Silly FAntasy GMs...
Did you really think this feature would be about Rashid Shaheed having massive fantasy success? C'mon now, Shaheed was a rookie UDFA in 2022 with 28 catches and 2 touchdowns in 11 games. Does that sound like a player who is a vital part of the offensive puzzle in New Orleans?
If you suspend your dogged pursuit of individual performances that drives your fantasy life for a few minutes and embrace the team game of football, you might just discover that Shaheed is that player—even if he doesn't become a fantasy starter.
Don't write off Shaheed, either. He is a compelling late-round value for fantasy GMs this summer. In fact, most of the Saints' offense offers draft-day values across the board at quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, and running back.
That's the true focus of this week's Gut Check: Shaheed's skills make him the component that could take New Orleans to heights it hasn't seen in over a decade.
Why Is Shaheed the Key to the SAints' Success?
Let's begin with the list of talents on the roster that we consider more valuable from a fantasy perspective.
Chris Olave topped 1,000 yards as a rookie and is one of the best young wideouts in the league. Three-time Pro Bowl option Michael Thomas is finally expected to be healthy and on a mission to prove that he's still a 100-catch, 1,300-yard performer.
Derek Carr is absolutely the key to the Saints achieving at least a baseline of offensive success. He has been on a verge of a fantasy breakthrough with over 7.5 yards per attempt and no worse than a 67 percent completion percentage during three of the past four years.
Alvin Kamara, the team's most versatile weapon, is expected to miss a significant amount of starts due to an assault charge that's going to trial. He might be the most dangerous weapon for New Orleans. Jamaal Williams showed last year that he's capable of red-zone excellence in addition to displaying the versatility of an every-down runner.
Don't forget the Saints are three-deep at the position. If necessary, Kendre Miller has the talent to become a lead NFL back if called upon.
Add tight ends Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau to the mix — two players capable of earning fantasy TE1 value — and you have seven options with a reasonable shot to deliver starter production in fantasy leagues. The realistic upside scenario is 3-5 delivering this production.
Shaheed is the key to the Saints' success, but I'm not talking about the minimum criteria for a successful season. I'm talking about the potential for a wildly successful year. Carr hitting on all cylinders and finally delivering as a top-fantasy producer who supports 4-5 strong fantasy starters.
Keep that fantasy-oriented focus on individuals suspended just a little longer. Wildly successful offenses in real football stretch the field in multiple dimensions with their personnel and force opposing defenses into difficult choices.
Do we roll our coverage toward Thomas and leave Olave one-on-one?
Do we double Olave and use a high-low coverage with multiple defenders on Thomas and give up a size or speed mismatch with one of the Saints' tight ends or backs?
Do we play tight man-to-man and blitz Carr?
These and several more in-game choices depend on the game script, down and distance, and the talents of the offensive personnel. In order to create these potential binds for the defense, the offense must possess one component that can exploit mistakes or force the defense to overcompensate in one area of the field.
That component is speed. Although an overrated commodity for most roles on offense, it's vital for a team to have at least one option who can force defenses into these tough decisions.
When an offense has two or more, it accelerates the potential for that unit to deliver above and beyond its baseline expectation.
WHAT SHAHEED BRINGS TO THE OFFENSE
Shaheed is the key to the Saints' offense because as that second speedster in the receiving corps, he's the final component that can transform a competent offense into a dynamic, top-end unit.
Having one speedster on a team can open the field for underneath options. Olave is the Saints' primary option with the speed and route skills to get open anywhere on the field with any pattern. He will command the attention of opposing defenses as the initial read and force coverage to make him the first priority.
Without a second speedster like Shaheed, Olave can run off defenders who otherwise might be in the area to help with Michael Thomas, Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, or the running backs executing downfield routes. However, many opposing defenses will live with the strategy of limiting Olave and forcing the Saints to piece together 10-, 12-, and 15-play drives in order to score.
A healthy Thomas and two good tight ends can enhance the chances of converting long drives. Without Shaheed, the Saints have enough options to deliver competent offensive production. With Shaheed, they can make opponents pay for paying too much attention to Olave.
