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Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | San Francisco | Seattle

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

The 2022 season was unusual for the Steelers defense for a few reasons. For the first time in memory, Pittsburgh led the league in interceptions with twenty, but also for the first time in memory, they forced fewer than ten fumbles and were dead last in recovering opponent’s fumbles with three. This is from a unit that, from 2018 through 2021, averaged 16.5 forced and better than 10 recovered. Even more un-Steeler-like were their sack numbers from 2022. Most teams would be satisfied with 40 sacks. For the Steelers, who led the league for an impressive five consecutive seasons with at least 52, it was disappointing.

There were some other disappointing numbers associated with the Steelers' defense in 2022. Only the Chiefs allowed more than Pittsburgh’s 29 passing touchdowns. And only three teams surrendered more yards per pass attempt. On the other hand, the run defense was strong, at least statistically. They tied New England for the fewest rushing scores allowed, were sixth in yards per carry, and ninth in rush yards allowed.

Defensive Linemen

Not surprisingly, the organization made significant additions at all three levels of the defense, but the most important factor in them getting back on track will be having T.J. Watt healthy for an entire season. Watt suffered a partially torn pectoral in week one last year. It was not season-ending but cost him seven games and left him at less than 100% well beyond that. As a result, after four consecutive years with at least 14 sacks and a league-leading 22.5 in 2021, Watt totaled 5.5 last year.

With more than 55 combined tackles in each of his previous five seasons, 22 forced fumbles, 7 recoveries, and 32 batted passes, Watt is among the few 3-4 edge defenders to hold significant fantasy value regardless of positional designation. In the True Position format that many/most IDP leagues are turning to, Watt is a strong candidate to be the number one edge defender. At the very least, he joins Maxx Crosby, Myles Garrett, and Nick Bosa on the elite first tier. It would be impossible to argue against Watt as the first edge guy off the board and difficult to argue against him being the first defender overall.

Watt is the best but far from the only Pittsburgh defensive lineman to have significant IDP value. Alex Highsmith was the team’s third-round pick in 2020. Like most rookie edge defenders, he posted modest numbers in year one. In his second season, Highsmith began to show up. His sack totals remained modest at six, but the 46 solo stops and 28 assists were enough to put him on the IDP radar. Even without the help of Watt for much of the season, Highsmith broke out in 2022. With 62 combined tackles, 14 sacks, and 5 forced fumbles, he was top-ten among edge defenders. He turns 26 in August and is just entering the prime of what looks to be an outstanding NFL career.

When it comes to Highsmith’s IDP value, a lot of managers are late to the party. He is gaining recognition but is currently being drafted well below projected value. If you miss out on one of the elite guys, pick him up as a bargain DE1. If you land one of the elite and can get Highsmith as your second starter, no one in your league will have a better tandem of starters.

The Steelers were rather disappointed with the play of Malik Reed early last season. To guard against the possibility of such a drop-off in the future, the team added Markus Golden in free agency and used a fourth-round pick on Wisconsin’s Nick Herbig.

Golden is one of the league's more underrated edge defenders. A second-round pick of the Cardinals in 2015, he put up twelve sacks in 2016. Golden suffered a major injury early the following year, and the Cardinals were not patient enough to let him fully recover. He signed with the Giants in 2019, going 38-34-10 on the year. He was back with Arizona after a mid-season trade in 2020 and had another strong year with the team in 2021 at 33-15-11 with 5 turnovers. For some reason, he fell out of favor again in 2022 and was not re-signed. Golden’s role will be limited if everyone stays healthy. Keep his name in mind and move quickly if either Watt or Highsmith misses time.

The Steelers have a long and storied history of turning mid to late-round picks, and even an occasional undrafted free agent (James Harrison), into outstanding players. Nick Herbig could become another name on that list. He is undersized for an edge defender and will need to hit the weight room to stand up against NFL tackles, but is quick and slippery as a pass rusher. He certainly checks the box for college production, having tallied 72 tackles, 36 assists, 20 sacks, and 6 turnovers in 24 games as a starter at Wisconsin before declaring for the draft after his junior year. There is even some speculation that Herbig might get a look as an off-ball, inside linebacker. That would make sense, as it is a position the Steelers have struggled to fill since the loss of Ryan Shazier in 2017.

Cameron Heyward has twelve NFL seasons under his belt. He has been incredibly consistent throughout his career, but the last two years have been among his best. All he did at age 33 was pile up 75 combined tackles, 10 sacks, 2 turnovers, and 5 batted passes.

For most of his career, Heyward was considered a defensive end in the Steelers 3-4. With that designation, he was a good DE2. Recently, both the Steelers and IDP leagues using the True Position format, have him as a defensive tackle where his value is that of an elite, tier one. In 2021, Heyward was the fantasy game's top interior lineman, outscoring Aaron Donald by almost a point per game. Last year Heyward slipped to number two behind only Christian Wilkins. At age 34, Heyward’s IDP value in dynasty leagues may drop a few slots, but he has shown no sign of slowing down. If you are looking to win this year, he can help you get there.

