Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- Prev: Overall Ranking from Last Week
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Seahawks
Ken Walker III returned to the lineup in Week 16 and Seattle ranked No.3 in weekly HLO and is up to No.4 on the season. Zach Charbonnet has enjoyed four clarified starts without Walker in the lineup, producing 22 PPG in those outings. Walker looks like a league winner in Week 17 if their HLO maintains for one more week.
Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs was the workhorse as expected in Week 16 without David Montgomery in the lineup. They have been 10th or better in HLO for six weeks straight, including three of those in the top three of the NFL. Gibbs is a title-winner for Week 17 and do not forget about Sione Vaki as an offseason dynasty stash with Craig Reynolds a slated free agent.
Packers
The Green Bay blowout of New Orleans resulted in the No.3 HLO finish, and Josh Jacobs scored 20 fantasy points in a little more than half a game. Emanuel Wilson piled up production in garbage time as well. Their No.26 finish very much influences Green Bay's No.13 overall ranking on the season in the opening month and No.27 ranking in the second month of the season. In the second half of the season, Green Bay is easily a top-10 HLO offense.
The Bad
Bears
Chicago is arguably the worst HLO offense over the past month with three finishes of 27th or lower over the span. Roschon Johnson returned to the lineup to siphon receiving opportunities away from D'Andre Swift as well. The lone bright spot is the Bears are sixth in goal-line carries, which is a higher variance projection than running back targets.
Colts
Jonathan Taylor's monster Week 16 did not come from strong HLO. Anthony Richardson scored at the goal line to siphon one scoring opportunity from Taylor and the dynamic running back scored twice on long jaunts to the end zone. The team also had zero targets amidst only 11 passes as a team. Indianapolis has one weekly finish better than 16th over the past 10 games.
The Ugly
Rams
Another dismal HLO finish for Kyren Williams and the Rams in Week 16 HLO. Williams is still a high-end fantasy option, but the ceiling is even higher if they were not weak in HLO, which has been the case every year since I began tracking the data in 2019. This has been one of the strongest team-centric trends in HLO over the entire sample size.
The Action Plan
*In Dynasty Leagues*
Collect
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Catch up on all of Chad Parsons' articles here at Footballguys.com.
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Rachel Tootsiepop
