touchdowns per game. While the headline says, "Big Workloads Rare for J.K. Dobbins," the context is missing.
Still, Dobbins' health and his role in the Ravens' new offensive approach are two variables with a wide range of outcomes. He could be a 1,800-yard back rivaling Austin Ekeler but with more of his talent on the ground. He could deliver 1,000-1,200 yards from scrimmage as a competent fantasy starter but nothing more. Or, the Ravens could phase Dobbins out of the offense and limit him to a role that only generates 500-700 yards from scrimmage.
WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Current ADP: WR43/100th Overall
Matt's Ranking: WR37/77th Overall
Projected Statistics:
- 110 targets
- 70 receptions, 945 yards, 4 TDs
- 188.5 Fpts (PPR)
Why Sutton is Boom-Bust: My 22nd-ranked receiver in this class in the pre-draft version of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Sutton's athletic ability was never a question, but his technical skills and attention to detail were. He were some of my thoughts on his future fantasy outlook:
Let’s get this out of the way. If you want an evaluation of Courtland Sutton that will help you decide where to realistically rate him based on the perceptions everyone else has, I could compromise my grade and give him an 84.15 Depth of Talent Score. This would place Sutton in a tie with No. 7 receiver Keke Coutee and put him within a whisper of the top five options on the board.
Go ahead and make Sutton your No. 7 option. It will make some of you feel okay about reaching for him as the third, fourth, or fifth receiver taken in your fantasy draft.
I even believe that Sutton—given the opportunity he’ll likely earn as an early Day 2 pick—will see the field, make some plays, and deliver production that justifies the early pick. The ability and potential are there.
If you’re that kind of pragmatist—and I encourage you to be in fantasy football—Sutton should be among your top seven receivers. The beauty of owning my own publication is that I am not kowtowed by editors or publishers into conforming or delivering a hot take without context to show it’s really not that steamy...
...It means I’m not glossing over flaws. Sutton has big enough flaws that in a class where the margin of the talent pool is narrow, his ranking is surprisingly low.
However, his Depth of Talent Score is a respectable 80.75, which is in the range of players capable of contributing immediately and developing into starter. It’s a borderline grade but qualifies nonetheless. One of the biggest problems with Sutton is inconsistency, and it appears that effort is the source. I don’t like to question effort, but I’ve studied too many games of Sutton’s where I’ve written something to the effect of “he looks slow doing ‘x’ today.”
I’ve written this at some point about his releases, routes, receiving, ball carrying, and blocking—and often for different games in 2016 and 2017. Jonathan Baldwin comes to mind as a player who excited many in the draft community, but the effort was a question mark...
...When Sutton is on, he looks like an aspiring Brandon Marshall with more quickness. When he’s off, he’s disappointing.
Barring one 1,100-yard season, Sutton has performed like an immediate contributor and borderline starter, but little more. Quarterback, coaching, and scheme changes are all parts of a valid argument to give Sutton the benefit of the doubt.
Yet, learning that Sutton only began diving into Michael Thomas' tape late this spring and early summer when he knew his future role months earlier adds to the thoughts from his scouting report:
SAT JUL 1 17:04Sutton studying 2019 Michael Thomas tape
Aric DiLalla of DenverBroncos.com reports that WR Courtland Sutton is studying the 2019 tape of Michael Thomas, when he had 149 catches under now Broncos head coach Sean Payton. "It's interesting, I actual just got â€" not too long ago, maybe a week or two ago â€" I just got Michael Thomas' 2019 targets from his year that he broke the record," Sutton said. "[I'm] just diving into it [to] be able to see how he may have run a route that we are learning right now. Figuring out ways to get open."
Sutton has never been a top route runner, and the gap between his skills in this area and Thomas' are substantial. This feels a lot like Drew Lock turning down Peyton Manning's help as a rookie but calling Manning back three years later once Denver signed Teddy Bridgewater to compete with him. It was way too late. I also noted effort as an issue with Lock's scouting report.
