Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 13: Green Bay Packers

John Norton's Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 13: Green Bay Packers John Norton Published 07/11/2023

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Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Baltimore | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Green Bay | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | San Francisco | Seattle

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

  • Tackles = 1.5
  • Assists = .75
  • Sacks = 4
  • Forced fumbles = 3
  • Fumble recoveries = 3
  • Interceptions = 4
  • Passes defended = 1.5
  • Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

The Packers managed the eighth most takeaways in 2022, but that is about the only positive for this defense. They gave up the sixth-fewest passing yards, but that number is skewed because they faced the fewest passing attempts in the league. At seven yards per attempt, they were tied at 25th, the 22 passing scores ranked in the bottom half of the league, and their 34 sacks had them tied at 27. The run defense was no better. At five yards per carry, the Packers ranked 28th; they were 26th in rush yards and 24th in rushing scores. The big shock about all this is how little the team did to address it. The only significant free agent addition was at safety and is not necessarily an improvement. They used first, fourth, and sixth-round picks on defensive linemen/pass rushers and a pair of sevens on defensive backs. The only rookie likely to make any impact is Lukas Van Ness, and he will be a third wheel unless Rashan Gary is not ready to return from his injury.

Defensive Linemen

There were not many additions to the defense, but there were some subtractions that will put different faces in the lineup. Two of last year’s defensive line starters, Dean Lowrey and Jarran Reed were not invited back. That makes room for last year’s first-round pick, Devonte Wyatt, and most likely, third-year man T.J. Slaton to take over. How much difference they will make is hard to say, but it’s hard to fathom it being any worse.

The Packers have been a 3-4 team for well over a decade. Despite using a large amount of early-round draft capital and plenty of free-agent money on the position over the years, Green Bay has never had an Aaron Donald or Calais Campbell-type player on their defensive line. Much of this can be attributed to the two-gap approach they usually employ, where the responsibility of the linemen is to occupy space and keep blockers off the second-level defenders. Even though it would allow them to make more plays, linemen are generally asked not to penetrate because it could open lanes for both running backs and scrambling passers.

Regardless of the cause, the important point is that Kenny Clark is the only Green Bay interior lineman to average six or more points per game in the last several years, and he barely did it at 6.3 last season. from 2017 through 2019, Clark put up good numbers for a tackle. Averaging roughly 58 combined stops and 6 sacks. He was a strong DT2 over that span. In 2020 and 2021, his numbers slid out of the top 24, rendering Clark no better than depth in leagues starting two. Last year’s rebound is cause for optimism, but it is still anyone’s guess if he will be a solid DL2 or a decent DT3. Target him as the latter.

Rashan Gary and Preston Smith are the starters at the edge position. Smith’s best season as a pro came in 2019, his first year with the Packers. That season he totaled 55 combined tackles, which was a career-high at the time, and 12 sacks, which is still his career-best. In 2020 and 2021, Smith’s numbers dropped significantly. He bounced back in 2022 with 59 tackles and 8.5 sacks so there is hope for IDP-relevant production, but it is far from a sure thing.

Gary was a first-round pick of the Packers in 2019, but so far, the team has seen a weak return on that investment. He did little over his first two years in the league, recording just seven sacks. Gary had somewhat of a breakout in year three, going 28-18-9.5. in 2021. He was on pace for similar or slightly better numbers last season when a knee injury ended his season in week nine. The Packers hope he will be ready for the regular season, but his availability is in doubt as we approach training camp. It sounds like Gary is a strong candidate to open the season on the PUP. At best, he will be eased in and not near 100% early in the season.

It’s hard to tell if the selection of Lukas Van Ness was due to Gary’s injury or the less-than-stellar production from both he and Smith over the last three seasons. Either way, Van Ness is expected to provide immediate help. He is big at six feet five and 272 pounds and has the frame to add more muscle. Van Ness earned the nickname Hercules from his Iowa teammates for his power and ability to throw offensive tackle at their quarterbacks with his bull rush. Despite impressing those around him, Van Ness was not very productive statistically. In two seasons with the Hawkeyes (26 games), Van Ness recorded 70 total tackles and 13 sacks. He will need to become more of a technician and add some pass-rush moves and counters to his arsenal, but Van Ness has the potential to be special.

