Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Baltimore | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | San Francisco | Seattle

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

The Ravens’ defense performed well in 2022. They were one of three teams to allow fewer than four yards per carry on the ground, and the eleven rushing scores they allowed ranked eighth. They gave a lot of completions and yards through the air but shut teams down when they needed to, allowing the fifth-fewest points through via the pass. Baltimore got after the quarterback, with their 48 sacks ranking fifth, and they were fourth in overall points allowed. The only thing this unit did not do well was take the ball away. With nine interceptions and six fumble recoveries, only the Jets and Jaguars took it away less. After a performance like that, there is no need to make many changes, and the Ravens did not. At least not when it comes to adding players. The biggest moves they made were not bringing back aging veterans Calais Campbell, Justin Houston, and Jason Pierre-Paul. Consider that addition by subtraction, if you will, but don’t overlook the fact that those three players accounted for 18 of the team’s sacks.

Defensive Linemen

The Ravens predominantly run a two-gap 3-4, asking their interior linemen to control the line of scrimmage by occupying space and blockers as opposed to penetrating and disrupting. That approach, and the fact that they rotate several guys to keep everyone fresh all but kills any chance of useful production from the inside guys. The makeup of Baltimore’s roster suits this approach but is generally not going to benefit IDP managers very much. Campbell was the only interior lineman to reach six fantasy points per game in 2022, and he is now wearing a Falcons uniform.

Justin Madubuike and Broderick Washington are set to be the starting tackles, Both are powerful big men with the ability to hold ground against double teams and blow up blockers at the point of attack versus the run. Madubuike is the closest thing to IDP relevant that this group has to offer. The 2020 third-round pick did very little statistically over his first two seasons. Last year he managed 42 combined stops with 5.5 sacks and 3 swatted passes. Not big numbers by any stretch, but enough to make him the number 28 tackle. With few leagues starting more than two interior linemen, that makes Madubuike an option as depth. Unfortunately, there is not much upside, and with many managers not even rostering backups at tackle, he is borderline roster worthy for most of us. Washington put up slightly better tackle totals in 2022 but lacks the juice to make an impact as a pass rusher. He was drafted two rounds later than Madubuike in 2020 and has two career sacks.

Veterans Brent Urban and Angelo Blackson provide the depth at tackle. Both are good matches for the scheme and responsibilities so the team could absorb an injury or two without missing a beat.

Michael Pierce was the starting nose tackle heading into last year, but he lasted just three games before being lost for the season. Then rookie third-round pick, Travis Jones, took over and finished the season as the starter. With Pierce healthy, it is unclear who will get the title of starter, but that is irrelevant anyway, as they are likely to share the load.

Speaking of sharing the load, the Baltimore defense faced 1151 plays in 2022. No Ravens interior lineman was on the field for more than 684 of them. Even if the scheme allowed them to be more aggressive, the lack of snaps would make it tough to be statistically productive.

Looking at the Ravens' pass rushers, it is hard to see them reaching 48 sacks again in 2023. They have some young guys with potential but are way short on proven players. Odafe Oweh led the team’s edge defenders with just 666 snaps in 2022. This was not a matter of missing time due to injury but rather a result of the multi-player rotation the Ravens use. In two seasons, Oweh has participated in 1249 plays and produced eight sacks. Hopefully, moving on from some of the veterans will allow more snaps for the young guns on the roster.

Tyus Bowser is the veteran of the group now. The 2017 second-round pick missed ten games last year, but he played a full slate in 2021. That season he put up respectable totals of 33-26-7 with a pair of forced fumbles. Those numbers also represent the best production of his career to date, which is not a good sign for a guy that is supposed to be the team’s best pass rusher.

The organization has high hopes for last year’s second-round pick, David Ojabo, but he has to get on the field first. He is a highly talented player who posted eleven sacks in thirteen games as a junior at Michigan in 2021. The problem is, those thirteen games are all we have to go on for his evaluation. Ojabo missed all but three games in 2020 with an ankle injury, then tore his Achilles’ at the Wolverines pro day ahead of last year’s draft. Considering the moves Baltimore has not made, they must believe in the young man and feel good about where he is with the injury, but he remains unproven until he is not.

