Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Denver | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | San Francisco | Seattle

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

The Rams sold out to win the Super Bowl after the 2021 season, expending a lot of roster-building capital (money and picks) to acquire proven veteran players and a few superstars. The gamble worked, but now it’s time to pay the piper. Los Angeles didn’t have a pick in the first two rounds in 2022 and was without a first again this year. They kept most of the band together last season but the magic was gone. This offseason found the team in salary cap purgatory, forcing a purge. Among those gone are Bobby Wagner, who led the team in tackles, Jalen Ramsey, who led them in turnovers, and Leonard Floyd, who led in sacks. With no cap room, one pick in the first two rounds over the last two drafts, and a lot of holes to fill, the organization is likely looking at double-digit losses in 2023. While that makes a long season for fans, it means a lot of opportunity for some young, unheralded players and plenty of potential value for IDP managers. After all, someone is going to make tackles.

Defensive Linemen

The Rams still have Aaron Donald, and they have… Well, at least they still have Aaron Donald. He turned 32 in May and has entered the fourth quarter of a stellar career, but Donald is far from done. At a glance, last year’s totals of 26-23-5 are not what we normally get from the future Hall of Famer. At least not until we average in the six games he missed at the end of the season. With that considered, his totals project closer to 42-34-8. Even at that Donald’s sack numbers were down but the combined tackles would be the second-highest of his career. The only concern I have with him is the lack of a supporting cast. Even the great Aaron Donald can be slowed down significantly if there is no one else to threaten the offense. He is still a high-end DT1, but don’t count on double-digit sacks or a top-three finish this time around.

Beyond Donald, even the Rams have no idea what they have along the defensive line. Bobby Brown III projects as the starting nose tackle, but the 2021 fourth-round pick has 183 snaps worth of experience over his first two seasons. Virtually all of his nine combined tackles as a pro came after he returned from an ankle injury last year. Brown only got on the field for 19 snaps as a rookie but the organization hopes he can get past the injuries and step up in year three. The closest thing Brown has to competition for the nose tackle job is undrafted rookie Taron Vincent, who is, coincidentally, the only other defender on the current roster to check in at 300 pounds.

The Rams have been short on early picks, but they held a wad of later slots this year, including eleven on the third day. They used a third on tackle Kobie Turner and the last of those third-day picks on Mr. Irrelevent, Desjuan Johnson. Turner has a short resume and is lacking in measurable traits, but the tape says he is much better than the measurables suggest, particularly as a run defender. The rookie will enter training camp with a good shot at landing the starting job for week one. His toughness and determination make Turner a player worth keeping an eye on for those in tackle-required leagues.

Johnson is more of a developmental guy that could eventually challenge for significant playing time. In the short term, however, veterans Marquise Copeland and Larrell Murchison will also be in the mix for playing time. Both are serviceable veteran players with little chance of significant IDP value.

When looking at the Rams roster, it’s hard to see where the pass rush help for Donald will come from. Los Angeles put up a respectable 38 sacks last season, 21 of them recorded by players no longer with the team. The organization is counting on Michael Hoecht to pick up where he left off last year and fill much of that void.

The team’s edge group was so shorthanded down the stretch in 2022 that Hoecht was shifted from tackle to the outside for the final seven games. At times, he looked really good on the field. At other times, not so much. Despite checking in at 310 pounds, Hoecht did a solid job as a stand-up edge defender. He was excellent versus the run and got good pressure on the passer regularly. When it came time to drop in coverage, as the edge guys in this scheme are sometimes asked to do, Hoecht struggled.

On the all-important (to us) stat sheet, Hoecht got it done, racking up 34 combined tackles and four and a half sacks over the final seven games. He trimmed down in the off-season and has worked hard to become more of a versatile asset on passing downs. Hoecht is set to open as a starter and is a player that could be surprisingly productive. He is also a player that relatively few managers are paying any attention to, which makes him an ideal late-round target for your bench.

It is rather rare for a third-round rookie to be anointed as a starting edge defender before the team even opens training camp, but that is how shallow the pool is in Los Angeles right now. Byron Young was the team’s second pick at 77 overall, yet he is being treated as a first-rounder out of necessity.

Young showed well over his two years as a starter for Tennessee, totaling 83 combined tackles and 12.5 sacks in 23 games. At six feet two inches and 250 pounds, he is a bit small for a three-down guy. Young will need more sand in his pants as a point-of-attack run defender and will need to polish his pass-rush game at the pro level, but he has the physical tools and the work ethic to be successful right out of the gate.

Other than a handful of young free agent camp bodies getting a chance to catch on the tail of the roster, the rest of the Rams’ depth chart on the outside consists of fifth-round pick Nick Hampton from Appalachian State and Ochaun Mathis, who was drafted in the sixth out of Nebraska. Both players come with upside and plenty of experience from their college careers. Hampton had 26.5 career sacks over his four years in the Sun Belt Conference, but that was against a much different level of competition.

• DT Aaron Donald – High floor DT1
• DT Bobby Brown III – No impact expected
• DT Marquise Copeland – Solid veteran presence with marginal IDP value at best
• DT Larrell Murchison - No impact
• DT Kobie Turner – Watch list rookie with big potential in the long term.
• DT Desjuan Johnson – Mr. Irrelivent in more ways than one
• Edge Michael Hoecht - Sleeper with DE2 upside
• Edge Byron Young – There will be plenty of opportunity if he can capitalize
• Edge Nick Hampton – Developmental rookie, could have a role in the nickel
• Edge Ochaun Mathis – Developmental rookie

Linebackers

Ernest Jones made his way into the starting lineup in week eight of his rookie season and had a lot of IDP managers thinking he might be last year’s emerging fantasy star. The addition of Wagner put that story on hold as Jones became the Robin to Wagoner’s Batman. A year later, Jones is set to get his shot.

