Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Baltimore | Chicago | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Detroit | Green Bay | Houston | Indianapolis | Jacksonville | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | Minnesota | Pittsburgh | San Francisco | Seattle

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

The 2022 Jaguars didn't play great defense, but after finishing near the bottom of the league in every important category in 2021, they made great strides. The pass defense was one of five to give up more than 4000 yards, but that coincides with the fact that they faced the sixth most attempts. Their completion percentage of 64.1 was middle of the pack, and the 6.8 yards per attempt, while still in the bottom half of the league, was an improvement.

Jacksonville's pass rush improved a little, adding three sacks to their 2021 total, but the team's biggest improvements came against the run and in the turnover columns. At 4.2 yards per carry, the Jaguars ranked fifth, and they were number twelve in rush yards. When it came to takeaways, it was hard to believe we were watching the same team that was dead last with nine in 2021, as last year's unit jumped all the way to 27, with only the Cowboys, Patriots, and 49ers recording more.

With things heading in the right direction defensively, the team was not a big player in free agency on that side of the ball. Nor did they commit any early-round draft capital but they did use eight of their thirteen draft picks on defense, all fourth-round or later. That is how good teams build depth.

Defensive Linemen

Last year's Jaguars had no stand-out pass rushers. Edge defender Josh Allen led the team with a modest six. What they did have is a defensive scheme that got everyone involved while keeping opponents guessing where the pressure would come from. In all, 14 players put at least one mark in the sack column.

Allen is, hands down, the team's best pass rusher. The former seventh overall pick (2019) recorded ten sacks as a rookie but hasn't gotten back to double-digits since. He missed most of 2020 with an injury and totaled seven in 2021. While those are not great numbers, there have been some extenuating circumstances. He had the knee sprain in 2020, followed by a scheme change and a dumpster fire of a season under Urban Meyer.

There is no excuse for Allen failing to produce more sacks last year, but there is another statistic we need to be aware of, quarterback pressures. What does that have to do with anything you say? Most leagues don't award points for pressures, but I like to use them as a scouting tool. For example, in 2021, Maxx Crosby of the Raiders only had six sacks, but he led the league in pressures. In 2022 he broke out for 11.5 sacks and was an elite IDP option.

Allen sits in virtually the exact same place, having been at or near the top of the league in pressures last season. Like Crosby, I think he will start turning some of those into sacks in 2023 and will be surprised if he fails to set a new career mark. With 70 combined tackles in 2021 and 58 in 2022, Allen gives us plenty of tackle production, and he has eight takeaways in three seasons. With a few more sacks, he is a quality second starter or borderline DE1.

Jacksonville used the first pick in the draft on Travon Walker last year. Most observers would count his three-and-a-half sacks as a disappointing season for someone with his draft status. If you are one of those people, you are probably going to be disappointed with his entire career.

The Jaguars knew exactly what they were getting with Walker, and it is not a sack title. In fact, he may never reach double-digit sacks in a season. In Walker, they have a player that can stay on the field in any situation, will set the edge, and be strong at the point of attack versus the run. He is not a quick twitch, speed guy that is going to blow past offensive tackles and live in the backfield, but Walker has the size, power, motor, and enough athleticism to be a factor on passing downs. His presence has already paid dividends in the team's improvement against the run.

Walker totaled 49 combined stops, 3 sacks, and 2 turnovers as a rookie. Those numbers should go up across the board in year two. Just how far remains to be seen, but I am projecting him at 38-26-6 for 2023.

It was a good thing that neither Allen nor Walker were injured last year because Jacksonville was short on depth. After producing three sacks in three seasons, K'Lavon Chaisson has been a first-round bust and is rumored to be on the roster bubble entering camp. Arden Key contributed four and a half sacks as the third man in the rotation, but he has moved on. In response to the need, the team used a couple of picks on edge defenders. They tagged Louisville's Yasir Abdullah in the fifth and Houston's Derek Parish in the seventh.

Abdullah is somewhat of a tweener with the ability to play off-ball or on the edge, but it is clear that the team plans to use him at the latter. In two seasons as a starter for the Cardinals, he totaled 123 combined tackles and 19.5 sacks. At six foot one and 235 pounds, he is not going to see much time on early downs but can contribute right away as a rush specialist. Parish has a similar build though he is a bit bigger. Over 23 games as a starter for the Cougars, he totaled 99 stops with 13.5 sacks.

