For many years, David Dodds' article, "From the Gut," was an annual pre-draft tradition at Footballguys.
If you've been around the fantasy industry long enough, you're keenly aware of David's contributions to the site, our community, and our industry.
I called first dibs on taking over this piece last year. Who better to take over an article with this title than the guy who has written a column called "The Gut Check" for 20 years?
If you're reading this, David, you know we all miss you here and are grateful. Once again, let's begin this in your words:
As I comb through mounds and mounds of data to help me produce [projections to develop] rankings and articles for the website, I still think back to some of my best fantasy rosters when I went in with a short list of guys I wanted to nab and others I wanted to avoid.
Sometimes you just have to follow your gut.
Quarterbacks
Strategy
Unless your home league has a run on the most viable quarterbacks before the eighth round, there are two reasons you're considering an early-round quarterback. 1) You have a specific scoring system that reveals a clear advantage for a handful of passers. 2) You legitimately believe 1-2 players have a real shot at a record-breaking season. Otherwise, it's wise to wait until at least the eighth round, if not 3-4 rounds longer, based on the historically narrow gap in points between starters in most formats.
Here are my thoughts — good, bad, and ugly — on quarterbacks this year. The quarterbacks mentioned below are ordered by their consensus ADP at Footballguys.
Patrick Mahomes II: I don't believe we've seen the best of Mahomes. When considering he just posted career highs in every category last year except for passing touchdowns, it seems crazy on the surface. Yet, watch his preparation on Netflix's show Quarterback.
Mahomes's trainer tailors Mahomes' workouts to match his playing style. Tim Hallmark did similar work way back in the day for former world heavyweight champion Evander Holyfield.
Mahomes also has a voracious curiosity about the game. The fact that Tom Brady told Mahomes early in his career that Mahomes approaches the position the right way is a seal of approval from the platinum standard.
The Chiefs' passing offense has been two fantasy-friendly megadoses of Travis Kelce and the primary wide receiver and a bunch of hit-or-miss fantasy values everywhere else. I believe this has to do with the surrounding talent beyond Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Chris Conley, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are not complete receivers. Sammy Watkins and Josh Gordon weren't reliable and on the tail end of their careers.
While possible Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Justyn Ross, Richie James, Justin Watson, and Rashee Rice could disappoint as a depth chart, this is a strong mix of talent that I have a feeling is on the rise. Toney is the only receiver who has a history of unreliability, and he's as versatile, dynamic, and capable of high-ceiling value as a legitimate fantasy starter as everyone else on this list.
If two of these three receivers perform to their potential and Travis Kelce delivers yet again, Mahomes could threaten Peyton Manning's season of 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns. Although there wasn't much of a gap between Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts last year, there's a strong argument that Allen and Hurts must run to generate comparable fantasy totals.
Mahomes can run and adds value with his legs, but he's not nearly as dependent on them to deliver fantasy value. That's a valuable height built into his fantasy floor.
If you're drafting in the middle of the pack, taking Mahomes in the middle of the second round feels right. He has the highest upside and the highest floor of any player on the board for the next 20 picks. There are a lot of undervalued receivers and backs available in Rounds 3-6, so you're not missing out.
Lamar Jackson: The Ravens have tried to get Jackson quality receiving talent, but they've failed for three reasons: 1) Their picks' lack of development. 2) Injuries. 3) Poor fits for the offensive system.
Greg Roman is out, and Todd Monken is in. We're going to see the Ravens spread the field more than ever with wide receivers known for their skill after the catch. Expect the scheme to create more coverage breaks that lead to receivers sneaking behind the defense for wide-open vertical shots that we haven't seen as often as we did since Lamar Jackson's career year in 2019.
The big plays may not come frequently enough to drive up Jackson's yards per attempt into the 7.8-8.1 range of top vertical passing games but expect 5-7 more passing touchdowns that result from chunk plays.
I'm expecting a combined yardage season from Jackson that threatens 5,000 yards. There's enough receiver talent that 1-2 injuries won't kill this offense like it has in the past.
