Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 17: Indianapolis Colts

Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Baltimore | Chicago | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Detroit | Green Bay | Indianapolis | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | Minnesota | San Francisco | Seattle

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

Statistically, the Colts' defense was all over the place in 2022. They allowed the second-highest completion percentage but the twelfth fewest yards through the air. The run defense was good in ranking fourth at 4.1 yards per carry, but only six teams allowed more rushing scores. Just five teams intercepted fewer passes, while only three recovered more opponent's fumbles. And finally, Indianapolis recorded the tenth most sacks at 44, but only five teams surrendered more points on the season. Falling right in line with the theme, the 2023 Colts have a lot of good players on defense, but they have some big questions with injury situations and not much depth at key positions.

The Colts made a coaching change after last season's struggles, but they kept Gus Bradley as defensive coordinator. Thus the scheme will remain the same while the organization is hopeful of better, more consistent results.

Defensive Linemen

The Indianapolis defensive line includes one of the best tackle tandems in the league. Grover Stewart mans the one technique position. At six foot four and 315 pounds, he is not the biggest to play the position, but he is one of the most productive. Stewart is a hard-to-move rock in the middle of the run defense. He holds up well against double teams and does a great job of getting off blocks to make plays. He is a big man without much wiggle as a pass rusher but will contribute by bull-rushing blockers and forcing the passer out of the pocket.

Stewart turned in career-best numbers across the board in 2022. His 44 solo tackles tied Washington's Jonathan Allen and Colts teammate DeForest Buckner for the second most by an interior lineman. Add career-highs in assists at 25 and sacks with 4, plus two batted passes and a fumble recovery, and Stewart was number eleven at the position. The big question for IDP managers is, will he repeat? I'm going to say probably not.

Stewart has six seasons under his belt. Over the first five, he never reached 40 solo stops and totaled more than 20 assists once. He had three sacks in 2019, giving him a career total of four heading into last season, and his fumble recovery last year marks the second takeaway of his career. Maybe this was a case of scheme fit, as 2022 was the first year for Gus Bradley as defensive coordinator, but there is no denying that Stewart's big numbers are an outlier at this point. I see him as a good DT2 target with upside.

There is no such concern with Buckner, who is a perennial tier-one elite. In seven seasons as a pro, he has never totaled fewer than 35 solo or 59 combined stops. Buckner is one of the league's premier inside pass rushers with 60 career sacks, a personal best of 12 in 2018, and at least seven in each of the last five seasons. He has six forced fumbles and six recoveries over the last four years and consistently knocks down three passes a season. Most importantly for IDP managers, since 2018 he has not finished outside the top five with back-to-back number ones in 2019 and 2020. In leagues that break out the defensive line positions, Buckner should be the first tackle off the board. In leagues that lump the positions together, he is a solid DL1 or excellent second starter.

The 2022 Colts got virtually nothing from the rest of the interior linemen on their roster, with that group combining for seven tackles and eleven assists. The signing of Taven Bryan in free agency gives them a quality veteran backup and a third man to contribute to the rotation. Keep an eye on rookie fourth-round pick Adetomiwa Adebawore. At six foot two and 282 pounds, his stature is that of a tweener, but this young man has long-term potential. He totaled 74 combined stops and 9.5 sacks over his final two years at Northwestern and can play end or three-technique tackle in the Colts 4-3.

With the departure of Yannick Ngakoue, who was not invited back, the Colts look very thin on the edge, at least at a glance, but I suggest digging a little deeper. In a 2021 draft that was thin at the top on pass rushers, the Colts used their first two picks on defensive ends Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo, respectively. Paye was a test monster, moving up draft boards after showing off his quickness, agility, and athleticism in workouts. The traits and potential were there, but on film and in the box scores, Paye was a work in progress when he entered the league. Going into year two, nothing had changed, and he was still no more than a breakout hopeful. In his third season, however, Paye had a breakout of sorts.

His overall numbers of 32-12-6, with a fumble recovery, are not eye-catching. At least not until we take into consideration that he missed five games and most of two others with a high ankle sprain. He came out of the gate strong with 16 combined tackles and 3 sacks over the first four games. The ankle injury ended his week five early. He returned for a 7-1-1 performance against the Patriots in week nine but aggravated the injury early in week ten. He was back in week thirteen, posting 11-4-2 over two games.

Paye was bothered by the ankle all season and didn't do much over the final three contests, but he showed us what he is capable of. With the injury now behind him, 2023 should be the season that he finally lives up to expectations.

At this time last year, I was pimping Dayo Odeyingbo as a great sleeper target. As it turns out, I was a year early on that. Odeyingbo was a first-round talent. Had it not been for an Achilles injury in his final season at Vanderbilt, he would never have been available when the Colts picked him in round two. The organization knew their early returns would be limited but were willing to invest the early pick and be patient.

