As we enter March, the dynasty offseason will finally start to heat up. Free agency will change the landscape, especially with so much still to be determined at quarterback and with some big-time wide receivers set to potentially hit the market. We also are entering what will be a weird draft season that will lack the typical buildup we have come to expect. There is still time to better position yourself for what should be another very strong rookie class.
In this month’s dynasty trade value, we will go deeper on:
- The sweet spot for value in 2021 rookie drafts.
- Where we might see big value swings at quarterback.
- The big picture at the running back position.
- A look at which running backs have had a value boost over the last month.
- The free-agent wide receiver class.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
2021 Rookie Pick Values
|
Pick
|
Start-1-QB Value
|
Superflex Value
|
|
1.01
|
34
|
45
|
|
1.02
|
31
|
36
|
|
1.03
|
28
|
34
|
|
1.04
|
26
|
30
|
|
1.05
|
24
|
28
|
|
1.06
|
22
|
27
|
|
1.07
|
19
|
26
|
|
1.08
|
16
|
24
|
|
1.09
|
15
|
23
|
|
1.10
|
14
|
20
|
|
1.11
|
13
|
18
|
|
1.12
|
12
|
16
|
|
2.01
|
11
|
15
|
|
2.02
|
10
|
14
|
|
2.03
|
9
|
13
|
|
2.04
|
9
|
11
|
|
2.05
|
8
|
10
|
|
2.06
|
8
|
9
|
|
2.07
|
8
|
9
|
|
2.08
|
8
|
9
|
|
2.09
|
7
|
8
|
|
2.10
|
7
|
8
|
|
2.11
|
7
|
8
|
|
2.12
|
7
|
8
|
|
3.06
|
5
|
6
|
|
4.06
|
3
|
4
|
Looking for the sweet spot
Prior to 2020 rookie drafts, we talked often about how loaded the second round would be and theorized those picks were being undervalued. In the superflex format, the second-round options usually included Jalen Hurts, Antonio Gibson, A.J. Dillon, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, and Laviska Shenault (amongst others). If you targeted extra picks in the second round during the lead-up to the draft, you probably ended up quite happy with the results.
Where might the sweet spot be in terms of value in the 2021 class and what picks will carry more value than expected?
The view from here is that the first round is loaded from top-to-bottom, especially in superflex drafts. The best bang for your buck if you are trying to acquire rookie draft picks is in the late first round. That looks to be the sweet spot where there are still going to be some fantastic talents available. You should be looking to acquire those late 1st round picks, even if it means paying a slight premium over where the market currently values them. Let’s again put some names to picks in a superflex rookie draft. Here are 12 players who should carry some serious dynasty value when it comes time for rookie drafts (by position):
Quarterback (4)
The quarterback class could be a special group for fantasy purposes. Trevor Lawrence is one of the best quarterback prospects in recent memory. He is not quite as solidly built as Josh Allen but has everything else physically that has made Allen a fantasy star. He will likely be more of a runner than many expect. Clemson limited his designed runs in games they were huge favorites, which was almost every week. In the big spots, Lawrence proved a dangerous runner. Justin Fields also has massive fantasy upside, though is riskier. He is built like a strong safety and runs in the 4.4s. Zach Wilson is a gunslinger who is looking like a lock for the Top 10. He too could add at least some fantasy value with his legs. Trey Lance is also a big-time dual-threat prospect likely ticketed for the Top 10 overall who rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns in his breakout 2019 season. We have not had a quarterback class like this with so many elite dual-threat prospects in recent memory.
Running Back (4)
By now, you surely know all about Najee Harris and Travis Etienne. As ultra-productive multi-year starters at Alabama and Clemson, we know what we are getting here. Javonte Williams seems to be building momentum as at least the RB3 in the class. While most still view it as a “big two” at the top, we could see that change with Williams moving right into that top group of guys in terms of the perception of his dynasty value. He has the perfect build and skill set to be a three-down workhorse. We may also need to start including Kenny Gainwell As a first-round rookie pick in these discussions for those who play in the PPR format. Gainwell played ahead of Antonio Gibson at Memphis in 2019 before sitting out in 2020. His ability to split out at wide receiver (51 catches for 610 yards in 2019) means he does not need to be an every-down back to put up big fantasy numbers.
