I'm a projections guy. Every offseason, I build out projections for the upcoming season to see who has an immediate path to fantasy upside. It can be an extremely helpful exercise, not just for the results but for the process that it forces the projector to follow. The act of building projections can lead you to identify players and situations with ambiguous upside or clear pathways to volume.
Fortunately, I get to build projections during the season too! While I've added some shortcuts to speed up my process, I basically have to tear down last week's projections and rebuild them with the news and notes from the current week. While this can be a bit tedious, it forces me to go back through every data point from every team across the league to identify emerging trends. This article looks at some of the most interesting developments around the NFL.
*Note: We do not cover the teams where things went according to expectation.
Routes run and dropback data in this article is from Pro Football Focus. I prefer to focus on the percentage of routes run which is simply a player's routes divided by the team's total dropbacks. Terms: RMS = Rushing Market Share, TMS = Target Market Share, RR% = Routes Run percentage (of dropbacks)
UNEXPECTED OBSERVATIONS
- Arizona Cardinals: The return of Marquise Brown was a major success as "Hollywood" handled a team-high 97% of the snaps along with a team-high 30% TMS. James Conner also ran away with the lead-back role handling a ridiculous 97% snap share. The team clearly wants him to be a bell cow.
- Atlanta Falcons: Tight end was a nightmare in the first game post-Kyle Pitts injury. Anthony Firkser led in routes run (50%), while MyCole Pruitt led in targets (13%), and Parker Hesse led in snaps (61%). This will continue to be volatile.
- Baltimore Ravens: Gus Edwards returned after a three-week hiatus (including the bye) to dominate the ground game. He and Lamar Jackson handled 46% and 40% of the team's rush attempts, respectively.
- Chicago Bears: Darrynton Evans, not Trestan Ebner, served as David Montgomery's primary backup. Evans handled a notable 31% RMS.
- Cincinnati Bengals: Samaje Perine was indeed a bell cow in this spot-start. Perine played 80% of the snaps and a 61% RMS along with an enviable 19% TMS. Trenton Irwin continues to operate as a starting wide receiver while JaMarr Chase rehabs.
- Cleveland Browns: David Njoku resumed his old role after being limited last week. Njoku handled 19% TMS on a 74% RR.
- Denver Broncos: With no competition to speak of, Latavius Murray handled an 82% snap share. He dominated touches in the backfield but was not much of a factor in the passing game (4% TMS on 65% RR).
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