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Unexpected Observations from Week 2

Justin Freeman's Unexpected Observations from Week 2
By Justin Freeman, September 21, 2021

Unexpected Observations from Week 2
Photo: USA Today Sports

The injury bug had a healthy appetite in week two, taking down multiple starting quarterbacks and several other select players. For more detailed injury news and notes, always be sure to check out the Monday Injury Rounds from our own Jene Bramel. But aside from the bumps and bruises, week two gives us an opportunity to compare usage notes to search for stability.

Putting together these notes is the most important part of my weekly process. Especially for pass catchers, we know that snaps lead to routes. Routes lead to targets. Targets lead to receptions and fantasy production. Picking up the scent before our opponents is a very important winning edge. It puts us ahead of the field on the waiver wire and leads us to find value among overlooked DFS options. So, let's dive in - shall we?

Routes run and dropback data in this article is from Pro Football Focus. I prefer to focus on the percentage of routes run which is simply a player's routes divided by the team's total dropbacks. Terms: RMS = Rushing Market Share, TMS = Target Market Share, RR% = Routes Run percentage (of dropbacks)

Arizona Cardinals

  • In a much more competitive game than their week one blowout over Tennessee, Kyler Murray accounted for 24% of the team's rushes - up from 15% in week one.
  • Rondale Moore's role is growing in this offense and the team has made it a focus to get the ball to him when he is on the field. His 59% routes run was up 20% from week one. Until he can unseat Christian Kirk and/or A.J. Green, his blowup games will be spotty and unpredictable.

Atlanta Falcons

  • Cordarrelle Patterson broke out with two touchdowns in this game but still trailed Mike Davis 64% to 33% in snaps and 45% to 35% in rush attempts. His role could grow.
  • Russell Gage battled injuries throughout this game which opened the door for Olamide Zaccheaus. Zaccheaus is a prototypical DFS punt play if Gage misses week three.
  • Kyle Pitts ran twice as many routes as Hayden Hurst (80% to 40%) as the featured pass-catching tight end.

Baltimore Ravens

  • Lamar Jackson has boasted an other-worldly 35% and 39% rush attempt market share through two games. And he seems to be dialing in his accuracy through the air.
  • TySon Williams (49% snaps, 32% RMS) is not as far ahead of Latavius Murray (36% snaps, 22% RMS) as initial "workhorse" reports indicated.
  • Marquise Brown saw an astonishing 40% TMS in week two against Kansas City.
  • Sammy Watkins ran 100% of routes.

Buffalo Bills

  • In his first active game of the season, Zack Moss scored twice. However, Devin Singletary (66% snaps) was the clear number one option.
  • The Bills took their foot off the gas in this game, but Dawson Knox saw a significant improvement in his playing time and routes run.

Carolina Panthers

  • Christian McCaffrey missed portions of this game dealing with calf cramps which revealed that Chuba Hubbard is the locked-and-loaded handcuff in this offense.
  • The tight end position is simply not a part of this offense as no tight end topped 40% of routes run in week two.

Chicago Bears

  • An injury to Andy Dalton created an opportunity for Justin Fields, who failed to amaze in his first bit of extended action. He did, however, account for 29% of the team's rush attempts while playing two-thirds of the game.
  • David Montgomery's snaps predictably grew from his injury-limited week one performance.
  • Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney are locked-in starters with Damiere Byrd and Marquise Goodwin trading off as the number three option.
  • Cole Kmet (72% snaps, 61% RR) has completely lapped Jimmy Graham (34% snaps, 27% RR) as the starting tight end.

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Joe Mixon had every single rush attempt in this offense.
  • The target distribution will vary by matchup but JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are all averaging 86% RR or better.
  • Don't sleep on C.J. Uzomah who has logged north of 70% snaps and routes in each game this season.

Cleveland Browns

  • Kareem Hunt (13) had more rush attempts than Nick Chubb (11). This doesn't seem super likely to repeat, but it is a fair warning that Nick Chubb does not have locked-in volume.
  • The first-quarter injury to Jarvis Landry led to plenty of two-tight-end sets for the Browns. However, the big riser was Rashard Higgins who jumped right in for 70% of the team's snaps.
  • Browns tight ends combined for 57% of the team's targets.

Dallas Cowboys

  • While Tony Pollard has been outplaying Ezekiel Elliott for three years by most efficiency metrics, Elliott still clung to a 71% to 34% snap differential.
  • Dak Prescott did not take off for a rush at all in week two. How involved will he be in the running game moving forward? We will dive into this.

