Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today’s NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Related: See a similar in-depth look at the Las Vegas Raiders defensive players here >>>

The Chargers' defensive unit had its ups and downs in 2022. They were solid versus the pass, allowing the seventh-fewest yards and seventh in completion percentage. The pass rush delivered a very respectable 40 sacks, and their 24 takeaways ranked in the top half of the league. On the other hand, the run defense was a thorn in their side. Los Angeles was last in yards per carry at a whopping 5.4, 28th in rush yards allowed, and 22nd in rushing scores. At least it was not difficult to figure out where they needed to improve. On paper, it’s hard to tell if they have.

Defensive Linemen and Edge Rushers

At the defensive line and edge positions, the Chargers will go into 2023 with the same starters as Week 1 last season. If they can keep that group together for more than two games, it will go a long way toward a better year. In 2022, Joey Bosa opened with a sack and a half against the Raiders in Week 1 and finished the season with a sack versus Denver in Week 18. In between, he missed twelve games and most of another with a groin injury, robbing the team of what was supposed to be a dynamic duo on the outside.

A healthy Bosa is among the league’s elite three-down edge defenders. Over his seven seasons as a pro, he has reached double-digit sacks four times. In each of the other three years (2018, 2020, and 2022), he missed time with injuries. Most of Bosa’s recognition and accolades come courtesy of his skill as a pass rusher, but he is far more than just a speedster off the edge. Bosa is one of the better outside run defenders as well.

In IDP terms, Bosa has the potential to be a perennial top-12 stud. Unfortunately, his injuries have burned a lot of managers, making them gun-shy. Is it a case of being injury prone or just unlucky? That call is hard to make. What we do know, however, is when healthy, Bosa averages about 43-17-11 and 3 turnovers. He is an elite-tier talent that should be available in the area of DE2 on draft day. If you can get him at that price, the risk is worth the potential reward.

No one will be happier to see a healthy Bosa than Khalil Mack, who is also an elite-tier talent though he has not looked like it since leaving the Raiders ahead of the 2018 season. Mack managed double-digit sacks in his first year with the Bears, followed by a steady decline in production over the next three seasons. He never had much help there and escaped Chicago for Los Angeles last year. Mack’s numbers rebounded a little even without Bosa in 2022. At 32-18-7.5 with 4 turnovers and 2 batted passes, his fantasy value was limited to that of a backup-level player, but he showed signs of the player that started his career on a run of four years in the top five.

Mack turned 32 in February and enters the fourth quarter of an outstanding career. Like an NFL game, however, a lot of points can be scored in the fourth quarter. With a significantly better supporting cast to keep opponents honest, Mack could be in line for a big comeback. At worst, he is a strong number three for IDP managers. At best, he could make a run at the top-12.

The Chargers added to their edge arsenal by selecting Tuli Tuipulotu in the second round. At 6-foot-3 and 266 pounds, he is a bit on the short side compared to many of today’s elite pass rushers. That did not stop him from impressing as a starter for USC in 2022. He is a versatile defender with enough sand in his pants to slip inside and grab a few snaps. His pass rush success with the Trojans was based more on power and tenacity than speed and quickness, giving him the balanced skill set that teams look for in a three-down player.

With 46 combined tackles, 13.5 sacks, a pair of forced fumbles, and 3 batted passes, Tuipulotu checks the box for production. The organization likely sees him as the eventual heir to Mack. For now, he should be the third man in the rotation and an insurance policy behind Bosa. It might take a year or two, but Tuipulotu should eventually become a quality starter at the pro level and a productive IDP option.

The edge guys are not the only IDP targets along the Chargers’ defensive line, especially for those managers using the True Position format where the down linemen in 3-4 schemes are eligible as tackles. In this format, guys like Sebastian Joseph-Day and Morgan Fox are relevant. If your host has not yet made the move, drop them a note and let them know it is time to do so.

Joseph-Day totaled 55 combined tackles, forced 3 turnovers, and recorded a pair of sacks in 2022. Those numbers were in line with his career averages and were enough to make him a solid second starter in leagues requiring interior linemen. Fox tends to be a little lighter in the tackle columns but is a bigger contributor in the sack department sacks.

Antonio Johnson rounds out the starting lineup at nose tackle, with free agent addition Nick Williams likely seeing a good share of the playing time as well. Both of these players are quality contributors on the field, but their contributions are not going to show up strongly in the box scores.

• DT Sebastian Joseph-Day – Steady and dependable DT2
• DT Austin Johnson – No statistical impact
• DT Otito Ogbonnia – Deep sleeper at best
• DT Morgan Fox – Probable depth in tackle-required leagues
• DT Nick Williams – No impact expected
• DE Joey Bosa – Solid DL1 with some injury risk
• DE Khalil Mack – DL3 floor with priority DL2 potential
• DE Chris Rumph – No impact
• DE Tuli Tuipulotu – Dynasty target with strong long-term upside

Linebackers

The off-ball linebacker positions have been a problem spot for Los Angeles in recent years. Drue Tranquill landed inside the fantasy game’s top 10 last year and did a solid job in NFL terms, but too many of his 144 combined tackles were more than four-plus yards down the field. Thus, there was not much, if any, effort to keep him from signing with the Chiefs.

