The NFL offseason is in full swing, and we are just one week away from the official start of free agency. While free agency can dramatically shift player values in dynasty leagues, this year's free agent class may be one of the least impactful in recent memory—at least for skill-position players. The running back market is weak, and with an elite rookie class set to enter the league in April, it's unlikely that any free agent signing will drastically move the needle. The wide receiver class is even worse, with Tee Higgins expected to remain in Cincinnati and no true difference-makers available. Instead, the biggest free agency ripple effects will come from quarterback movement, as a game of musical chairs plays out across the league. Players like Malik Nabers, Garrett Wilson, and George Pickens will see their dynasty values fluctuate based on who ends up in line to throw them the ball. We will spend much of the March dynasty trade value chart article looking at the quarterback position.

While free agency is about to take center stage, this month's dynasty trade value update is also heavily influenced by the testing and chatter coming out of the NFL Combine. With testing numbers in hand, we have a much clearer picture of the strengths and weaknesses of this incoming rookie class. Many of the biggest risers and fallers in this update are rookies, as we start to hone in our rookie player values ahead of rookie drafts later in the spring. With free agency and the NFL Draft both looming, now is the time to get ahead of market shifts before they happen.

Quarterback

By far the most interesting position to track in March will be quarterback. Several teams are desperately searching for answers at the sport's most important position—but very few exciting options are available. Desperation is in the air. With a weak incoming rookie class at quarterback, most of the top free-agent passers are likely to land starting jobs, even if some of those signings feel more like temporary band-aids than long-term solutions.

If you've followed my work over the years, you know I like to quantify as much as possible. Let's do that here by assigning odds to each quarterback's chances of starting in Week 1. Dynasty quarterback values are highly dependent on job security, so viewing the position through this lens can help us make smarter trade and draft decisions this offseason.

We can start with the easy part—there are 23 teams with their starting quarterback locked in for 2025. These 23 quarterbacks are virtually guaranteed to be under center for their current teams when the season kicks off:

In an ideal world, your Superflex dynasty roster includes at least two of these 23 locked-in starters, leaving you with very little stress at the position heading into next season. However, if you find yourself in need of a quarterback, your attention naturally shifts to the nine teams with unresolved quarterback situations. In the table below, I've ranked the available quarterbacks by their odds of starting Week 1.

Quarterback Odds and Outlook

There are nine open quarterback spots in the NFL. Some of those jobs are more open than others, which is reflected in the percentages for players like Anthony Richardson and Derek Carr. It is a fun and enlightening process to make all the percentages add up to exactly 900% to match the nine open jobs. Here are my thoughts on the odds for each candidate to fill one of those nine open jobs.

Cameron Ward (100%)

It would be a shock if Cam Ward is not a Top 3 pick in April's draft and a Week 1 starter. His combination of arm talent and athleticism fits the modern NFL mold, and quarterback-needy teams at the top of the draft should be lining up for a chance to make him the face of their franchise. My money is on Ward to go first overall, whether to the Titans or another team (likely the Giants or Browns) after a trade. If I had to do a Superflex rookie draft tomorrow, I would select Ward 1.02 behind only Ashton Jeanty. 

Sam Darnold (100%)

Among free-agent quarterbacks, Sam Darnold stands head and shoulders above the rest. He's a virtual lock to sign a healthy multi-year deal—possibly in the $40 million per year range—to be a team's starter in 2025. His market will be interesting, but he should benefit from the weak free agent and rookie classes. 

Anthony Richardson (90%)

It's not quite time to write Anthony Richardson in pen as the Colts starter, but he's the heavy favorite. Unless there's a major setback in his recovery or a surprise addition in free agency, Richardson should be under center for Indianapolis in Week 1.

Derek Carr (90%)

The Saints don't have a better option, and the free-agent market isn't exactly overflowing with upgrades. Barring something unexpected, Derek Carr will get another season to prove he's the guy in New Orleans. However, I am not completely ruling out the Saints as a landing spot for a quarterback at 9th overall.

