Congratulations! If you are reading this, chances are you either earned a first-round bye or won your first-round game. It feels good to get here but don't make the mistake of taking your foot off the gas. No one wants to be a Jonathan Taylor and drop the ball just before crossing the finish line. If anything, with two games to go, turn up the heat for these last two weeks and sprint to the finish.

A few words of wisdom as we look to field a week 16 winner. Do your homework, but don't outsmart yourself. If there is anything I've learned in 30+ years at this game, it's not to be over-reliant on matchups come playoff time. Things change fast in December. Teams are heading in a variety of directions. Some are in the NFL playoffs and chasing a bye, some are desperately trying to land one of the remaining tickets to the dance, and others are already looking to next year. Injuries are taking their toll, forcing offenses and defenses to adjust and evolve. Simply put, in many cases, the numbers we have been looking at to determine the best matchups are no longer relevant.

The bottom line here is when in doubt, stick to the horses that pulled your wagon to the dance. Don't play a backup over a guy who's been starting for you all season just because the numbers from the first 12 weeks suggest the matchup is better. There is more to winning a championship than just crunching numbers.

Guru's IDP Notes: Arizona Cardinals

Mack Wilson Sr. suffered a concussion early in Sunday's game. Krys Barnes got the majority of the snaps after Wilson left, but the team moved away from the base defense, using some big nickel and bringing on Julian Okwara as an extra pass rusher on some plays. Wilson played 4 snaps, Barnes 23, Okwara 18, and Dedrion Taylor-Demerson 12. Unless the team gives us some reason before Sunday to believe differently, we are not getting any help from these guys.

Here's a nugget for the dynasty managers. Darius Robinson not only recorded his first NFL sack, but he also led the team's interior linemen in snaps at 59%. Slip this guy onto your roster for safekeeping. He's going to be a good one.

Guru's IDP Notes: Atlanta Falcons

Bad news for anyone looking to get linebacker production from any Falcon besides Kaden Elliss. Atlanta shut Troy Andersen down, placing him on IR. Instead of plugging Nate Landman back into the lineup, they went with a time-share between Landman and rookie JD Bertrand. Bertrand worked on 29 snaps, while Landman saw action on 20. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Baltimore Ravens

We could get some help from the Ravens. Malik Harrison had a solid outing against the Giants, going 2-6-1 on a 79% play share. He worked on two more plays than Roquan Smith in the blowout win. Meanwhile, Trenton Simpson was an afterthought, logging five snaps. Harrison went 4-2 on 47% of the playing time versus Pittsburgh in the first meeting. He should produce better with the expanded role.

Since moving into the starting lineup, Ar'Darius Washington has turned in double-digit fantasy points in five of eight games, including a 13-point outing against the Steelers in week eleven. Washington was 5-7 in the tackle columns in that game. He also has two picks and a sack in eight starts and is coming off his highest point total of the season versus the Giants last week. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Buffalo Bills

Matt Milano left Sunday's game with a groin injury, and Dorian Williams departed with an elbow. That left Baylon Spector to handle the final 18 snaps at the weakside linebacker position. Williams was back on the field for a few snaps late in the fourth quarter, suggesting his injury is not serious. We should know more about the status of these players when the participation reports come out on Wednesday. The Patriots have been an excellent matchup for linebackers over the last several weeks, so we could get some help here.  

Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp were both inactive versus Detroit. Both players have a chance to get back on the field this week in a plus matchup. Cole Bishop and Cam Lewis saw most of the action at safety last week with an appearance by Kareem Jackson. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Carolina Panthers

Claudin Cherelus got the start at weak-side linebacker against Dallas. He made a good impression, recording nine combined stops with five solos, on 73% of the action. The Panthers put Trevin Wallace and Cherelus on IR Tuesday. The next man up on Sunday was Jon Rhattigan.  

