Fantasy Football Is Afraid of Kadarius Toney
The Kanas City Chiefs have been a predictable fantasy offense during the Patrick Mahomes II era. Based on the past five years, you can bet on the following as a GM:
- A top-five fantasy quarterback with QB1 upside.
- The likely No.1 overall fantasy tight end with the No.2 overall spot as his floor.
- A top-10 fantasy receiver with a top-three upside if the receiver plays at least 15 games.
We know Mahomes and Travis Kelce are two-thirds of what is essentially a tasty pie of fantasy passing production divided into three humongous slices. The big question is, who will own the receiver slice in the Chiefs' offense, or is it?
I don't think it is. GM Brett Veach broke down Toney's game and claimed the sky's the limit.
"[Offensive coordinator] Matt Nagy seems to be one of the most staunch believers that Toney has the talent and ability to take up the mantle of the team's top receiver in 2023." Veach and Nagy note Toney's intelligence for the game, how fast he learned the offense last year, and his underutilized vertical talents.
Still, Toney is barely valued among the top 40 receivers in fantasy drafts as we head into training camp. There's no way around it, I think fantasy football is afraid of the answer being Toney.
Toney has a reputation for immaturity that spans back to his years with Florida. Brian Daboll ran Toney out of town in New York, and instead of taking the high road, Toney told the media that he plans to wear his Super Bowl ring on his middle finger as a way of flipping off the Giants for "troll[ing] me."
It's not breaking news that many wide receivers have hair-trigger egos. However, combining that state of mind with a lengthy injury history of soft-tissue ailments that may have to do with his dynamic movement style as the top man on a depth chart with promising young options who could thrive in Toney's place, and fantasy GMs aren't embracing Toney as a fantasy weapon with every-week starter value.
When I sense public fear, I see a potential opportunity.
While Toney's tape isn't the stuff of most primary receivers starring for NFL teams, the potential for quick and significant growth is there. Even if it doesn't happen, Toney can be who he is in Kansas City and still be the most productive wide receiver on the team.
My Admiration for Toney Isn't New...
Before showing you why Toney doesn't have to become a route-runner along the lines of Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs, or JaMarr Chase to become Kansas City's WR1, let's begin with what Toney offers an offense as an athlete.
Coming out of Florida, Toney compared favorably to Golden Tate but with better technique as a pass-catcher. One of the significant underlying factors in Toney's game is his tracking of the football.
Ball-tracking may seem fundamental to receiver play, but the NFL hasn't drafted as if it is. Sammie Coates is a recent example of players drafted over the years who excel after the catch as open-field runners but are reduced to gadget players because they can't track the ball consistently enough in the vertical game, and it prevents them from becoming match-up weapons who can win one-on-one.
Toney's explosive and dynamic footwork, as well as his athletic mobility, also bode well for his development as a route runner. Although his reliance and dynamic movements with wide and violent steps well outside his frame could generate big plays, it also led to slips and the potential for soft-tissue injuries.
We saw this happen during his rookie year with the Giants. By Year Two, Toney's reputation for nagging injuries and off-field immaturity was fodder for Giants' new head coach Brian Daboll's leadership agenda.
Why Brian Dabol had to make an example of Toney
Daboll inherited immature players at the wide receiver position in Toney and Kenny Golladay. Immaturity is seen as a negative, and it can be. But in this case, it’s more about youth, lack of perspective, and (at least in Golladay's case) being unintentionally enabled to think they are better than they are.
I have to believe that when Daboll took the Giants’ gig, he saw Toney as the most salvageable. Golladay earned a second deal off the backs of Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. These veterans created optimal matchups for Golladay, and he earned targets from a tough, big-armed passer in Matthew Stafford.
Obviously, Golladay has NFL skills to produce at a high level, but he needs more surrounding talent to achieve that productivity than a true primary receiver. Unfortunately, the Giants expected Golladay to be a primary option and it was an unrealistic expectation.