J.J. McCarthy (85%)

With the Vikings opting not to tag Sam Darnold, the odds have increased that J.J. McCarthy will open the season as Minnesota's starter. There is still a chance Darnold will land back in Minnesota, which is the main reason McCarthy does not have a higher chance of starting than 85%. 

Shedeur Sanders (80%)

Shedeur Sanders is one of the biggest wild cards in this draft class. As Dane Brugler noted in his recent mock draft, Sanders could go in the Top 6 picks or slip into the second round. The most likely outcome? A team desperate at quarterback falls in love with his upside and selects him in the top half of Round 1, setting him up to start right away. However, there does appear to be a real and widening gap between Ward (who feels like a Top 3 lock) and Sanders. This, combined with Ward's greater rushing upside, means there should be a solid gap between the two in dynasty trade value. If in a Superflex rookie draft tomorrow, I would not consider Sanders until very late in the 1st round. I have Ward, five running backs, and four wide receivers ranked ahead of Sanders as of today. I have Sanders ranked ahead of the top tight ends, but not by much.

Justin Fields (80%)

The smart money is on Justin Fields landing back in Pittsburgh as the Steelers Week 1 starter, but the Jets are another team that could enter the mix. Fields' starting odds are solid, and there is an argument to be made that he is one of the most underrated dynasty quarterbacks at the moment.

Kirk Cousins (70%)

All signs point to Atlanta cutting Kirk Cousins, but that doesn't mean his starting days are over. In a quarterback landscape defined by desperation, Cousins should have no trouble landing another opportunity to start elsewhere in 2025. Unlike the next two veterans on this list, Cousins has contractual offsets in his deal with the Falcons that will likely lead to a veteran-minimum contract with his new team. That makes him considerably more attractive for a team looking for solid quarterback play at a bargain price.

Russell Wilson (50%)

If the eight quarterbacks listed above all lock down starting jobs, that leaves just one or two starting spots up for grabs. Russell Wilson is squarely in that mix, but he's no longer guaranteed a seat when the music stops. 

Aaron Rodgers (50%)

Like Wilson, Aaron Rodgers is likely fighting for one of the final starting jobs in 2025. Health and off-field factors add risk, but if Rodgers wants to keep playing, there's about a coin flip chance a team hands him the keys to their offense now. The other potential scenario is that Rodgers does not find a guaranteed starting spot and he waits around for an injury to a starter. This is the approach Joe Flacco took in 2023 that allowed him to lead a late-season playoff push for the Browns after starting the season out of the NFL entirely.

Jaxson Dart (30%)

At this time last year, Bo Nix was generating similar buzz to what we're hearing about Jaxson Dart right now. If a team falls in love with his upside, don't be surprised if Dart (like Nix) sneaks into the top half of Round 1—but it's far from a lock. 

Daniel Jones (20%)

The most likely scenario for Daniel Jones is landing a backup job behind one of the quarterbacks listed above who carries some durability or performance risk. His chances of entering 2025 as a starter are slim, but not zero. Minnesota (competing with McCarthy) would make a lot of sense if Darnold lands elsewhere.

Tyrod Taylor (20%)

It's easy to envision a world where the Jets miss out on their top free-agent targets, choose to wait until the draft to add a developmental passer, and Tyrod Taylor ends up as the opening-day starter by default. Taylor starting with Tyler Shough or Jalen Milroe waiting in the wings is a real possibility.

Jalen Milroe (10%)

Milroe has the physical tools to intrigue teams, but he's more likely to land in a developmental role as a rookie. His chances of starting Week 1 are slim unless a team gets very aggressive.

Tyler Shough (10%)

Like Milroe, Tyler Shough is a developmental prospect who could be drafted with the future in mind. His odds of starting in 2025 are low, barring a surprise. However, there are very few people on earth with a solid 6-foot-5 frame and 4.6 speed who can spin it like Shough does. NFL teams fall in love with tools (and for good reason).

Joe Milton III (5%)

Joe Milton III's cannon arm is fun to dream on and he showed well in limited action last season, but he profiles as a long-term project. Could a team look at the mediocre draft class and decide they would be better off overpaying for Milton in trade? Crazier things have happened.