There is no Aaron Donald or DeForest Buckner on this roster, but Jacksonville has a group of quality veteran players in their interior line rotation. DaVon Hamilton is a 335-pound road grader at the nose tackle position. He doesn't offer much as a pass rusher beyond the ability to push the pocket but is a formidable force against the run. With 55 combined stops, a couple of sacks, and 2 takeaways, Hamilton was the number 26 interior lineman last year, putting him in the DT3 range. That is about what we should expect in 2023 as well.

Folorunso Fatukasi, Roy Robertson-Harris, and Adam Gotsis make up the rotation at the tackle positions. Robertson-Harris is an eight-year veteran that had his most productive season with the Jaguars in 2022. But at 28-16-3, it was not enough to provide IDP relevance. Fatukasi and Gotsis have put up similar numbers throughout their careers. They form a solid core that will help the Jaguars in their quest for a playoff birth but will not do the same for our teams.

• Edge Josh Allen – Target as a DL3 with high DL2 upside
• Edge Travon Walker – DL3 with limited upside in the splash play columns
• Edge K'Lavon Chaisson – No impact expected
• Edge Shaquille Quarterman – No impact
• Edge Derek Parish – Developmental rookie rush specialist
• Edge Yasir Abdullah – Developmental rookie
• DT Folorunso Fatukasi – Marginal IDP value
• DT Roy Robertson-Harris – Marginal IDP value
• DT Michael Dogbe – May see some snaps in the rotation but no impact
• DT Adam Gotsis – No impact
• DT DaVon Hamilton – Roster worth as a DT3
• DT Raymond Vohasek – No impact
• DT Tyler Lacy – Developmental rookie

Linebackers

There were two major surprises among the Jaguars linebackers last season. Foyesade Oluokun not only survived the team change without losing value but captured the top slot in the final rankings for the second year in a row, and first-round pick Devin Lloyd was a virtual bust despite being handed a full-time role right from the start.

As a member of the Falcons, Oluokun went 100-91-2 with 4 turnovers to become the fantasy game's most valuable linebacker. Having several shares of him in dynasty leagues, I, like every other dynasty managed that has him, cringed when he changed teams. Surely he would not be as productive in a different situation. Then Jacksonville used a first and a third on two of the best linebackers in last year's draft, Lloyd and Chad Muma. As Aaron Rodgers would say, R-E-L-A-X. Oluokun's average points per game dropped all the way from 15.6 to 15.4.

Oluokun is a tackling machine extraordinaire. His 191 combined stops in 2021 were an NFL record, and his 127 solos in 2022 led the league by 18. He makes plenty of splash plays, with at least two sacks and four turnovers in each of the last three seasons, and is on a tier by himself as the IDP game's most valuable player. If you are going to break the seal on IDP in your draft, Oluokun is the guy to take.

Lloyd's season started as expected, with an eleven-tackle performance against the Commanders in week one. By week six, he was the fantasy game's number three linebacker, one slot ahead of Oluokun. Then the wheels fell off. He went six straight games with two or fewer solo tackles, including the week eight contest against Denver when he had none. Lloyd bounced back for a couple of games in December but never managed to recapture the magic. He was benched in favor of Muma in week twelve and shared time the rest of the way.

The explanation seems rather simple, Lloyd wore down and hit the rookie wall hard. This is a common happening in the NFL, though it is rarely so obvious on the stat sheet. The college season is significantly shorter, so the NFL requires a different level of conditioning and a different approach to taking care physically. Lloyd will be better prepared for year two and should bounce back nicely. If anything, his struggles will make him a value in our drafts, where we can pick him up a few rounds later than some players he will finish ahead of.

Chad Muma is a starting quality player in the NFL. Having signed Oluokun and picked Lloyd, It was a shock when Jacksonville circled back to pick Muma in round three. He is an outstanding insurance policy against injury and will be a highly productive addition if he gets on the field full-time. Muma finished last season at 27-20-1.5 on 319 plays. If we take his per-snap production and multiply it by the 1031 snaps that Lloyd played, Muma's numbers are 87-65-5. It is a shame to see this guy buried on a depth chart. With Oluokun signed through 2024, Muma is going to be stuck unless someone rescues him via trade.

The organization hit the linebacker position again, picking up Ventrell Miller in the fourth round of this year's draft. Barring a disastrous set of circumstances, Miller will never see the field on defense outside of garbage time, but he should become a key special teams contributor right away.