Gabriel Davis’ touters among NFL organizations and fantasy players in dynasty formats should take heed. (Also see Alvin Harper and Peerless Price for additional historical context).
Toney is an immense talent who can beat anyone one-on-one. Combined with his ball tracking and open-field skills, he has many of the traits to become a primary receiver. Behavior and habits in and out of the facility were the forms of maturity questions for Toney.
Combine these two factors of injury and maturity, and it presents head coaches with a choice. In almost every situation of this type, a veteran head coach prefers reliability to mercurial behavior — even when it is high-upside talent. Daboll knew he faced these challenges with Toney this heading into the summer and set a clear boundary that sends a message to the players and sets the culture.
Daboll likely set the tone this summer about an open competition to see if he could get both Golladay and Toney to mature in the ways they needed to. For Golladay, it was likely getting him to understand that a big contract doesn’t mean there’s nothing to prove or improve upon.
The drivers of Golladay’s success in Detroit, combined with his second contract, enabled a perspective on him that he has less to prove than he actually does. A deal of his type can reinforce both positive and negative behaviors and that’s something that a personnel department must be cognizant of. Golladay’s big contract likely makes him entrenched in this thinking that he deserves to be on the field even if the front office made the mistake of paying a complementary weapon to play a primary role.
Daboll likely knew this heading in New York. He had to think that he might have more success reaching Toney with this message and if he could do the same with Golladay, even better, but not the primary objective.
After all, if Daboll is benching the highly-paid free agent in Golladay to enforce boundaries set for the team, then no one would be immune, even an early-round draft pick like Toney. This also sends a message to the team about the culture Daboll is establishing and that he’s being fair.
It’s a great move to make in year one as a coach. It’s also wise to target a position that was bloated salary-wise relative to its production and deflect some of the attention away from Daniel Jones.
Kansas City got a player in Toney who can be a top-five receiver in the NFL if he becomes a more efficient mover and grows up—a common issue with many people in their early 20s.
Toney: A Mecole Hardman Upgrade, not a Tyreek Hill Replacement
Toney’s contact balance, creativity in the open field, and ball-tracking are fantastic. To this point of his career, the Florida Gators, New York Giants, and Kansas City Chiefs have taken the most expedient route to leverage Toney's ability.
When you examine Toney's performances in the NFL, you'll see the Giants and Chiefs feature him on a heavy diet of throw-outs, screens, crossers, and routes that settle into an open zone. When Toney earns a man-to-man target, it's usually against a safety, and it's part of a schemed look to generate a matchup advantage for a jump ball.
Based solely on past usage, it's safer to project Toney as a Mecole Hardman rather than a Tyreek Hill replacement. This is a good thing for fantasy GMs if they had a more nuanced view of this statement. However, fantasy GMs think in rankings and stats and they are equating Toney with a perennial bye-week value rather than an early-round priority starter.
They aren't considering how much of an upgrade Toney is to Hardman. Both players are speedsters with excellent open-field skills who can earn the occasional deep target but are used more often as gadget players and running backs in space.
There are three significant differences between Toney and Hardman. Toney has always been a far superior pass-catcher against tight man-to-man coverage and jump balls. He has more promise as a route runner against tight man-to-man coverage at the line than Hardman. He is also a more physical runner after the catch who operates better in tight space.
Here are 11 minutes of tape on Toney: How the Giants used him, how the Chiefs initially used him, and moments that illustrate why Brett Veach and Matt Nagy see the potential for additional growth with Toney's game.
Click on any of the links below to go directly to the play in the bullet points or use the time stamp to manually navigate with the video above.
- (0:00) - Toney's open-field creativity
- (0:36) - Toney's technically-sound attack of the football that's the foundation for his skills against tight coverage.
- (1:14) - Toney's skills to work open for his quarterback against zone coverage.
- (1:47) - How the Giants and Chiefs create space for Toney with receiver alignments and Toney's skill in tight quarters.
- (2:46) - Toney's promise for additional route and release development against tight man-to-man coverage.
- (4:01) - Toney's promise for additional release development and skillful tracking of the ball to set up yards after the catch.