In the short term, fourth-round rookie, Tavius Robinson, is an insurance policy that will see a few snaps every game. In the long term, the team hopes he will be a highly productive addition to the rotation. Robinson needs to grow into his frame a little to be a better run defender but he has the tools to be a major contributor. He already has an arsenal of pass-rush moves and, like an old veteran, uses them to set up blockers.

• Edge Tyus Bowser – Potential depth with limited upside
• Edge Odafe Oweh – High upside youngster, talented but unproven
• Edge David Ojabo – Great expectations based on a short resume
• Edge Tavius Robinson – Talented pass rusher that needs to mature physically
• DT Justin Madubuike – Depth in twelve-team leagues starting two tackles
• DT Brent Urban – No impact
• DT Broderick Washington – Marginal value at best
• DT Angelo Blackson – No impact
• NT Michael Pierce – No impact
• NT Travis Jones – No impact

Linebackers

There will never be another Ray Lewis, so when Baltimore drafted Patrick Queen in the first round in 2020, most of us envisioned him as the next C.J. Mosley. Queen pretty much looked the part as a rookie. His tackle totals were a little light at 68 solo and 40 assists, but he was a playmaker with three sacks, five takeaways, and a score. Because he was a rookie, no one read much into the fact that he only played about 81% of the snaps.

Expectations were high for Queen heading into his second season. Surely he would step up and play virtually full time and build on his rookie numbers, right? Umm NO! What we got instead was the same solo tackle total with less of everything else, including playing time which slid to about a 76% share. In year three, Queen finally got the boost in playing time. He was on the field for 94% of the action in 2022, and it was reflected in his numbers. At 78-38-5 with 5 turnovers and 6 pass breakups, Queen found his way into the top 20 for the second time. That part of the story looks good for him. It’s the rest of the story that is a concern.

It was bad enough when the team traded for Roquan Smith in the middle of last season. It got worse when they followed it up by drafting arguably the best linebacker prospect in this year’s rookie class, Trenton Simpson. Now, as we are closing in on the start of training camp, we are left unsure of Queen’s status. Some speculate he will be traded or released before the season. Others believe he will play out the final year of his contract and sign elsewhere in the offseason, which seems like the logical expectation to me. The only thing we know for sure is that with Smith on the roster, Queen is going to be no better than second fiddle, even though the coaching staff kept them on the field together for the final nine games in 2022. So what does that mean for Queen’s IDP prospects in 2023? I’ll direct everyone to the numbers to answer that question. Queen exceeded four solo tackles in a game twice after the addition of Smith last year, with neither of those games among the final five.

Even with his season split between two teams, Smith managed 103 solo tackles, 68 assists, 4 sacks, 3 interceptions, 6 passes defended, and a ranking of second among linebackers last year. In five seasons as a pro, he has four top-12 finishes, including three consecutive in the top three. Smith is an elite player from both an NFL and fantasy perspective, with no weakness to his game. He deserves strong consideration as one of the first two or three defenders off the board in virtually any IDP format.

So where does all of this leave Simpson? With the growing complexity of today’s defenses, we are seeing more and more linebackers redshirt as rookies, playing a limited role or in some cases, not at all in their first seasons (Nakobe Dean). I expect to see Queen remain with the Ravens until/unless someone suffers an injury and trades for him. I also expect Simpson to get some playing time at Queen’s expense, with that time possibly growing as the season advances. Barring an injury to Smith or Queen, I do not expect Simpson to be cast into a full-time role this year.

When it comes to his NFL career, Simpson is in a great place. He has a clear path to the starting job in year two and is one of the best in the game to learn from in the process. When it comes to long-term IDP value, Simpson couldn’t have ended up in a worse place. Smith is under contract through the 2027 season, meaning Simpson will remain in his shadow for nearly his entire rookie contract. There is plenty of history proving that teams can support two productive linebackers but in virtually every one of those instances, the two players would be more productive on their own.