On the field, the addition of Kendricks as Tranquill’s replacement is a plus for the Chargers. They get a more complete player and an upgrade versus the run in particular. From the statistical perspective, it is a virtual push.

Kendricks spent eight seasons as a starter with the Vikings, with the highest tackle totals of his career coming over the last two campaigns. His 87 solo stops in 2022 were a career-high. He is not exactly a big-play linebacker, but he will contribute in those columns as well. Kendricks averaged about two-and-a-half turnovers and seven pass breakups per season while with Minnesota, adding 14 career sacks.

There is always an element of unknown when a player changes teams. That said, Kendricks looks like a good fit, and there is no reason to think the move will have a negative impact on his IDP value. If anything, it could give him a boost and a possible top-12 appearance.

Former first-round pick, Kenneth Murray, will enter training camp as the other starter at inside linebacker. He has not been a complete bust but has come up far short of expectations thus far. Murray struggled as a rookie when he was plugged into the lead role. The coaching staff even shifted him to outside linebacker for a while in an effort to get some return on their investment. That didn’t work, either. Murry’s second year was a wash due to an ankle injury, and last season he worked in a two-down role, seeing most of his action in early down base packages. There is no reason to think that will change in 2023, and if it does, it’s not likely to be for the better.

Los Angeles used a third-round pick on Daiyan Henley, who I believe will eventually pass Murray on the depth chart and may do it in training camp. He is hard-nosed, with good speed, excellent range, and solid cover skills, but most of all, Henely is a playmaker. As a starter for Nevada in 2021 and Washington State last year, he piled up 200 combined tackles, 14 turnovers, and recorded a pair of defensive scores in 24 games. Scouts will tell us that Henely needs to become more instinctive, but they will also tell us he can make up for his average instincts by being quick, decisive, and physical once he deciphers the play. Henely is my number two rookie linebacker in redraft leagues.

Nick Neimann was the team’s sixth-round pick in 2021. He saw a little action as a rookie but had no defensive stats last season. He and fellow third-year linebacker, Amen Ogbongbemiga, will have to hold off the challenge of some youngsters but should fill out the depth chart at linebacker when the season opens.

• ILB Eric Kendricks – High floor LB2 with top-10 upside
• ILB Daiyan Henley – Dynasty target that could produce as a rookie
• ILB Kenneth Murray – Marginal value at best
• ILB Nick Niemann – No impact expected
• ILB Amen Ogbongbemiga – No impact expected

Defensive Backs

There are not many safeties drafted in the first round. Derwin James is a member of that exclusive club and, when healthy, proves that he belongs. After a stellar rookie campaign in 2018, he battled through injuries, seeing little action in 2019 and missing 2020 altogether. James has not completed a full slate of games since his rookie year, but at least he has not missed more than three games in either of the last two seasons.

At 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds, James is both an enforcer and a playmaker in the secondary. A combination of size, speed, versatility, and a knack for explosive plays, make him a valuable chess piece for defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley. James is just as capable whether working at linebacker depth, as a box safety or as a centerfielder when called upon to line up deep.

As an IDP target, James comes with some risk. On the other hand, he has a pair of top-five finishes, and his 12.6 points per game was third among defensive backs in 2022. He consistently makes a lot of tackles while accounting for thirteen turnovers, nine sacks, and 24 pass breakups over roughly three seasons' worth of action. The injury potential scares me enough to drop James out of the top slot on my draft board, but his potential to be the number one defensive back keeps him in the top five.

Nasir Adderly unexpectedly retired in the off-season, creating an opportunity for Alohi Gilman to move into the starting lineup at free safety. The 2020 sixth-round pick has played well in relief over the last two seasons. So well that some might consider him an upgrade over Adderley anyway.

Asante Samuel, J.C. Jackson, and Michael Davis fill out the starters at the corner positions. They represent a fine collection of covermen, but none of them managed more than 49 solo or 62 combined tackles in 2022, nor did any of them produce enough splash plays to make up for it. When it comes to box score production from this group, James is a one-man show.

Outside of the five starters, Los Angeles is a bit shakey, or at least unproven. Last year’s third-round pick, J.T. Woods, will be the third safety, with third-year pro Mark Webb rounding out the depth chart. Between them, these two have six career tackles. The depth on the outside is a little better, with a handful of first- and second-year, former late-round picks filling the slots and competing to establish the pecking order for playing time.

• SS Derwin James – Safe bet as a top 3 DB if he plays every game
• FS Alohi Gilman – Marginal production at best
• FS JT Woods – No fantasy value expected
• SS Mark Webb – No IDP value at this point
• CB J.C. Jackson – Excellent corner with upside if he can stay healthy
• CB Asante Samuel – Third-year man already has offenses trying to avoid him
• CB Michael Davis – Dependable nickel corner with matchup-based value on some weeks
• CB Ja'Sior Taylor – Developmental second-year player

That does it for Part 3 of this year’s preseason offering. The Broncos are up next.

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