Odeyingbo played a few snaps as a rookie but for the most part, the team treated his 2021 season as a redshirt year. He was ready to contribute in 2022 but was stuck as the third man behind Paye and Ngakoue. Odeyingbo ended up starting several games when Paye, and later Ngakoue, missed time with injuries. In all, he got on the field for 518 plays. That was enough for him to show his value. Odeyingbo finished the year with 31 combined tackles and was fourth on the team with five sacks. He is healthy now and is set to take over the starting job opposite Paye.

With an outstanding cast around him, Odeyingbo is going not going to get a lot of attention from blocking schemes. That means a lot of one-on-one opportunities. He is a relatively unknown commodity to most IDP managers, making him a great late-round target as a third or even fourth man with a lot of upside.

No future stars are waiting in the wings behind Paye and Odeyingbo, but the Colts do have a pair of quality veteran backups in Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis. Both of these guys have starting experience and can hold down the fort if called upon, but they are not going to provide much IDP value if forced into starting jobs.

• DE Kwity Paye – Target as a late DL2 with a lot of upside
• DE Dayo Odeyingbo – Target as depth, but don't be surprised if he becomes your starter
• DE Tyquan Lewis – No impact
• DE Titus Leo – Developmental rookie
• DE Samson Ebukam – Marginal value at best
• DT DeForest Buckner – Elite DT1 or quality DL1
• DT Grover Stewart – Target as a solid second starter with a little upside
• DT Taven Bryan – Injury sleeper with a limited ceiling
• DT Adetomiwa Adebawore – Watchlist rookie with dynasty potential
• DT Eric Johnson - No impact

Linebackers

When looking at Indianapolis linebackers, everyone's focus, and especially that of IDP managers, is on the status of Shaquille Leonard. When healthy, he is an elite player both on the field and on the stat sheet. There is no weakness to his game. He is blazing fast, tackles everything from sideline to sideline, is excellent in coverage, and makes a lot of splash plays. Leonard was the fantasy game's number-one linebacker as a rookie in 2018, with 112 solo stops, 49 assists, 7 sacks, and 8 turnovers. Unfortunately, that was the last time we have seen him at 100%.

Leonard played through pain for most of the next three seasons. He managed good production in all of them but was not the same dominant player. At first, the problem was thought to be an ankle issue, but it was eventually discovered that it originated from a nerve injury in his back. In early September of last year, Leonard said that he was on track for the first pain-free season since his rookie year. Not long after that statement, he stopped practicing. Leonard made three brief appearances in 2022 before opting for season-ending back surgery in November.

Back in May, we were told that he is progressing well, but there is no timetable for his return. As of mid-July, Leonard is still not participating in any physical team activities and is in doubt for the start of training camp. The situation leaves us with no choice but to wonder if he will ever be the same player or if he will even play again. There is so much upside with Leonard that he has to be picked at some point in our drafts. Until he takes the field and can stay there for a while, I can't see taking him as more than an LB4. If you do elect to gamble on Leonard, pick up E.J. Speed in the last round as a handcuff.

Last year's Colts gave us a pair of top-ten linebackers. In his fifth season as a pro, Zaire Franklin came from nowhere to become one of six linebackers to reach triple-digit solo tackles and one of eight to post 60 or more assists. Adding three sacks, three forced fumbles, and six pass breakups, the former seventh-round pick (2018), was top-five at the position.

The big numbers are a major career outlier for Franklin but there is no reason to think they were a fluke. Whether it was Leonard and Anthony Walker or Leonard and Bobby Okereke, or Okereke and Franklin, Indianapolis has consistently given up two quality prospects at linebacker in recent years. With Okereke in New York, Franklin is sure to be either the leader at linebacker for the team or a strong sidekick to Leonard. As the latter, he probably would not make the top ten again but should be no worse than a strong second starter.

Okereke was two tackles shy of joining the triple-digit solo club in 2022. At 98-53-0 with 4 turnovers and 5 passes defended, he slipped in at number ten in the final rankings. Had he not lost snaps to Leonard in a couple of games and E.J. Speed late in the season, the Colts might have given us an unprecedented two of the top five at the position. This is why all IDP managers, and especially those that already have Leonard, need to grab Speed at the end of their drafts.

Speed is a good player and has been highly productive, considering his role. Let's put his production into perspective. The Indianapolis defense faced 1138 plays last year. Franklin played all but four of them, while Okereke saw action on 968. Speed is not going to be in the lead role, but if Leonard doesn't play, Speed will be the number two. Without anyone to share time with, he would see more than the 968 snaps, but for the sake of making this point, I'll use that number. Speed played 314 snaps and was 37-26-1 with a pair of forced fumbles. If we take his per-snap production and multiply it over 968 snaps, we get 114 tackles, 80 assists, 3 sacks, and six turnovers.

If Leonard plays and Speed is their number three linebacker, the Colts are in pretty good shape. If Leonard is out and Speed starts, they are very thin at the position. JoJo Domann is a second-year undrafted free agent, Cameron McGrone was a fifth-round pick of the Patriots in 2021 but failed to stick, and Gran Stuard was a seventh-round selection by the Colts in 2021. Between them, they have 14 tackles and 2 assists at the pro level.