The spell is broken for A'Shawn Robinson. Blame this one on me. After watching him rack up double-digit points in six straight games, I finally broke down and started him over DeForest Buckner. It cost me a close playoff game. Sadly, I knew better and should have listened to my own advice. In my defense and Robinson's, he is not practicing early this week due to a sore knee.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Chicago Bears

Safety Elijah Hicks returned to action after missing three games, but he did not return to a full-time role. Instead, he worked in a time-share with Jonathan Owens getting 55% of the playing time. This may have been a case of Hicks being on a pitch count. Owens was far more productive with 6 solo stops to Hicks 2-2. Unfortunately, there is no way to know how the playing time will break down for week 16, so plugging in Owens is a major risk.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cincinnati Bengals

Sam Hubbard suffered a PCL injury on his TD catch. He will not suit up for week 16 and could miss the rest of the season. Look for Joseph Ossai to get the start against Cleveland and split time relatively equally with Myles Murphy. The Browns have been a strong matchup for edge defenders, but I'm not sure either of these guys can take advantage of it.  

Jordan Battle took the lead in the strong safety time-share when the Bengals returned from their bye in week 13. His playing time has increased in each game since, reaching 90% against Tennessee. Not so coincidentally, Battle had the most productive game of his young career, going 5-5 with a fumble recovery for nearly 20 fantasy points. The Browns have been an inconsistent matchup for safeties, and they will have a new starting quarterback this week. For anyone in dire need, Battle is worth a shot. This news is probably more valuable to dynasty managers looking to pack their rosters with next year's prospects.

B.J. Hill went 4-0-1 and has a sack in three consecutive games. Giving up an average of nearly 10 combined stops and a sack to the interior line positions, Cleveland gives Hill a shot at four in a row and another quality point total.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Cleveland Browns

With Greg Newsome II on IR, the concussion suffered by Martin Emerson Jr on Sunday puts the Browns in a bad spot when they face the high-powered Cincinnati offense. Cameron Mitchell should get the start if Emerson is not cleared.

The Bengals are a tough matchup for edge defenders, giving up six combined stops and just less than a sack per game to the position. That said, Myles Garrett has been a thorn in their side over his entire career. Garrett was poked in the eye and is seeing a doctor this week to have it checked out. It doesn't sound like he is in danger of missing any time, but watch the injury report if he is your guy.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Dallas Cowboys

After being inactive for week 14, Damone Clark was in uniform but did not play against the Panthers. Instead, it was Marist Liufau with an increased role, going 2-4 with a forced fumble on 87% of the snaps. 

Trevon Diggs is heading for knee surgery that could affect his 2025 season. The recovery is expected to take eight months, pushing his expected return into late September at best.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Detroit Lions

Last week, I talked about all the injuries the Lions defense has suffered. On Sunday, they lost two more starters when Carlton Davis went down with a broken jaw and Alim McNeill tore his ACL. Chicago is struggling offensively, so a game with Detroit's JV defense could be just what they need to put some points on the board. The Bears have been a less-than-stellar matchup for players at the second and third levels of the defense, but this situation could trump that. Kerby Joseph,  Brian Branch, and Jack Campbell combined for 22 tackles, 12 assists, and a pair of pass breakups against Buffalo. No one will mistake the Bears' offense for the Bills, but these guys could all have good numbers again this week. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Green Bay Packers

Quay Walker went down with an ankle injury that has the team calling him week-to-week. That normally means the player will miss at least one game. Looking at the stat sheet, we might assume that Edgerrin Cooper (6-1-1 int.) picked up the extra snaps. That was not the case, however. Cooper was in his normal role, seeing 58% of the snaps while splitting time with Isaiah McDuffie. Eric Wilson came off the bench to take over for Walker and played every snap the rest of the way. The Saints were a good matchup for linebackers for most of the season, but they are severely hamstrung by injuries to Derek Carr, Taysom Hill, and now Alvin Kamara, among others. It might be a good idea to avoid the situation this week. That said, the linebackers have a great matchup with Minnesota in week 17.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Houston Texans

There was no easing back into action for Christian Harris, who was on the field for 82% of the snaps in his first action of the season. His four tackles and four assists were respectable, and most importantly, he came through healthy. Harris could be back to an every-down role when the Texans face the Chiefs this week. Even if he is not, at 80% participation with a good matchup, he is a safe, high-floor play.