When Jones entered the draft in 2021, NFL analyst Lance Zierlein called him a two-down linebacker with limited speed and below-average athleticism, but Zierlein also pointed out Jones’ high football IQ and toughness. All of this has proven to be true. Jones is tough between the tackles, diagnoses and reacts quickly, and makes few mental mistakes. He lacks elite qualities and has not been much of a big play threat so far, but performed well in his two-down role last season. There are limitations to his game on the field that are likely to keep Jones from ever becoming an elite player by NFL standards, but he has enough talent to be a strong fantasy contributor, especially in the team’s current situation.

Jones finished last season with a respectable 115 combined stops and a pair of takeaways. Not bad numbers for a guy that played 723 snaps. To put it into perspective, at his rate of production per snap, had Jones played 1080 snaps as Wagner did, his totals would have been in the area of 102 solos and 70 assists. He may or may not be a long-term solution as the Rams' lead linebacker, but it would not be a surprise to see that kind of tackle production from Jones this year.

Between them, Wagner and Jones logged 1803 snaps in 2022. The rest of the inside linebackers on the Rams roster combined for 7, with all of those going to Christian Rozeboom. One of the offseason’s biggest headscratchers was the Rams making no significant additions at off-ball linebacker. They signed no one in free agency and failed to use even one of their third-day picks on the position. This might be a result of the multitude of holes that had to be filled, but it might also have had a lot to do with how the organization views Rozeboom, who is the favorite to land the other inside backer job.

Maybe the Rams know something the rest of us need to catch up on. Rozeboom made the team as an undrafted free agent in 2021. To date, he has been on the field for nine defensive snaps in his career, making most of his contributions on special teams. A glance back at his college career is something that might raise eyebrows. Rozeboom was a four-year starter for the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State, where he piled up a school record 475 career tackles and filled his trophy shelf with awards, including the American Football Coaches Association All-America First-Team as a senior in 2019. Rozeboom might even give the Rams a big play threat. In his final season with the Jackrabbits, he contributed three forced fumbles, two recoveries, two interceptions, a sack, a safety, and a touchdown. I’ll call him a deep sleeper for now but it might not be a bad idea to sneak this guy onto your roster before everyone knows who he is.

The Rams' backups at inside linebacker played seven snaps last year. Barring injury, they might play even less in 2023. That would be good for the team since the next man up would likely be Jake Hummel who has never played a snap on defense at the pro level. At least he saw action on special teams as a rookie last year. The rest of the depth chart is filled with undrafted rookies that will compete for the remaining roster spots.

• ILB Ernest Jones – Solid floor with unknown ceiling
• ILB Christian Rozeboom – Deep sleeper in what could be a great situation
• ILB Jake Hummel – Injury sleeper at best
• ILB Deandre Square – No impact
• ILB Kelechi Anyalebechi – No impact

Defensive Backs

The Rams' secondary might be a bigger mystery than their linebackers. In all, four of last year’s week-one starters are gone. The only returning player is David Long Jr./a>, who was the nickel corner for a few games early on. Jordan Fuller is a safe bet to land at one of the safety spots, and Cobie Durant is penciled in as a starting corner. Neither of those spots is really secure, but on paper, there seem to be no significant challengers.

Fuller put up respectable numbers as a strong safety in 2021. He was passed on the depth chart by Nick Scott last summer, but he does have starting experience. With Fuller’s ability to play either safety spot, the team has options. Most projected depth charts have Fuller at strong safety and Russ Yeast at free. While that is a possibility, keep a close eye on rookie seventh-round pick Jason Taylor.

Taylor worked all over the field at Oklahoma State, seeing time at both box and deep safety, as well as slot corner. At 215 pounds, he hits like a linebacker, yet Taylor has the hands of a receiver. He is instinctive and makes big plays, but his average speed and agility could mean he is best suited as a strong safety at the pro level. What makes Taylor particularly intriguing in IDP terms is his production as a senior with the Cowboys. In thirteen games last season, he went 80-19-0 with 6 interceptions and a fumble recovery.

The only thing we can say for certain is that the Rams’ secondary should provide a target-rich environment. I will add that I’m pretty confident it won’t be Yeast that takes advantage of it. I see either Fuller at strong and Yeast at free, or more likely, Fuller at free and Taylor strong. The bottom line here is that someone is going to make a lot of tackles.

When it comes to the corner position, we are going to see a lot of competition in training camp. The key for IDP managers will be identifying who, if anyone, will take over the Jalen Ramsey role. Unfortunately, that decision may not be made by the Rams until they are well into training camp.

There is no star power for the Rams to draw on this year. Durant was a fourth-round pick in 2022 and made his way into the starting lineup late in the season. Many expect that to mean he will open as a starter this year. That is certainly possible but is far from a sure thing. Robert Rochell is by far the most experienced of the Rams corners. Many have him penciled in as the other starter, but I expect a full-blown open competition that will include Derion Kendrick, as well as rookie Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, and possibly a couple of other rookie free-agent additions.

The bottom line when it comes to the Los Angeles secondary is that there will be a boatload of opportunity, so we can guess or just wait until after week one and pick up the right one since none of these guys are being drafted.

• FS Jordan Fuller – Possible DB3 if he lands at strong safety
• SS Jason Taylor II – Deep sleeper with a low floor but a high ceiling if he lands the right role
• FS Russ Yeast – Marginal impact expected
• FS Quentin Lake – No impact expected
• CB Cobie Durant – CB2 potential
• CB Robert Rochell – Marginal fantasy value at best
• CB Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson – Rookie corner rule could be in play
• CB Derion Kendrick – Deep sleeper at best

That does it for the West. We will take a look at the AFC North next, starting with the Bengals.

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