It's no longer as easy for the defense to force protracted drives with Shaheed's field-flipping skills. Shaheed and Olave can also stretch the field vertically and horizontally within the same play, increasing the risk of more coverage breakdowns that benefits their teammates.
Because Olave is an all-around monster in the making as a primary receiver and Thomas is one of the most skilled options within a range of 25 yards, Shaheed doesn't need to be a fully-realized wideout. At a minimum, he can be what he was last year and still help the Saints become an offensive force.
Based on last year's film, Shaheed earned the trust of the team as a vertical threat who earns separation in the vertical game and as an underneath option against off-coverage.
Here's what's notable from the film above:
- Shaheed understands how to sell his speed to set up defenders during the initial part of his route before the break (his stem).
- His setup of defenders during his stems is subtle and efficient, which is vital for maintaining the speed to separate against off-coverage defenders.
- Shaheed sets up defenders, attacking the opponent's early post-snap position to reinforce that the defender should remain in the area he thinks he should be defending.
- He knows how to efficiently create red herrings with his setups to make the defender think he's a step ahead of the receiver's plan when he's actually a step behind.
- Shaheed will work with his quarterback to get open when the pocket breaks down.
- There is a promising moment with Shaheed against tight man-to-man coverage at the line that reveals a technically and conceptually sound approach to defeating press-man coverage.
Little of what you've seen above makes Shaheed a rising star. Most of these takeaways are things you'll find with any NFL receiver with the skills to contribute on the field.
What matters is that Shaheed delivered with this consistent level of route nuance as a rookie. The role the Saints gave Shaheed wasn't too difficult for him to perform as if he was still at Cal.
His initial acclimation is a good sign that he can be reliable within the same role in 2023. What he did against man-to-man coverage is an indication there's room for growth within his game to become more than a vertical threat.
It's uncommon to see young receivers take an inside release on a route where they are trying to earn an outside position during the initial stem. This requires skills and confidence. Shaheed illustrated both against the Buccaneers' defender. This was a conceptually-advanced release.
A lot of vertical threats succeed in college football with lackluster technique at the catch point. Shaheed has good fundamentals at the catch point. He has an efficient and wide catch radius.
Shaheed is more than capable of serving as the Saints' vertical enforcer when opposing defenses cheat toward Olave and Thomas. This could unlock the ceiling for this offense to reach a tier of production it hasn't seen since Drew Brees was still in his prime.
What we have yet to see is how much Shaheed has improved during the offseason. The potential is there for him to become a more well-rounded route runner and a more physical option after the catch — Shaheed didn't do much as a runner against contact.
If Shaheed can become a bigger threat against physical coverage at the line, at the catch point, and as a ball carrier, then he could also be vital to this offense's success if Thomas can't stay healthy. Based on Thomas' ADP, most in the fantasy community have little faith in Thomas returning to form, preferring to take the risk with a draft-day discount — if at all.
If Thomas gets hurt, Shaheed must deliver a more advanced level of play to keep opponents off-balance. The potential is there, but we'll have to see if Shaheed's offseason work will translate.
The Best Fantasy Offenses Support Multiple receiving options
What if Shaheed, Olave, and Thomas stay healthy? Aren't there too many options for a quarterback to support? No, and I've been hammering this point home for 20 years. Let's look at some recent history of quarterbacks supporting at least three top fantasy options.
- Joe Burrow supported the No.11 RB, No.10 WR, and No 19 WR in 2022.
- Tom Brady supported the No.6 RB, No.7 TE, No.9 WR, and No.13 WR in 2021.
- Aaron Rodgers supported the No.1 WR, No.4 TE, and No.5 RB in 2020.
- Dak Prescott supported the No.3 RB, No.10 WR, No.14 WR, and No.11 TE in 2019.
- Patrick Mahomes II supported the No. 4 RB, No.3 WR, and No.1 TE in 2018.
This is not a complete list from the past five years. An exhaustive list isn't necessary to make the point. Each team listed had at least one deep threat that made opposing defenses pay if they consistently tried to cheat their coverage elsewhere. The teams mentioned above that had four fantasy options had two productive players whose speed could torch coverages.
