Bestball tournaments have placed an outsized importance on fantasy playoff correlation. Managers are searching for the holy grail of a Week 17 matchup, when two fantasy stars can square off in a shootout. The cleanest example is the Detroit vs. Dallas game from Week 17, 2023, when CeeDee Lamb's 33.7 half PPR points led all flex scorers and went against Amon-Ra St. Brown's 19.1 WR7 finish. Lamb finished WR1, and St. Brown finished WR3, while their ADPs made them a comfortable pairing in the first and second round turns.
Dallas and Detroit were elite offenses in 2023, with Dallas leading the league at 30.1 points per game and Detroit placing fifth at 27.4. This is not rocket science. Good NFL offenses move the ball and score points, leading to good fantasy producers.
Stacking good offenses can lead to explosive outcomes in the fantasy playoffs, typically viewed as Weeks 15 through 17. However, average draft position (ADP) can limit player access, and lineup limitations restrict potential outcomes.
A perfect scenario can illustrate the point. Detroit, Buffalo, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, and Washington were the top six 2024 offenses in total points. In our perfect world, Week 15 would see Detroit play Buffalo, Tampa Bay play Baltimore, and Philadelphia play Washington. Week 16 would follow with something like Buffalo playing Baltimore, Detroit playing Washington, and Philadelphia against Tampa Bay. Rotate the matchups again for Week 17, and suddenly the six best offenses all sit in high-upside matchups. Drafting from these teams would create the potential for ping-pong fantasy performances.
We do not live in a perfect world. The NFL schedule makers force us to deal with their decisions. But we can do the best with the hand we are dealt. What players unlock a playoff web in 2025?
An Unlikely Answer
Early best ball ADP gives a couple of potential matchups in pivotal Week 17. Nico Collins (11th overall in ADP) and his Texans play Ladd McConkey's Chargers (19th in ADP). The Rams play the Falcons, with Puka Nacua (7th) and Drake London (16th) as potential options. At the top of the draft, Ja'Marr Chase is going first off the board, and the Bengals play the Cardinals in Week 17, with both Trey McBride (21st) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (26th) as potential pairings.
There is an underrated pairing that can open a cascade of good offensive matchups.
The Giants play the Raiders in Week 17, with Malik Nabers (9th) and Brock Bowers (15th) sitting as an ADP duo.
The Giants finished 31st in points at 16.1, and the Raiders were 29th at 18.2. Woof. Despite these environments, Nabers finished as WR7, and Bowers was TE1. We know that, as fantasy entities, they are both capable of delivering significant games. It would not be a shock if both paid off ADP.
But this pairing is less about their week 17 matchup and more about what they can unlock.
Building A Foundation
The Raiders' fantasy playoff schedule is Philadelphia, Houston, and the Giants. Meanwhile, the Giants see Washington, Minnesota, and Las Vegas.
For those following along at home, we know Philadelphia and Washington were in our Top 6. Minnesota just missed, finishing ninth while the Texans were 18th. We also know we get two Philadelphia and Washington matchups yearly; conveniently, one falls in Week 16.
These two offenses are the backbone of our roster construction. Combined, they have four games against Nabers, and both play Bowers as the AFC West and NFC East are on their rotational matchup.
Washington's offense is highly accessible. Terry McLaurin holds the highest ADP in the middle of round 3. Jayden Daniels (4th), Deebo Samuel Sr. (6th), Brian Robinson Jr (8th), Zach Ertz (14th), and Austin Ekeler (14th) are all options.
Philadelphia is a bit more complicated. Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown will be off the board with a Nabers-Bowers start. DeVonta Smith (4th), Jalen Hurts (5th), Dallas Goedert (12th), and Will Shipley (16th) are the entry points.
Spreading The Web
Houston and Minnesota are the next level, as opponents for the Raiders and Giants in Week 16, respectively.
Combining these two with Washington and Philadelphia's opponents allows for another layer.
| Team/Opponents | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | Dallas | NY Giants | Detroit | |
| Houston | Arizona | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | |
| Washington | NY Giants | Philadelphia | Dallas | |
| Philadelphia | Las Vegas | Washington | Buffalo | |
Four teams stand out: Buffalo and Detroit are elite offenses, and Dallas and the Chargers are divisional opponents for the Giants and Raiders.
Dallas overlaps with Minnesota in Week 15 and Washington in Week 17.
Adding in this next layer with these four teams allows a complete picture:
| Team/Opponents | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | Minnesota | LA Chargers | Washington | |
| LA Chargers | Kansas City | Dallas | Houston | |
| Detroit | LA Rams | Pittsburgh | Minnesota | |
| Buffalo | New England | Cleveland | Philadelphia | |
Bam. Week 16, Dallas against the Chargers.
Conceptualizing the complete picture gives eight teams to target (or just six if you understandably do not want to roster multiple Giants and Raiders). Philadelphia and Washington are our Level 1 priorities. Minnesota, Houston, Dallas, and the Chargers complement each other and will be our Level 2 targets. Detroit and Buffalo are high-end offenses that can fill in open positions and can be Level 3 priorities.
Priorities When Drafting
Specific Targets in Rounds 1 and 2
- Malik Nabers, NY Giants
- Brock Bowers, Las Vegas
Level 1 Teams to Target Players From
- Philadelphia
- Washington
Level 2 Teams to Target Players From
- Minnesota
- Houston
- Dallas
- LA Chargers
Level 3 Teams to Target Players From
- Detroit
- Buffalo
Now, let's get players from those targeted teams.
The Draft Roadmap
We can use Bestball ADP as our cheat code to map a strategy. Underdog ADP is sharp, but drafters tend to stick close to results, adding predictability. Footballguys has frequent ADP updates for you.
Since we can map out a perfect draft without the fear of getting sniped, what could a correlated team look like?
This final product heavily leans on the Eagles' offense, building around Hurts, Shipley, Smith, and Goedert. That Eagles core would see Ray Davis and Keon Coleman from Buffalo in Week 17. Others providing week 17 correlation are David Montgomery—Aaron Jones, Tre Harris—Jaylin Noel, Woody Marks, and Jaydon Blue—Terry McLaurin.
This build is heavy on youth, and pivots are available, like Woody Marks to Darius Slayton or Jalen Tolbert, for a six-running back and eight-wide receiver build. The larger takeaway is that there are multiple options, like targeting Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, and C.J. Stroud as late-round quarterback plays and taking Joe Mixon or wide receivers like Jameson Williams, George Pickens, or Jordan Addison.
Final Best Ball Roster
This is just one way to attack a draft in 2025. We obviously can not know how the season will play out, but targeting potent offenses with correlation on pivotal weeks allows maximizing scores. Risk it for the biscuit, go big or go home, or whatever your favorite phrase is, planning out a path and creating a high ceiling gives a chance to succeed.
