Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Baltimore | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Green Bay | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | Minnesota | San Francisco | Seattle

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

At about this time last year, I was writing about how a once-strong Minnesota defense would struggle in the first year of the transition to a 3-4 under Ed Donatell. That prediction turned out to be accurate. The pass defense was atrocious. Two teams allowed more than their 7.3 yards per pass attempt, and only the Titans surrendered more passing yards. Minnesota was 24th in completion percentage and 17th in passing scores. The pass rush slumped from second in 2021 at 51 sacks, to 21st with 38. The run defense was not a lot better at 4.5 yards per carry and 18 touchdowns. The only thing the Minnesota defense did well was take the ball away with a middle-of-the-pack 24 turnovers.

With the situation they created by hiring Donatell, how the organization could have expected anything else is beyond me, but apparently, they did. Shortly after the final whistle of their playoff loss to the Giants, Donatell was fired, and Brian Flores was hired to replace him. About the only thing these two coaches have in common is the use of a 3-4 as a base defense.

Flores is from the Belichick coaching tree, which means a lot opponent specific modifications from week to week. It also means aggression. Vikings defenses have not done a lot of blitzing in recent years. That is about to change as Flores would send the water boy if it were legal. His defenses thrive on pressure and forcing mistakes, and they have been exceptionally successful. His 2020 Dolphins defense led the league in takeaways, aided by Xavien Howard's league-high ten interceptions. Flores spent last season as a defensive assistant/linebackers coach with the Steelers, where he helped Alex Highsmith break out for 14.5 sacks. It might be another year before the personnel transition is complete, but this Vikings defense has enough in place to make a much better showing in 2023.

Defensive Linemen

Dalvin Tomlinson played more snaps per game and was more statistically productive than any other interior lineman on the Vikings roster last year. Za'Darius Smith started opposite Danielle Hunter on the edge and was second on the team with nine sacks. Both of them are gone. This likely had more to do with money than ability or scheme fit, but the fact remains that two solid starters must be replaced.

Hunter is the clear headliner in this group. He's had some run-ins with the injury bug over the years, but when healthy, he is a stud. Hunter's first big season came in his second year when he finished 33-22-12.5 with a pair of turnovers and a score in 2016. He missed time the following year but came back to go 50-19-14 with a recovery in 2018 and 51-16-14.5 with 4 takeaways in 2019. He missed all of 2020 and a chunk of 2021 with a neck injury followed by a torn pectoral before playing all seventeen games last year.

While the injuries have been a factor in his production, scheme fit has not. Hunter has shown that he can be just as effective in a two-point stance as with his hand down. He is tenacious, with a lightning-quick first step and enough power to catch blockers off guard when they overreact to it. At six feet five and 263 pounds, Hunter is almost as good at setting the edge against the run as chasing down quarterbacks. The injuries appear to be behind him, but the concern about his durability remains. That is the only factor keeping Hunter off of my elite first tier at the position, but he is well worth the risk as a low-end DE1.

After Hunter, it gets a little shaky for the Vikings. The team added Marcus Davenport via free agency. There is no question about his talent and potential, but he has fallen way short of the expectations that come with being a former fourteenth-overall pick. Davenport had one good year with the Saints, going 23-16-9 with 4 turnovers in eleven games in 2021. He has eleven sacks to show for his other four seasons combined with New Orleans.

Most of the issue has been an inability to stay on the field. Davenport has never made it through a full slate of games and has been less than 100% for many of those he suited up for. The Saints finally gave up on him last year, reducing his role to 490 snaps over fifteen games. It was the first season of his career that Davenport failed to record a full sack. The change of venue might be just what he needs to kickstart his career. Let's just say that the Vikings are a lot more optimistic about those chances than I am.

D.J. Wonnum and Patrick Jones were the third and fourth edge defenders on last year's depth chart. Each of them contributed four sacks, with Wonnum seeing almost 600 snaps and Jones just over 300. They will enter training camp with the same pecking order, but Coach Flores will not hesitate to shuffle that order if someone stands out or someone disappoints.

Wonnum was a fourth-round pick in 2020. He has fifteen career sacks, including eight in 2021, when he was a starter all season. Jones was a third-round selection in 2021. He played sparingly as a rookie but stepped up nicely in year two, despite the limited opportunity. There is a lot of potential with whoever starts opposite Hunter. Put this situation/competition high on your training camp watch list.