If you're at the back turn of your fantasy drafts and you can get a WR/RB combo like A.J. Brown-Nick Chubb and follow that up with Jackson and one of T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, and/or Amari Cooper, you're off to a strong start.
Jackson has been underestimated in every aspect of his quarterbacking career, from his pocket game to his mental acumen to his ability to negotiate a good contract without an agent — something most quarterbacks wouldn't have done as well as he. I like the potential for Jackson behind this offensive line to have a record year.
Dak Prescott: Cowboys fans are like that aging parent who can't say something nice about their kid without including criticism that has more gravity than their praise. You can probably say that about fans of most teams, but there's something about Dallas fans that magnify the behavior.
Prescott is at the epicenter of the criticism. The returns for Prescott have been way up and way down for the past four years, thanks to injuries to the quarterback and his surrounding talent.
The addition of Brandin Cooks may not have generated a huge ripple in the fantasy continuum, but it's a quality addition that will bolster the offense. I'm also a believer in Jake Ferguson generating value similar to Dalton Schultz.
Dallas' offense should be good this year, and if you are cool with taking your team's quarterbacks with consecutive picks, Prescott and a safe option like Kirk Cousins is a good tandem. Or, Cousins and . . .
. . . Geno Smith: Aaron Rodgers has great upside, but will his receiving corps be on the same page with him when it comes to reading defenses? Garrett Wilson has never played with a quarterback that possesses this advanced knowledge of defenses and adjustments. Corey Davis? Mecole Hardman? They aren't as advertised.
That leaves Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Tyler Conklin, and C.J. Uzomah. Lazard can produce in this setting but I'm not counting on 100 targets. When it all adds up, it looks like a good-but-not-great fantasy season for the Jets offense.
Meanwhile, Smith is available at the same spot and working with the same base talents as last year while adding a Cooper Kupp-like component in Jaxon Smith-Enjigba. The public can't get past that Smith's breakout season came in his tenth year. Hopefully, you do because he's a solid bet to repeat top-five production at his position at the price of QB15.
I'll take that every time.
Derek Carr: If you're playing the late-round quarterback game, Carr is the best option because of his surrounding talent and the likelihood of this offensive line realizing its potential this year. If you're a low-risk drafter, Carr is a good second quarterback after you've taken any of the options listed above. If you're a high-risk drafter, pair Carr with one of the young quarterbacks like Jordan Love, Bryce Young, or Brock Purdy and play the matchups.
Running Backs
Strategy
I like targeting close to a 50-50 mix of running backs and receivers in my drafts, taking only the minimum required options at defense, kicker, and tight end. Everyone wants to say they picked the next elite running back outside of the first 2-3 rounds, which often leads to going hard to the hole on less-proven runners with athletic upside.
Fantasy GMs may win their leagues in the late rounds with upside picks, but they often lose their leagues in the early rounds with upside picks. The players with the fewest trap doors to their games, scheme, and surrounding talent make the best picks during the first 8-10 rounds. After that, increase the weight you give to a player's ceiling ahead of his floor.
Christian McCaffrey: The only reason McCaffrey isn't the slam-dunk No.1 pick overall is his injury history. He and Nick Chubb might be the two best decision-makers between the tackles in the NFL, and both teams have excellent offensive lines and surrounding talent to deliver record-breaking production in the right scenario.
McCaffrey has the third-best season in history for yards from scrimmage with 2,392 in 2019. Half of the totals comprising the top 10 come from backs who were 26 and older. Of the top 12 producers, half of them had another season among the top 50 of all time.
McCaffrey isn't one of them, but his one season came as a 23-year-old. Four years later, I think McCaffrey gets his shot to threaten Marshall Faulk (2,429) and Chris Johnson (2,509) for the top spot.
Nick Chubb: I thought Jerome Ford might earn Kareem Hunt's role and keep Chubb's ceiling as a mid-range fantasy RB1. That may still happen, but the fact that Cleveland signed Jordan Wilkins rather than adding Hunt, Ezekiel Elliott, or Leonard Fournette tells me that they plan to ride Chubb for all he's worth now that Deshaun Watson had a season to knock off the rust.
