May means rookie drafts and trying to quickly adjust to the new reality of dynasty player values after the NFL Draft. Due to the huge amount of new information, we have split this month’s Dynasty Trade Value Chart article up into two parts. Here, we will dive into the fallout from the draft and the impact it had on veteran player values.
You can find an in-depth breakdown of rookie pick values and some ideas on how to make adjustments to take into account the specifics of your league in the second part of the article: Dynasty Trade Value Special: Rookie Drafts.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
Quarterback
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Superflex
|
Single-QB
|
|
1
|
60
|
30
|
|
|
2
|
56
|
28
|
|
|
3
|
40
|
14
|
|
|
4
|
38
|
12
|
|
|
5
|
38
|
11
|
|
|
6
|
32
|
9
|
|
|
7
|
30
|
9
|
|
|
8
|
26
|
6
|
|
|
9
|
24
|
6
|
|
|
10
|
22
|
6
|
|
|
11
|
19
|
4
|
|
|
12
|
19
|
5
|
|
|
13
|
19
|
5
|
|
|
14
|
19
|
5
|
|
|
15
|
17
|
5
|
|
|
16
|
17
|
5
|
|
|
17
|
17
|
5
|
|
|
18
|
17
|
4
|
|
|
19
|
14
|
3
|
|
|
20
|
14
|
4
|
|
|
21
|
14
|
3
|
|
|
22
|
10
|
2
|
|
|
23
|
9
|
3
|
|
|
24
|
9
|
3
|
|
|
25
|
8
|
3
|
|
|
26
|
8
|
2
|
|
|
27
|
8
|
2
|
|
|
28
|
8
|
1
|
|
|
29
|
8
|
1
|
|
|
30
|
7
|
1
|
|
|
31
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
5
|
1
|
|
32
|
5
|
1
|
|
|
33
|
5
|
2
|
|
|
34
|
5
|
1
|
|
|
35
|
4
|
1
|
Clock ticking on Aaron Rodgers?
The Packers' decision to trade up in the draft for Jordan Love means the clock might be ticking on Rodgers in Green Bay. He has shown signs of decline in recent years and the decision to draft Love indicates Green Bay probably does not expect Rodgers to keep going strong for three or four more seasons. We have a new reason to question how many more years to expect from Rodgers.
The decision to draft a big, bruising running back (A.J. Dillon) instead of a wide receiver in round two is also telling from a strategical perspective and gives us more reason to question whether Rodgers will be a top fantasy option in the short term. Green Bay seems committed to being a run-first team and not relying on Rodgers to carry them with his arm. The same formula led to late-career Super Bowl wins for both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady but it required those guys to swallow their pride to some extent. It is unclear if Rodgers is willing to make the same sacrifices to give Green Bay their best chance of winning.
Add it all up and Rodgers’ dynasty value takes a significant hit.
Jarrett Stidham survives
Jarrett Stidham exits the draft without any new competition for the starting job. It is a best-case scenario for him and gives his value a slight boost. However, Andy Dalton just hit the open market and Cam Newton could end up in the mix once he can prove he is healthy. Stay tuned.
Carson Wentz has a new backup
We should view Jalen Hurts more as insurance in the case of another Carson Wentz injury and not real competition. However, there is talk of Hurts taking on a role similar to that of Taysom Hill. Hurts could vulture some touchdowns from Wentz if he gets some goal-line snaps.
Lamar Jackson data point
Last season, Lamar Jackson threw for 3,127 yards in 15 games despite the Ravens regularly jumping out to big leads. 3,500 passing yards seems a reasonable projection for 2020.
Las Vegas has Jackson’s over/under for rushing yards set at 999.5. Assuming your league gives one fantasy point per 10 rushing yards and one fantasy point per 25 passing yards, 1,000 rushing yards in the equivalent of 2,500 passing yards. Add that to a projection of 3,500 passing yards for Jackson and it is the same as 6,000 passing yards. Plus, that is not even close to a best-case scenario but closer to a median projection. Arguably, Jackson remains a bit underrated in dynasty leagues.
