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See the RB Role Matrix here.
This series distills NFL charts into easily digestible fantasy football information for opportunity and upside. In this installment, wide receivers are the featured position.
The Good
The optimal trio of traits for high-end fantasy wide receivers is the receiver talent level, strong quarterback attachment, and a lack of competition for wide receiver targets. Here is the list of offenses and receivers to qualify:
This quintet has minimal concerns about any of the three qualifiers. Hopkins has the most questionable quarterback of the bunch as Kyler Murray has been an average-ish NFL passer to date while fueling his fantasy stature with his rushing prowess. Having multiple of these receivers is an optimal duo for 2021 fantasy rosters.
Both Adams and Thomas have some aspect of quarterback risk but qualify in spades as an elite fantasy option. Will Aaron Rodgers ultimately play for Green Bay this season? As for Thomas, Jameis Winston has fueled strong fantasy production in the past with Tampa Bay but has job security questions two seasons removed (and one team removed) from his last stable stint as a starter.
- Buccaneers
- Rams
- Vikings
- Cowboys
- Steelers
- Seahawks
All six depth charts quality with quarterback play and wide receiver talent. However, there is some question with the wide receiver target split or pecking order. These passing games may offer two top-12 options in a best-case or at least multiple top-24 options. In Tampa Bay (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown), each receiver seeing 100+ targets is a reasonable projection, and no single receiver may see more than 125 targets. For Dallas, Amari Cooper may be a late ramp-up to the season with a still-recovering ankle.
Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are all threats for the Top 40 for cross-sections of the season at full strength. The same construction applies in Pittsburgh with three strong wide receivers, a non-elite tight end presence, and potentially strong quarterback play to fuel the trio of receivers. Who is the WR1 of the group? The result is a likely top-12 fantasy option, and the secondary receiver could easily be a top-18 play. While the Seahawks pecking order for WR1 and WR2 is contested between Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf for the most targets, both are strong projections, paired with Russell Wilson and without a clear WR3 to siphon work.
The Bad
- Bengals
- Panthers
- Browns
- Broncos
- Colts
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
- Jets
The Bengals are potentially loaded at wide receiver with JaMarr Chase added to Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, who are already off to quality career starts. Joe Burrow is a variable to support the trio, and Chase is an incoming rookie. Burrow was a mid-QB2 last season, which is not optimal for historical odds to produce a top-12 fantasy receiver and multiple top-24 outcomes among the trio would also be a historical surprise. The best possibility here is that Cincinnati could be Steelers or Cowboys-like depending on Burrow's ability to facilitate the potential from the weaponry.
The Panthers lack clarity for the WR1 between Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore. Add in the variable of Sam Darnold and Terrace Marshall's strong Day 2 profile to be relevant as a rookie, and this unit lacks top-12 probability. The depth chart could tilt towards balanced producers through the WR2-3-4 fantasy zones.
The Browns are in a similar boat with Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, both highly productive profiles but fighting for even top-30 fantasy receiver status considering the run-centric Cleveland offense and Baker Mayfield being lackluster as a fantasy facilitator does not help either's upside.
Denver is loaded in the passing game with Courtland Sutton returning from injury, Jerry Jeudy coming off a promising career start, and Noah Fant a noteworthy tight end. However, quarterbacking is a significant question mark, with Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock lacking any shown upside to date. This may be a clarified pecking order in 2022 with Sutton possibly/likely gone and an added quarterback, but 2021 is far murkier.
Indianapolis is in the Bad category, but Ugly is within grasp as well. T.Y. Hilton is on the clear downside from his career peak, Parris Campbell was off to a promising Week 1 start last year before his injury, and Michael Pittman picked up the Campbell slack later in the season. Carson Wentz is at a career crossroads with one quality season under his belt, but that was three years ago. If Wentz does not revert to form, this has Ugly makings with no receiver in the top-30 or even top-40.