• ILB Foyesade Oluokun – Elite LB1 on a tier of his own
• ILB Devin Lloyd – High upside with potentially a bargain price tag due to rookie struggles
• ILB Chad Muma – Arguably the best backup off-ball linebacker in the league
• ILB Ventrell Miller – No impact expected

Defensive Backs

The defensive back positions are by far the hardest to project because there is so much change from year to year. Every season we see a fairly big number of new names among the top 20. Sometimes those guys can be identified in time to draft them, but anyone that tells you they predicted Rayshawn Jenkins being the number two defensive back in the IDP game is lying through their teeth.

Jenkins spent his first three seasons (2017-2019) as a backup for the Chargers. He landed a starting gig in 2020 but was not particularly impressive, going 59-25-1 with a couple of interceptions, but it was enough for the Jaguars to offer him a free-agent contract and a starting job. There was nothing special about his first season as a starter for the team, but a scheme change and possibly some magic beans made him a different player last year.

Jenkins contributed everywhere. His 73 solo tackles were tied for ninth among defensive backs, and his 43 assists were tied for fourth. Jenkins' twelve passes defended were at or near the top among safeties, and his six takeaways were one more than the rest of his career numbers combined.

The thing that concerns me about Jenkins is that it took six years for him to break out. It is not unheard of for a player to land in just the right situation several years into his career and be highly productive from there on. On the other hand, it is not uncommon for a player in such a situation to be a one-year wonder, either. Because there are changes around him that can at least partially explain the sudden production, I am leaning toward this being the start of something big, but I am not leaning hard enough to take Jenkins as one of the first five defensive backs off the board.

If we look closely, free safety Andre Cisco might be the better target. At six feet and 210 pounds, he is a free safety stuck in the body of a box safety. If not for his cover skills and splash play potential, Cisco might be working close to the line a lot more often.

His overall numbers were not eye-catching but keep in mind that Cisco missed two games and played the final four with a sore shoulder. Through the first eleven contests, he was 43-16-0 with 3 interceptions, 9 passes defended, and a score. At that point, Cisco was the number ten defensive back with an average of 11.2 points per game and was well ahead of Jenkins, who ranked 24th. Cisco was on pace to finish at roughly 67-37-0 with 4 picks and 14 passes defended.

The concern with Cisco so far in his career has been the injuries. He suffered a torn ACL two games into his final season at Syracuse and missed much of his rookie season with Jacksonville. The injury caused him to slide into round three in 2021, but his college production was impressive. In 24 games with the Orange, Cisco totaled 136 combined stops, forced 2 fumbles, and intercepted a whopping 13 passes. The smart play might be to let someone else take Jenkins and slip Cisco onto your roster a few rounds later.

Tyson Campbell is locked in as one of Jacksonville's starting corners. The 2021 second-round pick was an immediate starter, putting up respectable numbers in his first year. Bucking the rookie corner rule, Campbell's tackle production remained virtually the same in year two while his big play totals jumped from two turnovers as a rookie to six, and his passes defended went from 10 to 15. At 9.2 points per game, he was the number 14 corner in 2022. Two seasons is a relatively small sample, but the consistent tackle numbers and the bump in big plays are reasons for optimism. I like his chances of being at least a good second starter this year.

The rest of the pecking order at the corner positions will be determined during training camp and the preseason. Darious Williams is the favorite, but Tre Herndon might have something to say about it. Both players are good NFL corners in terms of coverage, but neither of them offers much in the big play or IDP departments.

There are a couple of interesting rookies here. Antonio Johnson is a physical box safety with a passion for contact, especially in run support. He is adequate in most coverage situations and matches up well with bigger receivers and pass-catching tight ends. Johnson was highly productive at Texas A&M, totaling 150 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and a pick over 21 games. Put him on the watchlist, or maybe stash him on a taxi squad, just in case.

The other rookie is Christian Braswell. He excelled as a slot/nickel corner during his time at both Temple and Rutgers. His tackle totals were not impressive, but that could have more to do with how much those teams were in nickel than Braswell's ability. He is smallish but hard-nosed and tough to block on the perimeter. Both Johnson and Braswell could have a shot at some sub-package playing time early on, and both could be in line for major roles down the road.

• SS Rayshawn Jenkins – Stud DB! If you believe what we saw last year, I'm not sold
• FS Andre Cisco – Sneaky later-round target with a knack for the big play
• SS Andrew Wingard – Injury sleeper with limited upside
• SS Antonio Johnson – Box safety with dynasty potential
• SS Daniel Thomas – No impact
• CB Darious Williams – No impact
• CB Tyson Campbell – Solid CB2
• CB Tre Herndon – No impact
• CB Chris Claybrooks – No impact
• CB Christian Braswell – Watchlist sleeper with dynasty potential

That's a wrap for Part 19. I'll round out the AFC South next with the Titans.

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