Guru's IDP Notes: Jacksonville Jaguars

For most of the last two decades, the Jaguars have been a goldmine of fantasy production at the linebacker position. To say it has been a downseason for Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd would be an understatement. The two bottomed out in week 15 when they let us down big time. Granted, the Jets were a horrible matchup going into the game, so big numbers were not expected. Even with just 16 rush attempts, Oluokun and Lloyd should have been better than three tackles and two assists between them. Fortunately, for those of us who survived the letdown, they have better matchups in the next two weeks. The Raiders are mediocre in that category, and Jacksonville finishes the fantasy season against the Titans, who are a strong opponent for the position.

Guru's IDP Notes: Kansas City Chiefs

Chamarri Conner suffered a concussion and had to be helped off the field late in the second quarter. He will have to clear protocol, and after watching him go off on wobbly legs, I would not count on that happening this week. Nazeeh Johnson stepped in to finish the game and would likely get the start.

Guru's IDP Notes: Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have shut down Maxx Crosby who will have surgery to repair the ankle that has bothered him for most of the season. Interestingly, they made Charles Snowden inactive for the Monday night game. As a result, K'Lavon Chaisson jumped from his usual 40% of the snaps to 98% while last year's seventh overall pick, Tyree Wilson went from 45% to 72%. Chaisson is a career backup who, barring injury situations like the one at hand, will never claim a starting role.

Wilson, on the other hand, is someone we need to scoop up and stash in dynasty formats. He was not playing much early in the season. Since week eight, Wilson has four sacks and four games with double-digit points. He was 3-1-1 versus Atlanta, posting those numbers for the second time in four games.

The Raiders poached Andre Carter II from the Vikings practice squad. It will be interesting to see if anything comes of this move.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Los Angeles Chargers

Troy Dye put up good numbers against the Buccaneers at 5-4-1, but don't get excited about it. His role was limited to 56% of the snaps with Junior Colson getting 29%. Denzel Perryman opened the week with a limited label. He could be back in action this week as well.   

Tampa Bay shut down the Chargers pass rushers. The group did virtually nothing for the second consecutive week. Next on the schedule, is a horrid matchup with a Denver team that has given up the second-fewest points to edge defenders since week nine. One interesting note here; with all four edge guys healthy, Tuli Tuipulotu led the group in snaps at 65%. Stash that in your memory bank.

Guru's IDP Notes: Los Angeles Rams

Kobie Turner had a big game against San Francisco, going 3-2-2. Christian Rozeboom added his first career sack to nine combined stops for his sixth double-digit outing in the last seven games. For Turner, the chances of another strong outing are good. The Jets are allowing nine combined stops and almost a sack and a half per game to interior linemen since week nine. It will be tougher sledding for Rozeboom. Over the last five games, New York has given up the fewest points to linebackers by a wide margin of over 2.5 points per game.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Miami Dolphins

The Texans are one of those teams that are not the same in December as they were previously. The dominant running game has faded to the point that Houston had 13 rush attempts. Despite the short supply of opportunities, Jordyn Brooks started slow but finished strong at 6-2 with a fumble recovery, while Anthony Walker Jr. totaled 4-3-1. Both players were on the field for every defensive snap.

Guru's IDP Notes: New England Patriots

After missing three games with an injury, Kyle Dugger's numbers have steadily increased in each outing. He has three in a row with good point totals, including a solid 6-4 versus the Cardinals. If you look at season-long numbers, the Bills are a weak matchup for safeties. However, when we look at just the last six games, Buffalo ranks in the top half of the league. That said, the ranking is driven purely by tackle production. Safeties have made no splash plays against the Bills in their last six games. If he plays, Dugger should give us good tackle totals but there is no big play upside. He did not practice on Wednesday with a combination of illness and a sore ankle.  

Guru's IDP Notes: New Orleans Saints

With the Saints' offense handicapped by injuries, the defense is spending more time on the field. The 78 plays they worked against Washington was their second-highest total of the season. Fortunately for Saints fans and IDP managers, the defense is still playing well. It not only kept them in the game against the Commanders but gave them a chance to win it on a two-point conversion at the end of the game.

