Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Baltimore | Chicago | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Detroit | Green Bay | Houston | Indianapolis | Jacksonville | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | Minnesota | Pittsburgh | San Francisco | Seattle | Tennessee

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

The Titans’ defense had an outstanding 2021. In some aspects, they were even better in 2022. Tennessee boasts the number one run defense, allowing the fewest yards and tying for the lowest yards per carry, while only the Patriots and Steelers surrendered fewer touchdowns on the ground. Not everything was positive, though.

Unlike the 2021 season, the pass defense plummeted all the way to the bottom of the league in yards allowed. That statistic is a little skewed, however, considering the Titans faced 54 more passing attempts than anyone else, but they can’t hide behind that completely. At seven yards per attempt, only three teams were worse. Their big play numbers slipped a little as well, though not drastically. Tennessee fell from 43 sacks in 2021 to 39 and from 22 turnovers to 20 last year, with only the Jets and Steelers recovering fewer opponent's fumbles.

Despite their issues versus the pass, it seems the organization was fairly content with their personnel situation heading into the off-season. The Titans have now used one draft pick on defense in the last two drafts; that was last year when they picked up corner Roger McCreary in round two. They did make a handful of moves in free agency, picking up some players that will contribute.

Defensive Linemen

In general, 3-4 teams rely on the outside linebackers to provide most of the pass rush and are happy if they get a dozen or so sacks from their defensive line. Tennessee got 26.5 from their interior line last year, while Rashad Weaver and Bud Dupree led the edge defenders with five and four, respectively. Some of this is related to the aggressive, penetrating style of 3-4 the Titans run. Much of it is because they have guys like Jeffery Simmons, Denico Autry, and, last year, DeMarcus Walker, who all had at least seven sacks from the five-technique alignment.

Simmons was a mid-first-round pick in 2019 but might have been among the first five selections had it not been for an ACL injury suffered while training in February of that year. The Titans were so high on him that they still took him at number 19, knowing that he might not play at all as a rookie. That was a great decision.

Simmons was not 100% until the start of 2020, but he has been a force over the last three seasons with 18 sacks, 18 batted passes, and 5 takeaways to go with an average of 51 combined stops per year. He was the number six defensive tackle in the IDP game in 2021, and his 8.7 points per game ranked twelfth last year. He may never make it to the elite tier, but Simmons is a dependable DT1 with top-five potential.

Since coming over from the Colts in 2021, Denico Autry has been a great addition to the Titans. He has 17 sacks, 9 batted passes, and a pair of forced fumbles over the last two years but has always been light in the tackle columns. Autry has never reached double-digit sacks, though he has put up nine twice and has averaged better than eight and a half over the last three seasons. From an IDP perspective, he has never been more than a tease. The closest he has come to fantasy value was with the Colts in 2018 when Autry was 28-9-9 with three takeaways in twelve games. At 17-10-8, he might have eclipsed those numbers last season had he not missed five games. At age 34 and in the final year of his contract, this might be Autry’s last hurrah.

Nose tackle Teair Tart rounds out the starting interior lineup. At six foot two and 304 pounds, he is not the biggest to play the position, but his low center of gravity makes him hard for blockers to root out. His numbers were modest last season at 20-14-1.5, but he did knock down six passes and log a pair of takeaways. What makes Tart particularly interesting is that his production has more than doubled in each of the last two seasons. If he gets another significant increase, he will be able to help managers in leagues starting two interior guys.

The Titans pass rush gets a huge boost with the return of Harold Landry. He missed all of last year after tearing his ACL before the season started. In early June, head coach Mike Vrabel said that Landry is getting close, but he could not make any promises regarding Landry being ready for training camp. Players returning from such injuries rarely participate in the early portions of camp anyway, so read nothing into it if Landry is limited. With a full year to recover, he should be a go when the season starts.

A healthy Landry is highly productive. He started slowly, like most edge defenders, with modest production as a rookie in 2018. Over his three seasons since, Landry has averaged 46-24-9, adding seven turnovers along the way. Coincidentally, 2021 was his best year at 49-25-12. He might not be 100% to start the season but should be at some point during the campaign.

