May is the best month on the dynasty calendar. For most who have fallen in love with the format, rookie-draft season is the best time of the year. There is so much to dive into with the NFL Draft wrapping up last night that this month’s dynasty trade value article is split up into two parts. Here, we will discuss the impact the draft had on veteran player values.
Find the special rookie-only trade value chart here.
In this month’s veteran dynasty trade value article, we will go deeper on:
1. What to do with Aaron Rodgers
2. A warning sign on Kirk Cousins
3. The 3 big winners at RB
4. Some more under-the-radar beneficiaries at RB
5. Fallout from a surprise pick in Jacksonville
6. 10 quick hitters on wide receiver winners and losers
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
2021 Rookie Picks
|
Pick Area
|
Start 1 QB Value
|
Superflex Value
|
|
1.01
|
38
|
42
|
|
1.02
|
36
|
38
|
|
1.03
|
33
|
37
|
|
1.04
|
31
|
36
|
|
1.05
|
28
|
35
|
|
1.06
|
26
|
33
|
|
1.07
|
24
|
31
|
|
1.08
|
17
|
29
|
|
1.09
|
15
|
27
|
|
1.10
|
13
|
25
|
|
1.11
|
12
|
23
|
|
1.12
|
11
|
21
|
|
2.01
|
11
|
15
|
|
2.02
|
10
|
13
|
|
2.03
|
9
|
12
|
|
2.04
|
8
|
10
|
|
2.05
|
7
|
9
|
|
2.06
|
7
|
8
|
|
2.07
|
7
|
7
|
|
2.08
|
6
|
7
|
|
2.09
|
6
|
7
|
|
2.10
|
6
|
7
|
|
2.11
|
6
|
7
|
|
2.12
|
6
|
7
|
Note: 3rd round, 4th round, and later-round pick value is highly dependent on how deep rosters are. Deeper rosters mean you do not have to cut relatively valuable players to add rookies and also make it easier to draft players and give them a couple of years to develop without hurting your weekly lineup options. This makes late-round picks more coveted. In shallower leagues, a 4th-round pick may have almost no utility because you would have to cut a similarly valuable player just to squeeze the rookie onto your roster. Later picks should be valued between 1 and 6 points depending on these factors.
As noted above, there is a special edition rookie-only version of the dynasty trade value chart for May. Please check it out if you want an in-depth exploration of the value of specific players and picks in different formats.
Note on 2022 Picks
Most of the time, if you are paying future picks to move up in the current year’s draft, you are forced to overpay and end up regretting it. It is not something you should make a regular practice. That being said, if there is an opportunity you feel like you cannot pass up, it is worth noting that the 2022 class looks like it will be weaker than normal — especially in Superflex leagues. Players always emerge late but there is not a surefire prospect at quarterback as of today. Never sell low on future rookie picks a year out because they typically increase in value the closer the draft gets. However, if you are confident your team will be a contender in 2021, you should be more open to moving 2022 rookie picks than you would if the draft was looking strong a year out. On the flip side, 2022 is also not a draft where you should go out of your way to try to acquire and stockpile extra picks as we have recommended for the last couple of drafts.
Quarterback
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Superflex
|
Single-QB
|
|
1
|
60
|
30
|
|
|
2
|
54
|
25
|
|
|
3
|
52
|
24
|
|
|
4
|
48
|
20
|
|
|
5
|
47
|
19
|
|
|
6
|
45
|
17
|
|
|
7
|
45
|
16
|
|
|
8
|
35
|
12
|
|
|
9
|
28
|
11
|
|
|
10
|
26
|
10
|
|
|
11
|
26
|
10
|
|
|
12
|
23
|
7
|
|
|
13
|
23
|
5
|
|
|
14
|
22
|
5
|
|
|
15
|
21
|
9
|
|
|
16
|
18
|
4
|
|
|
17
|
17
|
4
|
|
|
18
|
16
|
5
|
|
|
19
|
15
|
3
|
|
|
20
|
15
|
5
|
|
|
21
|
15
|
2
|
|
|
22
|
13
|
1
|
|
|
23
|
12
|
1
|
|
|
24
|
11
|
1
|
|
|
25
|
9
|
1
|
|
|
26
|
8
|
1
|
|
|
27
|
7
|
0
|
|
|
28
|
7
|
1
|
|
|
29
|
7
|
0
|
|
|
30
|
7
|
0
|
|
|
31
|
6
|
0
|
|
|
32
|
6
|
1
|
|
|
33
|
4
|
0
|
|
|
34
|
4
|
0
|
|
|
35
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
3
|
0
|
|
36
|
3
|
0
|
|
|
37
|
3
|
0
|
Rodgers Drama
The biggest news of draft weekend was a bombshell Adam Schefter report that Aaron Rodgers had informed Packers officials he would no longer play for Green Bay. Nothing about this is good for his dynasty trade value. There are only three possible outcomes here:
- Rodgers is traded
- The Packers and Rodgers smooth things over and he returns prior to the start of their regular season
- This turns into a Carson Palmer situation where both sides dig in and Rodgers either retires or sits out an extended period of time.
