Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Denver | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | San Francisco

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today’s NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

For the second consecutive season, the 49ers played championship-caliber defense. Last year’s unit topped the league in the statistic that is most important to NFL success, allowing the fewest points in the league. Most of their other statistics were good as well, though there were some oddities. San Francisco tied Pittsburgh for the most interceptions with 20, yet they ended up in the middle of the pack in total takeaways because they were last with three fumble recoveries. The run defense was stellar, allowing the second-fewest yards and the lowest yards per carry. Meanwhile, passing yards was one of the few categories where they ranked in the bottom half of the league, and that was despite putting up 44 sacks. As one might expect, there were not a lot of personnel changes in the off-season, but the few they made could make them even better.

Defensive Linemen

San Francisco boasts the 2022 sack king in Nick Bosa, who piled up 18. The 2019 second-overall pick is more than just a pass rusher, though. Bose is just as good against the run and was one of five edge defenders to exceed 40 solo tackles last year. At age 25, he is among the NFL's elite three-down edge defenders and is set to be a cornerstone of the 49ers' defense for the next several years.

On the fantasy side of things, Bosa rests firmly on the elite, first tier of defenders across all positions. His average of twelve points per game was second only to Maxx Crosby among defensive linemen, and that was without another great pass rusher in the mix to keep offenses honest in their blocking schemes. With the addition of Javon Hargrave in free agency and the promotion of last year’s second-round pick, Drake Jackson, to the starting lineup, Bosa should have plenty of help in 2023.

Jackson’s role was limited as a rookie, but he gave the organization plenty of reason for optimism. Before being inactive for some games late in the season, Jackson managed 14 combined tackles with 3 sacks, a pick, and 6 others batted passes on 315 snaps. Coach Shanahan was candid when asked about Jackson’s status at the end of the year, pointing to conditioning and saying that the season got too long and he wore down. Jackson is not the first player to hit the rookie wall, and he won’t be the last. He has worked diligently over the off-season to ensure there will be no repeat of the problem.

Actions speak louder than words, so here are some actions that make me think Jackson could break out in year two. He has hit the conditioning and weight room hard. Jackson was undersized at 254 pounds entering his rookie campaign. Both he and the organization realized he needed to get bigger and stronger, especially considering he played well at around 270 while at USC. He is now up to about 273. Then there are the actions of the organization that suggest a great deal of confidence in the second-year pro. Samson Ebukam and Charles Omenihu played 1341 snaps between them last season and were tied for the second most sacks on the team with four and a half each. Both of those players are gone, opening a clear path to the starting job.

Kerry Hyder and former Raiders first-round pick Clelin Ferrell should land the backup roles. Hyders is a proven dependable veteran presence that can get the job done when called upon. He has starting experience from his time in Detroit, as well as a handful of games with San Francisco, and has put up eight sacks in two of his six years as a pro. Ferrell is a reclamation project after being a colossal bust for the Raiders. His 58 tackles, 42 assists, and nine sacks over four seasons are simply not acceptable numbers for a guy drafted fourth overall. The team hopes a change of scenery will rekindle the flame that made him such a high pick.

The 49ers have been without a difference-maker at the tackle position since they let DeForest Buckner get away after the 2019 season. Javon Kinlaw was supposed to be that guy, but injuries derailed his career early. He has never gotten back on track. With the signing of Hargrave, the problem is solved.

Four years in the Steelers 3-4 saw Hargrave play well and become productive. Between the 2018 and 2019 seasons, he averaged 33-20-5. Then came the move to Philadelphia, where he lined up as the three-technique tackle in a 4-3. Over the last two seasons, Hargrave has combined for 63 tackles, 59 assists, 19 sacks, and four turnovers, including career highs in solo tackles with 37, sacks with 11, and turnovers with 3 in 2022. There is always some risk when a player changes teams after a big year, but Hargrave should be a great fit in San Francisco’s aggressive one-gap approach. He finished seventh among interior linemen last season and is a good bet to make another appearance in the top ten this year.

Arik Armstead rounds out the starting lineup. The former first-round pick (2015) is a quick and athletic 290 pounds. He is solid versus the run and has plenty of wiggle to be a considerable contributor as an inside pass rusher. Between 2018 and 2021, Armstead averaged 32-22-6, with his best production coming in 2019 at 33-22-10 and 3 turnovers. The numbers would be strong for a defensive tackle, but keep in mind that Armstead worked mostly at defensive end before shifting inside in Week 7 of the 2021 season. In thirteen games as a tackle, he is 28-27-5. With Bosa and Hargrave getting all the attention, I like Armstead’s chances of being a quality option for those in tackle-required formats.