• WLB Darius Leonard – Elite tier LB1 if healthy, but that's a huge if
• SLB Zaire Franklin – Quality LB2 at worst, top-five LB1 at best
• WLB E.J. Speed – LB2 value if he starts
• SLB JoJo Domann – Injury sleeper
• MLB Cameron McGrone – Injury sleeper
• WLB Grant Stuard – Injury sleeper

Defensive Backs

The Colts could be thin at linebacker. In the secondary, they already are. Heading into last season, the organization thought they were set at safety. They drafted Julian Blackmon in round three in 2020 and were confident that their free safety position was good for the long term. When they picked up Nick Cross in round three last year, they believed both positions were set for the next few years. They appear to be right on the free safety situation but not so much with Cross.

The second-year man has all the physical tools to be successful. Good size at six foot and 212 pounds, with plenty of speed and the physicality to stop runners in their tracks. When Khari Willis unexpectedly retired, Cross was installed as the replacement, running with the starters throughout most of the summer and training camp. He played every defensive snap in the season opener, then was promptly benched at halftime in week two. Coach Bradley later cited too much thinking and not enough playing as the reason. The team has not given up on Cross, but they have not put him back in the lineup yet either.

Rodney McLeod started for the rest of last season, with rookie seventh-round pick Rodney Thomas seeing action as the third safety. McLeod is gone, and Thomas now sits atop the projected depth chart. The problem with this is that both Thomas and Blackmon have the skill set to be more successful as free safeties. Bradley likes a strong safety that is a more physical presence. With that in mind, the Colts used a fifth-round pick in this year's draft on California's Daniel Scott. The rookie was looking great and seemed ready to challenge for the starting job when he suffered a torn ACL during OTAs, ending his season and leaving the team short once again.

The end of this story has not yet been written, and with some good veteran safeties still looking for teams, there could be additional characters introduced before the end of camp. There is also a pair of guys that spent last year on the team's practice squad, who could be factors. Keep an eye on Trevor Denbow and Marcel Dabo, who could get their shots this year.

Colts safeties have not given us great numbers in recent years, but there is enough potential here to put this situation high on the watch list between now and the opener.

Corner Kenny Moore is one of the league's great stories. He made the team in 2017 as an undrafted free agent out of tiny Valdosta State and won a starting job in his second season. The team attempted to replace him by using some early draft pick at the position over the last few years, but no matter who they threw at him, Moore somehow managed to come out on top. He is small at 5'9” and 185 pounds but is tenacious as a pass defender and tough as woodpecker lips in run support. He has good ball skills, is highly versatile with enough speed to hang with receivers on deep routes, and is a technician when matched against bigger, more physical guys.

Over four seasons starting in 2018, Moore was one of the rare corners to have consistent IDP value. His best finish came in 2021 when he was number two at the position. That season Moore's 82 solo tackles ranked fourth among defensive backs and were the most by a corner. He added 20 assists, a sack, 4 interceptions, a forced fumble, and 13 passes defended for an average of over 11.5 points per game. Moore was the fantasy game's number three corner in 2018, was on pace to finish sixth before missing the final four games in 2019, and finished fourth in 2020. But it all came to a sudden end in 2022.

Maybe it was the scheme change under Bradley, or maybe it was just an outlier season. Whatever the reason, Moore was not the same player last year. His per-game tackle numbers dropped significantly, he failed to create a turnover for the first time in his career, and the four pass breakups were way out of character. Moore missed the final five games with an ankle injury, but even before that, the average of just under eight points per game ranked 36th among corners and was the lowest since his rookie campaign in 2017.

At this stage, there is no way of knowing that he will bounce back in 2023. After last year's dismal output, we can only hope. Because he was so productive for so long, Moore is worth picking up as your second or third corner. If he comes out hot, he's back and all is well. If he comes out flat, it's easy to find corners on the waiver wire.

After Moore, the Colts are shaky at the corner position. The rest of last year's top four are gone, leaving rookie second-round selection Julius Brents as the projected starter with a collection of journeymen and first or second-year undrafted youngsters set to battle for the rest of the playing time.

Brents could offer good IDP value. The rookie corner rule will be in play, and his size, demeanor, and physical traits are all positives for IDP potential. He didn't put up huge numbers at Kansas State, but they were not bad, including 94 combined stops and 6 takeaways. If you are looking to take a flier on a rookie as your second starter, Brents is as likely as any to be the right target.

• SS Rodney Thomas – Watchlist player with limited upside
• FS Julian Blackmon – Marginal valuer
• SS Nick Cross – Watchlist player with a fairly high ceiling if he starts
• FS Trevor Denbow – Deep sleeper
• SS Marcel Dabo – Deep sleeper
• CB Kenny Moore II – A great history of production makes him worth a shot as a CB2
• CB Julius Brents – My favorite corner target in this year's class
• CB Dallis Flowers – Deep sleeper
• CB Tony Brown – Marginal value at best
• CB Jaylon Jones – No impact expected
• CB Darius Rush – No impact

That does it for Part 17 of this year's pre-season offering. The Texans are next on the agenda.

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