In the first two scenarios, Rodgers’ value remains unchanged. If the third scenario plays out, his dynasty value could plummet due to the uncertainty. There is no upside (compared to his dynasty value prior to the draft), only a potential downside.
Nobody knows for sure how this will play out. Thus, it is a perfect situation to judge through the lens of probabilities. What are the odds that the Packers refuse to trade Rodgers and he is sitting at home or hosting Jeopardy when the 2021 season starts?
It would be unwise to pay full pre-draft value for Rodgers if you want to trade for him. If he is on your roster and you are worried about the third scenario, do not panic but it is worth exploring if you can still trade him for near-full price so you do not have to worry about the uncertainty.
Dodged Bullets…For Now
Carolina and Denver were two teams rumored to at least be considering Justin Fields and Mac Jones. Instead, both drafted Top 10 cornerbacks. This is great news Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, and Teddy Bridgewater. It may be only a temporary reprieve, however. The most likely outcome of the Rodgers drama is that he is traded. Denver and Las Vegas are two of the teams reportedy being among the favorites to land him. While Carolina has not been tied to Rodgers, the Panthers have always seemed the most likely destination for Deshaun Watson once his legal issues are cleared up and the Texans face the reality of the situation. It makes sense to try to sell high on these quarterbacks because their futures remain unclear.
Cousins Concerns?
One of the more interesting under-the-radar stories of draft weekend was the Vikings' draft interest in quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins is locked into a massive contract for the next two years with the Vikings, which is why it was so surprising to read reports that the Vikings were targeting Justin Fields.
Even after missing out on Fields to their division rival, the Vikings did not give up on quarterback, drafting Kellen Mond 66th overall. Short term, this does not impact his fantasy value. However, there are plenty of signs now that the clock is ticking on Cousins in Minnesota. If his play slips at all as he enters his mid-30s, he could quickly find himself in the same sort of starter/backup limbo that Andy Dalton has in the last few years.
Running Back
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
48
|
|
|
2
|
44
|
|
|
3
|
42
|
|
|
4
|
42
|
|
|
5
|
39
|
|
|
6
|
38
|
|
|
7
|
DAndre Swift
|
38
|
|
8
|
35
|
|
|
9
|
34
|
|
|
10
|
34
|
|
|
11
|
32
|
|
|
12
|
31
|
|
|
13
|
30
|
|
|
14
|
29
|
|
|
15
|
26
|
|
|
16
|
25
|
|
|
17
|
25
|
|
|
18
|
22
|
|
|
19
|
22
|
|
|
20
|
16
|
|
|
21
|
14
|
|
|
22
|
11
|
|
|
23
|
10
|
|
|
24
|
A.J. Dillon
|
9
|
|
25
|
9
|
|
|
26
|
8
|
|
|
27
|
8
|
|
|
28
|
7
|
|
|
29
|
7
|
|
|
30
|
7
|
|
|
31
|
7
|
|
|
32
|
7
|
|
|
33
|
Zach Moss
|
6
|
|
34
|
6
|
|
|
35
|
6
|
|
|
36
|
Darrell Henderson
|
6
|
|
37
|
6
|
|
|
38
|
Melvin Gordon
|
5
|
|
39
|
5
|
|
|
40
|
5
|
|
|
41
|
5
|
|
|
42
|
5
|
|
|
43
|
5
|
|
|
44
|
5
|
|
|
45
|
4
|
|
|
46
|
KeShawn Vaughn
|
4
|
|
47
|
4
|
|
|
48
|
Lamical Perine
|
4
|
|
49
|
3
|
|
|
50
|
3
|
|
|
51
|
3
|
|
|
52
|
3
|
|
|
53
|
Jeffrey Wilson
|
2
|
|
54
|
2
|
|
|
55
|
2
|
|
|
56
|
2
|
Smooth Sailing for Top Backs
For the top dozen dynasty backs, very little has changed over the last month. These guys are at the top of the list because each has a strong hold on their respective starting jobs in the short-to-medium term. This is the first year in recent memory where the pecking order of the Top 12 running backs was basically untouched by the NFL Draft.
