As we enter December, the trade deadline has already passed in many leagues. In others, there is still time for some last-minute deals to bolster playoff rosters or for non-contenders to further stock up for rookie drafts next spring. For the many leagues with Week 13 trade deadlines, we get a small reprieve with no Thursday Night Football, which extends the window to make trades for three more days.
Short-term player value (the remainder of the 2020 season) is going to be heavily dependent upon each team. The biggest factor in determining how much value a player brings your roster for the stretch run is whether your team is going to make the playoffs and how big your need is at the position. If you think you have a chance to win it all and have a glaring need, it is okay to overpay a little bit.
That being said, the dynasty trade values listed in this article include only player values for 2021 and beyond because those will apply for all dynasty teams, playoffs and otherwise. Plus, the window for trades is either already closed or will be closing shortly for everyone, so most of December the values that matter are what players are going to be worth once trades are allowed after the season. If you are making a trade with the 2020 fantasy playoffs in mind, manually adjust to take into account how much that player will help you in the final few weeks of the season.
In this month’s Dynasty Trade Value Chart, we will detail:
1. Some early predictions on how 2021 offseason player values will shake out.
2. A look at some situations where what we see in the final month of the season is going to have an especially big impact on dynasty values and what to watch for.
3. A way too early 2021 rookie mock draft to start putting some possible names next to picks to provide more context on value if you are considering any last-minute trades involving picks.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
Quarterback
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Superflex
|
Single-QB
|
|
1
|
60
|
30
|
|
|
2
|
55
|
25
|
|
|
3
|
45
|
18
|
|
|
4
|
45
|
18
|
|
|
5
|
45
|
18
|
|
|
6
|
42
|
18
|
|
|
7
|
43
|
17
|
|
|
8
|
38
|
15
|
|
|
9
|
35
|
14
|
|
|
10
|
22
|
9
|
|
|
11
|
22
|
6
|
|
|
12
|
21
|
6
|
|
|
13
|
15
|
6
|
|
|
14
|
20
|
5
|
|
|
15
|
15
|
5
|
|
|
16
|
12
|
5
|
|
|
17
|
20
|
4
|
|
|
18
|
18
|
4
|
|
|
19
|
18
|
4
|
|
|
20
|
17
|
4
|
|
|
21
|
18
|
3
|
|
|
22
|
16
|
3
|
|
|
23
|
16
|
3
|
|
|
24
|
14
|
3
|
|
|
25
|
9
|
3
|
|
|
26
|
12
|
2
|
|
|
27
|
9
|
2
|
|
|
28
|
9
|
1
|
|
|
29
|
6
|
1
|
|
|
30
|
7
|
0
|
|
|
31
|
6
|
0
|
|
|
32
|
5
|
0
|
|
|
33
|
5
|
0
|
|
|
34
|
5
|
0
|
|
|
35
|
5
|
0
|
|
|
36
|
4
|
0
|
|
|
37
|
4
|
0
|
|
|
38
|
2
|
0
|
Note: QBs are listed in order of One-QB Value. Due to different levels of replacement-level production and the increased importance of youth in Superflex leagues, the ranks will differ according to format. You should notice older quarterbacks are comparatively less valuable than younger quarterbacks in the Superflex format.
Vanishing Middle Class
2020 has seen nine quarterbacks separate from the pack. Their combination of youth (eight of the nine are 27 or younger) and elite production mean they should provide a long-term edge, especially in the Superflex format. Russell Wilson, who just turned 32-years old, deservedly belongs in the bottom part of this tier because he is not going away any time soon.
At the same time as this top group has taken a leap forward, many of the younger quarterbacks who felt like safe long-term starters have given us major cause for concern. Carson Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff were all early-to-mid round picks in Superflex drafts last offseason with the hope they’d be starting NFL quarterbacks for the next decade. To varying degrees, 2020 has added to the questions surrounding the long-term outlook for each of these younger quarterbacks and we cannot assume career longevity for any of them. Longevity can be a mirage, as Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, and other young starters who flamed out have shown. Beyond those top nine, how many quarterbacks in the league can you confidently predict to still be productive starters in four or five years? If you miss do not have one of the nine quarterbacks in that top tier, you are left either with an aging quarterback for a short or medium time or a quarterback about whom you should not be assuming longevity regardless of their age.
What does it mean for strategy?