Wide Receiver (3)
While opinions may vary, there are three wide receivers who stand out a bit from the pack. Ja’Marr Chase was LSU’s top wide receiver over Justin Jefferson in 2019. His production (1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2019) was staggering and shattered SEC records. DeVonta Smith put up even more absurd numbers in 2020 (1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns). Jaylen Waddle does not always get mentioned with this top group because he split time with Smith, Jerry Jeudy, and Henry Ruggs as a sophomore and then missed most of his junior season. However, he is an elite athlete with blinding speed and was on his way to a monster year before he got hurt (25-557-3 in four games). Each of these three looks likely to go in the Top 15 overall. In non-superflex leagues, there are at least three more wide receivers who profile as nice first-round rookie draft selections: Rondale Moore, Rashod Bateman, and Kadarius Toney. While the second round of 2021 superflex drafts is not as loaded top-to-bottom as last year, the picks at the very top of round two again look like ones that should be coveted highly.
Tight End (1)
Kyle Pitts could be the dynasty TE2 almost immediately. The prediction here is that he leapfrogs Travis Kelce in trade value by the end of the summer. Yes, that is a lot of hype for a player who has not played a snap yet in the NFL but it is hard not to get enamored with his upside. Remember that Pitts is a full 11 years younger than Kelce. Pitts was lighting SEC defenses on fire early in the 2020 season as a 19-year old.
Rookie Player Values
While most will be focused on the value of picks, we can also start trying to assign preliminary dynasty trade values to actual prospects. Here are the Top 40 rookies (sorted by Superflex value) as we head into March:
|
Rank
|
Player
|
Position
|
Dynasty Value
|
Superflex Value
|
|
1
|
Trevor Lawrence
|
QB
|
15
|
45
|
|
2
|
Justin Fields
|
QB
|
10
|
34
|
|
3
|
Zach Wilson
|
QB
|
9
|
32
|
|
4
|
Najee Harris
|
RB
|
32
|
32
|
|
5
|
Travis Etienne
|
RB
|
31
|
31
|
|
6
|
Ja'Marr Chase
|
WR
|
28
|
28
|
|
7
|
Trey Lance
|
QB
|
8
|
27
|
|
8
|
Javonte Williams
|
RB
|
25
|
25
|
|
9
|
DeVonta Smith
|
WR
|
24
|
24
|
|
10
|
Kyle Pitts
|
TE
|
24
|
24
|
|
11
|
Jaylen Waddle
|
WR
|
21
|
21
|
|
12
|
Kenny Gainwell
|
RB
|
18
|
18
|
|
13
|
Rondale Moore
|
WR
|
16
|
16
|
|
14
|
Mac Jones
|
QB
|
4
|
16
|
|
15
|
Rashod Bateman
|
WR
|
15
|
15
|
|
16
|
Kadarius Toney
|
WR
|
12
|
12
|
|
17
|
Terrace Marshall
|
WR
|
10
|
10
|
|
18
|
Michael Carter
|
RB
|
10
|
10
|
|
19
|
Trey Sermon
|
RB
|
9
|
9
|
|
20
|
D'Wayne Eskridge
|
WR
|
9
|
9
|
|
21
|
Tutu Atwell
|
WR
|
9
|
9
|
|
22
|
Elijah Moore
|
WR
|
9
|
9
|
|
23
|
Tylan Wallace
|
WR
|
8
|
8
|
|
24
|
Dyami Brown
|
WR
|
8
|
8
|
|
25
|
Amon-Ra St. Brown
|
WR
|
8
|
8
|
|
26
|
Chuba Hubbard
|
RB
|
7
|
7
|
|
27
|
Pat Freiermuth
|
TE
|
7
|
7
|
|
28
|
Amari Rodgers
|
WR
|
7
|
7
|
|
29
|
Shi Smith
|
WR
|
7
|
7
|
|
30
|
Seth Williams
|
WR
|
6
|
6
|
|
31
|
Brevin Jordan
|
TE
|
6
|
6
|
|
32
|
Sage Surratt
|
WR
|
6
|
6
|
|
33
|
Cornell Powell
|
WR
|
6
|
6
|
|
34
|
Marquez Stevenson
|
WR
|
5
|
5
|
|
35
|
Kylin Hill
|
RB
|
5
|
5
|
|
36
|
Rhamondre Stevenson
|
RB
|
5
|
5
|
|
37
|
Nico Collins
|
WR
|
5
|
5
|
|
38
|
Trevon Grimes
|
WR
|
4
|
4
|
|
39
|
Javian Hawkins
|
RB
|
4
|
4
|
|
40
|
Demetric Felton
|
RB
|
4
|
4
|
Quarterback
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Superflex
|
Single-QB
|
|
1
|
60
|
30
|
|
|
2
|
50
|
25
|
|
|
3
|
47
|
24
|
|
|
4
|
46
|
23
|
|
|
5
|
45
|
22
|
|
|
6
|
44
|
20
|
|
|
7
|
42
|
17
|
|
|
8
|
40
|
14
|
|
|
9
|
35
|
13
|
|
|
10
|
28
|
10
|
|
|
11
|
26
|
11
|
|
|
12
|
26
|
10
|
|
|
13
|
24
|
7
|
|
|
14
|
23
|
5
|
|
|
15
|
22
|
5
|
|
|
16
|
20
|
4
|
|
|
17
|
18
|
4
|
|
|
18
|
15
|
4
|
|
|
19
|
14
|
5
|
|
|
20
|
13
|
2
|
|
|
21