Denver Broncos

  • Melvin Gordon (59% snaps) continues to play ahead of Javonte Williams (41% snaps) and be more involved in the passing game (61% RR vs 26% RR).
  • Courtland Sutton gobbled up all the targets (35% TMS) in Jerry Jeudy's absence.
  • The three-wide set was predictably Courtland Sutton (82% RR), Tim Patrick (82% RR), and K.J. Hamler (74% RR).
  • Noah Fant has shown consistently strong target presence (21% and 18% TMS in two games).

Detroit Lions

  • T.J. Hockenson continues to look like the primary pass catcher in this bare minimum depth chart, catching 8 of 9 targets (26% TMS).
  • Finding reasonable success through the air, the Lions ditched the ground game but DAndre Swift (13 opportunities) continues to operate as the 1a while Jamaal Williams (10 opportunities) serves as the 1b.
  • Quintez Cephus was the leading WR in production and opportunity despite sparing usage in week one.

Green Bay Packers

  • After the week one blowout, it looked like A.J. Dillon might be poised to make his mark on the Packers backfield. Aaron Jones could not be taken off the field, however, as compiled four touchdowns on over 100 all-purpose yards.
  • Davante Adams controlled 33% of the Packers' targets which did not leave much for anyone else. This should be a theme throughout 2021.

Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • James Robinson stole the RB1 job back from Carlos Hyde (69% RMS vs 13% for Hyde). Robinson is clearly preferred in the passing game (61% RR vs 25%).
  • Laviska Shenault was banged up but continued to operate in the locked-and-loaded three-wide set with Marvin Jones and D.J. Chark.
  • James OShaughnessy went down with an ankle injury early in this game and rookie Luke Farrell took over with 64% of the snaps.

Kansas City Chiefs

Las Vegas Raiders

  • In the absence of Josh Jacobs, Peyton Barber handled 52% of the team's rush attempts compared to Kenyan Drake's 28%. Barber saw zero targets.
  • Derek Carr looks questionable for week three.
  • Darren Waller's monster target share from week one was diluted down quite a bit as Henry Ruggs was worked into the game plan more prominently (17% TMS).

Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angels Rams

  • Sony Michel was touchless in week one until a Darrell Henderson injury. After that point, Michel was the only running back to touch the football.
  • After being left for dead in week one, Robert Woods handled 98% of snaps in week two. He, Cooper Kupp, and Van Jefferson all played north of 90% snaps.
  • Tyler Higbee again logged 100% of the snaps in this game. Better days are ahead if you believe in this offense.

Miami Dolphins

Minnesota Vikings

  • This game against Arizona was a shootout. Dalvin Cook handled 81% of the team's rush attempts despite a minor ankle injury.
  • K.J. Osborn's participation dipped a bit (89% routes in week one to 69% in week two) but he still cashed in a bomb touchdown in the first quarter.
  • Tyler Conklin is the clear TE1 ahead of Chris Herndon (60% RR vs 11%).

New England Patriots

New Orleans Saints

  • A tale of two game scripts - the Saints played from behind in all of week two after trouncing the Packers in week one. This led for some interesting discoveries.
  • Alvin Kamara (84% snaps) looked like more of a full-time option as the team leaned on the passing game. He saw 32% TMS.
  • Marquez Callaway continues to struggle despite tremendous opportunities. LilJordan Humphrey is operating as the WR3 behind Callaway and Deonte Harris.
  • Juwan Johnson leap-frogged Adam Trautman in the routes-run department - 57% to 39%.

New York Giants

  • Saquon Barkley logged 84% of the team's snaps, a marked improvement from the 48% the week before. He also did this on a very short week which does a lot to dismiss injury concerns about his rehab. He gets plenty of rest before taking on the Falcons in week three.
  • Sterling Shepard ran 100% of the routes in this game. He looks to have much better chemistry with Daniel Jones (31% target market share) than former alpha Kenny Golladay who appeared frustrated with Jones in the fourth quarter.
  • Kadarius Toney is going to be a long-term project in this offense (just 28% of snaps for the first-round pick) until an injury opens up a place in the three-wide rotation.

New York Jets

Philadelphia Eagles

Pittsburgh Steelers

San Francisco 49ers

  • Bodies are dropping in this backfield as injuries have now claimed JaMycal Hasty, Trey Sermon, and perhaps also Elijah Mitchell. Look for the team to add depth this week.
  • Perhaps not temporary? Brandon Aiyuk ran only 58% of the team's routes a week after logging 54%.
  • George Kittle was back out there running routes but that yielded only 13% TMS.