• ILB Roquan Smith – Elite tier LB1
• ILB Patrick Queen – LB3 ceiling unless he ends up with a different team
• ILB Trenton Simpson – Talented dynasty prospect with a low LB2 or LB3 ceiling, while in Smith’s shadow
• ILB Malik Harrison – No impact

Defensive Backs

Baltimore’s secondary will have a different look in 2023. With last year’s first-round pick Kyle Hamilton waiting in the wings at safety, the loss of Chuck Clark will not be felt, but the loss of corner Marcus Peters probably will. That said, Peters remains a free agent, so maybe he will find his way back into the fold once he has avoided training camp.

Even without Peters, the Ravens’ secondary is a talented group. In Hamilton and Marcus Williams, they have an excellent tandem of interchangeable safeties that give defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald a lot of options. Both players can cover as well as any at the position. Both are playmakers, and both are strong in run support when called upon.

The skill sets are similar between Hamilton and Williams, but we should see Hamilton get more work close to the line, which translated to more tackle opportunities. Both of these guys are big, but at 221 pounds, Hamilton is like a safety trapped in the body of a linebacker. Ahead of last year’s draft, NFL analyst Lance Zierlein compared him to former Seahawks great Kam Chancellor. When it comes to size, toughness, and demeanor, that is an excellent comparison. The difference is that Hamilton offers more versatility. He is faster, better in coverage, and more of a ballhawk. There will be a lot of competition for tackles on this defense. That could hold Hamilton down a little, but he should be able to make up for it in the big play columns. I like him as a strong DB2 with top-ten upside.

When it comes to scouting for IDP value, the Ravens’ secondary is a great example of why managers can not simply look at last year’s overall numbers. In most cases, we have to know the stories that lie between them. A glance at last year’s totals will have lazy managers clamoring to land Williams. After all, he did average over 12.2 points per game, while Hamilton averaged about half of that. Managers that don’t do their homework will not know that over 45% of Williams’ production came in the first two games or that Hamilton was the third wheel at safety as a rookie. Williams could have spotty value but is not likely to be someone we can trust as an every-week play.

On the corners, Marlon Humphrey is an excellent cover man with a great combination of size, speed, and ball-hawking skills. He usually puts up good tackle totals for a corner supplementing those numbers with a large helping of big plays. Last season Humphrey accounted for six turnovers and three sacks to go with his 72 combined tackles, adding up to a top-ten finish among corners. Throw out an injury-shortened 2021, and Humphrey has three consecutive seasons with at least 64 total tackles and at least eight splash plays. In 2020 he blew up for 70 tackles, 12 assists, 11 passes defended, a whopping 8 forced fumbles, a pick, and two sacks. His average of 11.5 points per game was second among corners that season. Not having Peters on the other side could mean a little less opportunity, but Humphrey should still maintain CB1 status.

At the other corner spot, the team has a collection of young players that were drafted between the second and fourth rounds to compete for the job. The list includes recent free agent addition Rock Ya-Sin, second-year players Brandon Stephens and Damarion Williams, former Raiders starter Travon Mullen, and Daryl Wormley, who has plenty of starting experience in the league. Granted, none of those guys are Marcus Peters, but some of them have already been quality NFL starters, while others have the talent to be. How that translates to the box score is anyone’s guess at this stage, but the Ravens will be just fine.

• SS Kyle Hamilton – Priority DB2 with top-ten upside
• FS Marcus Williams – Likely no better than bye week depth
• SS Geno Stone – No impact expected
• CB Marlon Humphrey – Quality CB1 with top-five potential
• CB Rock Ya-Sin – No impact expected
• CB Trayvon Mullen – Potential CB2 if he wins the job
• CB Brandon Stephens – Likely to see time as the nickel corner
• CB Jalyn Armour-Davis – No impact expected
• CB Damarion Williams – Should be in the thick of the competition for the starting job
• CB Kyu Blu Kelly – Developmental rookie

That’s a wrap for Part 12. Coming up next, the NFC North

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