Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 9: Cincinnati Bengals

Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Denver | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | San Francisco | Seattle

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

The Cincinnati offense gets all the attention and accolades, but their defense can get it done as well. The Bengals finished last season ranked fifth against the run, and their 58.9 % completion rate against the pass was the best in the league. Cincinnati surrendered the third-fewest points, and their 24 takeaways placed them in the top third of the league. The only important defensive statistic they fell short in was sacks, where they slid from 42 in 2021 to just 30 in 2022. With the personnel they have and the addition of first-round pick Myles Murphy, we can expect those numbers to rebound in 2023.

Going into the offseason, there was some concern that the unit might take some big hits. Several prominent players were heading to free agency, and both of the team's coordinators were candidates for head coaching jobs. The organization weathered that storm well. The only significant player defections came in the secondary, for which the team was prepared for, and Lou Anarumo is back to run the show.

Defensive Linemen

The Bengals return all the important pieces of a strong defensive line. At end, Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson are established starters that complement one another well. Hubbard is not going to win any sack titles but is a consistent and dependable three-down guy that excels versus the run and will contribute significantly to the pass rush. Hendrickson is not as stout against the run but has an extra gear that makes him one of the game's premier pass rushers.

In terms of IDP value, there are no elite targets here, but both players have something to offer. Hubbard is not going to put up flashy numbers, but he provides good value and is easy to project. He has at least six sacks in four of his five seasons as a pro, with a career-best of eight in 2019. Hubbard has exactly three batted passes and one forced fumble in each of the last four seasons, but it is his tackle production that makes him a quality option for IDP managers.

The 2019 season was his best to date, with 48 solo stops, 26 assists, 6 sacks, and a final ranking of fifth among defensive linemen. Hubbard has put up at least 33 solos and 60 combined stops in each of the last three seasons, with rankings between 12 and 22. He has the potential to squeeze into the top twelve in 2023 and is a safe target as your second starter.

Hendrickson's appeal is focused more on the big play department. His sack totals were down a bit at eight in 2022, but his first two seasons with the Bengals produced 27, along with 7 forced fumbles and 4 swatted passes. Hendrickson has never exceeded 34 combined tackles in any of his six seasons. With the addition of Murphy, who could see a share of the early down snaps, that is unlikely to change. Combined tackles in the low 30s range and a dozen sacks are reasonable expectations for Hendrickson, making him a solid second starter in big-play-based formats and a high-upside DL3 to cover bye weeks for the rest of us.

Myles Murphy is the wildcard here. He is somewhat of a Hubbard clone in that he stands up well as a point-of-attack defender versus the run and excels in backside pursuit, but is not an explosive upfield speed guy. Like most rookies, Murphy needs to diversify his pass-rush arsenal and improve as a technician. He has a great motor and the work ethic to become a quality three-down starter for the Bengals, though he may not get there this season. Hendrickson is signed through the 2024 season and Hubbard through 2025, so Murphy will have to be patient as he gains experience as the third man in the rotation.

Both Cameron Sample and Joseph Ossai logged over 400 snaps as backups last year. There was a time when both were considered possible future starters. With the addition of Murphy, that is unlikely to happen, but they will continue to provide quality veteran depth.

The edge guys are not the only ones with IDP value here. B.J. Hill had a strong rookie season with the Giants in 2018, totaling 47 combined stops and 5 sacks. He was quiet for a couple of years, then re-emerged with the Bengals in 2021. As the team's 3-technique tackle, Hill recorded 50 combined stops and 5 sacks that season. He managed to improve on those numbers last year, going 31-38-3 with 4 turnovers and 4 batted passes. In each of those two seasons, Hill ranked 14 among interior linemen. He would have moved up a slot or two last year had the Bengals game against the Bills not been canceled. Hill is no threat to join the elite at the position, but he is an excellent target as a second starter in leagues requiring interior linemen.

D.J. Reader rounds out the starting lineup at the 1-technique or nose tackle position. He is a 347-pound anchor in the middle and a significant contributor to the team's strong run defense. Reader commands double teams on running plays between the tackles, which frees up those on both sides of him and makes life much easier for the linebackers behind him. He is not quick and nimble as a pass rusher but has the power to push the pocket and be disruptive. His presence impacts the production of those around him, but like many big men in the trenches, his value on the field does not translate well to the stat sheet.