Minnesota landed Andre Carter II as a priority undrafted free agent. Store that name in your memory. His father helped a lot of us old guys win IDP championships back in the day, but more importantly, Junior racked up 96 combined tackles and 19 sacks as a two-year starter for Army at outside linebacker.

We have seen some highly productive interior linemen playing under Flores. Christian Wilkins and Emmanuel Ogbah are two that come to mind. I would have been excited to see Dalvin Tomlinson in this scheme. As it stands, I see no one among the interior line group with that kind of skill set or potential. The closest thing to it would be Dean Lowry. He was stuck in a two-gap 3-4 over the entire seven years with the Packers but still managed fifteen sacks, including five in 2022.

Harrison Phillips is an excellent anchor versus the run and makes a good number of tackles but has two career sacks over four seasons. Khyiris Tonga rounds out the starting lineup at nose tackle with Jonathan Bullard, James Lynch, Ross Blacklock, and rookie Jaquelin Roy completing the expected depth chart. Keep in mind that Flores will use a lot of nickel looks, pulling one of the interior linemen to make room for a second linebacker or extra defensive back.

Roy is considered a developmental player at this point, but having been drafted under Flores could give him a leg up in the battle for playing time. He is an ascending talent with the potential to earn significant playing time in the near future.

• Edge Danielle Hunter – IDP stud when healthy, just short of the elite tier
• Edge Marcus Davenport – Major injury/bust risk
• Edge D.J. Wonnum – Sleeper with low DE2 ceiling
• Edge Patrick Jones II – Sleeper with a lower floor and higher ceiling than Wonnum
• Edge Andre Carter II – Deep dynasty sleeper with great bloodlines
• DT Harrison Phillips – Possible depth in leagues starting two tackles
• DT Dean Lowry – Watchlist sleeper
• DT Jonathan Bullard – No impact
• DT Khyiris Tonga – No impact
• DT James Lynch – No impact
• DT Ross Blacklock – No impact
• DT Jaquelin Roy - Deep sleeper with dynasty implications

Linebackers

Moving on from mainstay Eric Kendricks is another decision that likely had a lot to do with money. The fact that Brian Asamoah was sitting there ready to step up probably made the decision easier. Both Asamoah and Jordan Hicks are good players with IDP potential.

Hicks is a 236-pound downhill thumper that excels versus the run and can hold his own in coverage with a little help from the scheme. He had a number of productive games over his four seasons with the Eagles (2015-2018), but injuries made the early part of his career a rollercoaster ride. In the one year that he managed to stay healthy for 16 games, Hicks put up 85 combined tackles, a sack, 6 turnovers, and 11 pass breakups despite a less-than-full-time role. His Arizona debut in 2019 was his most productive season to date. That season Hicks racked up 92 solo stops, 56 assists, a sack and a half, 6 turnovers, and 6 pass breakups.

For some reason, the Cardinals never seemed to believe in Hicks as a long-term answer. They kept looking to replace him in the lineup in 2020 and 2021, but he wouldn't go away. The numbers dipped, rendering Hicks no better than a third starter or good depth for most of those seasons. Hicks was never a 100% participant in any game last season, but he averaged 88% of the snaps over the first twelve games before having his playing time reduced to around 60% over the final six games. On fewer than 1000 plays, Hicks was good for 86-43-3 with a pair of turnovers and 10 passes defended. The bottom line is if they put him on the field enough, the guy will make plays.

Asamoah is small at six feet and 226 pounds, but he is fast, with great reaction time and strong cover skills. He saw very little action as a rookie, getting 14 defensive snaps over the first ten weeks of the season. The coaching staff started working him into the lineup in week 15. Over a three-game span, Asamoah managed 15 combined tackles and two turnovers on 74 snaps before sitting out the last two games of the regular season with a minor injury.

Either or both of these guys could give us quality production this year, but there is something to consider when drafting. I call it the Belichick factor, and it reaches well beyond New England to many of the places where his disciples coach.

It has been a long time since New England gave us an IDP star at linebacker. That's mostly because players change roles almost weekly. There will be big games followed by vanishing acts that will drive you mad if you roster one of their players. It was virtually the same with Flores in Miami. Jerome Baker would blow up for a week or two then post 5 tackles over the next two games. I fear we could see the same approach with the Vikings, all but ruining both players. The one potential saving grace is that the Vikings roster lacks the depth and versatility to make it happen at this point.