No excuses for Drew Lock
All of a sudden, Denver has one of the most impressive groups of young pass-catchers in the NFL. Lock now has four highly-drafted young targets at his disposal in Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, Jerry Jeudy, and K.J. Hamler. If he makes the leap in his second season and locks down the starting job long-term, he could be a big riser in 2020.
The last dance for Drew Brees
Sean Payton tried to walk back comments that 2020 was going to be Drew Brees’ final season but all signs point in that direction.
With Sean Payton calling plays, plenty of weapons, and playing indoors, the Saints quarterback job is a plum position. Whoever ends up being the 2021 starter will have fantasy value so that storyline will be one to follow closely over the next 9-to-12 months.
Running Back
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
65
|
|
|
2
|
56
|
|
|
3
|
45
|
|
|
4
|
45
|
|
|
5
|
45
|
|
|
6
|
40
|
|
|
7
|
38
|
|
|
8
|
32
|
|
|
9
|
32
|
|
|
10
|
28
|
|
|
11
|
25
|
|
|
12
|
21
|
|
|
13
|
18
|
|
|
14
|
Melvin Gordon
|
18
|
|
15
|
17
|
|
|
16
|
16
|
|
|
17
|
14
|
|
|
18
|
LeVeon Bell
|
14
|
|
19
|
14
|
|
|
20
|
13
|
|
|
21
|
13
|
|
|
22
|
13
|
|
|
23
|
10
|
|
|
24
|
9
|
|
|
25
|
9
|
|
|
26
|
9
|
|
|
27
|
7
|
|
|
28
|
7
|
|
|
29
|
6
|
|
|
30
|
Darrell Henderson
|
6
|
|
31
|
6
|
|
|
32
|
6
|
|
|
33
|
6
|
|
|
34
|
Mark Ingram
|
5
|
|
35
|
5
|
|
|
36
|
5
|
|
|
37
|
5
|
|
|
38
|
5
|
|
|
39
|
5
|
|
|
40
|
4
|
|
|
41
|
4
|
|
|
42
|
4
|
|
|
43
|
4
|
|
|
44
|
4
|
|
|
45
|
3
|
|
|
46
|
3
|
|
|
47
|
3
|
|
|
48
|
2
|
|
|
49
|
2
|
|
|
50
|
2
|
|
|
51
|
2
|
|
|
52
|
2
|
|
|
53
|
2
|
There were a few veteran running backs who saw their value increase over the last month but way more who saw their values drop. We try to price in this risk of rookie competition in advance but every year it seems like we fail to discount aggressively enough in the lead up to the NFL Draft.
We are also seeing a trend emerging where teams are wising up about giving out big second contracts to running backs. As we’ve talked about in recent months, we should be a bit more aggressive in pricing in that uncertainty as well.
Let’s look at some of the biggest winners and losers since our April update. The number in parentheses is their value change since the previous update:
Winners
Christian McCaffrey (+5)
The early contract extension for Christian McCaffrey gives a small boost to his already sky-high dynasty value. He is the first of the running backs drafted in 2017 to get an extension and it takes away any uncertainty about his future and eliminates the possibility of a holdout.
James Conner (+3)
Last month, we highlighted some backs whose value would be strongly impacted by the draft and gave ranges of possible outcomes. Aside from Conner, most saw their value take a hit, making Conner one of the very few veteran running back winners. The fact the Steelers passed on running back at #49 (when Cam Akers and J.K. Dobbins were available) and waited until the fourth round to select Anthony McFarland was a best-case scenario for Conner. He will have competition but is a solid favorite to remain the starter in Pittsburgh for at least one more season.
Raheem Mostert (+3)
The 49ers trading away Matt Breida to the Dolphins and not drafting anyone was a best-case scenario for Mostert. He remains a tough valuation, however. He is 28-years old and Kyle Shanahan has not historically been a coach to stick with one back for a long time.