Larry Ogunjobi and second-round rookie Keeanu Benton fill out the rest of the starting lineup at the first level. Ogunjobi has bounced around the league a bit in recent years, largely because he has trouble staying healthy. He is an athletic big man that played well at the three-technique for the Browns before the rash of annoying minor injuries started. Ogunjobi posted a career-best of seven sacks from that same position with the Bengals in 2021. Last year was his first with a team playing mostly three-man fronts. Statistically, it was a down season with 48 tackles but a lone sack. Ogunjobi’s skill set makes him a good fit in the Steelers' scheme, and a second year in the system should bring better numbers. That said, let him show us something before committing a valuable roster spot.

Keeanu Benton projects as the starting nose tackle, mostly because of the second-round investment the team made but also for his growth potential at the position. He played at around 317 pounds while at Wisconsin but had trimmed down to 309 during the draft process. Benton did not put up flashy numbers with the Badgers, but he did have nine career sacks. He will compete with Montravius Adams and possibly free-agent additions Breiden Fehoko and Armon Watts for playing time. We have not seen much production from the Steelers' nose guard over the years. There is no reason to think that will change.

• DE T.J. Watt – Elite tier DE1 with possible first defender drafted value
• DE Alex Highsmith – Priority DE2 with top-twelve upside
• DE Markus Golden – Keep him on speed dial in case of injury
• DE Nick Herbig – Developmental rookie with high long-term potential
• DT Cameron Heyward – Elite tier DT1
• DT Larry Ogunjobi – Potential depth in tackle-required leagues
• NT Keeanu Benton – No grand expectations for the rookie
• DT DeMarvin Leal – Second-year developmental prospect
• NT Montravius Adams – No impact

Linebackers

The Steelers are done messing around at the inside linebacker position. They jettisoned former first-round pick Devin Bush, last year’s free agent addition Myles Jack, and the one consistent contributor they had at the position over the last two seasons, Robert Spillane. The only remaining holdover at the position is 2022 seventh-round pick, Mark Robinson, who is still in the developmental stages of his career.

The new-look Steelers will turn to free-agent additions Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts to fill the void, with journeymen Tanner Muse and Nick Kwiatkoski in reserve. Holcomb spent most of his four seasons in Washington as a starter. He has experience both on the weak side and in the middle of the Commanders 4-3 and would seem a good fit for what the Steelers do.

Holcomb is physical against the run, rarely missing tackles. He has good range, is dependable in coverage so long as he’s not put in a bad spot, and will contribute in the big play columns, which is something the team has been missing on the inside. Last year's top trio at the position accounted for one sack and zero turnovers between them.

Holcomb’s 2022 season was cut short by a foot injury that required surgery in December. He was limited in OTAs but is expected to be full go for the opening of training camp. In 2021 he finished as the fantasy game’s number twelve linebacker, going 84-57-1 with five turnovers and 7 passes defended. Through seven games last year, he was on pace for 90 tackles and 78 assists. Washington doesn’t blitz a lot, but Holcomb still managed four sacks while there. That is another good sign of his IDP potential, as the Steelers send their inside linebacker on the blitz often.

For IDP managers, the only concern with Holcomb is injuries. In 2020 he missed six games with a knee sprain. He missed one game in 2021 but played several with a sore ankle. Last year it was the foot that was his first major problem. If he can stay on the field, Holcomb should be at least a solid LB2 with the potential to breach the top twelve.

Elandon Roberts is a wildcard. He spent his first four seasons in linebacker purgatory, AKA New England, where roles were shuffled often, and he was never allowed to stay on the field with consistency. Then he went to Miami, AKA New England South, where he was under the same coaching tree and in a similar situation. As a result, Roberts has been in the league for seven seasons and has been a factor in his team’s defense in each of them, but we still don’t know what he is capable of.

What we do know is that Roberts can blitz. He has eleven career sacks, including four and a half last year. We have seen both the Patriots and Dolphins leave him on the field in sub-package situations at times, so he is not a liability in coverage. And we know he can be productive in the tackle columns after watching him post 65 solos and 40 assists on 725 snaps last season. One other thing we know that is important to the equation, the Steelers like to have two inside linebackers on the field most of the time. No one is paying much attention to Roberts in the early drafts I’ve seen. Put him on your sleeper list and keep an eye on the situation moving forward.

Mark Robinson, Nick Kwiatkoski, and Tanner Muse will compete to determine the pecking order behind the starters. Robinson is a former running back that moved to linebacker in 2021, so he may not be ready to contribute beyond special teams yet. Muse is a former safety that the Raiders drafted in the third round in 2020. He spent last season playing mostly special teams for the Seahawks and is an unknown commodity at this point. Kwiatkoski earned a nice paycheck in free agency after playing well as an injury replacement for the Bears in 2019. The Raiders plugged him in as a starter for a while during the 2020 season but pulled the plug when he proved not to be a good fit in the scheme. He spent last season playing special teams for the Falcons.