The boom for Sutton is the potential for a semi-close approximation of Thomas' volume, which could lead to career highs in production. Russell Wilson will have a proven offensive mind coaching him who will see the ties between Wilson's game and Drew Brees. If it all clicks, Sutton could deliver 1,300-1,400 yards and 8-12 touchdowns.
The bust is Sutton's inconsistency, lackluster route skills in comparison to Thomas, and another season where he can't emerge as a reliable primary starter for the Broncos or your fantasy team. There's already conversation filtering out to the public that Tim Patrick has a lot of value among the coaches, and combined with the promise of Marvin Mims, Sutton could be the odd man out and a trade candidate by midseason.
QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Current ADP: QB20/145th Overall
Matt's Ranking: QB26/216th Overall
Projected Statistics:
- 568 attempts, 349 completions, and a 61.4 percent completion rate.
- 3,908 passing yards with a 6.88 Yards per Attempt efficiency.
- 18 passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
- 41 rushing attempts for 166 yards and 2 touchdowns.
- 282 Fpts (PPR)
Why Love is Boom-Bust: Love athletic ability as a thrower that might rival Patrick Mahomes II. If his time working behind Aaron Rodgers has led to a greater understanding of the game, the quarterback position, and decision-making maturity, Love has the physical tools to become the next long-term quarterback of note in Green Bay.
Love's rise is far from a guarantee. At Utah State, Love's game often fell apart at the most inopportune moments, and when he made one mistake, it often lead to him committing 1-3 more shortly thereafter. It's difficult to tell whether this behavior has changed until the player finds himself in similar situations as a pro.
Love is now at the helm of a young passing offense with a host of talented but unproven players who will be looking to him for the leadership, communication, and detail that a franchise quarterback must display to help the offense grow. There isn't a receiver on the Packers' depth chart with more than two years of NFL experience. Half of the tight ends on the depth chart are rookies.
If Love has truly figured it out, he could deliver 4,000-4,500 yards as a passer, 300-400 yards rushing, and earn a stronger TD-to-INT ratio than my projected 18-to-14 — think 23-to-9 or 25-to-7. This could put him into low-end QB1 territory.
If Love's game has the same old problems it exhibited at Utah State, we could see a lower completion percentage and a worse TD-to-INT ratio. He could be out of a starting job by midseason, and the Packers jockey for a shot at Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
RB Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Current ADP: RB24/65th Overall
Matt's Ranking: RB5/10th Overall
Projected Statistics:
- 17 games, 295 rushing attempts, 1,459 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs
- 36 targets, 31 receptions, 281 receiving yards, 0 TDs
- 270.2 Fpts (PPR)
Why Akers is Boom-Bust: There are always a handful of players a fantasy analysts had ranked at the ceiling of the player's projection. This has been my post-draft stance with Akers and it comes with a lot of risk.
Akers is one of the few running backs who has returned to some semblance of his pre-injury form from an Achilles tear, but will it bear out long-term? The Rams were one of the worst offensive lines in the league last year, and Matt Bitonti doesn't have a strong prognosis for them in 2023. And if this isn't enough to dissuade you, Akers and Sean McVay had enough differences of opinion that Akers temporarily stepped away from the team last year and demanded a trade.
Nothing stated above looks like the foundation for a top-five fantasy producer at the running back position. Yet, in spite of an Achilles' injury, turmoil with his coach, and performing with a bad offensive line, Akers delivered 512 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns during the final 6 games of 2022.
Akers also did it without Matthew Stafford, and Cooper Kupp essentially missed four of those six contests where Akers excelled. I freely admit that my 2023 projections for Akers are an extrapolation of his final six games of 2022. It's Akers' contract year, McVay has bought in on Akers as a player he expects to build on last year, and the signing of Sony Michel does little to move the needle away from Akers as the feature back.
Michel offers a veteran presence who is assignment sound and can serve as a mentor in the Rams' running back room for Zach Evans, Kyren Williams, and Ronnie Rivers. The only back on the depth chart who could usurp meaningful touches from Akers this year is Evans. The rookie has promise as a blocker, but the addition of Michel is an indication that none of the other backs mentioned have the versatility in the passing game to earn an extended role as the two-minute or five-minute back.