In Kevin Givins, T.Y. McGill, and Marlon Davidson, the 49ers have good veteran depth on the inside. Kinlaw remains in the mix as well and has the extra motivation of being in the final year of his rookie contract.

• DE Nick Bosa – Elite tier DL1
• DE Drake Jackson – High upside sleeper
• DE Kerry Hyder Jr – Has some upside if he gets on the field enough
• DE Clelin Ferrell – No grand expectations
• DE Austin Bryant – No impact
• DE Robert Beal Jr. – Rookie project
• DT Arik Armstead – Solid DT2 with some upside
• DT Javon Hargrave – Potential elite tier DT1 or solid DL2 in formats that don’t break out the positions
• DT Javon Kinlaw – No impact
• DT Kevin Givens – No impact
• DT Marlon Davidson – No impact

Linebackers

There is no guesswork when it comes to the San Francisco linebackers. Fred Warner is going to be the man in the middle, and Dre Greenlaw will work on the weak side. What is most important to know here is that San Francisco is among a shrinking number of teams that leave both starting linebackers on the field in virtually all sub-package situations.

Warner was a third-round steal in 2018 and quickly became one of the league's best linebackers. There is no weakness to his game. He has sideline-to-sideline range and a knack for making his way through traffic. Warner can stack and shed blockers with the best, rarely misses a tackle, and is one of the game’s better coverage linebackers.

In fantasy terms, Warner falls short of the elite tier but is exceptionally consistent both week-to-week and year-to-year. In 2022, he reached double-digit points in thirteen games, falling below eight once. He has at least 79 solo stops and no fewer than 118 combined tackles in each of his five seasons as a pro, with highs of 90 and 138. Warner can even be counted on for a handful of big plays every year. His best season was 2019, when he finished seventh among linebackers, his lowest ranking of 17 came as a rookie in 2018, and he was 15th last year. Warner’s point totals place him as a priority LB2, but his level of dependability makes him a low LB1 value.

Warner is the San Francisco linebacker that most fans and IDP managers identify with, but Greenlaw put up slightly better overall numbers last season. More importantly, he did it in two fewer games. From a physical perspective, Greenlaw is a more compact version of Warner. He is a bit short at 6-foot-0 but is thick at 230 pounds. The low-man usually wins in football, and Greenlaw’s low center of gravity makes him hard to block and even harder to knock off his feet. He is a rangy, tough, hard-hitting linebacker that is physical versus the run and has good cover skills.

Greenlaw played a lot and looked good in his first two years (2019 and 2020), but his box score production was mediocre. In 2020, that was largely because he battled injuries and missed some time. He spent most of 2021 with the trainers, with nearly all of his 247 total snaps coming late in the season. In 2022, Greenlaw broke out both on the field and in box scores. On 176 fewer snaps, he outproduced Warner by about eight points overall but the telltale number of 1.98 points per game on average.

Greenlaw ranked seventh overall among linebackers at 12.9 points per game last year. If you think you can get by with it, let your rival take Warner among the first twelve backers off the board. Wait for a round or two, then slip in and grab Greenlaw as your second starter and bask in the value.

One component the 49ers will be without in 2022 is a proven safety net behind the starters. Azeez Al-Shaair stepped in for Greenlaw for most of the 2021 season. He played so well that there was some speculation last off-season that Al-Shaair might have won the job. It didn’t work out that way, but he did parlay the opportunity into a nice free-agent payday and a starting job for the Titans.

With Greenlaw’s history of missing a game now and then, San Francisco will have to count on either Oren Burks, Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, or one of the young free agents they filled out the training camp roster with. Burks is penciled in as the starting strong-side linebacker, which makes him the favorite to step in if someone is needed. The 49ers don’t put three linebackers on the field very often.

• MLB Fred Warner – High-end LB2
• WLB Dre Greenlaw – Sneaky LB1
• SLB Oren Burks – Potential injury replacement with limited upside
• SLB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles – Deep injury sleeper at best
• WLB Curtis Robinson – Developmental rookie

Defensive Backs

The San Francisco pass defense gave up a lot of completions and yards last year. On the other hand, they were highly opportunistic and kept opponents out of the end zone. Completed passes equal tackle opportunities, and an opportunistic secondary means turnovers. Those two things lead to IDP value.

For most of the last decade or more, the 49ers’ secondary was a black hole for IDP purposes. That was not the case in 2022. Because they gave us so little for so long, some IDP managers, myself included, hesitated to trust our eyes or the numbers when Talanoa Hufanga came out of the gate on fire last year. When he was the No. 5 defensive back going into Week 6, no one doubted him any longer.