The Jaguars have a rookie quarterback, which typically limits the fantasy output to something in the QB18-28 zone for fantasy finishes, even from the draft's 1.01. D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones, and Laviska Shenault have ambiguity regarding the trio's pecking order, and the WR1 here could still be outside the top-24 due to a rookie quarterback and a depth chart split. If the defense struggles, that would be good news for the passing game as having Travis Etienne, James Robinson, and Carlos Hyde points to a robust run game if Jacksonville can hang in games for the second halves of contests.
Tua Tagovailoa is the lynchpin for Miami as the weapons are ready to go. DeVante Parker is the incumbent (along with Preston Williams), adding Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller this offseason. Fuller is a good fit with Tagovailoa's downfield prowess at Alabama. Will Waddle be an early impact? Is Parker left out with the new wave of talent on the depth chart? There's Good category potential here if Tagovailoa shows more than his hodge-podge of opportunities last season. Worst case? Tagovailoa plays his way out of 2022 starting job confidence and none of the receivers finish in the top-30 this year.
Finally, the Jets have bolstered a poor collection of wide receivers from a year ago but are hinging their results in the passing game on a rookie quarterback. Corey Davis was a significant free-agent signing, and Elijah Moore was drafted early in Round 2. Zach Wilson has strong arm talent as a potential early impact, but the typical rookie outcome is historically lackluster compared to Year 2 and beyond from a developing quarterback.
The (Potentially) Ugly
- Ravens
- Lions
- Texans
- Raiders
- Patriots
- Eagles
Marquise Brown has been anything but the answer for Baltimore in their WR1 search over the past two seasons. Enter Sammy Watkins in free agency, Rashod Bateman in Round 1, and Tyler Wallace in Round 4. Baltimore has also recently spent Day 2 capital on Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay. Will Lamar Jackson develop as a more consistent passer? Will the emphasis on a supporting cast unlock Jackson and the passing game? Until shown, it's tough to expect a changing Baltimore offense. Mark Andrews is the de facto WR1 until further notice, and we even have upside questions for J.K. Dobbins due to a lack of receiving upside in this offensive construct.
Detroit addressed the wide receiver position this offseason - after losing stalwarts Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones - by bringing in veterans Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman and drafting Amon-Ra St.Brown on Day 3. With Jared Goff in career reclamation mode post-Sean McVay and T.J. Hockenson one of the few tight ends in the NFL to be a team's de factor WR1, this has the makings of an ugly outcome for the wide receivers. Williams has the best profile of production in the NFL, but even a top-36 season would be a surprise outcome from Williams or the ultimate WR1.
The Texans have a distinct possibility of seeing zero 2021 starts from Deshaun Watson. This is a game-changing shift for the upside of the offense overall. With Watson, Brandin Cooks has top-12 best-case upside with top-30 highly likely. Without Watson, Cooks shifts down at least 15-20 spots with downside from there. Houston's offense (and team) has bloodbath fantasy potential sans Watson.
The Raiders have a myriad of wide receiver questions, and Darren Waller is another case of a WR1 from the tight end position. Henry Ruggs was a disappointment in Year 1, considering his top-10 draft position. Bryan Edwards flashed, but durability thwarted any opportunity for momentum. John Brown was the big addition this offseason, but durability has been a watchword for the veteran. All this on a team content to lean on the running back, which strongly added Kenyan Drake to workhorse Josh Jacobs already in the starting role.
New England has questions all over the offense with Cam Newton and a Round 1 quarterback (Mac Jones), signing two notable tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, and bringing in Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne to a previously barren wide receiver corps. The WR1 on the offense might still be behind both tight ends. A bottom-10 quarterback producer can easily weigh this offense down.
Jalen Hurts is far more likely to be a rushing-centric fantasy producer than a big-time passing distributor. Jalen Reagor and Devonta Smith both have Round 1 pedigree, but Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz (if he bounces back health-wise and is still on the team come Week 1) could be the top-2 options. Hurts has a minimal leash and the tight end presence here is a buzzkill to any strong upside even if there is Reagor vs. Smith clarity in the wide receiver pecking order.
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