As mentioned in the introduction, in addition to providing some last-minute trade advice for the stretch run, the focus this month is trying to predict the dynasty landscape for the 2021 offseason in hopes of being prepared to make moves to get ahead of the crowd. One thing we likely see in 2021 Superflex startups is that the first round will be dominated by quarterbacks. Locking in an elite, young, QB1 should provide a major long-term advantage over the competition. The instant success of rookies like Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow is also going to inflate the rookie pick value of top superflex picks this year with Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and others likely to possess massive value before they play a snap.
The interesting strategy angle is that the impact on positional value is likely to be drastically different in Superflex than in normal one-quarterback leagues. We have gone from a situation where only a few quarterbacks had significant dynasty value in one quarterback leagues to a situation where at least nine hold fairly significant trade value. Will that still be the case when in addition to those nine up top (plus a few very productive older quarterbacks) we add a few more elite young prospects to the mix? It is a question we should be considering. We could run into the same issue we had a few years ago where there is not a dynasty trade market at quarterback because every team has at least one QB they really like and nobody is really looking to buy. If you are fortunate enough to have two of the top nine on your roster in a single-quarterback league, it may make sense to try to sell one of them soon before the 2021 rookie class enters the mix.
Taysom Hill is a wild card
One of the biggest wild cards in terms of 2021 offseason value is Hill. We only have a two-game sample size so every piece of new information is huge. Further complicating matters is that it is hard to get much of an evaluation from his two starts since both were blowout wins. The latest came in the most 2020 of fashions, a matchup against a practice squad wide receiver where the Saints basically had the game in the bag once they hit 10 points. “The game plan changed in the last 24 hours. My mindset changed as well. I really became a game manager at that point,” Hill said. “And certainly the way that Sean called the game reflected that.” This is a situation where we want to update our priors as much as possible to adjust our expectations moving forward.
If the Saints keep winning with Hill at the helm, he is going to be the starter next year regardless of outside opinions. Sean Payton has been very clear about his plan and matched the talk with a big-money extension that gave Hill starting money. For now, Hill is near the bottom of that big pack of quarterbacks who look to be short-to-medium term starters. Given his rushing ability, he remains an intriguing guy with more fantasy upside than the public seems to credit.
Running Back
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
52
|
|
|
2
|
48
|
|
|
3
|
45
|
|
|
4
|
40
|
|
|
5
|
40
|
|
|
6
|
DAndre Swift
|
38
|
|
7
|
37
|
|
|
8
|
36
|
|
|
9
|
36
|
|
|
10
|
34
|
|
|
11
|
33
|
|
|
12
|
32
|
|
|
13
|
30
|
|
|
14
|
30
|
|
|
15
|
29
|
|
|
16
|
28
|
|
|
17
|
27
|
|
|
18
|
27
|
|
|
19
|
18
|
|
|
20
|
17
|
|
|
21
|
17
|
|
|
22
|
16
|
|
|
23
|
14
|
|
|
24
|
13
|
|
|
25
|
10
|
|
|
26
|
Melvin Gordon
|
10
|
|
27
|
10
|
|
|
28
|
9
|
|
|
29
|
Zach Moss
|
9
|
|
30
|
Darrell Henderson
|
9
|
|
31
|
9
|
|
|
32
|
9
|
|
|
33
|
9
|
|
|
34
|
9
|
|
|
35
|
9
|
|
|
36
|
8
|
|
|
37
|
8
|
|
|
38
|
8
|
|
|
39
|
8
|
|
|
40
|
A.J. Dillon
|
8
|
|
41
|
8
|
|
|
42
|
LeVeon Bell
|
7
|
|
43
|
Benny Snell
|
7
|
|
44
|
6
|
|
|
45
|
KeShawn Vaughn
|
6
|
|
46
|
5
|
|
|
47
|
5
|
|
|
48
|
5
|
|
|
49
|
Lamical Perine
|
5
|
|
50
|
4
|
|
|
51
|
4
|
|
|
52
|
4
|
|
|
53
|
4
|
|
|
54
|
Mark Ingram
|
3
|
|
55
|
3
|
|
|
56
|
3
|
|
|
57
|
3
|
|
|
58
|
3
|
|
|
59
|
3
|
|
|
60
|
3
|
Hill Trickle Down
If Taysom Hill establishes himself as the 2021 Saints starter (and possibly beyond), it could be a real negative for Alvin Kamara’s fantasy value. Through two games with Hill, Kamara has taken a hit in two areas. First, his receiving production has collapsed. He has -2 - that's negative two - receiving yards in Hill’s two starts. Kamara also takes a hit in terms of his touchdown expectation. With Hill scoring four rushing touchdowns, Kamara’s share of red zone carries has decreased and that is likely to be a continuing factor if Hill holds the starting job. Kamara is still an elite talent in the middle of his prime so we do not want to knock him too much. However, if his touchdowns and receptions remain down through the final handful of games in 2020, he is a candidate to see a huge decrease in value between his 2020 peak to the 2021 offseason.