For good reason, Hufanga draws a lot of comparisons to the great Troy Polamalu. We heard a lot of talk about that from booth commentators and analysts, talking about how he played the game on the field. Those comparisons carry over to the IDP game as well.

Like Polamalu, Hufanga is a big play safety that makes a lot of game-changing, sometimes jaw-dropping plays. In his first year as a starter, Hufanga broke up nine passes, intercepted four, forced a pair of fumbles, got to the quarterback twice, and returned a pick for a score. Also, in typical Polamalu fashion, Hufanga was inconsistent and a little light in the tackle columns.

At 66 solo and 31 assists, Hufanga’s overall tackle numbers were respectable in 2022. Because he made so many splash plays, his weekly point totals slipped below eight just four times, but putting up three or fewer solo stops in eight games is enough to give managers gray hair. After five games, Tufanga was the fifth-ranked defensive back. By the end of the season, his ranking had leveled out to 16th in average points per game, at eleven.

A lot of managers will consider Tufanga a top-10 DB1. I would not argue with that assessment, particularly in league formats leaning toward big play value. I value him as more of a high-upside DB2 in the DB12 to DB18 range. Either way, having the guy on your roster is going to help you win games on most weeks.

Tashaun Gipson led the team with five interceptions from the free safety position, but there is a reason San Francisco was his fifth team in ten seasons. Gipson is a solid veteran player that will hold up his end of the deal, but he is not a special talent. He was able to capitalize on the aggressive scheme last year and make a lot of plays, but he averaged just over two interceptions per season over the previous seven. All IDP managers need to know about Gipson is that he has not reached 50 solo or 65 combined tackles in a season since 2013.

San Fransico had no picks in the first two rounds this year. Their first selection came late in the third when they took a safety, Ji’Ayir Brown, at 87th overall. Brown was, arguably, the best safety in this draft class. He is a versatile defensive back that can play in the box, as a single deep, or over the slot with equal success. A less-than-stellar showing at the combine might have knocked him down a few slots in the draft, but on film, Brown is a feisty run defender, an instinctive pass defender, and an energy source for those around him.

Most seem to expect Brown to be next in line at free safety behind Gipson. I agree that is a strong possibility, but I need to see it before putting an IDP value on the young man. Keep in mind that Hufanga is capable of playing either safety also, and if speed really is an issue for Brown, he may be better suited for the strong safety role. In the short term, I expect Brown to get his feet wet as the slot defender, possibly in a timeshare with free-agent corner Isaiah Oliver.

Myles Hartsfield and George Odom provide good veteran depth. Hartsfield made a good showing over six games as the Panthers' starting strong safety last season. He displayed some versatility by making a start or two at free safety as well. Odom made a few starts over his four years with the Colts before landing with San Francisco last year. Neither of these guys is likely to be a long-term NFL starter, but both are capable of holding down the fort for a while.

A high completion percentage means a lot of tackles after the catch. Thus, starters Chavarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir both put up at least 79 combined tackles. Ward added eleven passes defended and three turnovers to rank eleventh at the corner position last year. It was the first top-12 finish of his career and was also Ward’s first season with the 49ers, so maybe this is his new norm.

Lenoir finished at 54-25-1 with an interception and 4 passes defended. Those numbers added up to a rank of 27th among corners, but they don’t consider that he missed two and a half games. Lenoir played sparingly as a fifth-round pick in 2021, making his first start in Week 4 last year. He was up and down for a while before hitting the jets down the stretch. Over the final four games, he averaged 6-2 with a pick and four passes defended while reaching double-digit fantasy points in five of the last six games.

San Francisco added former Falcons starter Isaiah Oliver in free agency. After a couple of seasons in the lineup, Oliver missed much of the 2021 season and fell out of grace with the team in 2022. He is a good addition, providing depth with the potential to push for a bigger role. At this point, I expect he will see some work in the slot. That could change once the pads go on, though.

Samuel Womack, Ambry Thomas, and rookie project Darrell Luter Jr. will compete to fill out the rest of the pecking order for snaps in the secondary.

• SS Talanoa Hufanga – Priority DB2 with high upside
• FS Tashaun Gipson – Marginal impact at best
• FS Ji’Ayir Brown – Somewhat unknown commodity, worth keeping tabs on
• FS Myles Hartsfield – No impact expected
• SS George Odum – No impact
• CB Charvarius Ward – Target as a CB2 with low CB1 upside
• CB Deommodore Lenoir – Short track record but room for optimism
• CB Isaiah Oliver – No impact expected
• CB Samuel Womack III – No impact
• CB Ambry Thomas – No impact
• CB Darrell Luter Jr. - Developmental rookie

That does it for this offering. Next up is the Seattle Seahawks.

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