Seattle Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Despite being declared the starter earlier in the week, Ronald Jones II (41% snaps, 29% RMS) was second fiddle to Leonard Fournette (49% snaps, 52% RMS) again in week two.
  • Rob Gronkowski remains an enigma as he outproduces his opportunities (15% TMS and 63% RR). He will likely continue to live in the boom-or-bust category but the booms could be more prevalent as Tom Brady maintains elite efficiency.

Tennessee Titans

Washington Football Team

  • J.D. McKissic roars back to life with a two-minute drill game script yielding 18% target market share. While Antonio Gibson does not need to come off the field on first and second downs, the team insists on using McKissic for third downs and hurry-ups.
  • Terry McLaurin had a monster game and has yet to miss a snap in 2021. Neither has Logan Thomas - hang in there.
  • As long as Curtis Samuel is out, there is a crystal clear three-wide set in Washington: Terry McLaurin (100% routes), Adam Humphries (90% routes), and Dyami Brown (80% routes).

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags Analysis Davante Adams Nelson Agholor Salvon Ahmed Brandon Aiyuk Keenan Allen Peyton Barber Saquon Barkley Braxton Berrios Kendrick Bourne Tyler Boyd Tom Brady Jacoby Brissett Dyami Brown Malcolm Brown Marquise Brown Damiere Byrd Marquez Callaway Parris Campbell Derek Carr Michael Carter Quintez Cephus Ja'Marr Chase Nick Chubb D.J. Chark Jr Keelan Cole Sr. Tevin Coleman Alex Collins Nico Collins Tyler Conklin Chris Conley Brandin Cooks Dalvin Cook Jared Cook Jamison Crowder DeeJay Dallas Andy Dalton Corey Davis Mike Davis AJ Dillon Will Dissly Jack Doyle Kenyan Drake Jacob Eason Eric Ebron Clyde Edwards-Helaire Austin Ekeler Ezekiel Elliott Zach Ertz Gerald Everett Noah Fant Luke Farrell Justin Fields Anthony Firkser Leonard Fournette Pat Freiermuth Russell Gage Kenneth Gainwell Myles Gaskin Mike Gesicki Antonio Gibson Dallas Goedert Kenny Golladay Marquise Goodwin Melvin Gordon III Jimmy Graham A.J. Green Rob Gronkowski Jalen Guyton KJ Hamler Mecole Hardman Jr. Damien Harris Deonte Harty Najee Harris JaMycal Hasty Darrell Henderson Jr. Derrick Henry Hunter Henry Chris Herndon Tyler Higbee Rashard Higgins Tee Higgins Tyreek Hill Nyheim Hines T.J. Hockenson Travis Homer Chuba Hubbard Adam Humphries Lil'Jordan Humphrey Kareem Hunt Hayden Hurst Jalen Hurts Carlos Hyde Mark Ingram II Justin Jackson Lamar Jackson Josh Jacobs Van Jefferson Jerry Jeudy David Johnson Diontae Johnson Juwan Johnson Ty Johnson Aaron Jones Daniel Jones Marvin Jones Jr Ronald Jones II Alvin Kamara Christian Kirk George Kittle Cole Kmet Dawson Knox Cooper Kupp Jarvis Landry Marlon Mack Patrick Mahomes II Christian McCaffrey J.D. McKissic Terry McLaurin Jakobi Meyers Sony Michel Davis Mills Elijah Mitchell Joe Mixon David Montgomery Darnell Mooney Elijah Moore Rondale Moore Zack Moss Kyler Murray Latavius Murray K.J. Osborn James O'Shaughnessy Donald Parham Jr Tim Patrick Cordarrelle Patterson Rashaad Penny Kyle Pitts Tony Pollard Dak Prescott Byron Pringle MyCole Pruitt Jalen Reagor Josh Reynolds Allen Robinson II Demarcus Robinson James Robinson Chester Rogers Larry Rountree III Henry Ruggs III Curtis Samuel Miles Sanders Trey Sermon Adam Shaheen Laviska Shenault Jr Sterling Shepard Devin Singletary DeVonta Smith Jonnu Smith JuJu Smith-Schuster Benny Snell Jr. Rhamondre Stevenson Mike Strachan Courtland Sutton Freddie Swain Geoff Swaim D'Andre Swift Tua Tagovailoa Jonathan Taylor Tyrod Taylor Logan Thomas Kadarius Toney Adam Trautman C.J. Uzomah Darren Waller Sammy Watkins Carson Wentz James White Jamaal Williams Javonte Williams Mike Williams Ty'Son Williams Zach Wilson Robert Woods Olamide Zaccheaus

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