Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 3: Los Angeles Chargers

Photo: USA Today Sports

Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today’s NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Related: See a similar in-depth look at the Las Vegas Raiders defensive players here >>>

The Chargers' defensive unit had its ups and downs in 2022. They were solid versus the pass, allowing the seventh-fewest yards and seventh in completion percentage. The pass rush delivered a very respectable 40 sacks, and their 24 takeaways ranked in the top half of the league. On the other hand, the run defense was a thorn in their side. Los Angeles was last in yards per carry at a whopping 5.4, 28th in rush yards allowed, and 22nd in rushing scores. At least it was not difficult to figure out where they needed to improve. On paper, it’s hard to tell if they have.

Defensive Linemen and Edge Rushers

At the defensive line and edge positions, the Chargers will go into 2023 with the same starters as Week 1 last season. If they can keep that group together for more than two games, it will go a long way toward a better year. In 2022, Joey Bosa opened with a sack and a half against the Raiders in Week 1 and finished the season with a sack versus Denver in Week 18. In between, he missed twelve games and most of another with a groin injury, robbing the team of what was supposed to be a dynamic duo on the outside.

A healthy Bosa is among the league’s elite three-down edge defenders. Over his seven seasons as a pro, he has reached double-digit sacks four times. In each of the other three years (2018, 2020, and 2022), he missed time with injuries. Most of Bosa’s recognition and accolades come courtesy of his skill as a pass rusher, but he is far more than just a speedster off the edge. Bosa is one of the better outside run defenders as well.

In IDP terms, Bosa has the potential to be a perennial top-12 stud. Unfortunately, his injuries have burned a lot of managers, making them gun-shy. Is it a case of being injury prone or just unlucky? That call is hard to make. What we do know, however, is when healthy, Bosa averages about 43-17-11 and 3 turnovers. He is an elite-tier talent that should be available in the area of DE2 on draft day. If you can get him at that price, the risk is worth the potential reward.

No one will be happier to see a healthy Bosa than Khalil Mack, who is also an elite-tier talent though he has not looked like it since leaving the Raiders ahead of the 2018 season. Mack managed double-digit sacks in his first year with the Bears, followed by a steady decline in production over the next three seasons. He never had much help there and escaped Chicago for Los Angeles last year. Mack’s numbers rebounded a little even without Bosa in 2022. At 32-18-7.5 with 4 turnovers and 2 batted passes, his fantasy value was limited to that of a backup-level player, but he showed signs of the player that started his career on a run of four years in the top five.

Mack turned 32 in February and enters the fourth quarter of an outstanding career. Like an NFL game, however, a lot of points can be scored in the fourth quarter. With a significantly better supporting cast to keep opponents honest, Mack could be in line for a big comeback. At worst, he is a strong number three for IDP managers. At best, he could make a run at the top-12.

The Chargers added to their edge arsenal by selecting Tuli Tuipulotu in the second round. At 6-foot-3 and 266 pounds, he is a bit on the short side compared to many of today’s elite pass rushers. That did not stop him from impressing as a starter for USC in 2022. He is a versatile defender with enough sand in his pants to slip inside and grab a few snaps. His pass rush success with the Trojans was based more on power and tenacity than speed and quickness, giving him the balanced skill set that teams look for in a three-down player.

With 46 combined tackles, 13.5 sacks, a pair of forced fumbles, and 3 batted passes, Tuipulotu checks the box for production. The organization likely sees him as the eventual heir to Mack. For now, he should be the third man in the rotation and an insurance policy behind Bosa. It might take a year or two, but Tuipulotu should eventually become a quality starter at the pro level and a productive IDP option.

The edge guys are not the only IDP targets along the Chargers’ defensive line, especially for those managers using the True Position format where the down linemen in 3-4 schemes are eligible as tackles. In this format, guys like Sebastian Joseph-Day and Morgan Fox are relevant. If your host has not yet made the move, drop them a note and let them know it is time to do so.

Joseph-Day totaled 55 combined tackles, forced 3 turnovers, and recorded a pair of sacks in 2022. Those numbers were in line with his career averages and were enough to make him a solid second starter in leagues requiring interior linemen. Fox tends to be a little lighter in the tackle columns but is a bigger contributor in the sack department sacks.

Antonio Johnson rounds out the starting lineup at nose tackle, with free agent addition Nick Williams likely seeing a good share of the playing time as well. Both of these players are quality contributors on the field, but their contributions are not going to show up strongly in the box scores.

• DT Sebastian Joseph-Day – Steady and dependable DT2
• DT Austin Johnson – No statistical impact
• DT Otito Ogbonnia – Deep sleeper at best
• DT Morgan Fox – Probable depth in tackle-required leagues
• DT Nick Williams – No impact expected
• DE Joey Bosa – Solid DL1 with some injury risk
• DE Khalil Mack – DL3 floor with priority DL2 potential
• DE Chris Rumph – No impact
• DE Tuli Tuipulotu – Dynasty target with strong long-term upside