- (5:09) - Toney's footwork generates separation in tight quarters.
- (5:35) - How the Chiefs use Travis Kelce and Toney interchangeably in terms of receiving roles to confuse opponents.
- (7:42) - How the Chiefs align Kelce and Toney on the same side of the formation to create matchup advantages for Toney.
- (8:52) - How the Chiefs align Kelce and Toney on the same side and use Toney as an RB to create matchup advantages for Toney.
- (10:16) - How the Chiefs align Kelce and Toney on opposite sides of the formation to generate open zones for Toney.
Based solely on last year's tape and this year's personnel, the Chiefs have enough talent to leverage Toney in the same way, with room for greater production in 2023. It's Toney's peak upside potential that's most tantalizing. This comes down to what's between Toney's ears.
Wisdom and intelligence are different qualities that people often see as interchangeable or mutually inclusive. Toney has been a prominent example otherwise. NFL coaches praise Toney's intelligence and ability to pick up offenses quickly. At the same time, there are enough anecdotes in Toney's file that illustrate the risk of Toney imploding his career with immature behavior.
There are three ways I view Toney's career path at this point:
- Toney implodes with behavior that progressively costs him opportunities to leverage his talent.
- Toney becomes a reliable option whose game has minimal growth as a route runner, but he's a great match for the Chiefs' offense.
- Toney develops his one-on-one game against tight man-to-man coverage and becomes a true primary receiver with elite production potential.
Based on what we're hearing about Toney's offseason, all three paths remain in play. Toney's recent trolling of the Giants isn't a major issue. It may amount to nothing, but we may later learn it was a symptom of worse underlying behavior. We just don't know at this point, which is true.
Toney has earned praise for his offseason work, and the Chiefs have demonstrated that they can use him as a productive component of the offense. And Veach and Nagy have noted Toney's ceiling is higher than what the NFL has seen thus far from his game.
Statistical Projections for Toney
Heading into July, Toney is my No.15 PPR receiver on the board. Here's his projected production for 2023:
- 111 targets (second most for the Chiefs)
- 83 catches (a 74.8 percent catch rate)
- 1,010 receiving yards
- 12.2 yards per catch
- 7 receiving touchdowns
- 10 rushing attempts
- 118 rushing yards
- 2 rushing touchdowns
- 249.8 PPR fantasy points
For a frame of reference, the top-producing wide receiver in Kansas City's offense has averaged the following totals during Mahomes' five years as the Chiefs' starter:
- 123.8 targets
- 84.2 receptions (68 percent catch rate)
- 1,157.4 receiving yards
- 13.75 yards per catch
- 9.2 receiving touchdowns
- 10.4 rushing attempts
- 78.6 rushing yards
- 0.6 rushing touchdowns
I'm betting on Toney having a higher catch rate than the five-yard average for the leading wide receiver because I'm projecting Toney's usage to look like a blend of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. Last year, Smith-Schuster caught 77 percent of his targets and averaged 11.96 yards per catch. For the past two years, Hardman caught between 71-74 percent of his targets and averaged 11.8 yards per catch.
Smith-Schuster and Hardman earned higher catch rates than Hill and also averaged lower yardage per catch and significantly lower averages with their depth of targets. I'm expecting Toney to operate in a role that lies somewhere in between Hill's vertical prowess and Smith-Schuster and Hardman's high-volume targets in the shallower ranges of the field.
Expect Toney to earn more vertical targets than Hardman and Smith-Schuster but not in the range of Hill. Toney will earn most of his touchdowns in or near the red zone and not as many as Hill in the vertical passing game.
At the same time, expect Toney to earn at least Hill's rushing volume based on his skill set that rivals Hill's and exceeds Hardman's past rushing outputs.
The idea of Toney as a 90-touch, 1,100-yard, 9-score producer from scrimmage is in line with the five-year average of the players in the role projected for Toney. In fact, it's 100 yards lower than the average.