Offensive Line Boosts
The Lions drafted offensive tackle Penei Sewell, one of the best line prospects in recent years. If he meets lofty expectations, Detroit has the makings of a very good offensive line with Sewell, Taylor Decker, and Frank Ragnow profiling as standout performers. DAndre Swift should be the prime beneficiary as the centerpiece of the Lions offense. Expect hype around Swift to grow as we enter the summer.
The Chargers added the draft’s second-best lineman, Rashawn Slater, to what should be a much-improved offensive line. Austin Ekeler averaged over 16 PPR points per game last season despite struggling through some injuries and only scoring one rushing touchdown. If the Chargers rebuilt line takes a big step forward, Ekeler could get back to where he was in 2019 when he finished as the fantasy RB4 (PPR scoring).
Clyde Edwards-Helaire also gets a decent boost based upon the work the Chiefs did in improving their offensive line. The decline in Edwards-Helaire’s production as a rookie coincided with injuries along the Kansas City offensive line. The Chiefs just completed an impressive offensive line overhaul that began in free agency and concluded with the additions of massive left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. in a pre-draft trade and the selection of talented Oklahoma Center Creed Humphrey in the second round of the NFL Draft.
If you were counting on James Robinson…
The NFL Draft giveth and taketh away for dynasty managers. The surprise first-round selection of Travis Etienne was a gut bunch for anyone who was counting on James Robinson to be a key fantasy contributor. Urban Meyer’s proclamation that Robinson (and Carlos Hyde) would retain the early-down snaps is most likely coach speak as a nod to the incumbent. Actions speak louder than words and the draft capital spent to acquire Etienne means he is going to have every opportunity to be the guy in Jacksonville. Plus, even if Robinson holds onto most of the early-down work, he is not going to make much of a fantasy impact if he isn’t on the field for third downs. Realistically, the only way Robinson has any real fantasy impact the next few years is if Etienne gets hurt or is a flat-out bust (e.g. Rashaad Penny in Seattle).
Joe Mixon
Don’t sleep on Joe Mixon. The Bengals waited until the sixth round to draft a potential Giovani Bernard replacement, Chris Evans. In the post-draft press conference, offensive coordinator Brian Callahan noted, “I don’t want Joe to leave the field personally — Joe should be on the field for every down.” Mixon had a career-high 43 catches in 2018 (in 14 games) but clearly has the skillset and potential for more. He was on pace for 56 receptions in 2020 before getting injured in Week 6. Mixon has become somewhat of a forgotten man in dynasty leagues as everyone chases the shiny new objects — the rookie and second-year backs — but it is worth remembering that Mixon is still just 24-years old (only 20 months older than Najee Harris). If this Bengals offense makes a big leap in Joe Burrow’s second year with the addition of Ja’Marr Chase, Mixon could finally emerge as a fantasy star.
The 3 Big Winners
- Myles Gaskin
Gaskin probably dodged a bullet when Denver traded up right in front of Miami to select Javonte Williams. With no serious threat added via the draft, Gaskin should be the man in Miami for 2021. He made the most of his opportunity last season. In 10 games, he averaged 97 yards from scrimmage per game. With the added speed at wide receiver (Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle) keeping teams from stacking the box, this is a run game with upside. You don’t want to assume any longevity here but Gaskin clearly has real fantasy value for 2021. - Chase Edmonds
The signing of a solid but unspectacular veteran like James Conner was probably a best-case scenario for Edmonds’ 2021 prospects. With the draft officially in the rearview, we know it is just Edmonds and Conner at the top of the depth chart for Arizona. Edmonds is more dynamic and the better pass catcher, so he is the Cardinals back to target. - Mike Davis
Atlanta has been a fantasy wasteland for running backs in recent years, so we do not want to overvalue Davis’ opportunity. That being said, he looks like he is going to be the starter for what should be a high-scoring offense and he has a well-rounded skill set with pass-catching upside. He has value as a depth piece or maybe even as a low-end starter for Zero-RB dynasty rosters.