Akers is the only option for the Rams, who can play every down and deliver dynamic play in every situation. This is why I've ranked him at the ceiling of his projection.
If Evans proves a quick study, I lower my expectations for Akers to a range of 900-1,100 yards rushing and 7-9 touchdowns. This would drop Akers into the range of RB21-RB24 on my board. This is a good baseline expectation for Akers that happens to be in line with July ADP.
If Evans performs to his ability as a runner and proves a quick study in the passing game, he could overtake Akers and render Akers a bye-week option, at best. This possibility is remote and one I wouldn't take into account beyond making Evans a priority pick in the second half of drafts.
Still, Akers' top-five ceiling as a back with low-end RB2 value has greater volatility than his peers in the same ADP range.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets
Current ADP: RB10/26th Overall
Matt's Ranking: RB36/108th Overall
Projected Statistics:
- 10 Games, 114 attempts, and 44 targets.
- 580 rushing yards and 231 receiving yards.
- 5 rushing touchdowns and 3 receiving touchdowns.
- 144.1 Fpts (PPR)
Why Hall is Boom-Bust: Hall is a dynamic mover when healthy and one of the most creative running backs in the NFL. Athletes who lean hard on dynamic movement have difficulty trusting their rehabbed body parts after a lengthy injury, and it is often the last thing for football players to regain.
A lack of trust leads to small changes in movement that place more stress on other body parts. This is the basis for compensatory injuries that often plague players during their first year back from a season-ending injury. Hall may need a year to get his mind right from his ACL tear, so expect 4-6 weeks of compensatory injuries that nag him.
This is why I have Hall projected for 10 games and a fraction of the production commensurate with his talent. If he can play 14-16 games and trust his rehabbed knee, his ceiling could be RB10 territory. Aaron Rodgers will certainly do a superior job to Zach Wilson not only as a passer but also with spotting pre-snap opportunities for big plays on the ground that will benefit Hall.
WR Allen Robinson II, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ADP: WR88/244th Overall
Matt's Ranking: WR109/306th Overall
Projected Statistics:
- 12 games
- 50 targets, 29 receptions, 290 yards, 1 TD
- 64 Fpts (PPR)
Why Robinson is Boom-Bust: This may be Robinson's last chance to deliver starter production in the NFL. He's three years removed from a 1,250-yard, 6-touchdown season with the Bears in 2020 — his second consecutive season as the 12th-ranked receiver in fantasy football.
On paper, one could attribute Robinson's decline to the disastrous tenure of Matt Nagy in 2021 and an injury-riddled season for Robinson with the banged-up Rams in 2022. Yet, the Rams lack a full arsenal of receiving talent beyond Cooper Kupp and showed no desire to keep Robinson.
Pittsburgh had a pair of 800-yard receivers working with Mitchell Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett last year. The offensive line struggled, too. None of this bodes well for Robinson returning to past glory, and my projections are for Robinson's floor.
Still, I have much respect for Robinson's technical skills as a route runner. In this area of his game, he could have the most to offer of any Steeler on the wide receiver depth chart and could be something Pittsburgh was missing last year. This is a young receiver room, and paired with a rookie passer, the offense didn't maximize its opportunities to make timely adjustments.
If Robinson and Pickett gel, we could see Robinson become one of the top 2-3 producers in the Steelers' passing game. This could give Robinson a low-end WR2 ceiling in fantasy leagues, making him a significant bargain. If he's the passing game leader, Robinson could deliver top-15 production for his position.
New teammate Patrick Peterson praised Robinson during OTAs. It's a positive layer for making a case for Robinson if there are more layers to come. Otherwise, keep in mind that Julio Jones earned praise from veteran defenders and offensive teammates last summer, and nothing came of it.
RB Rashaad Penny, Philadelphia Eagles
Current ADP: RB39/109th Overall
Matt's Ranking: RB47/151 Overall
Projected Statistics:
- 8 Games, 130 attempts, and 10 targets.
- 650 rushing yards and 48 receiving yards.
- 6 rushing touchdowns and 0 receiving touchdowns.