Zachary Carter and Josh Topou provide depth on the inside. Carter is an interesting prospect that is worth keeping an eye on. He has the versatility to play defensive end if needed but is built to play the 3-technique in the Bengals' aggressive one-gap scheme. Carter was the third man in the inside rotation last year, seeing 462 snaps on the season. His role could expand a bit in his second year, but it would take an injury to one of the starters to make him an IDP factor in 2023.

• DE Sam Hubbard – Consistent and dependable DL2
• DE Trey Hendrickson – Low-end DL2 in big-play formats, bye-week depth for everyone else
• DE Myles Murphy – Short-term sleeper with strong potential in the long term
• DE Joseph Ossai – No impact
• DE Cameron Sample – No impact
• DT D.J. Reader – No impact
• DT B.J. Hill – Priority DT2
• DT Zachary Carter- Grab him if one of the starters goes down.
• DT Josh Topou – No impact

Linebackers

There is no guesswork involved when it comes to the Bengals' linebacker situation, where Logan Wilson has emerged as one of the league's fine young players. From a size, talent, and skill set perspective, Wilson is a prototypical three-down middle linebacker. He combines the size and mentality of a physical run defender with the speed and cover skills that come from being a former safety. Just as importantly, Wilson also brings the intangibles of leadership and toughness.

As a rookie in 2020, Wilson worked in a timeshare with Josh Bynes. In year two, Wilson had the job all to himself, and an IDP star was born. Through Week 12 of 2021, he was the ninth-ranked linebacker with an average of 13.2 points per game. An injury cut his regular season short, but Wilson returned to form last year. With 83 tackles, 38 assists, 2.5 sacks, and a pair of turnovers in 15 games, his average of 12.1 points per game was good enough for a top-20 ranking.

A full slate of games would put Wilson in the 90+ solo tackle and 50 assist range. Considering his college production and the five takeaways in eleven games in 2021, it's a safe bet that his big play numbers will be better going forward as well. Wilson was the number 17 linebacker last year. I expect he will push for a top-12 in 2023.

If you miss out on Wilson, consider Germaine Pratt for depth in the late rounds. Pratt's tackle totals have never been great, and last year was not an exception with 50 solos and 49 assists in 15 games. Add in four turnovers, a sack, and ten passes defended, however, and there is a different perspective.

Pratt made a strong impression after breaking into the starting lineup halfway through his rookie season in 2019. He has continued as the Bengals' weak-side starter since that time but has not been able to secure a full-time role on a regular basis. This is a bit puzzling considering he has ideal size, good speed, was a free safety at the beginning of his college career, and was seen by some scouts as the best coverage linebacker in his draft class.

While he did not reach 100% participation in any game last year, it is important to note that Pratt's playing time increased as the season wore on. He was on the field for 80% of the action after the team's Week 10 bye and averaged almost 87% over the final five games. The Bengals are not going to roll with two linebackers on the field at all times, but Pratt could/should continue to see 80% plus. That will be enough to garner LB3 consideration. It is worth mentioning that when Wilson was out with the shoulder late in the 2021 campaign, Pratt picked up the every-down role. He had 100% participation for those three games, averaging 15 fantasy points per outing.

Cincinnati has run with the nickel as their base defense over the past two seasons, so there are rarely three linebackers on the field together. On those rare occasions, it is Akeem Davis-Gaither in the strong side position. Davis-Gaither has seen some action in base sets over the last two years. That is enough to tell us he would be trusted in those situations if either Wilson or Pratt go down.

Markus Bailey and Joe Bachie make up the rest of the depth chart at the second level. Bachie made a good impression in a limited opportunity in 2021 but played little last season as he recovered from a knee injury.

• MLB Logan Wilson – Priority LB2 with LB1 potential
• WLB Germaine Pratt – Target as depth with LB3 upside
• SLB Akeem Davis-Gaither – Injury sleeper
• WLB Joe Bachie – No impact
• MLB Markus Bailey – No impact

Defensive Backs

While the front seven returns intact, the Bengals' secondary will sport a lot of new faces in 2023. The familiar faces of safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates have moved on so there will be a pair of new starters in those positions, but the team also used a second-round pick on corner DJ Turner II who is likely to be a factor.