The other key contributors on the edge will be Rashad Weaver and Arden Key. Weaver was the team’s fourth-round pick in 2021 but missed nearly all of his rookie season after suffering a broken leg in week three. Considering that 2022 was essentially his rookie season, Weaver’s play and production provide a lot of optimism. He played a significant role, seeing action on 640 snaps, with totals of 19-8-5, 2 forced fumbles, a recovery, and 6 batted passes. The team expects Weaver to take the next step in 2023 as he is set to start opposite Landry.

Arden Key struggled early in his career but has become a steady contributor since leaving the Raiders. Between his 2021 season with the 49ers and last year with Jacksonville, he has 10.5 sacks and has become one of the league’s better rent-a-player edge defenders. He may never be a regular starter but provides the Titans with a dependable, veteran third man at the position.

• Edge Harold Landry III – Strong DE2 with top-ten upside if healthy
• Edge Rashad Weaver – Up-and-coming young player with breakout potential
• Edge Arden Key – Marginal IDP value at best
• Edge Sam Okuayinonu – No impact expected
• DT Jeffery Simmons – Quality DT1 with top-five upside
• DT Denico Autry – Marginal value at best
• DT Jaleel Johnson – No impact
• DT Tyler Shelvin – No impact
• NT Teair Tart – Worth keeping an eye on in tackle-required formats
• NT Naquan Jones – No impact

Linebackers

Tennessee did a major overhaul at the inside linebacker position. Gone are David Long, Zach Cunningham, and Dylan Cole, making room for 2021 third-round pick Monty Rice and free agent addition Azeez Al-Shaair. Neither of these players is an established, known commodity, which spells an opportunity for astute IDP managers. One of them will be on the field full-time, and Tennessee played two off-ball backers on at least 80% of the snaps in fourteen games last year.

Al-Shaair is the early favorite for three-down duties. He was stuck behind a pair of excellent linebackers in San Francisco and jumped at the chance to start when his contract ended. He was the starting strong-side linebacker for the 49ers in all four of his seasons there, but San Francisco only uses three backers about 20% of the time.

When Dre Greenlaw missed multiple games in 2021, Al-Shaair got his chance and was impressive in the full-time role. In twelve games, he put up 58-44-2 with 4 takeaways and 5 passes defended. Al-Shaiir reached double-digit points in nine of those games, with 19 or more in three of them. He played so well that it created controversy when Greenlaw returned for the playoffs and reclaimed the job.

Al-Shaair is not big for a linebacker at 228 pounds, but he is smart, fast, and physical, with good cover skills. He has excellent range when chasing down ball carriers and an extra gear when turned lose to blitz. All signs suggest he will be a great fit in the Titans' scheme. Tennessee didn’t give us a stud linebacker last year, but David Long was averaging 11.2 points per game when he was injured in week 13. With his knack for the big play, Al-Shaair should beat that number.

At six foot and 233 pounds, Monty Rice is like a bowling ball at linebacker. The low man almost always wins, and he does a great job of getting under blockers and playing off to make tackles. The knock on him coming out of Georgia was average at best cover skills. There has never been any question about Rice’s play versus the run.

Rice got the call to start four games when Long was injured late last season. He was on the field for at least 71% of the snaps in all of them, seeing over 90% of the action in two. Over those four games, he produced 24 tackles, 15 assists, and a pass breakup, with an average of 12.2 points per game. There may not be much splash play upside, but if Rice gets 80% or more of the playing time, he’s going to make a lot of tackles.

In the event of an injury to one of the starters, Ben Niemann would be the next man up. He is an experienced veteran that could put up decent numbers if he gets on the field.