|
12
|
2
|
|
|
22
|
12
|
3
|
|
|
23
|
11
|
1
|
|
|
24
|
11
|
1
|
|
|
25
|
9
|
1
|
|
|
26
|
8
|
1
|
|
|
27
|
7
|
2
|
|
|
28
|
6
|
0
|
|
|
29
|
6
|
0
|
|
|
30
|
5
|
1
|
|
|
31
|
5
|
1
|
|
|
32
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
5
|
0
|
|
33
|
3
|
0
|
|
|
34
|
Taylor Heiecke
|
3
|
0
|
Wilson Drama
The uncertainty surrounding Russell Wilson and the Seahawks came seemingly out of nowhere over the last couple of months. From a dynasty value perspective, this development has more upside than downside. If Wilson ends up staying in Seattle, he has made clear he is not amenable to a run-heavy offensive approach and has put added pressure on the front office to improve the surrounding offensive talent. If he is traded, it will likely be to a team willing to employ a more pass-heavy approach to keep Wilson happy. The best possible landing spot would be New Orleans. Playing a dome for Sean Payton and throwing to Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Co. is a dream scenario for Wilson’s dynasty trade value.
In Limbo
We know the next two months are going to be wild in terms of value swings at the quarterback position. There are only 20 or so quarterbacks fully locked into starting jobs with their current teams right now. That leaves a dozen teams with real uncertainty at the position.
The following quarterbacks are likely to see value swings in one direction or the other by the time the musical chairs of player movement wraps up with the NFL Draft in April:
Jalen Hurts has been the biggest value winner at the position since the end of the 2020 season. The trade of Carson Wentz makes Hurts the heavy favorite to be the Eagles starting quarterback in 2021. So why does Hurts appear on this list? He still needs to dodge a bullet in the draft before we should feel comfortable valuing Hurts as a top dynasty quarterback. The Eagles earned the 6th overall pick via some glaringly obvious Week 17 tanking in a draft where at least four quarterbacks are expected to go in the Top 10 overall. If the Eagles instead choose to add to the offense with a player like Ja’Marr Chase, Hurts could continue to see his value skyrocket this offseason. His rushing ability gives him massive fantasy upside.
Tua Tagovailoa is likely the starter for the Dolphins next season but his starting spot seems less secure than the general public seems to think. His 6.26 yards per attempt as a rookie ranked 37th of 44 passers who attempted 100+ passes. Tagovailoa needs to get better. He turns 23-years old in March, so there is plenty of time for improvement. The risk versus reward proposition here makes his 4th-round Superflex startup ADP tough to justify.
Jameis Winston was a victim of the quarterback musical chairs game last season, being forced to settle for a near-minimum contract with the Saints. He seems to be in higher demand this offseason. Winston’s best option may be a return to the Saints (assuming a big move for Russell Wilson doesn’t happen) where he could compete against Taysom Hill for the starting job.
Sam Darnold being the starting quarterback for the Jets in 2021 would be a mild upset at this point. It seems the Jets are more likely to start over with another young quarterback. That does not mean Darnold won’t be starting somewhere, however. He could be the next in a long line of players to struggle while under the tutelage of Adam Gase and then go on to find more success later (e.g. Ryan Tannehill).
Drew Lock made little progress in his second season and is very much on the hot seat. The best thing he has going for him is the fact the top quarterbacks in the draft are not likely to make it to Denver at No. 9. However, a trade-up would be a possibility. Denver could also be a landing spot for a player like Darnold or Tagovailoa if their teams decide to cut bait.