On the other hand, Mostert is the heavy favorite to be the lead back for the 49ers in 2020 and should put up huge numbers in that role. With the year-to-year volatility at the running back position, sometimes it is easiest to just worry about the short term and rack up the wins with a guy like Mostert instead of overpaying for younger back with more perceived longevity.
Losers
Aaron Jones (-12)
Last month’s dynasty trade value article tabbed Aaron Jones as the key player to watch as an early indicator of how contract extensions could play out for some of these class of 2017 running backs that were due for new deals. Early returns are not good. Instead of giving Jones a solid extension after a fantastic 2019 season, the Packers drafted A.J. Dillon in the second round (presumably to replace Jones after this season). Dillon limits Jones’ upside in 2020 and puts his long-term future in Green Bay in serious doubt.
Kerryon Johnson (-9)
Johnson’s hold on the starting job seemed to be on thin ice heading into the draft and that was confirmed when the Lions passed on addressing some other big needs to take D’Andre Swift at the top of the second round. There will be talk of a committee and Johnson may even enter the season listed as the starter but the writing is on the wall. Teams don not draft running backs 35th overall without a plan to feature them in the offense.
Marlon Mack (-8)
There was some speculation early in the offseason Mack could get an extension but that never materialized and he is another back from that 2017 class whose value takes a big hit. Jonathan Taylor will obviously replace him in the Colts offense (probably starting Week 1) and Mack is not likely to have a hot market in free agency next March.
Leonard Fournette (-8)
Fournette was not traded during the draft but does not seem to be held in very hard regard by the Jaguars, which puts him in a precarious situation. Again, there will be fantasy fallout as the class of 2017 backs start looking for big-money extensions. Rumors of Fournette’s poor work ethic that have surfaced lately are also concerning.
You cannot sell for bottom of the barrel prices because he is a guy who just turned 25-years old and could easily have another 265-carry, 100-target season in 2020. However, if you can get something like 75% of what he was worth at the end of the 2019 season, it might be worth swapping out Fournette for a player with a more solid foundation of value.
Damien Williams (-7)
We knew Kansas City would probably take a running back at some point but Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round was a surprise and a worst-case scenario for Williams, who is now relegated to handcuff status.
Darrell Henderson (-6)
The selection of Cam Akers showed the Rams lack confidence in Henderson. In the post-draft press conference, Sean McVay said they saw flashes of what they thought they were getting with Henderson last season. The implied part of that statement is that most of the time, he was not what they thought he was going to be.
Wide Receivers
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
48
|
|
|
2
|
40
|
|
|
3
|
40
|
|
|
4
|
40
|
|
|
5
|
38
|
|
|
6
|
D.J. Moore
|
35
|
|
7
|
32
|
|
|
8
|
30
|
|
|
9
|
30
|
|
|
10
|
Odell Beckham
|
28
|
|
11
|
27
|
|
|
12
|
27
|
|
|
13
|
25
|
|
|
14
|
23
|
|
|
15
|
Allen Robinson
|
23
|
|
16
|
22
|
|
|
17
|
20
|
|
|
18
|
20
|
|
|
19
|
19
|
|
|
20
|
19
|
|
|
21
|
18
|
|
|
22
|
D.J. Chark
|
18
|
|
23
|
18
|
|
|
24
|
17
|
|
|
25
|
17
|
|
|
26
|
16
|
|
|
27
|
16
|
|
|
28
|
15
|
|
|
29
|
14
|
|
|
30
|
12
|
|
|
31
|
12
|
|
|
32
|
Will Fuller
|
11
|
|
33
|
NKeal Harry
|
11
|
|
34
|
10
|
|
|
35
|
10
|
|
|
36
|
9
|
|
|
37
|
9
|
|
|
38
|
9
|
|
|
39
|
9
|
|
|
40
|
Mecole Hardman
|
9
|
|
41
|
8
|
|
|
42
|
8
|
|
|
43
|
7
|
|
|
44
|
Robby Anderson
|
7
|
|
45
|
6
|
|
|
46
|
6
|
|
|
47
|
Marvin Jones
|
6
|
|
48
|
6
|
|
|
49
|
5
|
|
|
50
|
5
|
|
|
51
|
5
|
|
|
52
|
5
|
|
|
53
|
5
|
|
|
54
|
5
|
|
|
55
|
5
|
|
|
56
|
4
|
|
|
57
|
4
|
|
|
58
|
4
|
|
|
59
|
4
|
|
|
60
|
4
|
|
|
61
|
4
|
|
|
62
|
3
|
|
|
63
|
3
|
|
|
64
|
3
|
|
|
65
|
2
|
|
|
66
|
2
|
|
|
67
|
2
|
|
|
68
|
2
|
|
|
69
|
2
|
|
|
70
|
2
|
One of the best parts of having top wide receivers on your dynasty squad is that you do not have to worry as much about a draft pick coming in and killing their trade value. We also do not have any big winners and most values remain essentially unchanged since the April update. We will touch on a few wide receivers who lost some value, however.