Cincinnati prepared for the loss at safety by selecting Dax Hill in round one last season. At this time last year, it was widely speculated that he would see time in the slot to get his feet wet. It didn't turn out that way with Mike Hilton holding onto that role. As a result, Hill saw surprisingly little action, getting on the field for just 151 snaps. With his path to the starting lineup clear, Hill will take over the free safety job in 2023.

Hill has all the tools to excel at the pro level. He is fast, explosive, can play man or zone, and covers a lot of ground. All the traits NFL coaches look for in a free safety. One important point on Hill's scouting report ahead of last year's draft, he is not particularly physical or active in run support.

For anyone expecting big things from Hill in IDP terms, let me point out a few items of interest. He put modest numbers at Michigan, averaging three solo tackles and an assist over 32 games, and had four interceptions and three fumble recoveries over three seasons with the Wolverines. He takes over for Jesse Bates who, once upon a time, was an IDP star, but that was a long time ago in football years. When the Bengals started winning, Bates fell off the face of the earth when it comes to statistics. Simply put, Hill may be a great player for the Bengals but don't expect much help for your fantasy team.

Vonn Bell put up much better numbers than Bates last year but his numbers were way down from also. That would suggest that whoever lands the starting gig at strong safety, might not be the IDP darling many are expecting. At this stage, it is not clear who that player will be.

The Bengals added Nick Scott in free agency. He was the starting strong safety for the Rams in 2022 after holding down the bench for most of his first three seasons in the league. Scott performed adequately both on the field and in the box scores, but in general, was less than inspiring. He will open training camp as the starter but can expect a strong challenge from third-round pick, Jordan Battle. Even if Scott opens the season at strong safety, he is likely to give way to Battle at some point.

Battle is not exactly an intimidating hitter but he is big, fast, and physical enough to get the job done. He put up strong numbers over three years as a starter for Alabama, averaging 74 combined tackles per season with ten turnovers and three returns for scores. Battle has the skillset and potential to become a quality IDP contributor. That said, I would like him a lot more with a different team. Strong play from the Bengals' front seven cuts down on tackle opportunities. Enough to hold down the value of whoever plays the position. The winner of this job could have value as a DB3 but his upside will be limited.

The corner positions have some settled issues and some wide-open ones as we approach training camp. Chidobe Awuzie will be one of the starters if he is ready. He is recovering from a mid-season ACL tear that has his status for the season opener in question. When healthy, he is an outstanding number-one corner with a little value as depth in leagues starting two corners. Even if he is active for the start of the season, it will likely be mid, or even late-season before he is fully recovered.

If Awuzie is not ready, the door will be open for rookie second-round pick DJ Turner II to get on the field right away. Turner is small but feisty. He is polished for a rookie with excellent speed and technique. The only negative to his game is that he can be manhandled at times by bigger, physical receivers. If he ends up starting, the rookie corner rule could be in play.

Then rookie, Cam Taylor-Britt took over when Awuzie was lost and the team never missed a beat. As a second-round pick, it was expected that he would eventually move into a starting role, the injury just sped up the process. Taylor-Britt proved himself and will be in the lineup. He also put up rather respectable numbers, averaging better than four solos and an assist. His only mark in the splash play columns was a single forced fumble but that should change in year two.

The coaching staff has been content with Mike Hilton as the slot corner. He should continue in that role regardless of what happens on the outside.

On the field, the Bengals' secondary is both deep with talent and very young. In fantasy terms, there are no proven commodities of value but this is a group worth keeping an eye on in September.

• FS Daxton Hill – Marginal value expected
• SS Nick Scott – Possible depth if he wins the job
• SS Jordan Battle – dynasty prospect with DB3 ceiling
• FS Tycen Anderson – No impact
• FS Michael Thomas – No impact
• CB Chidobe Awuzie – Potential CB3 when/if healthy
• CB Cam Taylor-Britt – Low-end CB2 at best
• CB Mike Hilton – No impact
• CB Sidney Jones – No impact
• CB DJ Turner – Rookie corner rule could be in play
• CB DJ Ivey – Developmental rookie

That's a wrap for part 9. Coming up next, the Cleveland Browns

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