I've always liked Wilkins as a decision-maker, and he has good contact balance. He's not a top talent and he's clearly on the team to deliver 1-2 games of work as the No.2 option until Ford is healthy. Based on that back being Wilkins rather than a former high-profile starter, it indicates Ford may get a shot to earn more carries as the season unfolds but Cleveland is heading into 2023 with the idea that they'll lean hard on Chubb and make Ford prove his worth.
Tony Pollard: We've heard the argument that J.K. Dobbins has only had more than 15 carries in a game once in his career. Dobbins also averaged 14 carries and 99 yards during Weeks 14-17 last year after returning from a midseason cleanup of his knee. When he's earned at least 13 carries in a game, Dobbins averaged 14 attempts, 93 yards, and 0.67 touchdowns.
Tony Pollard has four games during a four-year career with at least 15 carries in a game. He's had 10 games with at least 13 carries. Unlike Dobbins, Pollard's coaching staff told the media that Pollard runs out of gas with too many carries.
Whether that remains the team's assessment is unknown. To Pollard's credit, he led all qualifying running backs with 2.6 yards after contact last year, according to Pro Football Reference. At the same time, Pollard's touch count is likely at the minimum volume of touches for qualification so it may be difficult to use that stat as a strong argument in his favor for handling a lead back's workload.
None of this matters greatly if Pollard continues to make the most of his touches in the way he delivered the ninth-best running back campaign in fantasy football last year — the only fantasy RB1 last year to do it with less than 250 touches and the only back among the top 18 producers with volume that low.
I have unanswered questions about Pollard. Will he earn Ezekiel Elliott's workload as a runner? Can he handle it if he does? Will he see a substantial increase in targets and receptions?
If Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, and/or Malik Davis prove themselves, will Dallas increase their touch count to keep Pollard in the role he's always had? If they don't, will a veteran back with recent starter production find his way into the rotation? Regardless of whether any of the Cowboys' runners earn an increase in their volume, will they command enough respect from opposing defenses for Pollard to be as effective when he's on the field or will the offense become more predictable and easier to contain?
Based on Pollard's touch counts, past concerns about his ability to manage a larger workload, and that Pollard's 2022 season has a level of efficiency that may be difficult to repeat when comparing it to most of the fantasy starters in two-RB leagues, I'm not feeling Pollard at his value.
I am feeling Deuce Vaughn and/or Rico Dowdle (see below) as late-round picks or free agents worth monitoring.
Rhamondre Stevenson/Ezekiel Elliott: Here's what I shared with our staff . . .
Stevenson is a good back—one of my faves, but there’s a range of outcomes to consider. Elliott could be an insurance policy and have a specialty role, or he could split touches so both stay fresh into the stretch run of the season.
New England has had a history of running the ball as much or more than any team in the league. There’s a possibility both deliver fantasy value. I think it’s the lowest odds proposition of outcomes, but still worth knowing could happen.
I may be drafting both depending on where Elliott will be available. Before Elliott arrived, Stevenson was the only back on the Patriots with the full toolbox of skills to perform in every situation that a running back is called upon to do. Kevin Harris has that potential, and Bill Belichick noted Harris' improvement. Still, Harris isn't in Elliott's class as a player.
Elliott remains an elite pass protector. This is a huge reason he remains viable. He can be Mac Jones’ or Bailey Zappe's bodyguard in the backfield.
Elliott's red-zone success rate wasn't what it once was, but I take red-zone success rates with a grain of salt. Offensive line play in that area of the field is a different animal than simple run/pass grades. It’s a huge reason why teams spend so much time practicing red zone/green zone plays.
Elliott remains one of the best decision-makers at his position between the tackles—at least from watching his tape. He spots and avoids penetration at a high level and mitigates losses.
To coaches, mitigating losses is as important as the potential to generate strong gains. Mitigating loss is a hidden asset so vital to RB play because coaches want a back who understands scheme, down & distance, and game scenarios to keep the offense on schedule and avoid the contraction of the playbook.