If Toney plays 16 games -- sitting out one due to injury or rest in preparation for the postseason -- these projections are 5.3 touches, 68.75 yards, and 0.5625 touchdowns per game. We're talking about 4-6 catches and/or 1-2 carries per game. This is half of a touch and 10.5 yards less per game than the Chiefs' five-year average in the same role.
If Toney develops into a one-on-one matchup problem, we could see him generating the higher four-yard averages of Hill, which could vault Toney into the top five fantasy receivers in the game.
If Toney becomes nothing more than a Hardman replacement, then expect values closer to 55 touches, 660 yards, and 6 touchdowns -- or 213 fantasy points in PPR formats. Last year, 213 points would have placed a receiver just ahead of Jerry Jeudy for 22nd at the position. The year before, it would have been just behind Terry McLaurin for 26th, and three years ago, it would have been just ahead of Curtis Samuel for 23rd.
If my projected 249.8 points for Toney are closer to the mark, he would have been just ahead of Mike Evans and Jaylen Waddle for the 11th spot in 2020 and 2021, respectively, and just ahead of JaMarr Chase for 10th among receivers last year.
Where to Consider Drafting Toney
Many will view these projections as Toney's ceiling, and given what scares them about the player, they'd much rather wait until rounds 8-10 before taking a chance.
While reasonable, I'd rather view Toney as a likely bargain who you won't want to let slide past you in the seventh or eighth round when others are considering players of equal-to-greater risk:
- Diontae Johnson - In the final year of his rookie deal, there are other weapons for Kenny Pickett to value more. Will Pickett improve enough to support Johnson's upside?
- Jahan Dotson - Could Dotson become the first or second priority in this offense? Sure, but Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel will have something to say about it. And the quarterback situation is in flux.
- Treylon Burks - Who is throwing him the ball, and will the level of quarterback play remain consistent all year?
- Evan Engram - The tight end had a terrific year. But Calin Ridley will steal some targets, and there are equal-or-better tight-end options later.
- Alvin Kamara - Will Kamara even play the entire year due to his legal troubles?
- Pat Freiermuth - Again, there are equal-or-better TE options later in drafts.
- Quentin Johnston - Probably the third option, at best, in this passing game if all Chargers receivers remain healthy -- and a rookie.
- Brian Robinson - Likely in a timeshare with Antonio Gibson
- James Cook - Perhaps he becomes the next Austin Ekeler. Perhaps he's more of a middle-class James White, with Damien Harris handling the bulk of the volume.
- Zach Charbonnet - Like Cook, Kamara, and Robinson, there's a fantasy RB1 upside with Charbonnet, but only if Ken Walker III gets hurt. Plus, you're likely to get one of these backs at the turn while also getting Toney.
I like Toney's upside every bit as much as the players listed above. In fact, I like it enough to consider him in the middle of the sixth round, considering these are the current options:
- Jordan Addison - It's a push considering Addison's skills and working in an established offense opposite an elite target (just like Toney). I'd opt for the veteran.
- Marquise Brown - Colt McCoy or Clayton Tune could be targeting Brown for up to half the year.
- Dalvin Cook - Expect his value to climb or dip dramatically depending on where he lands if he signs prior to training camp.
- Tyler Lockett - This is too low for Lockett, and yes, I'd clearly take Lockett over Toney because of his higher floor and equal ceiling.
- Darren Waller - Can he stay healthy and get on the same page with Daniel Jones? That's a shakier floor than Toney's.
- Kirk Cousins - A safe pick, but you can get Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and/or Derek Carr later.
If you're bullish about Toney, reaching for him in the back half of the sixth round looks reasonable to me. If you are open to his potential success but not the type to key on a specific player as much as the value, Toney is worth consideration in rounds seven and eight.
In some drafts, he may fall as far as round nine, but that's likely an exceptional case.
Whether it's round six or round nine, there are a lot of reasons why you shouldn't be afraid of Toney in this range. If anything, there are compelling reasons you should be afraid of the fantasy team that values Toney as a sixth- or seventh-round steal.