Wide Receiver
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
44
|
|
|
2
|
42
|
|
|
3
|
40
|
|
|
4
|
40
|
|
|
5
|
38
|
|
|
6
|
36
|
|
|
7
|
36
|
|
|
8
|
34
|
|
|
9
|
32
|
|
|
10
|
D.J. Moore
|
30
|
|
11
|
30
|
|
|
12
|
29
|
|
|
13
|
28
|
|
|
14
|
28
|
|
|
15
|
27
|
|
|
16
|
27
|
|
|
17
|
27
|
|
|
18
|
Allen Robinson
|
26
|
|
19
|
24
|
|
|
20
|
22
|
|
|
21
|
21
|
|
|
22
|
20
|
|
|
23
|
19
|
|
|
24
|
19
|
|
|
25
|
D.J. Chark
|
19
|
|
26
|
18
|
|
|
27
|
16
|
|
|
28
|
16
|
|
|
29
|
Laviska Shenault
|
15
|
|
30
|
15
|
|
|
31
|
14
|
|
|
32
|
Michael Pittman
|
13
|
|
33
|
13
|
|
|
35
|
Odell Beckham
|
13
|
|
34
|
12
|
|
|
36
|
12
|
|
|
37
|
11
|
|
|
38
|
Robby Anderson
|
11
|
|
39
|
11
|
|
|
40
|
11
|
|
|
41
|
10
|
|
|
42
|
Will Fuller
|
10
|
|
43
|
Gabriel Davis
|
9
|
|
44
|
9
|
|
|
45
|
9
|
|
|
46
|
9
|
|
|
47
|
8
|
|
|
48
|
Henry Ruggs
|
8
|
|
49
|
7
|
|
|
50
|
7
|
|
|
51
|
Mecole Hardman
|
7
|
|
52
|
6
|
|
|
53
|
6
|
|
|
54
|
6
|
|
|
55
|
5
|
|
|
56
|
5
|
|
|
57
|
5
|
|
|
58
|
5
|
|
|
59
|
K.J. Hamler
|
5
|
|
60
|
5
|
|
|
61
|
4
|
|
|
62
|
4
|
|
|
63
|
Marvin Jones
|
4
|
|
64
|
4
|
|
|
65
|
4
|
|
|
66
|
4
|
|
|
67
|
3
|
|
|
68
|
TreQuan Smith
|
3
|
|
69
|
3
|
|
|
70
|
3
|
|
|
71
|
2
|
|
|
72
|
2
|
|
|
73
|
2
|
|
|
74
|
2
|
|
|
75
|
2
|
|
|
76
|
2
|
|
|
77
|
2
|
|
|
78
|
2
|
10 quick hitters on how the draft impacted dynasty value of veteran wide receivers:
- Davante Adams loses a bit of trade value due to the Aaron Rodgers uncertainty, especially since somebody like Jordan Love, Derek Carr, or Teddy Bridgewater is the most likely alternative.
- Tee Higgins probably loses a tiny bit of dynasty trade value, though the selection of Ja’Marr Chase was mostly priced in already. Plus, as Sigmund Bloom pointed out in his fantastic review of the first round, don’t make the mistake of discounting Higgins or Tyler Boyd too much. It is worth remembering that the Bengals have 187 open targets from last season due to the departures of A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard, Alex Erickson, and John Ross.
- Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are solid buy-low targets right now. It is hard to get overly excited about either given the current state of the Broncos quarterback room but Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson both look like real possibilities for Denver. These two would instantly become hot dynasty commodities if Denver can pull off a move for an elite quarterback.
- Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton each take value hits with the arrival of Kadarius Toney. There are only so many targets to go around, especially since the Giants offensive pie is not especially big.
- Laviska Shenault is difficult to value. His upside with Trevor Lawrence is enticing but the arrival of Travis Etienne may hurt him more than many realize. This is especially true given that Urban Meyer was reportedly targeting Kadarius Toney in the first round and compared Etienne to Percy Harvin in his post-draft press conference. That hybrid role is where Shenault theoretically would excel most, so Etienne is more of a direct competitor for touches than people think. All of the focus was understandably on James Robinson but this is a situation where positional designations do not tell the full story because Shenault and Etienne are also direct competitors for manufactured opportunities.
- Julio Jones might be available via trade, which is yet another reminder that the end of his fantasy dominance is coming sooner than later. Jones is 32-years old and we have seen the end come sooner than expected for similar guys like Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green. Jones is being over-drafted by multiple rounds in dynasty startups.
- Corey Davis and Denzel Mims lose some value with the arrival of Elijah Moore. Moore is a potential high-volume target who is now the odds on favorite to emerge as Zach Wilson’s favorite receiver.
- Darnell Mooney gets a bump in value due to the arrival of Justin Fields (who throws a beautiful deep ball) and the fact Chicago did not draft any wide receivers until very late in the draft.
- Quintez Cephus will get his shot this year because his competition for a starting outside role consists entirely of veteran journeymen and undrafted rookies. We will find out if he is good enough to take the opportunity and run with it.
- Christian Kirk just has not been able to put it all together despite what seemed to be a perfect scheme fit. Now, Rondale Moore is on the roster and it is fair to wonder if Moore ends up making Kirk irrelevant for fantasy.