Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Baltimore | Chicago | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Green Bay | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | Minnesota | San Francisco | Seattle

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

The only thing that kept the Bears' pass defense from being the worst in the league was a run defense that was. Chicago gave up so much on the ground that opponents just ran and virtually gave their quarterbacks a week off. With a pass defense that allowed a 67.2% completion rate and a league-worst 7.7 yards per attempt, it's a good thing they faced the second-fewest pass attempts on the year.

Versus the run, Chicago was tied for 26th at 4.9 yards per carry, 31st in total rushing yards, and dead last in scoring with a whopping 31 rushing touchdowns surrendered. By the way, they were last in sacks with a mere 20 as well. Between all of that and giving up the most points of any defense in 2022. It's no wonder the Bears used seven of their ten draft picks on defense. The good news is, there is no place to go but up, but don't expect a big jump this year. The Bears have a long way to go, personnel-wise.

Defensive Linemen

Even before they used three draft picks, including a second on the defensive line, Chicago spent some money there. Former Texan Rasheem Green and former Titan DeMarcus Walker, will both have significant roles at defensive end. Walker projects as a starter, while Green will compete with holdovers Trevis Gipson and Dominique Robinson for the other spot. I could say that I'm optimistic that this group will show significant improvement in sack numbers, but that would be a lie.

Walker is a good player, but he is not a dominating pass rusher. In fact, he has never played on the edge as a pro, having been a down-linemen in 3-4 schemes for all six years of his career. At 6-foot-4 and 280 pounds, Walker holds up well as a point-of-attack run defender, so that is a start. He did manage a career-best of seven sacks while with the Titans in 2022, but Walker's previous best was four and a half with Denver in 2020. There is little threat of him hitting double-digit sacks, but Walker should be good for five or six, had has the potential to put up enough tackles to be relevant as depth in most leagues.

Most early depth charts speculate that Gipson will start opposite Walker. That may be the case, but my money is on Green. The 2018 third-round pick of the Seahawks did little over his first three seasons. When Seattle finally gave him a significant role in 2021, he responded with 47 combined tackles, 6.5 sacks, and 4 batted passes. Green quickly turned that success into a pay raise, bolting to the Texans in free agency. Green failed to impress at Houston, but he did see the second most snaps among their defensive ends. After posting 28-14-3.5 on 568 plays, he was not invited back and landed with the Bears.

There are no pro bowls in Green's future, but he is a capable edge defender that can stay on the field on all three downs. He has to offer as a pass rusher than Walker but is not as stout against the run. That said, I believe Green has the most upside of all Chicago defensive ends. That could mean seven or eight sacks and 35-40 combined tackles but probably not much more.

Regardless of which one holds the title of starter, both Green and Trevis Gipson are going to see plenty of action. Gipson didn't get on the field much as a rookie in 2020. When his chance came in 2021, he looked pretty good, going 23-16-7 while forcing 5 fumbles and recovering one. That left the team with a great deal of optimism entering last season, but instead of taking the next step, Gipson regressed substantially. That might have had more to do with poor play by the entire unit than just regression by Gipson himself. He will get another shot at proving himself in what is now a contract year.

Dominique Robinson is the other defensive end that will see a fair amount of playing time. He got on the field as a rookie, working as the third man after Robert Quinn was shipped to Philadelphia. Robinson got off to a hot start with five tackles, two assists, and a sack and a half on 28 snaps in the season opener, then pretty much vanished for the rest of the season. Rookies usually improve in year two, but Robinson is unlikely to have enough opportunity to be fantasy relevant. He is worth keeping an eye on, though.

Justin Jones, Andrew Billings, rookies Gervon Dexter Sr, and Zacch Pickens should be the players that see the most action at the tackle positions. Jones managed 51 combined stops with three sacks and five swatted passes with the Bears last year. That represented the most productive season of his five-year career, and it was enough to make him a decent option as a low-end DT2 or quality depth in leagues requiring two interior linemen. He should put up similar production in 2023, but there is not much upside.