Jameis Winston (5%)

Jameis Winston will probably find work as a backup somewhere, but it's hard to see a clear path to a starting job unless injuries or a series of unexpected events open the door.

Quinn Ewers (5%)

Quinn Ewers has plenty of arm talent, but his inconsistent college career and the depth of veteran options make his chances of starting immediately extremely low. He's much more likely to sit and develop in Year 1.

Running Back

Late in his playing career, Mike Vrabel was asked if he watched the NFL Draft. He said he did—from a treadmill. This was back when the draft kicked off on a Saturday afternoon, and Vrabel admitted he had one of his hardest and longest workouts of the year on draft day. Watching all the young talent come into the league at his position both scared and motivated him. It makes you wonder where current NFL running backs were watching this past Saturday as a wave of talented rookies blazed through 40-yard dashes at the Combine.

This incoming rookie running back class is the polar opposite of the incoming quarterback group when it comes to its impact on veterans. The sheer talent and overwhelming depth of this year's running backs is bad news for established NFL backs—especially those with shaky job security.

After years of devaluation, the running back position is once again starting to matter to NFL teams. That should, in theory, be good news for free agents like Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Aaron Jones, and others. However, the presence of so many talented rookies may cool the market considerably. We could see 8 to 10 rookie running backs selected in the Top 100 overall and another dozen with real upside go off the board on Day 3 of the draft.

This depth creates significant risk for veteran backs who currently appear entrenched as starters. For example, the Bengals will almost certainly add talent behind Chase Brown—with a third or fourth-round pick feeling like a baseline expectation. If Cincinnati invests an early pick (first two rounds), Brown's dynasty value takes a hit. If they wait until the fifth or sixth round, his value could actually rise slightly. This is the type of “draft competition risk” I'm trying to price into my running back values. It feels like third-round competition is already baked into Brown's dynasty trade value, so anythig less than that would see his value increase.

Where I think the market may be a little too low in this risk factorization is when it comes to the star running backs. The Ravens have 11 draft picks—including five in the first four rounds—and they could easily invest a premium pick at running back. That would immediately put pressure on Derrick Henry's short-term value and decrease his odds of securing an extension beyond 2025. The same logic applies across the board. Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon—all of these veterans could find themselves sharing a backfield with a talented rookie by summer. In dynasty, ignoring that risk is dangerous, and it makes sense to factor in the talent of this incoming rookie class as a factor in slightly devaluing most of the top backs until we see how the draft plays out.

Wide Receiver

Wide receiver values feel surprisingly stable right now. With Tee Higgins expected to remain in Cincinnati, the free-agent wide receiver class is uninspiring at best. Chris Godwin headlines the group, but he's coming off a significant injury, and there's a steep drop-off after that. The most impactful names potentially on the move are all aging veterans—Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, and DeAndre Hopkins—who could still provide short-term production but carry limited long-term value in dynasty.

Virtually every starting-caliber wide receiver still in his prime has already been extended, which means we're unlikely to see any major shakeups among the top dynasty wideouts. Unlike the running back position—where rookie influx and free agency could cause significant value swings—the top tier of dynasty wide receivers feels safe.

The incoming rookie class at wide receiver also lacks the star power of recent years. While there are some intriguing prospects, it wouldn't be surprising if no receivers come off the board in the top half of the first round. This group feels somewhat similar to the 2023 class, when the first wide receiver (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) wasn't selected until 20th overall, followed closely by Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison in a quick run.

Overall, wide receiver is the calmest position in dynasty heading into free agency and the draft—a rare island of stability in what promises to be a chaotic offseason at other positions.

Tight End

The free agent tight end class leaves a lot to be desired, but the incoming rookie class looks slightly above average—despite some slower-than-expected times at the Combine. That said, many of the top prospects at the position chose not to run in Indianapolis, making pro-day testing a crucial next step in the evaluation process.

Athletic testing arguably matters more at tight end than at any other skill position. Almost all of the top fantasy performers at the position ran in the 4.6s or faster. With that in mind, prospects like Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, Elijah Arroyo, and Mason Taylor all have serious upside—but we need to see them check the athleticism box before fully buying in.