Can Ekeler emerge as elite?
Ekeler was mentioned here many times in the offseason as a favorite target due to his PPR upside in the lead role. The unexpected emergence of Justin Herbert as one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks pushes Ekeler’s upside up a couple of notches and we saw a glimpse of that in his first game back from the serious hamstring injury that cost him most of the 2020 season. He had 11 catches in addition to 14 carries. If we see more games like this down the stretch of the 2020 season, Ekeler could push towards that elite tier at the very top of the dynasty ranks this offseason.
A Note on Rookie Running Backs
As a rookie Christian McCaffrey averaged 27.2 rushing yards per game for an average of 3.7 yards per carry. He racked up a lot of catches but averaged only 5.8 yards per target. There were some flashes but nothing that would make you think he was about to emerge as the most dominant fantasy force in the league. Fellow rookie Leonard Fournette averaged 80 rushing yards per game and was dominant in stretches during the playoffs, nearly helping the Jaguars to the Super Bowl and looked like a potential long-term star. LeVeon Bell was pedestrian as a rookie before transforming his body and becoming a superstar in his second season while Giovani Bernard looked like a potential star before slowly fading into the background.
The point here is that we should take rookie running back stats with a grain of salt and be careful about crowning guys too early or, on the other hand, giving up too soon after a disappointing year.
Taking Stock
With the above disclaimer in mind, we have an increasingly large sample size with which to start to judge the 2020 rookie class. Here are some quick thoughts on where things stand with each of the top guys:
- Antonio Gibson has emerged as arguably the most exciting prospect of the group. We knew he had elite measurables and the receiving ability to potentially become one of those rare, league-tipping talents who racks up yardage, touchdowns, and receptions. We have not fully seen him unleashed as a pass-catcher, which is something to watch for down the stretch. He has yet to have 6+ catches in any game. If he starts to add that sort of receiving production to his repertoire, watch out.
- D’Andre Swift looked on the verge of a major breakout prior to a concussion. He finally received a true starter’s share of the snaps in Week 10 and responded with 149 total yards. The PPR upside for Swift remains obvious. He is averaging 4.3 catches per game despite being limited to a part-time role. With more snaps, 5-to-7 receptions per game becomes the expectation and that would make him a near-lock for PPR stardom.
- Jonathan Taylor remains an enigma with the Colts using a hot hand approach at the position. The upside is still huge but Taylor is not a lock to emerge as the main guy. The stretch run will be huge for his 2021 offseason value. With a strong finish, he could easily re-emerge as a Top 5 dynasty asset at the position.
- J.K. Dobbins has also shown flashes of emerging as a star. He looks likely to emerge as the go-to option for the Ravens moving forward, though there remain some questions as to his PPR ceiling given the lack of involvement in the passing game for the Ravens backs.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire is playing well but the usage of running backs, in general, has been a disappointment for the Chiefs. Edwards-Helaire sits as the RB12 for the season but has not had the major impact many expected. His dynasty value has dropped but he would be terrifying to trade away given his upside with even a slight change in usage.
- James Robinson has been a fantasy star as one of the only backs in the NFL taking virtually all of the carries for his team. He has done enough to feel good about the likelihood he will remain the starter at least for the next few years, which gives him real value. He could move up in the offseason if the Jaguars do not add any RB competition and are able to land an elite quarterback prospect.
- Cam Akers has been the most disappointing of the rookie backs. He has not been able to push aside Darrell Henderson or Malcolm Brown. Plus, this Rams offense looks less and less explosive. We see occasional flashes, however. Akers could take some patience, a la Ronald Jones II.
