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Tilted Toward Success

Few early-round targets are as divisive as Rhamondre Stevenson. Even among our staff, some adore him, while others prefer to avoid him.

While there are valid arguments on both sides of the ledger, the evidence heavily tilts in favor of targeting Stevenson as one of your team's anchors.

• Game-script proof – equally skilled as a runner and receiver
• Entrusted – already given a significant role, unlike most Belichick running backs
• Proven – finished as the No. 8 running back last season
• Run Game Emphasis Assured – Belichick's teams run the ball, no matter what
• Solid Offensive Line – Rated well above average by our own Matt Bitonti and Pro Football Focus

The primary offsetting concern is the potential addition of an experienced veteran, as the current depth chart is thin, and a handful of veterans recently worked out for the team. But, as we'll discuss, even signing (most) veteran options shouldn't deter your confidence in Stevenson’s 2023 outlook.

Setting the Table: A Year of Redemption

Bill Belichick has nothing to prove, or does he? The consensus greatest coach of all time finds an increasing chorus of naysayers highlighting his less-than-impressive record as a coach without Tom Brady under center.

• 79-88 record without Brady
• 8-9 last season
• 17th ranked offense last season
• Finished in the bottom half of the league in rushing and passing for the first time since his first year in New England (2000)
• Not winning the AFC East for three consecutive seasons after winning 11 in a row with Brady (and 17 overall)

Regardless of whether you buy into this narrative, it's clear Belichick is determined to turn things around quickly.

(Re)Enter Bill O’Brien

The first step in turning the Patriots around was bringing in a proven offensive coordinator. Last year's experiment of letting a special teams coach (Joe Judge) and defensive coordinator (Matt Patricia) oversee the offense was inexplicable and indefensible. Fortunately, Belichick quickly corrected course by re-hiring Bill O’Brien. O’Brien spent five seasons with New England (2007-2011), culminating in one season as the play-caller. That single season was an unmitigated success:

• 2nd in total yards (6,848)
• 3rd in total points (513)

Since then, O’Brien has served as the head coach at Penn State, a 7-year stint running the Houston Texans, and two seasons as the University of Alabama’s offensive coordinator under Nick Saban. While some hardcore Crimson Tide fans were occasionally critical of O’Brien’s play-calling, the results are undeniably impressive. During that two-year stint, O’Brien oversaw an offense that ranked 5th nationally and scored 40 points per game. He also helped Bryce Young win a Heisman Trophy.

Regardless of whether you think O’Brien is an elite play-caller, you can be certain of three things:

• He's a significant improvement over last season's play-caller(s)
• Quarterback Mac Jones is excited about integrating Alabama concepts into the Patriots' playbook
• At every stop, O’Brien has tailored different offensive schemes to suit his personnel

Game-Script Proof

Stevenson played sporadically as a rookie in 2021, logging 288 snaps (24.7%); it was fewer snaps than Damien Harris, Brandon Bolden, and fullback Jakob Johnson. However, the 6-foot-0, 230-pounder showed enough in Year One and the subsequent training camp to earn a more consistent role last year. Stevenson logged 699 snaps (66.4%), more than any offensive skill player other than Mac Jones.

Primarily known as a powerful ball carrier at the University of Oklahoma, Stevenson’s role as a receiver last year surprised many. But he was Jones' most trusted outlet receiver and ranked third among NFL tailbacks in targets.

Table: 2023 Running Backs, Sorted by Most Targets

Stevenson also demonstrated significant improvement as a pass protector, ensuring the coaches can and will confidently play him in any game script.

Entrusted and Proven

Stevenson was productive despite the team's offense struggling for most of the time.

• 210 carries
• 1,040 rushing yards
• 5.0 yards per carry
• 88 targets
• 69 receptions
• 421 receiving yards
• 6.1 yards per reception
• 6 touchdowns
• 251.1 fantasy points

He finished as RB10 in PPR scoring and RB13 in non-PPR, even though the Patriots offense ranked 17th.

The standard-bearer for Patriots’ running backs is Corey Dillon, who gained 1,738 yards and 13 touchdowns in the 2004 season as a 30-year-old. He logged 360 touches that season, and nearly 20 years later, it stands as the single-season mark under Belichick.

Stevenson didn't approach Dillon's workload last year but recorded one of the heaviest tallies of the Belichick era.

Table: Belichick-Era Patriots Running Backs, Sorted by Single-Season Touches

Emphasis on the Run Game Assured

The Patriots’ offense has repeatedly transformed during Belichick's tenure, but the commitment to the run game is one constant. Regardless of how the offense performs and whether the passing game is an asset or not, you can be sure the team will emphasize the ground game.

Table: New England Team Rushing Totals (2000-2022)

The Risk of Signing a Veteran Back

The main concern of Stevenson doubters is the potential addition of a veteran tailback, creating another committee. Leonard Fournette and Darrell Henderson worked out for the team last week, adding fuel to the fire. But why would adding a veteran be problematic?

• The Patriots NEED a viable second ball carrier given their desire to run the ball 450+ times per season
• Stevenson is in his prime and was more effective as a ball carrier the last two seasons than either Fournette or Henderson
• Signing a veteran is really about replacing Damien Harris, who left in free agency to join division rival Buffalo

The Dalvin Cook Corollary

Don't be worried about a veteran running back joining an otherwise thin depth chart unless that veteran is Dalvin Cook.

As far as we know, Cook hasn't met with the Patriots. He's likely looking to sign with a team that will guarantee him a featured role. But if the stars align and Cook joins the Patriots in the coming weeks, it's necessary to moderate Stevenson's outlook. Cook would, at a minimum, share touches with Stevenson. But without smoke, don't let the threat of fire derail your draft plans.

Touchdown Volatility Upside

The final reason to be excited about drafting Stevenson is that he's on the right side of touchdown regression. Fantasy points typically come from three categories:

• Yards from scrimmage
• Receptions
• Touchdowns

It's crucial to remember that of the three primary inputs, touchdowns are—BY FAR—the least predictable. The inherent volatility in touchdown production makes forecasting challenging, if not impossible. However, knowing this can help you become a better drafter if you discount those players who amassed a disproportionate percentage of their fantasy points from touchdowns. Coincidentally, targeting players whose fantasy points weren't dependent on touchdowns is generally a savvy move.

Last year, touchdowns constituted only 14.3% of Stevenson’s fantasy value, which was the second-lowest rate among the top 30 fantasy running backs.

Table: Top 30 Fantasy Running Backs (2022), Sorted by Fantasy Points from Touchdowns (Least to Highest)

Recent Stats

Projections

Final Thoughts

No player is without risk. A savvy fantasy analyst can create a compelling argument for or against just about anyone. Christian McCaffrey's injury history, Austin Ekeler's age and unsettled contract status, Saquon Barkley's contract situation, Cooper Kupp's injury and depleted team construct — we could go on and on, but the point is, we have to take a stand.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a player worth staking a claim on. He's young, proven, and talented. He has a clear path towards a substantial workload, as long as Dalvin Cook doesn't sign with New England. He has a new offensive coordinator who should—at minimum—return the Patriots to a functional offense in most game scenarios. How many other players can rush for 1,000 yards, catch 60+ receptions, and are on the positive side of touchdown regression? In an era of committee backfields, Stevenson stands out as a known entity with top-5 upside, yet he is frequently available in the second round or later.