Taysom Hill is making low-end starting quarterback money in 2021. However, the Saints are in the quarterback market. A best-case scenario for Hill may be the Saints missing out on the elite options and allowing him to compete with someone like Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick for the starting job. It is also worth noting Drew Brees has yet to officially announce his retirement.
Teddy Bridgewater had a chance to prove himself as the franchise guy for the Panthers last season. All indications are he failed to do so. The Panthers have reportedly been extremely aggressive in trying to upgrade at the position. It is best to assume Bridgewater will be backing someone up next year but a change of scenes (New Orleans?) and another chance to compete to start is still an outside possibility.
Running Back
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
48
|
|
|
2
|
45
|
|
|
3
|
45
|
|
|
4
|
42
|
|
|
5
|
40
|
|
|
6
|
38
|
|
|
7
|
DAndre Swift
|
38
|
|
8
|
36
|
|
|
9
|
34
|
|
|
10
|
33
|
|
|
11
|
32
|
|
|
12
|
32
|
|
|
13
|
29
|
|
|
14
|
29
|
|
|
15
|
27
|
|
|
16
|
27
|
|
|
17
|
27
|
|
|
18
|
27
|
|
|
19
|
25
|
|
|
20
|
23
|
|
|
21
|
A.J. Dillon
|
18
|
|
22
|
15
|
|
|
23
|
12
|
|
|
24
|
11
|
|
|
25
|
Melvin Gordon
|
11
|
|
26
|
10
|
|
|
27
|
10
|
|
|
28
|
9
|
|
|
29
|
Zach Moss
|
9
|
|
30
|
9
|
|
|
31
|
8
|
|
|
32
|
8
|
|
|
33
|
7
|
|
|
34
|
7
|
|
|
35
|
7
|
|
|
36
|
6
|
|
|
37
|
6
|
|
|
38
|
KeShawn Vaughn
|
6
|
|
39
|
Darrell Henderson
|
6
|
|
40
|
6
|
|
|
41
|
5
|
|
|
42
|
5
|
|
|
43
|
5
|
|
|
44
|
5
|
|
|
45
|
Jeffrey Wilson
|
5
|
|
46
|
4
|
|
|
47
|
4
|
|
|
48
|
4
|
|
|
49
|
3
|
|
|
50
|
LeVeon Bell
|
3
|
|
51
|
3
|
|
|
52
|
Benny Snell
|
3
|
|
53
|
LaMical Perine
|
2
|
|
54
|
2
|
The Big Picture
For what seems like the first time in many years, we have almost 20 running backs we can feel confident in having fantasy-friendly roles next season. There are fewer top backs on the free-agent market this offseason (Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, Leonard Fournette, and Kenyan Drake are the main names) and there are only three running backs currently projected to go in the first couple rounds of the NFL Draft. All this makes for the deepest dynasty pool of talent at the position in recent memory. We are seeing the early rounds of most startup drafts dominated by running backs (especially in non-superflex) with so many talented young backs safely ensconced in productive roles.
The relative depth also means there is slightly less of a premium on the top guys. If you miss out on the top ten or fifteen guys, there are still some very productive young backs available. For example, Joe Mixon is locked in as the clear lead back for an ascending young Bengals offense and does not turn 25-years old until this summer. He’d have been a first-round pick with that profile a few years ago but the depth at the position has caused him to fall into the 5th or 6th-round of many recent superflex startups.
Recent Movers
There has been little news over the last month so values have not changed much since the last update. The following players have made minor moves:
- Saquon Barkley: Predictably, Barkley has begun to inch back up towards the top of the positional ADP. This is a big-time talent who just turned 24-years old. The injury robbed him of a year of his prime but also saved him from some wear and tear.
- DAndre Swift: The coaching changes in Detroit seem likely to give Swift a big boost. This recent quote from newly hired running backs coach Duce Staley is easy to get excited about:
“A lot of people think you got to go have 20 carries as a running back to be successful, and sometimes you do. But, touches, when you have a good back, an electrifying back, touches are definitely more important. You can get 18 carries and seven touches as far as receptions, and you have 25 touches, which is what you want from your star back. When I look at D’Andre (Swift), I do think he’s a three-down back, and like I said, he has some special traits I can’t wait to get my hands on. So, I’m excited about that.”
- A.J. Dillon: Dillon has seen his value continue to creep up as free agency approaches and Aaron Jones appears closer and closer to leaving Green Bay. The Packers are tight against the cap and a high-priced running back may simply be out of the budget. If we reach the summer and Dillon is still the clear favorite to start at running back, he could see his dynasty value make another solid leap.