Why New Orleans Has the Potential to Become a Top Offense
If Shaheed and Olave can stay healthy, their speed will provide two points of tremendous pressure on opposing defenses. Whether it's a healthy Thomas, the running back room, or the Saints' two tight ends, the tandem of Shaheed and Olave will widen zones or create one-on-one mismatches that lead to more breaks in coverage.
The Saints have the capacity to become a big-play offense that can move the ball in any fashion. This is the best collection of skill talent at receiver, tight end, and running back that the Saints have had since Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and Mark Ingram were the core pieces for Drew Brees' 5,177-yard and 43-touchdown campaign in 2012.
Carr has proven he can win downfield, he's working with his best technicians at receiver since he had Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, and the Saints' porous pass defense will force the offense to throw the ball.
The hidden factor driving this potential is the Saints' offensive line. Last year, New Orleans suffered multiple injuries across its line, but there's potential for this unit to develop into a team strength.
It's not just Ross Jackson at SI making this point. Footballguys staff writer Matt Bitonti has the Saints fifth overall in his June rankings. Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk is still a competent starter. Before getting hurt, Cesar Ruiz emerged last year. Second-year tackle Trevor Penning is a former first-round pick who the Saints believe 'the sky is the limit' for his potential.
Bitonti projects this line as a top-10 unit on the ground and through the air. Carr thrives as a play-action passer. With two speedsters at receiver combined with a deep running back room, and Thomas' skill to beat anyone in single coverage within 25 yards of the line of scrimmage, New Orleans could be that hidden fantasy gem in 2023.
What to monitor This Summer For FAntasy Buy-IN
Health. Plain and simple. The offensive line cannot be limping into the season. If it's healthy, the Saints will at least be a top-15 passing offense, regardless of the health of Michael Thomas.
If Thomas, Olave, and Shaheed stay healthy, New Orleans could emerge as a top-five unit.
The Range of Outcomes for Shaheed
Fantasy WR5 territory as the floor if... Shaheed remains healthy and the Saints repeat last year's woes along its offensive line, at quarterback, and injuries at receiver. It's more likely Shaheed will deliver on the cusp of fantasy WR3/WR4 territory if you use Weeks 12-18 as the basis of your projection. This was the period of time when Shaheed earned consistent and meaningful targets.
Fantasy WR4 territory as the floor if...Olave gets hurt, Thomas stays healthy, and the offensive line is banged up. Shaheed and some combination of Tre'Quan Smith, Juwan Johnson, and A.T. Perry will have to compensate for what the Saints lose with Olave missing. Thomas can command the top corner and Shaheed can stretch the field, but Shaheed's route skills will have to improve significantly for him to emerge beyond WR4 value in this scenario because there's no deep threat opposite Shaheed to loosen up the coverage in his direction.
Fantasy WR3 territory as the floor if...Olave, Thomas, and the offensive line stay healthy. This is the scenario where Olave and Thomas force defenses to bracket one and put their best man-to-man corner on the other. This will generate more shot plays for Shaheed because he'll earn quality mismatches against safeties or nickel corners.
If Shaheed earns WR3 value, he's probably an ideal best-ball option because he may deliver most of that value in clusters of big games. However, his work across the middle and in the shallow passing game was promising enough that he might generate one big play every 2-3 games that account for 40-80 yards while generating 30-50 yards per week with short and intermediate routes.
Fantasy WR2 territory as the floor if...Olave or Thomas gets hurt, the line remains healthy, and Shaheed shows signs during training camp of improving his skills against press coverage. If Shaheed is consistently beating Marcus Lattimore or Paulson Adebo in training camp when they play tight man-to-man and he's winning in a similar fashion during the preseason, Shaheed could emerge as a top-24 producer in this offense.
I'd bet on Shaheed as a fantasy WR4 with WR3 upside that you can get at the end of most drafts. However, I'd also bet on at least 1-2 components of the Saints' offense because of the talent of the skill positions and the potential of this offensive line.
If Shaheed can function as that second speed threat to enforce coverage binds on opposing defenses, the Saints' offense could be uttered in the same breath as the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, and Chargers as a target-rich environment for fantasy GMs.