The Saints racked up nine sacks versus Washington, including one by Carl Granderson who finished at 3-3-1 for his highest point total since week three. Chase Young got in on the action at 3-0-2, and Cameron Jordan reminded us how good he once was with a 3-3-2. These guys were a pleasant surprise for anyone who started them last week. If you were one of those managers, cash in your chips and be happy, but don't push your luck. The Packers are a far different matchup for edge defenders. Over their last five games, Green Bay allowed an average of 4.9 combined tackles to the edge position with four total sacks to all positions combined.

Will Harris continues to be productive. Since returning from injury in week ten, he has at least six combined tackles in four of five games. In the three contests since the team's week twelve bye, he is 17-4 with a pass breakup and is coming off a season-best 7-2 versus Washington. The Packers are stingy with splash plays but give up decent tackle totals to safeties on most weeks. Considering that Harris doesn't make splash plays anyway, he has a fairly high floor but a limited ceiling in this one.  

Guru's IDP Notes: New York Giants

With Tyler Nubin on IR, I called out Dane Belton as a sleeper target for last week. While I expected quality numbers from him, even I was shocked when he piled up 7-8-1 and a pass breakup. With safeties averaging fifteen tackles and a turnover per game against them, the Falcons have been a stellar matchup for the position since week nine. Between last week's breakout and the great matchup, there will be plenty of managers starting Belton this week, including myself. That said, it is hard to gauge the effect of Atlanta's quarterback change on this situation so there is risk. Belton also has a questionable tag early in the week due to a sore knee. He was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice.   

Guru's IDP Notes: New York Jets

Jalen Mills landed on IR Wednesday with a broken collarbone. Tony Adams moved back into the lineup, going 4-3 on roughly 70% of the snaps. The Rams have been a poor matchup for safeties all season and that has not changed over the last five games.

While we should stay away from Jets safeties, putting one of their corners in your lineup could be a game-winner. The Rams passing game is clicking and it shows in the stats of those they have played recently. Since week nine, the opponent's corners are averaging 12 tackles, 5 assists, 2.5 passes defended, and half a turnover. Most offenses will avoid throwing to anyone covered by Sauce Gardner. The Rams will throw to Puka Nacua regardless of who is defending.

While this could lead to Gardner's most productive game of the season, the player I'm watching here is D.J. Reed. Reed has a history of quality tackle production and had at least four solo stops in five straight games before missing last week with a sore groin. He returned to practice early this week and is on track to play.

Quinnen Williams left last week's game with a hamstring injury and has not practiced as of Wednesday.

Guru's IDP Notes: Philadelphia Eagles

It has been feast or famine for Nolan Smith Jr. His role was expanded coming out of the team's week five bye. He has five and a half sacks over the last ten games with double-digit points in half of them. In the other five outings, however, Smith has 13 total points. With the Commanders surrendering 20 sacks over their last five games including eight to the Saints last week, it could be time for Smith to eat.  

Unlike his counterpart, there has been no famine for Josh Sweat who has eight sacks in the last ten games with at least eight fantasy points in seven of them. I like his chances of adding to the sack total in this one and would not be surprised if he turns in his second multi-sack game of the season. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers faithful got a scare last week when T.J. Watt went down holding his foot in pain. The team dodged a bullet as the injury turned out to be a less serious low ankle sprain. Watt is practicing this week albeit on a limited basis. He had three solo tackles and a sack in the first meeting with Baltimore back in week eleven.