The public has written off Elliott because they believe he's lost too much juice to be a productive starter. I've heard this before.
Corey Dillon was in Elliott’s position from the public’s perspective after three lesser seasons in Cincinnati. Dillon delivered RB7 value during his first year in New England and followed up with 2 top-24 fantasy seasons at his position after.
Dillon was regarded as a star who lost something and had become a plodder. This is nothing new. In addition to Dillon, here are past plodders — whether "worn down" or "entered the NFL that way" — who delivered fantasy starter production in New England's run game:
- Antowain Smith
- LeGarrette Blount
- BenJarvus Green-Ellis
- James White
- Dion Lewis
- Sony Michel
- Stevenson (big and slim version)
Elliott may not be what he was in terms of his early-career explosion as an athlete, but he's still capable. Elliott will also play in an easier run system for a good back. New England runs a lot of gap plays that require less work behind the line to set up blockers.
Elliott is still a powerful runner who finishes plays at a high level. Placing Elliott in an offense where the scheme demands less of him to create behind the line and finish strong in the crease, and Dallas fans might be spending this season rationalizing Elliott's play.
I agree with multiple points Jason Wood shares in his excellent Spotlight on Stevenson:
While there are valid arguments on both sides of the ledger, the evidence heavily tilts in favor of targeting Stevenson as one of your team's anchors.
- Game-script proof – equally skilled as a runner and receiver
- Entrusted – already given a significant role, unlike most Belichick running backs
- Proven – finished as the No. 8 running back last season
- Run Game Emphasis Assured – Belichick's teams run the ball, no matter what
- Solid Offensive Line – Rated well above average by our own Matt Bitonti and Pro Football Focus
The primary offsetting concern is the potential addition of an experienced veteran, as the current depth chart is thin, and a handful of veterans recently worked out for the team. But, as we'll discuss, even signing (most) veteran options shouldn't deter your confidence in Stevenson’s 2023 outlook . . .
Wood also notes Stevenson ranking third among runners in targets last year, Bill O'Brien's history of working well with Belichick and tailoring his offenses to personnel, and New England's commitment to the ground game as a constant with whatever offensive scheme is in town.
If the Patriots are going to run the ball anywhere near their 22-year average of 462 times a season, Stevenson and Elliott could each earn 200 rushing attempts.
Elliott's signing is to have a back who can provide redundancy of Stevenson's skills and serve as the Damien Harris option. I have a feeling you can get both as values. If Stevenson gets hurt, Elliott could make the football public eat its words.
J.K. Dobbins: Sure, Dobbins wants to get paid, but we all know at this point that no running back is getting paid what they're worth until this collective bargaining agreement expires. Dobbins is trying to stay healthy for his contract year, and his hold-in is essentially a better way to describe the Ravens being ok with Dobbins not practicing without generating questions about giving an oft-injured player without a proven workload in the NFL the star treatment during the preseason.
That's my tinfoil hat conspiracy theory on Dobbins. Regardless of whether it has legs, I believe Dobbins has the legs, vision, and new scheme to earn enough touches in his "split" with Gus Edwards to deliver top-five production at his position this year. That's Dobbins' ceiling, and I'm thrilled to take him as my RB2 for most teams.
Rico Dowdle/Deuce Vaughn: Malik Davis was No.2 on the Cowboys' first preseason depth chart. Most teams have an employee with no coaching affiliation compiling the summer depth chart. Davis' standing is meaningless.
His performance last year was not, but mitigating the weight of his potential value is the fact that Dowdle beat out Davis before getting hurt (once again), and head coach Mike McCarthy has publicly showered admiration for Dowdle's game. Dowdle has never remained healthy for an entire season — not in South Carolina and not in Dallas.
That's enough for most running backs to get cut after 1-2 seasons with a team. Dowdle is entering his fourth season, and despite missing time for three years, he still had a job. Although the film is the most important reason why Dowdle has starter talent, his ability to remain a Cowboy this long while banged up consistently is an indication that the Cowboys see talent.