- 112.8 Fpts (PPR)
Why Penny is Boom-Bust: Entering his sixth year in the NFL, Penny has one season with more than 100 carries. He's never earned 800 yards rushing, and he's had three out of five seasons where he has played fewer than 10 games. Counting on him has been a fool's errand in fantasy football.
However, when Penny plays, he has averaged six yards per carry for the past two years. He's a big-play back whose scouting report at San Diego State included strong promise as a receiver.
During his sporadic playing time in the league, Penny has become more comfortable as a zone runner, which has made his game more versatile. The Eagles have one of the best running games in the league due to the strength of their offensive line and the variety of plays they can run. Jalen Hurts also creates rushing lanes with his athletic ability that a lot of NFL quarterbacks cannot do for running backs.
Unless the Eagles sign a veteran with starting experience — and there are quite a few on the market these days — Penny and Trey Sermon are the only two backs with the desirable physical dimensions on the depth chart to earn the starting role in Philadelphia. DAndre Swift should get a shot to thrive as a roleplayer with a high ceiling of production in that capacity, but he's not a wise or consistent runner between the tackles.
Kenneth Gainwell has the decision-making skills that Swift lacks, but he's a smaller player that the Eagles may not believe can hold up as a go-to option all year long. Boston Scott has underrated skills. But he's not a game-breaker, and his size keeps him in a complementary role.
Kenneth Brooks is intriguing and has the size to compete with Penny and Sermon, but he's a practice squad player with low capital and unlikely to earn enough reps to create an opportunity for playing time without multiple injuries.
If Penny can earn weekly starter workloads for at least 14 games, something he has never done in the NFL, he could earn top-five production at his position. Most fantasy GMs are adopting a mentality of "I'll believe it when I see it" when it comes to Penny's ceiling.
RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current ADP: RB25/66th Overall
Matt's Ranking: RB34/86th Overall
Projected Statistics:
- 16 games, 159 rushing attempts, 608 yards, 2 touchdowns
- 84 targets,62 receptions, 580 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns
- 204.8 Fpts (PPR)
Why White is Boom-Bust: Leonard Fournette was better than White on film last year, but White has youth, fresh athletic ability, highlight-worthy receiving ability on his college tape, and recent draft capital. He's younger, fresher, and, most importantly, cheaper.
The age-old hope from NFL executives is that backs like White will develop the "instincts" to become good NFL backs. Running back is an instinctive position, but it's also a skill position. If a runner hasn't developed most of the skills necessary for the league and isn't performing them at the speed of instinct by the time they reach the NFL, it's often too late for them to make significant gains to become reliable and productive starters.
White — like Kalen Ballage, Darren McFadden, C.J. Prosise, and Tevin Coleman — is that latest hope because of his physical skills, which include strong hand-eye coordination. Few of these skills are refined for the NFL game. The Buccaneers hope they landed the next David Johnson, but there's a strong chance White is the next in a long line of painful choices that never live up to expectations.
To do so, he'll have to prove a savvier runner between the tackles than he has shown if Tampa Bay sticks with its Duo-heavy run scheme. Duo often generates narrow creases even when it's successful. If the Buccaneers' line can stay healthy, it will be a lot better than last year, but losing Tom Brady's command of defenses at the line of scrimmage could also limit the number of big plays that the quarterback position can create for the running game.
If Baker Mayfield plays to his pre-draft expectations, the line stays healthy, and White improves his decision-making, he could deliver 1,500-1,700 yards from scrimmage and score 6-8 touchdowns. The upper end of that range is low-end RB1 territory in fantasy football.
It's also a lot of "ifs" for a starting NFL RB. I'm on the low end of his projections, his current ADP is the mid-range expectation, and the cusp of fantasy RB1 play is the ceiling. That's a volatile investment for a player taken in rounds 5-6.
Who Is Worth the Risk?
Depending on your risk tolerance, all of them. If you're a conservative drafter, Dobbins and Love. If you have a moderate risk tolerance, add Bijan Robinson, Akers, and Sutton to the list as potential offerings.
Good luck.