The Ravens are a below-average matchup for edge defenders in general. All of the defensive line positions tend to make quality tackle contributions with this matchup but the Ravens are allowing less than two total sacks per game and just .6 to the edge position since week nine. That said, throw out all such statistics when these two division rivals meet. Cameron Heyward had four combined stops and two batted passes the the first meeting. Alex Highsmith missed that game but is red hot right now. In his last three games, Smith is 12-3-4 with an average of almost 16 points per game.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Seattle Seahawks

Ernest Jones IV has been a model of consistency since joining the Seahawks. In nine games, his lowest production was a 5-0 with a pass breakup for nine fantasy points back in week seven. Since that time he has at least six solo stops and/or ten combined in every game. We are, however, still awaiting that one game where Jones goes off. This week's matchup with the Vikings could be the trigger that makes it happen. No team has allowed more points to linebackers since week nine. Over that span, opponents' linebacker positions are averaging 12 tackles, 7 assists, 1.2 splash plays, and a pass defended. For all the same reasons, Tyrice Knight should also be in starting lineups this week. 

Guru's IDP Notes: San Francisco 49ers

When a player is the caliber of Fred Warner, he can't be held down forever. Warner broke out of an ugly slump in a big way and he did it against a team that had been a poor matchup for much of the season. The Rams are one of those teams that is not the same as they were early on. Matthew Stafford completed just 16 passes for 160 yards while Kyren Williams carried 29 for 108, doing much of that damage on runs between the tackles. The result was a whopping 15 stops for Warner. The gamble this week will be does Warner revert back to the guy who put up fewer than seven points in each of the previous four games, or the one who racked up almost 19 last week? Based on the fact that he is one of the best linebackers in the game, and the matchup with Miami, I'll be rolling the dice with Warner this week. Over the last five weeks, five linebackers have totaled at least ten combined stops against the Dolphins, including Jamien Sherwood who went 13-5 two weeks ago.

Dre Greenlaw started and played full-time through the first half last week. He looked great but tapped out when soreness started creeping in. The good news is that he did not suffer a setback. While his return to fantasy prominence seems inevitable, starting him at this point is a huge risk.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I am officially done with trying to figure out the Buccaneers secondary this year. Christian Izien played 83% of the snaps, working mostly over the slot. Tykee Smith and Kaevon Merriweather were the starting safeties. Smith played 83% of the snaps and Merriweather never left the field. The trio combined for three tackles and an assist. Meanwhile, street free agent addition Ryan Neal played nine snaps at safety and was 2-1. The moral of this story is, unless Antoine Winfield Jr is back, avoid this mess altogether.

J.J. Russell worked as the second linebacker and was 3-1 on 60% of the action. Vi Jones recorded two tackles and a forced fumble but did it on special teams. There is some hope that Winfield and K.J. Britt might be available for the matchup with Dallas but neither player participated in practice on Wednesday.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Tennessee Titans

The Titans have thrown us some curveballs this year, including last week when Jerome Baker was a surprise healthy scratch. Luke Gifford (5-3 Int.) and Kenneth Murray Jr. (5-2) were the starters. Both were banged up and missed snaps. Gifford landed in concussion protocol and Murray is not practicing on Wednesday as he nurses a sore hamstring. With Otis Reese IV working through a sore ankle, Baker could be the team's lead linebacker against the Colts.  

With five solo stops and an interception, Daryl Worley continues to be productive. Unfortunately, he picked up a calf injury along the way and joined the linebackers in the treatment room while the rest of the team practiced on Wednesday. If Worley is out, Mike Brown should return to the lineup.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Washington Commanders

The Eagles have evolved into a run-first, run-often offense that is a strong matchup for linebackers. That may not be enough to make Bobby Wagner a worthy starter in crunch time. Wagner has not reached six solo stops in a game since week six and has double-digit points in two of the last eight games. He was a modest 4-4 when these teams met in week eleven.

It has been an up-and-down season for Jeremy Chinn. The kind that drives fantasy managers mad because there is no rhyme or reason to help us decide when to start him. After his 5-2-1 versus New Orleans, the decision would be a difficult one in a weak matchup. It could be made for us, though. Chinn is in concussion protocol but just like everything else about him this year, it is not a clear-cut situation. He was listed as a limited participant on Wednesday, which generally signals that a player is close to being cleared. Good luck to you if you are forced to decide on this one. I have him in a few leagues and honestly have not made a decision yet.

That does it for the week 16 offering. Best of luck in those semi-final matchups. I hope to have everyone back for just one more.   

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