The New Reality No.233: Early 2025 NFL Draft Prospects

From dynasty team-building and player evaluations to NFL research and forecasting, Chad Parsons covers dynasty fantasy football's landscape in The New Reality.

Chad Parsons's The New Reality No.233: Early 2025 NFL Draft Prospects Chad Parsons Published 01/01/2025

With the fantasy football season complete and the NFL shifting firmly to playoff mode, dynasty teams shift to 2025 NFL Draft mode with rookie drafts in a few months as the next critical item on the to-do list. Here is an early look at the analytics of the 2025 class across the skill positions:

*Data included reference Chad Parsons' projection model, designed to improve the probability of predicting skill position prospects to produce fantasy starter seasons in the NFL*

With the declaration deadline not until mid-January, some of the non-senior prospects mentioned here may end up returning to school.

© Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Quarterbacks

  • Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

With Drew Allar (Penn State) returning to school, Shedeur Sanders projects as the top option in terms of passing score in the model at 98%. The key factor for Sanders from the fantasy lens will be rushing upside. Without it, Sanders will have a tough time competing with the top quarterbacks in the NFL. His 32% rushing score is significantly below the elite-ideal threshold historically of 60% to project a strong upside as an NFL runner. 

  • Cam Ward, Miami
  • Jaxson Dart, Mississippi
  • Jalen Milroe, Alabama
  • Carson Beck, Georgia
  • Quinn Ewers, Texas

Cam Ward is a name consistently projected high in Round 1 by early pundits. Ward has a weak model score, however, as he checks none of the ideal boxes and lacks the rushing upside, just like Shedeur Sanders. If Ward were to go in the top 10 of the draft, he would be the weakest model prospect since Daniel Jones and Josh Rosen.

The rest are covered with warts with Jalen Milroe a rushing-centric but passing project if he comes out this year. Jaxson Dart is underrated, considering his lack of national media attention, but he has a quality combination of 74% passing score and 55% rushing score in the model. Carson Beck eroded this year to a 28% passing score, previously a quality passing-centric option. Beck looks like the classic Round 3-4 selection without much fantasy upside. Quinn Ewers is similar and also without rushing upside. 

Running Backs

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  • Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

The crown jewel of the entire draft class is Ashton Jeanty. His 98% model score and elite two-way profile are paired with ideal size and athleticism. In the model, Jeanty projects similarly to Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, likely matching their top-half Round 1 NFL Draft pedigree.

  • TreyVeon Henderson, Ohio State
  • Quinshon Judkins, Ohio State
  • Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State
  • Omarion Hampton, North Carolina
  • Kaleb Johnson, Iowa
  • Damien Martinez, Miami
  • Dylan Sampson, Tennessee
  • Cameron Skattebo, Arizona State

TreyVeon Henderson was projected to rival Jonathon Brooks as RB1 off the board in the 2024 class but returned to school and is now nearly 23 years old for Week 1, 2025. Durability has been a concern for Henderson, but he has a top 10% score in the model.

Quinshon Judkins has some level of receiving upside concern (55%) but projects as a strong prospect who warrants Day 2 pedigree. The same applies to Ollie Gordon and Omarion Hampton. Kaleb Jackson has the lowest receiving score of the bunch at 24% but is one of the strongest projected athleticism scores in the class. Dylan Sampson is ideally young at 21.0 years old and with elite speed. Damien Martinez has shades of Steven Jackson with his 230-pound frame, strong athleticism, and rushing scores. Cameron Skattebo's combination of 215 pounds and 83% receiving score is among the most intriguing of the class.

Wide Receivers

  • Luther Burden, Missouri
  • Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona

Luther Burden projects on the DJ Moore spectrum with a 99% overall score. Tetairoa McMillan is more of a contested catch maven and one of the prototypically-sized options in the class. It would not be a surprise for both to be drafted in the top half of Round 1, if not in the top 10.

  • Travis Hunter, Colorado
  • Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

Travis Hunter is likely to go very high in Round 1. The biggest wildcard with Hunter is if he will play full-time cornerback, wide receiver, or both in the NFL. Hunter might be a dynasty asset variable until his drafted team is known and possibly until even later in the offseason before his NFL position is clarified. Early rookie drafts will be high leverage when considering Hunter's value.

Emeka Egbuka returned to school in 2024 and is yet another quality Ohio State wide receiver prospect. While not on the level of Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Jr., or Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Egbuka has Round 1 potential and a Day 2 lock.

  • Isaiah Bond, Texas
  • Evan Stewart, Oregon
  • Elic Ayomanor, Stanford

Isaiah Bond had Jaylen Waddle or Xavier Worthy potential entering 2024, but it was a lost season overall. Bond remains a speed merchant, like Evan Stewart, but ending on a low note if declaring for this year's draft. Both are boom-bust prospects. Elic Ayomanor has ideal size and a well-rounded profile. The Stanford product slants toward the contested target profile, which is not ideal, and he aligned on the perimeter 86% of the time, projecting as an outside wide receiver in the NFL.

Tight Ends

  • Colston Loveland, Michigan

Ideally young at 21.4 years old, Loveland has dominated Michigan's passing game for two years and has an elite target-per-route-run. The lone concern during the draft process is the level of Loveland's athleticism. Will he turn out more than Michael Mayer or a better prospect? Loveland has Round 1 potential.

  • Tyler Warren, Penn State

Tyler Warren is one of the more unique prospects with his mammoth size and multi-faceted skill set. In the model, Warren is good but not great, however, and more of a Round 2 prospect than warranting Round 1. 

  • Harold Fannin Jr., Bowling Green
  • Oronde Gadsden II, Syracuse
  • Eli Stowers, Vanderbilt

This trio of sleepers all offers something different. Harold Fannin Jr. has the rare 99% production score, dominating his passing game, and is elite after the catch. Tweener-sized players are a tough subset to project to the NFL, and Fannin is only 230 pounds (listed). Oronde Gadsden is a wide receiver convert. This profile has been consistently intriguing from the fantasy lens in recent years (Elijah Higgins, Juwan Johnson, Darren Waller, etc). Finally, Eli Stowers is a lesser-known name but could rise in prominence. Stowers is a former quarterback and finally a full-time tight end in 2023 and 2024. The result is a 64% production score and an elite after-the-catch profile. 

Final Thoughts

Thanks to all the readers of this feature column in 2024 (and over the years). If you would like to keep up with my content during the NFL Draft season, I host the Under the Helmet Dynasty Show (900+ episodes dating back to 2011) and produce the content (written and hundreds of premium podcasts) at UTHDynasty.com and the associated Patreon platform. NFL Draft season is the lifeblood of dynasty leagues with a year-round approach to dynasty trading, evaluating prospects, positioning in rookie drafts, team-building in startup drafts, and valuation shifts with NFL free agency and the NFL Draft. I will close this season's New Reality series with the tagline I use on my podcasts: Never Settle, Refuse to be Average, and Keep Building Those Dynasties.

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