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Linebackers

There are three things we know for certain about the Packers’ inside linebacker position. Number one, It has been a goldmine for IDP production, turning out top-twelve linebackers regularly since 2017. Number two, they have kept only one of them on the field full-time as far back as memory goes. And three, De'Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker are going to be the starters. We could probably throw in a fourth thing, that De'Vondre Campbell will be the more productive of the two, but I’m not 100% sure that will be the case.

Campbell was that guy in 2021. After being rescued from the Cardinals that spring, he went on to go 101-44-2 with 5 turnovers and 4 pass breakups in his first year with the Packers. That production made him number four among linebackers. Campbell was on the field for 1042 of a possible 1102 plays that season, while the team’s other starting inside backer, Krys Barnes, saw action on 565.

As those numbers suggest, Campbell is a very capable three-down linebacker. He is a physical tackler, gets off blocks and navigates traffic well, and is one of the league's better coverage guys at the position. After missing four-plus games in 2022, Campbell is a candidate for a comeback year. The only reason I hesitate to call him an LB1 is the presence of Walker, who is an excellent player in his own right.

In many ways, Walker is reminiscent of a young Blake Martinez. Walker is a big linebacker by today’s standards, checking in at six foot four and 240 pounds. He is physical, disciplined, consistent as a tackler, and good enough in coverage to stay on the field in nickel sub-packages. The only knock on Walker coming out of Georgia was a glaring lack of splash play production. He proved those concerns to be unwarranted by forcing three fumbles, recovering one, posting a sack and a half, and breaking up 7 passes as a rookie.

When the Packers drafted Walker in the first round last year, IDP managers crossed their fingers in the hope that the coaching staff would change things up and play both guys nearly full-time. That is not how it worked out, at least not at the beginning. Instead, Campbell played every down until he was injured in week eight, while Walker was on the field for between 73% and 86% of the snaps until week nine. When Campbell returned in week thirteen, however, both players worked on at least 96% of the plays in each of the next three games. Walker was back below 75% for the final two outings, muddying the water again.

So here we are once again, entering a new season without knowing for sure how the team will play their cards. What I expect to see is Campbell remaining in the lead role and playing every snap on most weeks. I will not be at all surprised if both players are on the field for 95% of the action, and I am confident Walker will consistently see 85% or more of the playing time.

What that means to the IDP community is that Green Bay probably won’t give us a top-twelve linebacker this year. Not because neither guy is capable but because both of them are, and the competition will take a toll on their numbers. When Campbell had his big year, he was the clear centerpiece of the defense. That load is now shared.

To get a better handle on expectations, we can look at last year’s numbers. On 808 snaps, Walker managed 74-49-1.5 with 4 turnovers and 7 passes defended, for an average of 10.6 points per game and a rank of 30 among linebackers. Because of his injury, Campbell logged 694 snaps with a mark of 58-39-0, 2 picks, 3 pass breakups, and a score for an average of 11.3 points per game, which ranked 22 at the position. With Walker likely to see an uptick in snaps, I think we are looking at a pair of good LB2s with a little upside from week to week. I see a situation where one guy has better numbers one week, and the other scores more points the next.

An injury to either starter would boost the other well up the board and make 2021 sixth-round pick Isaiah McDuffie the second starter. He and Krys Barnes shared that role while Campbell was out last year. Beyond McDuffie, the Packers have special teams ace Eric Wilson and a collection of undrafted young guys fighting for a spot on the roster.

Defensive Backs

On paper, the Green Bay secondary should have been much better than the number portrayed last season. They have a trio of quality corners in former first-round picks Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes on the outside and Rasul Douglas in the slot. Adrian Amos was a mainstay at strong safety, and Darnell Savage has been in the lineup at free safety since being picked at 21 overall in 2019. The organization must agree since the only new starter is Jonathan Owens, who will replace Amos.