Winners
Allen Lazard (+1) and Devin Funchess (+1)
Surprisingly, the Packers did not draft a single wide receiver. Lazard should be the biggest beneficiary. It is questionable just how much upside he actually has but there will be believers in his breakout potential. Devin Funchess also has a better shot at regaining fantasy relevance.
DeVante Parker (+1) and Preston Williams (+2)
The Dolphins top two wide receivers get a boost due to the arrival of a talented young quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa) and also because Miami did not add any real competition at the position despite having a boatload of picks.
Losers
Courtland Sutton (-5)
Sutton was a hot commodity over the last few months but with the Broncos adding both Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler in the draft, there is less of a chance Sutton seems a big jump in targets in 2020. The Broncos suddenly have one of the deepest groups of skill position players in the NFL and there is likely to be a lot of cannibilization of targets.
Michael Gallup (-4) and Amari Cooper (-3)
There were a lot of open targets in Dallas after the departures of Randall Cobb and Jason Witten so Gallup and Cooper should be fine. The arrival of CeeDee Lamb does cap both player’s ceilings, however.
Adam Thielen (-3)
The drafting of a first round wide receiver was not a shock but the addition of a potential volume pass catcher in Justin Jefferson hurts Thielen’s value. In a run-heavy offense, target volume is already a question.
Tight Ends
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
28
|
|
|
2
|
24
|
|
|
3
|
24
|
|
|
4
|
16
|
|
|
5
|
14
|
|
|
6
|
13
|
|
|
7
|
12
|
|
|
8
|
11
|
|
|
9
|
11
|
|
|
10
|
11
|
|
|
11
|
10
|
|
|
12
|
8
|
|
|
13
|
7
|
|
|
14
|
6
|
|
|
15
|
6
|
|
|
16
|
6
|
|
|
17
|
4
|
|
|
18
|
4
|
|
|
19
|
4
|
|
|
20
|
4
|
|
|
21
|
3
|
|
|
22
|
3
|
|
|
23
|
3
|
|
|
24
|
2
|
|
|
25
|
2
|
|
|
26
|
2
|
|
|
27
|
2
|
|
|
28
|
2
|
Given that 2020 was arguably the worst tight end draft in recent memory, there were no winners and losers over the past month. Instead, we will look at news and notes.
News and Notes
Rob Gronkowski comes out of retirement to play with his buddy Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. He looks like a mid-to-low end TE1 for 2020. The question will be whether he lost a step in his year off or if he maybe gained a step after some time for his body to heal. It also remains to be seen if this is a one-year return or if he has a few more years in him.
The arrivals of Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, and Albert Okwuegbunam via the draft take a little bit of the luster off of Noah Fant. The competition for targets in Denver will be fierce.
The Giants picked up Evan Engram’s first-round option, which is a positive for his value and shows that some of the injury concerns are slightly overblown.