• ILB Azeez Al-Shaair – Target as a priority LB3 with upside
• ILB Monty Rice – Target as an LB5 with LB3 potential
• ILB Ben Niemann – Injury sleeper at best
• ILB Jack Gibbens – No impact
• ILB Luke Gifford – No impact

Defensive Backs

Kevin Byard is one of both the NFL and the fantasy game’s best safeties. At five feet eleven and 212 pounds, he is big and physical enough to see time as a box safety, yet he is a ball hawk with the speed and cover skills to play deep. The Titans use that versatility well by having him line up at a variety of depths over the course of a game.

Tennessee likes to use right and left safeties rather than strong and weak, so Byard sees enough run-support opportunities to post fairly consistent tackle totals. His 80 solos and 30 assists are a career outlier and came in a 2020 season in which he played in the box regularly. In each of the other five years since 2017, Byard recorded between 60 and 68 solos with between 25 and 40 assists. In each of those seasons, he also tallied at least four interceptions with an average of five and a half and averaged roughly ten passes defended. He was the fantasy game’s twelfth-ranked defensive back last season and has been a perennial top twenty guy throughout his career.

Because much of his value comes from big plays, Byard can be a little inconsistent. He posted five or fewer points in four games last season but more than made up for it with ten double-digit performances. He is not an elite-tier prospect but is well worth the price of a priority DB2.

Amani Hooker mans the other safety spot. Physically, he is a clone of Byard, but Hooker lacks the skill set to be as successful in the big play department. Since taking over the starting job in 2021, Hooker has struggled to stay healthy, missing 13 games over two seasons. When he plays, he usually put up fairly good tackle totals, he simply misses too many games to be counted on.

Considering Hooker’s history of injuries, Tennessee is taking a big chance with their lack of depth at safety. The four players listed behind Byard and Hooker are all undrafted free agents that have zero NFL experience. With that consideration, I expect the team might look to add at least one bargain-priced veteran before the season starts, though they may want to see what they have when training camp opens before going there.

In 2021, the Titans broke a long string of seasons with at least one fantasy-friendly corner. That was the first time since at least 2009 in which the team failed to land a player among the top 20 corners. The break was short, as rookie Roger McCreary finished at number 16 in 2022. McCreary’s 69 solo tackles were third among corners, but he failed to make an impact in the big play columns with one interception and eight passes defended. If the rookie corner rule holds up, we should see a few more splash plays and fewer tackles in 2023, but there is a fairly good chance he will still give us CB2 value.

After McCreary, the Titans have a lot of questions. Caleb Farley was a first-round pick in 2021 but has been injured more than he’s played through two seasons. He is currently recovering from a back procedure, and his status for the start of camp is in question. Kristian Fulton was a second-round pick in 2020 and has also dealt with a lot of injuries. Something about the way he handled those injuries has him in hot water with Coach Vrabel, who called him a "repeat offender". Fulton missed the first week of OTAs. He showed up for the second week but did not participate. Vrabel says he expects Fulton to be ready for the start of camp, but expectations are not always realized. If Farley and/or Fulton miss time, either 2021 third-rounder Elijah Molden or free agent addition Sean Murphey-Bunting would get the call. Molden started several games as a rookie but missed nearly all of last season with a groin injury. He is healthy but has been seeing some practice reps at safety.

Murphy-Bunting was a second-round pick of the Buccaneers in 2019 and was a starter for them in 2020 and parts of 2021. He saw action both as an outside corner and as a nickel corner. The bottom line is that Tennessee has a lot of young talent if they can get them on the field and keep them there. So far, that hasn’t been easy.

• FS Kevin Byard – Strong DB2 with big-play upside
• SS Amani Hooker – Good tackle production but too much time in the trainer's room
• FS Mike Brown – Developmental player
• SS Josh Thompson – Developmental player
• CB Roger McCreary – Mid-range CB2 or quality depth
• CB Kristian Fulton – Risk outweighs the potential
• CB Caleb Farley – Too many injuries
• CB Elijah Molden – His best path to playing time might be at safety
• CB Sean Murphy-Bunting – Early favorite for the nickel job
• CB Chris Jackson – No impact

That’s a wrap for Part 20. Next week will kick off with the NFC South

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