Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today’s NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

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The Broncos were a good but not great defense in 2022. The only significant statistical category they managed a top-five ranking was yards per pass attempt. On the other hand, the only category they finished in the bottom half of the league was sacks, where they were tied for 23rd.

The offseason saw a few potentially significant personnel changes, but the most important addition may be defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. The good news here is that Joseph runs a 3-4 that is somewhat similar to what the team ran last year. There will be some change, but they will not be reinventing the wheel.

For a good picture of what Joseph’s defense will look like, check out the Cardinals, where he has been running the show for the last four seasons. There is one big difference, though, is that he will have better personnel in some important areas.

Defensive Linemen

When pondering the Broncos’ defensive front, It’s hard to decide between optimism and pessimism. They have talented players on the outside. Free agent addition Frank Clark comes over from division foe Kansas City. The optimist sees a proven 29-year-old player that averaged better than ten sacks per season from 2016 through 2019. The pessimist sees a player that has 15 sacks over the last three seasons and was not pursued by the team he’s spent the last four years with.

In Randy Gregory, the optimist sees a highly talented player with a high ceiling and low miles who is ready for a breakout year. The pessimist sees a player that’s been on the verge of a breakout since he entered the league in 2015 but has always fallen short for one reason or another. A guy that, at age 30, has 12 career sacks.

In Barron Browning, the optimist sees a rising young star who can become the next great Broncos edge defender. The pessimist sees a player with unproven potential coming off an injury and may not be 100% until late in the season.

What I see here is a collection of players to avoid completely in redraft leagues. For those in dynasty leagues, Browning is an intriguing prospect. At 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, he is small for a three-down edge defender and sometimes struggles when teams run at him. As a pass rusher, Browning shows a lot of potential.

When Denver drafted Browning in the third round back in 2021, they knew he was a talented player but were not sure what to do with him. Browning spent his rookie campaign trying to fit at inside backer. When that failed, he was moved outside, and things fell into place.

Browning spent a lot of time with the trainers last season. Despite missing three games and playing hurt in several others, he managed five sacks on 571 plays. Off-season surgery to clean up his ailing knee could land Browning on the PUP to start the season, and he may not be healthy until late in the campaign.

From an IDP perspective, it’s likely Browning will never give us much in the tackle columns, but once healthy, he could become a perennial double-digit sack guy.

Nose tackle D.J. Jones is the only returning starter among the interior linemen. Jones is a strong anchor against the run and has the power to push the pocket, but most of his contributions on the field, go unrecognized in the box scores.

Dre’mont Jones and DeShawn Williams filled out last year’s interior line. Jones managed useful numbers for those that could play him as a tackle. At 24-20-6.5, he was the No. 18 interior lineman. This is important to know because Coach Joseph brought Zach Allen over from Arizona with him, and Allen will be playing that spot.

Allen landed at 15 in last year’s final rankings at tackle. The kicker is that he did it despite missing the last four games. He had a breakout season in 2021, posting 45 combined stops, 3 sacks, and 4 turnovers. Allen was on a similar points trajectory in 2022 before missing time. Twelve batted passes over the last two seasons (eight last year) give him a little boost in leagues awarding points for passes defended. An easy transition to a familiar role should mean continued quality production and a high DT2 value with low DT1 upside.

Mike Purcell should come away with the other starting job at tackle, though he will also see snaps in the middle. Purcell is hard to move and tends to post decent tackle totals when healthy, but he is not much of a pass rusher. That opens the door for the possibility of second-year pro, Matt Hennigan, to land the job. He averaged roughly 13 snaps a game last year, totaling 8-11-1 on the year. The coaching staff seemed to like what they saw, which may have contributed to the team’s decision to move on from Williams.

• Edge Frank Clark – DL3 ceiling if he has a good year
• Edge Randy Gregory – Plenty of untapped potential, but...
• Edge Barron Browning – Better as a dynasty target
• Edge Jonathan Cooper – Solid NFL player that will get some snaps in relief
• Edge Nik Bonito – Good depth for the Broncos but no value for us
• DT Zach Allen – Priority DT2 with late DT1 upside
• DT D.J. Jones – No impact
• DT Matt Henningsen – Watch-list sleeper
• DT Mike Purcell – Marginal IDP value
• DT Jonathan Harris – No impact expected

Linebackers

The Broncos are in a good place at inside linebacker and are one of the rare instances of a team with a pair of top-20 IDP targets at the position. Had Josey Jewell not missed three games, they might have had a pair of top-12 guys in 2022. Most IDP managers, at least those that did not have him, are surprised to learn that Jewells’ average of 14.6 points per game ranked third behind Foye Oluokun and Roquan Smith.

Jewell struggled in coverage early in his career but has developed into one of the league's excellent three-down guys on the inside. Last year’s campaign was a breakout season for the then fifth year-pro. On the field, he was rock solid against the run and showed marked improvement as a pass defender. In the box scores, he was a beast, averaging nine combined tackles per game while rolling up eight splash plays (turnovers or sacks) over the season. The new defensive coaching staff brings a bit of uncertainty, but Jewell should have a similar role with similar results in 2023.

The surprise of last season was the emergence of Alex Singleton. Well, it was sort of a surprise anyway. He put up great numbers and seemed to play well as a two-year starter for the Eagles in 2020 and 2021, but they never saw him as more than a stopgap. The Broncos seemed to have the same opinion, signing Singleton for backup money and making him the top backup behind Jewell and Jonas Griffith to open the season. When Griffith was injured in week ten, Singleton stepped in and played well enough to secure his role as a starter.

