Targets and goal line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries is nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.

• HLO RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
• Actual: Fantasy points Ranking through High-Leverage Opportunity Touches
• HLO/G: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
• GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
• TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets

Overachievers

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore was also on this list last year. Another trend over the years is that Derrick Henry has been one of the select few overachievers compared to his team's HLO ranking. While Henry is not a strong target-earning option, he produces big plays. Also, Baltimore converted a high rate of goal-line carries. 

Buffalo Bills

James Cook was a significant overachieving running back this season. Despite having a weak overall split of the backfield for a lead back, Cook benefitted from the No.4 actual production HLO in Buffalo. The Bills were easily the top overachieving HLO team, almost 50% above expectation. Ray Davis is a key injury-away option for 2025.

Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs and Green Bay produced more fantasy points than the average HLO for their goal-line carries and running back targets. Jacobs was a key upgrade situationally from Las Vegas to Green Bay, upgrading offense quality and quarterback and going from 17th in goal-line carries with Las Vegas last season to No.2 with the Packers in 2024. Marshawn Lloyd will be a key injury-away option in 2025, pending his health and availability.

Underachievers

New Orleans Saints

After a No.3 finish in targets in 2023, Alvin Kamara and the Saints were No.1 this season. New Orleans underperformed by nearly 20% on their targets and earning just 11 goal-line carries on the season does not help matters. Kamara is locked into the roster considering his dead cap for 2025, but the situation continues to erode around him. Kendre Miller struggled in his limited time while healthy this season as well.

Carolina Panthers

In total HLO PPG lost, Carolina is at the top of the list for 2024. Despite the strong season for Chuba Hubbard, the average result would have been 22% better and nearly two points per game higher. Most of that deficit was through the air on their targets. Jonathon Brooks likely being out for the entire 2025 season bodes well for Chuba Hubbard and also points to Carolina bolstering the depth chart this offseason.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Despite producing a meager 8.9 HLO PPG on the season, Jacksonville also underperformed by 15%. Adding to the poor year for the backfield, neither Travis Etienne Jr. nor Tank Bigsby made many clarified starts without the other or quality outings. Bigsby has yet to show much in the passing game, and Etienne battled through injuries much of the year, even when active.