• ILB Jordan Hicks – There is a wide range of possibilities; target as an LB3 and hope for great things
• ILB Brian Asamoah II – Gambler's special with low floor and high ceiling
• ILB Troy Dye – Injury sleeper
• ILB Troy Reeder – No impact

Defensive Backs

The Vikings' secondary will enter training camp with more questions than answers. They were not good last year, so they elected to jettison their top three corners, Patrick Peterson, Cameron Dantzler, and Chandon Sullivan. That may not make a ton of sense, but it's not hard to understand the thought process. It starts with money and leads to the young players the team has drafted over the last two off-seasons. In 2022 Minnesota used a second on Andrew Booth and a fourth on Akayleb Evans. This spring, they used a three on Mekhi Blackmon and a four on Jay Ward. Sprinkle in a little veteran free-agent Byron Murphy, and it's not hard to follow the plan. They got younger, spent a lot less money, and have a lineup that would be hard-pressed to be much worse than last year.

When it comes to fantasy value from any of these corners, it's a shot in the dark at this stage. Other than Murphy, it's hard to be sure who will even start, though Booth would seem the obvious favorite. What we do know, however, is that Flores's defenses have produced some good IDP options at the corner positions in the past. The best bet might be to leave them all on the street and then see who produces in weeks one and two.

The safety position is a little tricky, too, especially if we are trying to base anything on last year's numbers. That said, I am comfortable promoting Harrison Smith as a strong option for IDP managers. From 2015 through 2020, Smith was one of the most fantasy-friendly free safeties in the game. He consistently gave us solo tackle numbers in the mid-60s and could be counted on for five or so turnovers with double-digit passes defended. He was consistently a good DB2 with week-to-week upside but was a tad inconsistent. In 2021, Smith moved back to strong safety, where he had produced his two best statistical seasons early in his career. That year he set new career marks in solo stops at 83 and combined tackles with 114. He tied career marks in sacks with 3 and picks with five, climbing back into the top ten. Under Donatell last year, the Vikings used a lot of two-deep safeties, which kept Smith out of the box and knocked his tackle totals back down. Thanks to splash plays, he still managed to finish ninth with 11.9 points per game. Smith should get more time near the line and be a much bigger factor in run support in 2023. I will stop short of calling another top-ten imminent, but I believe it is likely. At age 34, this could be his last hurrah, especially if the team continues its struggles.

The only concern I have with Smith's IDP value is the history of how Flores uses safeties. Anyone that rostered Brandon Jones or Eric Row when Flores was in Miami will understand the frustration. Jones would have great games two weeks in a row, you would start him, and that week, Rowe would get the playing time while Jones got scraps. Over and over it repeated until everyone had grey hair. The good news is, until/unless Lewis Cine returns from injury, the Vikings don't have a third dependable safety for Flores to use regularly.

Minnesota used a first-round pick on Cine last spring, expecting him to be the free safety for the foreseeable future. Expectations were and still are high for the Cine, but he was not able to beat out second-year man, Camryn Bynum for the starting job in camp last summer. After seeing two defensive snaps on the year, Cine suffered a compound fracture of his leg in week four. He is expected back at some point during the season, but it remains unclear if he will be ready for the opener. If he is not able to participate in training camp, which is not looking good at the last report, Cine will have a hard time winning the job for 2023 too.

Unless he can flip the turnover switch, Bynum is not going to have much IDP value, at least not this year. He managed 81 combined stops and four turnovers in 2022, but only 50 of those stops were solo. The situation with Cine probably spells another season as the starting free safety for Bynum, which will be good for his experience level. If he inherits the strong safety job in the next year or two as expected, Bynum could be a highly productive target for us for years to come.

• SS Harrison Smith – Low-end DB1 or priority DB2
• FS Camryn Bynum – Marginal impact this year but a potentially productive future
• FS Lewis Cine – No likely to be fully recovered from last year's injury
• SS Josh Metellus – Injury sleeper with DB3 upside
• CB Andrew Booth Jr – Week one watch list
• CB Byron Murphy II – Might be worth a roster spot as a CB3 with upside
• CB Akayleb Evans – No impact expected
• CB Mekhi Blackmon – Rookie corner watchlist
• CB Jay Ward – Rookie corner watchlist

That's a wrap for Part 14. Coming up next, Da'Bears.

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