Dowdle has the best dimensions of the depth chart to earn at least a lesser version of Elliott's old role. If he plays to his potential, he could force a split with Pollard that shocks the fantasy public.
Staying healthy is the big if. One thing that is appearing less iffy about the Cowboys is Deuce Vaughn earning a role in the offense. If Dowdle performs to his potential, that role could cut more into Pollard's playing time. If Dowdle gets hurt again and Davis is in the mix, I get the feeling one of the most disappointing developments that would shock the fantasy community is a three-headed Cowboys' committee.
Wide Receivers
Strategy
Target receivers in the early rounds who win against press coverage and/or play multiple roles (slot-flanker, split end-slot, etc.). The more a player has to rely on his athletic ability to win, the less refined he often is. This leads to more trap doors. Chase Claypool's game has been a trap door that earned him a ticket out of Pittsburgh.
Target incomplete receiver types later in drafts. If you do, target the ones who have multiple starter talents at receiver and tight end and an excellent veteran quarterback as a support system.
Tyreek Hill: Although my rankings don't reflect it, I'm a little worried about Tyreek Hill, and it goes deeper than his boating incident, which appears to be a non-issue for the NFL. Last year, the Chargers employed a defensive look that exposed Tua Tagovailoa's lack of arm velocity on intermediate throws to the perimeter. The coverage placed multiple defenders in the path of Hill's in-breaking routes with the intent of forcing Tagovailoa to make the sideline throw.
Instead, Tagovailoa continued to target Hill in suboptimal circumstances while refusing to attempt targets outside. Although Hill managed 4 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown in this game, Tagovailoa's 40-percent completion percentage was his lowest rate to Hill all year and by a healthy margin.
If more teams adopt this coverage look, Hill's catch rate and catch volume could earn enough of a dip that he won't be worth his WR4 ADP and top-10 overall value in 2023 fantasy drafts. Travis Kelce and Stefon Diggs appear more attractive for their safety — even if their ceilings aren't as high.
Brandon Aiyuk: There will be a changing of the guard to the 49ers' wide receiver hierarchy in 2023, with Aiyuk taking over as the production leader in the passing offense and relegating Deebo Samuel to second or third in the totals column. If McCaffrey has a record season, Samuel could fall to fourth if the rest of the depth chart remains healthy. Aiyuk has come out the other side of Kyle Shanahan's developmental demands and looks ready to become a fantasy WR1 for most formats.
Keenan Allen: I've always loved Allen's game. My pal Ryan Riddle, a standout defensive end at Cal and former NFL linebacker, often said that Allen was the type of athlete who could add or drop weight and give a team a contested-catch flanker with physicality or a deer-footed slot receiver.
Now 31 years old, Allen could be earning more playing time at flanker to account for rookie Quentin Johnston, who runs excellent short and intermediate but has significant issues catching vertical targets. If this is the case, does Allen still have the athletic ability to perform at flanker as well as he has in the slot? If we learn that Allen will be the flanker more often than the slot option, I'll likely be selling my interests in Allen.
Michael Thomas: I can't quit Thomas because he's an elite worker, and he's obsessive about the game. He has been healthy for camp, and halfway through, all signs are a go. Derek Carr has the skills to support multiple fantasy starters in the passing game.
This is purely an anecdotal point I'm about to make: I often find myself one year early when predicting big seasons for players. I have a gut feeling I was one year early on both Carr and Thomas. If Thomas returns to form, I don't think that hurts Chris Olave much, if at all. I also think Carr could still support another fantasy option at tight end, a third receiver, or a high-volume receiver at the running back position.
The caliber of the Saints' offensive line bolsters Carr's chances for a career year. Thomas' health history is high-risk, but if you embrace risk without the need for me or another fantasy writer to hold your hand in emails, Thomas remains a compelling investment — even more so than last year because his health has been more stable this offseason.
Courtland Sutton: At SMU, Sutton had significant flaws and lapses of technical consistency/effort as a route runner and receiver. As an NFL player, Sutton's catch-point issues have not disappeared, either.