Wide Receiver
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
55
|
|
|
2
|
52
|
|
|
3
|
40
|
|
|
4
|
40
|
|
|
5
|
38
|
|
|
6
|
36
|
|
|
7
|
36
|
|
|
8
|
35
|
|
|
9
|
35
|
|
|
10
|
33
|
|
|
11
|
32
|
|
|
12
|
32
|
|
|
13
|
32
|
|
|
14
|
D.J. Moore
|
30
|
|
15
|
30
|
|
|
16
|
30
|
|
|
17
|
30
|
|
|
18
|
Allen Robinson
|
28
|
|
19
|
28
|
|
|
20
|
27
|
|
|
21
|
26
|
|
|
22
|
25
|
|
|
23
|
23
|
|
|
24
|
23
|
|
|
25
|
23
|
|
|
26
|
22
|
|
|
27
|
21
|
|
|
28
|
Will Fuller
|
20
|
|
29
|
19
|
|
|
30
|
D.J. Chark
|
17
|
|
31
|
Henry Ruggs
|
16
|
|
32
|
Odell Beckham
|
16
|
|
33
|
16
|
|
|
34
|
Laviska Shenault
|
16
|
|
35
|
15
|
|
|
36
|
Michael Pittman
|
15
|
|
37
|
14
|
|
|
38
|
14
|
|
|
39
|
Robby Anderson
|
13
|
|
40
|
13
|
|
|
41
|
12
|
|
|
42
|
12
|
|
|
43
|
11
|
|
|
44
|
11
|
|
|
45
|
11
|
|
|
46
|
11
|
|
|
47
|
10
|
|
|
48
|
10
|
|
|
49
|
10
|
|
|
50
|
Gabriel Davis
|
9
|
|
51
|
Mecole Hardman
|
8
|
|
52
|
8
|
|
|
53
|
8
|
|
|
54
|
Darius Slayton
|
8
|
|
55
|
8
|
|
|
56
|
7
|
|
|
57
|
7
|
|
|
58
|
6
|
|
|
59
|
6
|
|
|
60
|
6
|
|
|
61
|
6
|
|
|
62
|
6
|
|
|
63
|
6
|
|
|
64
|
5
|
|
|
65
|
NKeal Harry
|
5
|
|
66
|
K.J. Hamler
|
5
|
|
67
|
5
|
|
|
68
|
Scott Miller
|
5
|
|
69
|
5
|
|
|
70
|
5
|
|
|
71
|
Keelan Cole
|
5
|
|
72
|
4
|
|
|
73
|
4
|
|
|
74
|
4
|
|
|
75
|
4
|
|
|
76
|
4
|
|
|
77
|
4
|
|
|
78
|
Marvin Jones
|
3
|
|
79
|
3
|
|
|
80
|
3
|
|
|
81
|
3
|
|
|
82
|
3
|
|
|
83
|
3
|
|
|
84
|
2
|
Hill on Fire
The numbers are staggering. Over the last four weeks, Hill has 27 catches for 582 yards and 8 touchdowns. His usage has changed. Prior to the last three games, Hill had seen 14+ targets three times in 66 career games. He has doubled his career total of 14+ targets games over the last three weeks with games of 14, 15, and 18 targets. The thing to watch down the stretch is how durable this bump in usage proves to be. Some of this was out of necessity with Sammy Watkins injured and Mecole Hardman on the COVID list. However, it has worked so maybe we just see Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes II continue to pepper Hill with targets. If that is the case, then he should probably be the 1.01 in dynasty startups this offseason.
You can go with this or you can go with that
At least for now, Hill and DK Metcalf have separated from the pack a little bit. The tough dynasty decisions this offseason in that next tier are going to come down to how much of a premium you place on age versus proven elite production.
Davante Adams and A.J. Brown are a good example of the conundrum. Brown is 23-years old and has established himself already as a low-end WR1. You feel good about penciling him into your starting fantasy lineup for a good chunk of the next decade. He also has just four career games with more than five catches, so his PPR impact has been slightly limited in comparison to someone like Davante Adams. Adams has played eight full games in 2020 and averaged 8.9 receptions for 109 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game in those eight outings. Just for further context, that is a full-season pace of 142 catches for 1,744 yards and 22 touchdowns!
So the question then becomes how much of a premium do you place on the 4.5-year age gap between Brown and Adams? Do you draft the guy who is putting up historic numbers but turns 28-years old soon or the guy who is putting up very good numbers and does not turn 24-years old until July? Do you potentially sacrifice a few PPG over the next couple of years to reap the longer-term rewards?
There are a number of similarly difficult decisions, especially when it comes to slotting in this talented class of 2020 rookie wide receivers against proven veterans who are still squarely in their prime. Stefon Diggs (27), Michael Thomas (27), DeAndre Hopkins (28), Calvin Ridley (26 later this month), and Terry McLaurin (25), and Mike Evans (27) are prime producers who should not fall off any time too soon. But Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Tee Higgins are also putting up excellent numbers and are only 21-years old. There is a risk versus reward aspect to these decisions that makes it a tough choice.