When all the numbers were in, Singleton was one of six players to reach triple-digit solo tackles. And one of eight to reach 60 assists. Solid as those numbers are, the most impressive statistic is that he made all those plays on just 771 snaps, making Singleton the most productive linebacker in the game on a per-snap basis. His one weakness is a lack of big plays. Over the last three seasons, he has had a modest six turnovers and two sacks. Singleton will see 100% participation in many games unless Jewell is hurt again, but 80-85% is more than enough to keep him in the LB1 conversation.

There is a wildcard in play here. Denver used an early third-round pick on Arkansas middle backer, Drew Sanders. For some IDP managers, this was a headscratcher because the team already had two good starters. It’s all about the money, folks. Denver was looking ahead to next year when Jewell will hit free agency. If he has another strong year, the veteran is going to demand and probably get a big contract. The presence of Sanders gives them options, especially if he plays up to expectations.

There was a time, not so long ago, when rookie linebackers drafted in the first three rounds would often walk into full-time roles right away. With the complexity of today’s defenses, we are seeing more and more instances of guys seeing part-time action early on, then moving into the full-time role in year two.

At 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, Sanders is a physical run defender with good range. He has the speed and athleticism to handle coverage and excels on the blitz from the inside. He put up strong numbers last season with 103 combined tackles, five pass breakups, and five turnovers to his credit. All things considered, Sanders would seem to be a good fit on the inside in Denver’s scheme. There could be another plan for him, though.

Sanders tallied nine and a half sacks for the Razorbacks as a senior and has the versatility to line up outside as a stand-up edge defender. This begs the question, could we be looking at another Barron Browning situation? All options are on the table for Denver. In the short term, I expect Sanders will at least have a role, probably in passing situations, allowing him to gain much-needed experience while giving the coaching staff a chance to figure out his best fit.

The bottom line for IDP managers is Sanders has a lot of long-term upside if he stays on the inside. A complete move to the edge would likely make him an undersized nickel rush specialist with a sub-package role. The upside makes Sanders a good dynasty target, but the risk is real that he could be an IDP bust.

Between Sanders, Jonas Griffith, and Justin Strnad, Denver is in good shape for depth at inside linebacker. Griffith was not playing as well as expected in the starting role last year, but the organization still feels he can get the job done if needed. Strnad makes his living mostly on special teams, but he, too, has been serviceable as a spot starter in the past.

• ILB Alex Singleton – Top-20 with potential to make the top-12
• ILB Josey Jewell – Solid LB1 that might slide on draft day
• ILB Drew Sanders – Dynasty target with a low floor and high ceiling
• ILB Jonas Griffith – Marginal value at best
• ILB Justin Strnad – No impact expected.

Defensive Backs

The Broncos' secondary is a diverse unit in that they have young starters, middle-of-their-career starters, and probable last-hurrah starters coming together to form a solid unit. Strong safety Justin Simmons is among the league’s best on the field and is the most promising IDP target of the group. Looking at his overall numbers from last year tells a tainted tale because he missed five games. The important statistic to look at is the average points per game, where Simmons ranked fourth in 2022 at 12.5.

Much, if not most, of Simmons’ IDP value is found in the big play columns. Barring injury, he can be counted on for 60-65 solo stops and around 25 assists. Those numbers will not win us championships but add five or six turnovers, about ten pass breakups, and maybe a sack, and we are looking at an every-week IDP starter. In twelve games last year, Simmons accounted for ten takeaways and seven pass breakups. He has at least six splash plays in each of the last three seasons, with an average of eleven passes defended since 2019.

Simmons is arguably the league’s most underrated safety. There is no weakness to his game. He is smart, physical, can run with most receivers, and has a knack for making game-changing plays. At 29 years old, he is still in his prime and is signed through 2025. A little week-to-week inconsistency taints his IDP value a bit, often making him slide further down the draft than he should. It’s a gambler's risk every time he’s in a lineup, but we could do much worse for a second starter.

At age 35, Kareem Jackson may be entering the final season of a distinguished career as Denver brought him back on a one-year deal. At his best, Jackson was never much more than a decent DB3 in IDP terms. On the field, he is a dependable safety net with veteran savvy covering for any slip in physical skills. He may not be the player he once was, but if the Broncos struggle this year, it won’t be Jackson’s fault.

When Denver selected Patrick Surtain II in the first round three years ago, they secured one of the league’s elite young corners. His combination of size, speed, athleticism, and instincts are the stuff of dreams for defensive coordinators. Like most great players at the position, however, Surtain is not going to give us a lot in the box scores simply because offenses know that throwing his way is tough sledding.

As a young and inexperienced corner opposite Surtain, Damarri Mathis had a lot of opportunity last season. The elevated number of throws coming his way resulted in good tackle totals for a corner on most weeks. Mathis was on pace for 66 solo stops and about 15 assists had he not missed three games. The big play columns were blank for the rookie, but that should change with a year of experience under his belt. Mathis is not a draft target for most managers but deserves a spot on the watch list as a possible early-season waiver addition.

Third-round rookie, Riley Moss, is the wildcard here. At worst, he should compete with veteran K’waun Williams for the third spot in the pecking order and sub-package duties. At best, Moss could press Mathis for the IDP-friendly starting spot opposite Surtain. If he lands a near full-time role, the rookie corner rule would be in play.

• SS Justin Simmons – Solid DB2 with a little week-to-week consistency issue
• FS Kareem Jackson – Marginal value in most formats
• FS P.J. Locke – No impact expected
• SS Caden Sterns – The player to target if Simmons is injured
• FS Delarrin Turner-Yell – No impact
• CB Patrick Surtain II – Great corners are generally not the best IDP targets
• CB Damarri Mathis – A few big plays would go a long way toward IDp relevance
• CB Riley Moss – Rookie corner rule could be in play
• CB K'Waun Williams – No impact anticipated
• CB Essang Bassey – No impact

That does it for Part 4 of this year’s preseason offering. Next up, the Arizona Cardinals

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