Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Baltimore | Chicago | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Detroit | Green Bay | Houston | Indianapolis | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | Minnesota | San Francisco | Seattle

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

Looking just at the numbers for the Texans’ pass defense might make someone think they were pretty good in 2022. Their 16 interceptions were tied for seventh, Houston was eleventh in passing yards allowed, and no one gave up fewer points through the air. If we look at the defense as a whole, it changes the perspective greatly.

The Texans faced the fifth-fewest pass attempts because no one had to throw on them. The run defense was dead last at 170 yards per game, they gave up five yards per rush and only the Bears allowed more rushing touchdowns. At least they were middle of the pack in sacks with 39 and their 27 turnover were more than 25 other teams.

This is a team that is in the first stage of rebuilding mode. They have a long way to go on both sides of the ball personnel-wise. The foundation was laid with their most important addition, the hiring of DeMeco Ryans as head coach. They got a jump on player personnel as well, landing both their franchise quarterback and a cornerstone for the defense within the first three picks of the draft.

The Texans didn’t have the cap room to go get a bunch of great players in free agency, so like most teams in similar situations, they went for quantity over quality, adding eleven bargain-priced veteran free agents. None of the guys they just signed will be there in two or three years, but they can help the team play competitive football until reinforcements arrive.

Ryans will bring new energy to the entire team, but as a defensive-minded head coach, he brings a little extra to that side of the ball. One tangible example of that is the hiring of Matt Burke as coordinator. Burke and Ryan share the same defensive philosophy and will build an aggressive one-gap, 4-3. Both coaches agree on the importance of controlling the line of scrimmage so the defensive line will be an early focus.

Defensive Linemen

Those of us that have been at this for a while will remember 2006 when the Texans were criticized for passing on Reggie Bush to take defensive end Mario Williams first overall. That decision worked out well for them, especially when they were able to get Ryans in round two. This time around, they had to take the franchise quarterback at two but still managed to get the best defender in the draft and a cornerstone for their defense by trading up to three for Will Anderson Jr.

Anderson was arguably the closest thing to a can’t-miss prospect that this draft had to offer. He is a chiseled six foot three and 253 pounds with long arms, speed, and quickness off the edge. He is even a sound technician with great footwork and the ability to beat blockers by overwhelming them with power on one snap and exploding upfield on the next. He checks the box for experience as a three-year starter for Alabama, where he constantly faced the best competition in college football. Anderson puts two checkmarks in the production box to emphasize just how good he was for the Crimson Tide. In three years there, he accumulated 204 combined tackles (58.5 for loss), 34.5 sacks, and 3 turnovers. Most rookies start slowly in year one; Anderson could be the exception.

For all their shortcomings, the Texans were not without good players on the defensive line last year. It feels like Jerry Hughes has been in the league forever. He is entering year fourteen and will be 35 years old in August. He is no longer a player that can stay on the field for more than 60% of the snaps, but as long as he stays fresh, Hughes can still get it done.

The nine sacks he recorded in 2022 equals the highest total of his career, a mark Hughes set back in 2013 and matched in 2014. He could retain the title of starter but there is a chance his role will be reduced to that of a pass-rush specialist. It has been a long time since Hughes was an IDP factor. Even with the nine sacks last year, marginal tackle numbers landed him outside the top 35. IDP managers can look at him as a matchup-based by-week flier with the hope of getting a sack at the right time.

If he can stay healthy, Jonathan Greenard should be in the mix for the starting job opposite Anderson. A third-round pick of the Texans in 2020, Greenard was in the midst of a breakout season in 2021 when a chest injury kept him from finishing strong. That year Greenard had 19 tackles, 4 assists, 4 batted passes, and 8 sacks over a seven-game span. He recorded a sack and a half in the first three games last year before missing several games with an ankle injury.

Patriots 2019 third-round pick Chase Winovich and fourth-round rookie Dylan Horton could also get their names in the hat, but they will more likely see limited action unless someone ahead of them is hurt.

In Maliek Collins, Sheldon Rankins, Roy Lopez, and Hassan Ridgeway, the Texans have a quartet of good veteran contributors to rotate on the inside. Both Collins and Rankins move well for being north of 300 pounds. Both guys have tasted some statistical success during their careers as well.