A 56.5-percent catch rate during Sutton's 5-year career is not ideal unless you're making him a target hog. On the surface, that's the plan. The Broncos' staff and Sutton have told the media that Sutton is studying Thomas' tape from Sean Payton's Saints offense because he'll be playing this role.
That sounds great until he began watching the tape in mid-June, not the moment the Broncos hired Payton. If Sutton were a top route runner, mid-June would be fine. The same would hold true if Sutton was known as an obsessive worker.
Mid-June for a lackluster route runner with hands issues and trade rumors involving him throughout the offseason sounds more like wishful thinking or a sales job to the league that Sutton has a market value.
For as long as Sutton remains in Denver, he'll have the opportunities to shine. He's also available at a point in drafts where I'd rather take a shot on a player with a higher upside or a player with a higher floor and lower ceiling than Sutton.
For example . . .
Kadarius Toney: I'm not budging on Toney since I explained his risks while sharing he's headed for a career year. Immaturity and injury histories are significant risks, but I think those risks are baked into his ADP. The training camp injury has many taking Toney off their boards despite the fact he'll be ready early in the season, if not Week 1.
Skyy Moore is the known commodity of the summer but not in the regular season. Toney is the known commodity in the regular season when healthy but not during training camp. I place more weight on the in-season work, but it appears most do not.
Although history hasn't shown it thus far with Mahomes' past distribution of targets, this is the year where I could see Moore and Toney both offering strong fantasy value alongside Kelce.
Odell Beckham Jr: My dog, Sir Hugo, has a big case of FOMO (fear of missing out) in life. I have a big case of FOMO with passing up Beckham. I am resisting the urge to take him because Skyy Moore, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, and — when I feel like taking a big gamble — Anthony Richardson are available in the same range.
Still, I remember how good Beckham can be, especially with a full training camp and a good NFL quarterback throwing him the ball. I'm almost relieved when the names mentioned above are off the board because I feel as if I have no choice but to take a chance on him.
Perhaps a better overall message is to invest in one of Baltimore's three wide receivers — Beckham, Zay Flowers, and Rashod Bateman. Then again, the best overall message is that my Spidey senses are tingling about the Baltimore passing game and I can't tell whether it's to bet on their success or run far away and fast.
Richie James and Justyn Ross: If you draft in leagues with 20-man rosters, the Chiefs reserve receivers who have a shot of contributing on the field are worth keeping atop your free agent Rolodex. My favorite two are James and Ross. If you read this column with any frequency, you've known this for at least two years. In James' case, even longer.
James is earning first-team reps and has more paths to prominence in this offense because of his experience playing multiple positions and his past work with Patrick Mahomes II. Like Toney and Moore, James is a dynamic open-field runner, and he's a better route runner inside and outside than credited.
Both have the skills to help you this year if called upon. If I'm going to bank on who has the best season of the two, James is my choice. The player I'm stashing in dynasty formats is Ross. I drafted Ross in numerous leagues last year and kept him on my rosters. If Marquez Valdes-Scantling's drops catch up with him, Ross could be the beneficiary this year, but Ross's true ceiling will need another year or two of manifestation.
Tight Ends
Strategy
Kelce, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson have receiving upside commensurate with top-24 fantasy wide receivers in premium (1.5) PPR formats. In traditional PPR formats, Kelce has the most upside of performing like a starting wide receiver. If you stink at selecting late-round tight ends, but every fantasy analyst you follow is preaching the idea, resist the urge. Either roll with one of these three or take the value that may come when GMs are too smart for their own good and allow the likes of Dallas Goedert, Chigoziem Okownkwo, and Dalton Kincaid to slide to you at a good value.
If you're thinking late-round tight ends are for you, I'll give you a pair to target.
Dalton Kincaid: The sooner you view him in the model of a wide receiver, the faster you'll escape getting weighted down by the history of rookie production for tight ends — most of them with true tight end responsibilities that Kincaid won't have as much of. Kincaid will be one of the three most targeted receivers in this offense.