• ILB Cole Holcomb – Strong LB2 candidate with some injury risk
• ILB Elandon Robert – Sleeper with a fairly high ceiling
• ILB Nick Kwiatkoski – Has a history of good production as an injury replacement
• ILB Tanner Muse – Former college safety that has not played much as a pro
• ILB Mark Robinson – Developmental player with a lot of long-term potential

Defensive Backs

At this time last year, we were trying to figure out who Minkah Fitzpatrick really is. After posting no more than 60 solo stops and 80 combined in any of his first three seasons, Fitzpatrick blew up for 84 solos and 39 assists in 2021. The 2022 season confirmed he is not a 100+ tackle guy, as those totals fell back to 56 and 39, but there has never been any question about his splash play production. Fitzpatrick turned in a new career-best with six interceptions and ties his previous record of eleven pass breakups. After finishing as the fantasy game’s number-four defensive back in 2021, he did not slide far, landing at eight overall and sixth in average points per game (he missed two).

Because much of his value comes from big plays, Fitzpatrick will pitch a stinker once in a while. He had four weeks with fewer than five points last year. He also had a 36.5 point week, a 22.1, and three others with 15+. He can win the game for you one week and lose it the next, but in the end, his point totals are going to be top-twelve. The risk factor comes down to personal preference.

With Terrell Edmunds moving on, there is an unclear picture of the strong safety position. Many were surprised that the team failed to address the position more convincingly in either free agency or the draft. I’m not so sure they didn’t. A lot of people have forgotten that Keanu Neal had three good seasons as the starting strong safety for the Falcons. He missed virtually all of 2018 and 2019 with injury but started 46 games over the other three years he was there. The guy is a former first-round pick, and he played like it.

As a rookie in 2016, he produced 104 tackles (71 solo), forced 5 fumbles, recovered 1, and broke up 8 passes in fourteen games. In year two, Neal was 83-33-0 with 6 more turnovers and 6 pass breakups. He came back after the injury in 2020 to go 77-23-1 with a pair of turnovers, then moved on to Dallas, where they wanted him to play linebacker. Neal spent last season as the third safety in Tampa Bay, where he started and played full-time at safety in seven games, going 42-21- 0 with a pick. The guy is healthy, hungry, and turns 28 in July. Don’t overlook him at the end of your draft.

The Steelers have one other option at strong safety in Damontae Kazee. At 174 pounds, he is more of a free safety in terms of size and skill set, but Kazee performed well as an injury replacement for Neal in 2018 and 2019. In 2018 he tallied 81 combined tackles and 7 interceptions. He is a surprisingly physical tackler for his size and has the cover skills of a slot corner. Kazee has not been a starter since 2019 but added a couple of picks to his resume while with the Cowboys in 2021 and two more in limited action (273 snaps) with the Steelers last year. It is noteworthy to mention that he got the start at strong safety when Edmunds missed the week 16 game.

It had been a long time since the Steelers used a premium draft pick or spent serious money on the corner position. This offseason, they did both, signing Patrick Peterson in free agency and then using the first pick of round two on Joey Porter Jr Jr. Peterson is entering year 13 of an outstanding career. If he has lost a step at age 33, he makes up for it with veteran savvy and experience.

Peterson has never been much of an IDP factor. He has never reached 60 solo stops in a season, with a career-best of 66 combined stops. He averages slightly better than three turnovers and slightly fewer than ten passes defended per season. He will make the Steelers a better team, but Peterson’s biggest IDP impact won’t show up in his stat line. It will show up in that of Porter.

Offenses have been reluctant to challenge Peterson for his entire career. Thus the low box score production. Add in the fresh meat on the other side, and offensive coordinators will have visions of touchdowns dancing in their heads. Porter is used to being the guy that offenses avoid, and he may well get back to that point in a year or two, but for now, he is the inexperienced rookie playing opposite the proven star. Porter’s production at Penn State was rather weak. Not because he is not capable but because he was not targeted. There will be plenty of balls thrown his way in 2023, making him a prime candidate for the rookie corner rule.

Holdovers Levi Wallace and James Pierre will compete with Chandon Sullivan, who followed Peterson from the Vikings, to determine the pecking order and sub-package personnel behind the starters. This team has not produced many DP-relevant corners over the years. If Porter is not the guy to break the trend, it’s not going to be broken this year.

• FS Minkah Fitzpatrick – Somewhat inconsistent DB1
• SS Damontae Kazee – Sleeper with DB3 potential if he starts
• SS Keanu Neal – One of my favorite deep sleepers
• FS Tre Norwood – No impact expected
• CB Patrick Peterson – Marginal IDP value at best
• CB Joey Porter Jr II – Rookie corner rule spells plenty of balls thrown his way
• CB Chandon Sullivan – No impact expected
• CB Levi Wallace – No impact expected
• CB James Pierre – No impact expected

Next time we wrap up the AFC North with the Ravens

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