In 2018, Rankins totaled 41 combined stops and 8 sacks while with the Saints. The second-best numbers of his seven-year career came with the Jets last season at 43 tackles, 3 sacks, and a forced fumble. He is not going to blow up for big production, but in a penetrating scheme like the one Houston will run, he could excel.

At 27-10-3.5, Collins saw the best production of his career last year. Those numbers are short of impressive but it is worth mentioning that most of them, including all of the sacks, came over the final nine games. Unless your league has a lot of teams or deeper than normal rosters, neither Collins nor Rankins is roster worthy at this point, but keep an eye on their production in the first couple of games.

• DE Willie Anderson Jr. – Future star with the potential to post strong numbers as a rookie
• DE Jonathan Greenard – Sleeper with a fairly high ceiling and a pretty low floor
• DE Jerry Hughes – Matchup-based spot play with a limited ceiling
• DE Chase Winovich – Deep sleeper at best
• DT Maliek Collins – Possible depth in leagues starting two tackles
• DT Sheldon Rankins – Possible DT2, probable DT3
• DT Ryan Lopez – No impact
• DT Hassan Ridgeway – No impact
• DT Booker Washington – Second-year man that could make a little noise

Linebackers

The Texans are concentrating their efforts on building the defense from front to back. Maybe the linebacker position will be addressed next off-season. In the meantime, they will make the best of what they have to work with. Christian Kirksey, Denzel Perryman, and Cory Littleton are all veteran journeymen that have had success both on the field and in the box scores during their careers. All three of them have produced top twelve numbers at least once, and under the current circumstances, any of the three, or second-year pro, Christian Harris, could do it in 2023.

Kirksey would be the favorite. He has been a starting three-down backer for most of his nine years in the league. His best production came with the Browns in 2016 and 2017 when he put up strong back-to-back seasons with 140+ tackles and a few splash plays. He battled injuries from 2018 through 2021 before finally playing a full slate of games last year when he ranked 22 among linebackers, totaling 81-42-3 with 3 turnovers. There is no long-term expectation for Kirksey in Houston, but his experience and leadership probably make him the best fit at middle linebacker for this year.

Harris will be in the mix for one of the starting jobs. Many managers and prognosticators have him pegged as the second starter in two linebacker looks. He held that role as a rookie last year when the team selected him in the third round, but this is a different scheme and a different coaching staff that has no ties to anyone that was here previously. Harris played every snap in nine of the twelve games he was active for last year, but I see him as more of a two-down player with limitations that might make him a less-than-stellar fit in the new scheme.

The new coaching staff is going to want linebackers that can run, cover, and make big plays. Cory Littleton has that going for him. He’s struggled to hold onto a starting job since leaving the Rams after the 2019 season but had two outstanding years with Los Angeles. Those seasons included 7.5 sacks, 11 turnovers, and 22 pass breakups, along with an average of 86 tackles and 44 assists. He has struggled to rekindle the flame, but when it comes to skill set, Littleton may be the best match of the group.

Perryman has a huge 2021 with the Raiders, but that is the only time in his eight seasons that he’s been a three-down player. There is always a chance, but I see him working on the strong side in three-linebacker looks, which means limited playing time.

The sleeper here that no one is talking about is rookie Henry To'oto'o. Nothing is outstanding about his physical ability, but To'oto'o is technically sound and plays smart football. He plays under control, makes the plays he should, and seems to always be where he is supposed to be. The biggest advantage he has is being drafted by the current coaching staff, but sometimes that is huge. Interestingly, To'oto'o's NFL player comparison by Lance Zierlein is Christian Kirksey.

• MLB Christian Kirksey – Steady LB3 if he plays full-time and can stay healthy
• WLB Christian Harris – Good player in the right scheme; I’m just not sure this is that scheme
• WLB Cory Littleton – Has the right skill set to prosper here
• SLB Denzel Perryman – Two down thumper, likely to have a limited role
• MLB Henry To'oto'o – Deep dynasty sleeper
• MLB Neville Hewitt – Produces when he gets on the field but has a lot of guys ahead of him
• WLB Blake Cashman – No impact expected
• MLB Garret Wallow – No impact expected

Defensive Backs

The Houston secondary was a gold mine of IDP value in 2022. It gave us the top two producers of solo tackles among defensive backs in Jalen Pitre and Jonathan Owens, and the game’s number eight corner in Desmond King.