Billings is a good veteran player but has never been an IDP factor. That is not going to change six years into his career. Checking in at six foot six and 310 pounds, Dexter figures to see most of his playing time at nose tackle, AKA the one-technique. He doesn't have much to offer as a pass rusher and is not likely to put up enough tackles to be an IDP factor. Pickens is an interesting prospect. He is an athletic big man that is best suited as a disruptive, one-gap penetrator with the power to push the pocket and a little wiggle to his pass rush. He put up respectable tackle numbers and had seven and a half sacks at South Carolina. Pickens will rotate with Jones at the three-technique and could become a decent IDP option down the road. The rest of the depth chart at tackle is made up of late-round and undrafted developmental players as the team added quantity in the hope they would find a diamond in the rough.

• DE DeMarcus Walker – DL3 candidate without much upside
• DE Rasheem Green – Possible DL3 with a little upside
• DE Trevis Gipson – DL3 at best
• DE Dominique Robinson – No impact expected
• DT Andrew Billings – No impact
• DT Justin Jones – Marginal DL2 or solid DL3
• DT Gervon Dexter Sr No impact expected
• DT Zacch Pickens – No impact
• DT Jalen Holmes – No impact
• DT Travis Bell – No impact

Linebackers

Starting in week nine of last season, Jack Sanborn went on an incredible six-game run that put a lot of IDP managers into the playoffs. With 48 tackles, 11 assists, 2 sacks, and a fumble recovery, he averaged 15.2 points over that stretch before missing the final three games with an injury. His name will forever be remembered by those who picked him up, but it doesn't look like he will have a chance to further his legacy.

With the additions of Tremaine Edmunds at middle linebacker and T.J. Edwards on the weak side, Sanborn is expected to be the starter on the strong side. The problem is, with teams using so much nickel these days, "starting strong-side linebacker" is not much more than an honorary title. Joe Thomas held that title for much of 2022. Over the eight games before Roquan Smith was traded, Thomas totaled 74 snaps, seeing 12 or fewer four times.

The dilemma for IDP managers is figuring out who is the better target between Edmunds and Edwards. The good news here is that there will be plenty of opportunities for both to be IDP-friendly. The even better news is that Chicago fielded two linebackers with at least 98% participation in thirteen games last year, with at least 88% participation by both in three of the other four outings.

There are many similarities between Edmunds and Edwards. Both are big linebackers by today's standards, with Edmunds checking in at 6-foot-5 and 250 pounds and Edwards at 6-foot-1 and 242. Both players are physical run defenders that have good range and make a lot of tackles. Edmunds put up 105 combined last year, despite missing four games, and Edwards filled the stat sheet with 99 solos and 60 assists. Lastly, neither player makes much noise in the big play department. Over five seasons in Buffalo, Edmunds totaled six sacks and seven turnovers, while Edwards accounted for five sacks and six turnovers in four seasons with the Eagles. If pushed to make a choice, I would put Edmunds ahead of Edwards on my draft board based solely on the positions. Without adding a few more big plays to their value, I see both players as solid LB2 targets.

Chicago used a fifth-round pick on Oregon's Noah Sewell. He was a three-year starter for the Ducks, so inexperience is not a problem. But speed, anticipation, and overall production are. In 35 college games, Sewell totals 105 solo stops and 113 assists for an average of 3 tackles and 3.2 assists. Coaching will help, but Sewell is unlikely to ever be more than a backup, two-down thumper.

• MLB Tremaine Edmunds – Solid LB2 with limited big-play potential
• WLB T.J. Edwards – Solid LB2
• SLB Jack Sanborn – Injury sleeper
• MLB Noah Sewell – Dynasty prospect with limited potential
• SLB Dylan Cole – No impact

Defensive Backs

The Bears did not throw money at the secondary. Instead, they are using draft capital to rebuild that level of the defense. The project started last year when the team used their first two picks on corner Kyler Gordon and safety Jaquan Brisker. They picked up another safety, Elijah Hicks, and added a few more guys as undrafted free agents. In all, Chicago had six rookie defensive backs make the final roster. This year's draft investment was not as rich as they selected corners Tyrique Stevenson in round two and Terell Smith in the fifth.