The 2022 Packers had three defensive backs that averaged eight or more points per game. The most productive of them was Douglas. He opened the season as the nickel corner but shifted outside when Alexander missed a couple of games early. Douglas finished the season at that position after Stokes was lost for the year in week nine. When all the numbers were in, the 70 solo tackles by Douglas were the second most by a corner. With five takeaways, a sack, and twelve passes defended, he was the third-highest-scoring fantasy option at the position as well.

The 85 combined tackles he posted was by far the most in any of his six years as a pro, but the top-ten finish was not the first of his career. Douglas’s story is a great one. He put together a strong run with the Eagles in the second half of 2018, piling up 48 solo tackles and a pair of picks over the final seven games. He might have been a significant IDP factor for his entire three seasons there if not for injuries. Douglas tallied 62 combined stops and nine pass breakups in 14 games with the Panthers in 2020 before being picked off waivers by Green Bay in week five of 2021. After being unemployed for the first five games that year, he exploded for 57 tackles, 6 turnovers (5 picks), 13 pass breakups, and a pair of scores to finish sixth among corners.

Douglas will go back to the nickel role to start this season. The Packers use a lot of nickel, so if everyone remains healthy, he is looking at about 75-80% of the snaps. That might not be enough opportunity to produce a top-ten finish. With the corner position being so unpredictable from year to year, Douglas is worth the risk as one of the first dozen corners off the board. At worst, you will get a good second starter.

Jaire Alexander has some IDP value as well, though his upside is lower, and he is less consistent than Douglas. Alexander’s tackle numbers have been marginal since his second season (see the rookie corner rule), with much of his value reliant on big plays. He put up four or more solo stops in six of fourteen games last year, with two or fewer tackles in an equal number. If he had consistently recorded five picks per season as he did last year, Alexander would be a roll the dice, second starter for us. The reality is that he had five picks over the previous four seasons combined.

Darnell Savage does a fine job as the team’s deep safety, but the responsibilities of his position all but negate any chance of consistent IDP value. Instead, that value/potential goes to the strong safety position. Adrian Amos put up solid production from the position, totaling at least 83 combined stops and a sprinkling of splash plays in each of his four seasons with the team. It is unclear why the organization elected to part ways with the four-year starter. When they realize what they have in his projected replacement, Jonathan Owens, they might wish they hadn’t.

Owens put up big numbers with the Texans last season; his 86 solo tackles were second only to teammate Jalen Pitre among safeties. While that was great for IDP managers, big tackle numbers don’t necessarily mean quality play on the field. There is a reason Owens was invisible for the first four years of his career. There is a reason he was benched for the second half of the week eight game, and after playing every snap before that benching, there is a reason he was limited to about 77% participation over the rest of the season. It is safe to say that is same reason is why he was not offered a contract to return.

Owens might be just fine, and all of that might simply be a strange path to great things. There is a much greater chance that his falling out of grace with a team in desperate need to help on defense is directly related to his play on the field. It is also worth pointing out that on 971 snaps, his only contribution in the big play columns was a lone sack.

Owens is at the top of most projected depth charts for the Packers, but once camp opens, we should keep an eye on former Arizona and San Francisco backups Johnathan Ford and Tarvarius Moore or maybe even rookie Anthony Johnson Jr.

Johnson is an interesting prospect. He carried as high as a fifth-round grade with some scouts but was still on the board when Green Bay picked late in the seventh. Johnson was a four-year starter at Iowa State but started his college career as a corner. Normally, when corners convert to safety, they fit better in the free safety role. That is not the case with Johnson. This is a guy with good athletic traits and a nasty streak when it comes to being physical. So much so that he is almost too aggressive, causing him to miss some tackles while going for the kill shot. That can be fixed with good coaching. He was not particularly productive on the stat sheet while with the Cyclones but is tough and versatile, which is a great combination for what the Packers like in a strong safety.

That’s a wrap for Part 13. The Vikings are next.

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