Pitre was the only non-linebacker to reach 100 solo tackles, and his 48 assists were third most by a defensive back. He was more than just a tackling machine, though. Pitre’s five picks were tied for the fifth most in the league. Together, those numbers add up to a dominating performance, the likes of which are rarely seen. Pitre was not only the highest-scoring defensive back, but he outscored number two, Rayshawn Jenkins, by an incredible 31 points. What we have to figure out now is how close he can come to repeating those numbers in the future.

Production on this level from any position is rare and nearly always the culmination of a perfect storm. This particular storm started at Baylor when Pitre made the switch from inside linebacker to safety. It continued when he was drafted by a team with a leaky front seven that would go on to have the worst run defense in the game. Thus supplying the expanded number of opportunities.

Pitre proved himself to be an outstanding player and a great fit under the previous circumstances. All of that, or at least much of it, has changed now. The Texans still have a questionable linebacker corps, but the scheme is much different and the team should be improved in general. There is little doubt that Pitre will once again finish among the top defensive backs, and he is a clear favorite to be number one again, but not by anywhere near the same margin since that kind of domination is rarely repeated at any position.

There should be more competition for tackles from this year’s linebacker group, but Pitre will not have Owens to contend with. Jimmie Ward was signed to take over at free safety after Owens bolted to the Packers. Ward is a significant upgrade over Owens in terms of on-field play, but we should not expect him to produce at the same rate on the stat sheet. Ward is entering his tenth season and has not yet completed a full schedule of games, missing two or more in every year of his career. Even when healthy, he is never been a fantasy-friendly player. That said, it will be interesting to see how it pans out when a player that doesn’t make many tackles is stuck in a situation where he almost has to. For what it’s worth, I have six as the under on how many games he plays before getting hurt and missing time.

With Ward as the starter, it is important to know who is next up on the depth chart. As it stands now, that would be M.J. Stewart. Stewart would also collect the overlap if the team deploys three safeties. He has been a safety/corner tweener for much of his career and has seen some time as a slot back. Stewart has never put together consistent numbers, but he has been fairly productive in spot duty, suggesting that he should have some value if he ends up starting for a stretch.

Desmond King finished last season as a top-ten corner, but it would not have happened that way had rookie Derek Stingly not been injured in week ten. King had been working as the nickel corner up to that point, seeing action on anywhere between 32% and 76% of the snaps. After Stingley’s injury, King moved into the full-time role, rarely leaving the field. With Stingley back and the addition of Shaquill Griffin, King will go back to his nickel role. That doesn’t necessarily mean he will have no value, but it is unlikely he will make the top ten again.

Stingley was on pace for 66 tackles and 16 assists when he was lost to a lingering hamstring injury in week ten. He was a top-20 corner at the time of the injury, despite not showing much big play production. The tackle numbers were enough to make Stingley a decent second starter, but don’t count on that continuing. He was not statistically productive in college, and if the rookie corner rule holds true, we should see his tackle numbers slip in his second season.

With a healthy Stingly locked in as one outside corner and King in the slot, Shaquill Griffin and Steven Nelson are left to compete for the other starting spot. Griffin will be the favorite, but he has fallen well short of IDP value since leaving Seattle after the 2020 season.

• SS Jalen Pitre – Elite tier DB1, but don’t expect a repeat of last year’s total domination
• FS Jimmie Ward – Great situation meets traditionally unproductive player
• SS Eric Murray – No impact
• FS M.J. Stewart – Injury sleeper that should start some games
• CB Derek Stingley Jr – Marginal IDP value at best
• CB Shaquill Griffin – No impact expected
• CB Steven Nelson – No impact
• CB Desmond King II – Possible CB2
• CB Tavierre Thomas – No impact
• CB Kendall Sheffield – No impact

That’s a wrap on this chapter. The Jaguars are up next.

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