I'm betting Kincaid will be the second-most targeted option and generated 1,000 yards and 6-8 touchdowns as a rookie. Kincaid's production will threaten Mike Ditka's rookie marks. If I'm wrong, he's still likely to deliver to his ADP as TE12 in the same range as players who mostly have lower fantasy ceilings, like Jerick McKinnon, Dalton Schultz, Jameson Williams, and Damien Harris.
Chigoziem Okonkwo: Is Round 12 the "late rounds?" In most of my leagues, that's the middle rounds. Even so, Okonkwo as TE16 could wind up as a laughable value in hindsight.
The numbers from the past scare people away as much as the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. Okonkwo is in an offense that averaged the third-fewest passing attempts per game last season, and they have long been among the worst in down-and-distance situations where passing isn't considered an unfavorable course of action.
Last season, the Titans averaged 26.8 attempts per game. Tannehill averaged 27 attempts as the starter and did it with an uninspiring crew of wide receivers:
- Robert Woods: 30 years old and coming off an ACL tear.
- Treylon Burks: A rookie who didn't arrive at camp in good shape and had much to learn beyond running fast and winning jump balls.
- Kyle Philips: A rookie who the team planned to use extensively until he couldn't stay healthy and ultimately missed most of the season.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: A career reserve with a 50-percent catch rate last year.
- A bunch of unproven second and third-year players with little NFL experience.
The last time Ryan Tannehill had a receiving corps with talent on par with the 2023 Titans was 2015, when Tannehill averaged 36.6 targets per game. That figure would have made his attempts the eighth-highest in the league last year.
It won't take much for the Titans to throw 7-9 times more per game, with Burks and Onkownkwo a year better than they were and Hopkins in the fold. Last year Okownkwo averaged 4.42 targets per game after Week 12. If he averages one more target per week this year, he's earning a similar range of opportunities as Evan Engram (5.76), Dalton Schultz (5.9), David Njoku (5.7), George Kittle (5.7), and Dallas Goedert (5.75) last year — all top-12 fantasy tight ends.
Engram and Kittle were top-five options. Okonkwo's not that far away from earning consistently meaningful targets.
This increase is a reasonable expectation. In fact, I'm only projecting an increase to 4.7 targets per game while ramping up the touchdowns to eight. The rationale here is the attention Hopkins and Burks will receive in the passing game on the outside combined with the effectiveness of play action to Derrick Henry.
Eight touchdowns is a difference-making figure. Seven scores got Cole Kmet's otherwise pedestrian numbers into the No.8 spot of fantasy producers at the position last year and third-most of the top-12 options. There were only four tight ends last year with at least six scores.
There are two viable production paths for Onkonkwo in this offense: 1) He's the third or fourth option in terms of volume, but he wins consistently on schemed plays and check-downs as well as a focal point in the red zone, which leads to Kmet-like production. 2) He's featured more on chunk plays when featured (like George Kittle, who averaged 12.8 yards per catch) and in the red zone. Like Kittle, Okownkwo excels as a ball carrier.
The Titans used Okonkwo in several spots last year: outside, from the slot, on the wing, in-line, and as a fullback. It's admirable that he picked up these alignments as fast as he did, but if Rob Gronkowski (who recently told the Kelce brothers on their podcast) played slow as a rookie because he was thinking his way through these variations, odds are likely Okonkwo was also thinking.
This year, he's playing faster and with good energy, a sign that he has truly learned the offense. While I'd rather take the chance on Kincaid, Okonkwo also has a high ceiling at a similar draft-day value.
Sam LaPorta: He's more wide receiver than tight end in terms of routes he'll run. He can win on perimeter routes against nickel corners and safeties. He's the third mid-round option with a high upside.
Tyler Conklin: Another wide receiver type with skills one-on-one and now playing with a quarterback with a history of exploiting players with these advantages. He's my favorite late-round option.
Jake Ferguson: One of my favorite rookie tight ends in last year's draft. Ferguson has a similar profile as Dallas Schultz but is a better player after the catch and at the catch point. He'll become Dak Prescott's favorite in the flats and up the seam.
Good luck!