Brisker and Gordon were immediate starters and, despite the statistical struggles of the team, played pretty well. Most of the team's problems versus the pass were due to an inability to find consistent second and third corners and an overall lack of depth. In all, twelve players saw action in the secondary, which was a revolving door from week to week.

The Bears starting safety tandem is both established and loaded with IDP value. Brisker was a great addition and the kind of player that can help turn the defense around in his second year. He has excellent range, is physical, versatile, and has a mean streak that coaches love.

Brisker finished as the number 18 defensive back in 2022, with an average of almost eleven points per game. He was exceptionally consistent, reaching double-digits ten times while falling short of seven points just once. He stayed busy as a rookie, cleaning up after a leaky front seven. In fifteen games, Brisker accounted for 73 tackles and 31 assists, with 4 sacks and 3 turnovers. The only area in which he failed to make much of a contribution was pass breakups, where he was credited with two. Expect that number to increase in 2023 though he may never show big production in that area. He is a great fit for the attacking style of play the Bears want to establish, and at 24 years old, his best and most productive seasons are ahead of him.

At 30 years old and entering his seventh season as a pro, free safety Eddie Jackson is the grizzled veteran leader in the Chicago secondary. He is also a challenge to figure out when it comes to IDP value.

Jackson never put up big tackle numbers, at least not before last year. Early in his career, he was a major big play threat. Over his first three seasons, Jackson never exceeded 72 combined stops, but produced ten interceptions, forced four fumbles, recovered five, and totaled 25 passes defended. Then suddenly, the turnovers stopped. Jackson failed to intercept a pass in 2020 or 2021 and had seven passes defended between the two seasons. The best tackle total of his career came in 2020 at 63 solos and 20 assists, but without the splash play numbers, he had marginal IDP value in those two seasons.

In the first year under head coach Matt Eberflus and defensive coordinator Alan Williams, Jackson gave us the best of both worlds. Before the foot injury that ended his season in week twelve, Jackson was on pace for 85 tackles and 30 assists. Through twelve games, he had four picks and two forced fumbles with an average of 12.3 points that ranked fifth among defensive backs. The big question is, will he turn back into a pumpkin in 2023 or continue to be an IDP star?

If there were no explainable reason for the sudden outburst of production, it would be easy to write Jackson off as a one-year wonder. Between the change of scheme and a struggling team, it's not hard to figure out how his fortunes could have changed. The Bears should be a little better in 2023, and they now have two good linebackers to share the load, so Jackson's tackle numbers could slip a little, but he should still be in line for a productive season.

The Bears had a third defensive back with IDP value, especially in corner-required leagues. Kyler Gordon totaled 55 tackles and 16 assists, adding 5 takeaways and 6 pass breakups in 13 games for an average of almost ten points per game. In accordance with the rookie corner rule, his numbers should start to regress in year two, but there is a good chance Gordon could be one of those few corners that break the trend and continue to make a lot of plays. He is a physical corner that, unlike many at the position, seems to relish contact rather than trying to avoid it. It is hard to tell if his heavy contribution in run support was due to the target-rich environment or because Gordon loves that part of the game. Either way, I like his chances of repeating the top-ten finish.

As we close in on training camp, it is unknown who will start opposite Gordon or how the rest of the pecking order will pan out. Jaylon Jones, Jaylon Johnson, and Kindle Vildor all made starts in 2022 and will be in the mix for one of the spots, as will Tyrique Stevenson. If the rookie ends up with the job, we could have another installment of the rookie corner rule in play. This story is far from over. All we can do is follow the clues until they lead to an answer.

• FS Eddie Jackson – DB1 with risk
• SS Jaquan Brisker – Strong DB2 with top-ten upside
• FS Elijah Hicks – No impact expected
• SS Kendall Williamson – Developmental rookie
• CB Kyler Gordon – Potential CB1
• CB Jaylon Johnson – Watch list sleeper
• CB Tyrique Stevenson – Possible rookie corner rule
• CB Jaylon Jones – Watch list sleeper
• CB Kindle Vildor – No impact
• CB Terell Smith – No impact

That's a wrap for Part 15. Up Next, we finish off the NFC North with the Lions.

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