With only the Super Bowl remaining of the 2020 season, the focus soon shifts entirely to 2021 and beyond. For some, the focus has already shifted, and we have some fairly robust early ADP data from actual 2021 fantasy best ball drafts to sift through. The trade market at quarterback has already started to heat up. We are headed toward an unprecedented season of quarterback movement. We also just had the Senior Bowl and NFL Draft season will start to kick into gear (though perhaps less to than normal without an NFL combine). Our dynasty goals this month are to start to nail down rookie and pick values with more accuracy, use early 2021 ADP to look for potential edges, and try to identify some players with hidden dynasty upside over the coming months.
In this month’s article, we will:
- Look at the incoming rookies through the perspective of their 2021 redraft stock and start the process of valuing these players as individuals in addition to valuing specific draft slots.
- Dive into some of the early best ball ADP numbers both to form some early projections for 2021 player values (included in each positional value chart) and to search for other insights.
- Try to look for some low-risk players who could see a nice rise in value over the next couple of months.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
2021 Rookie Picks
For the next few months, we are going to move 2021 rookie picks to the top of our list of topics instead of the bottom. It is important during this time of the dynasty season to really start fixing some potential names to draft picks. Why? Let me give a quick personal example… I recently received a tempting trade offer that involved me giving up a few players and the 1.10 rookie pick (Superflex). My initial reaction was to accept but, before doing so, I wanted to make sure I was looking at it from every angle. Part of that process for me involves actually putting some potential names on the pick(s) involved. In this case, when I looked closer at some players likely to be available in the late-1st round of a Superflex rookie draft (Trey Lance, Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle, Javonte Williams, etc.), I ended up deciding the price was too high and declined. You may not fully appreciate the value of a pick until you try to place a dynasty value on the actual incoming rookies who might be available at that part of the draft.
At this time of year, there are two separate and distinct considerations when it comes to valuing rookies. The first is the actual value of specific players right now. This is especially important in at least a couple of specific circumstances:
- Startup dynasty leagues occurring before the NFL Draft in which you can draft rookies directly.
- Devy leagues where many of these players are actually rostered already.
In addition to these specific use cases, we also want to start the process of valuing these players individually because it is the best way to contextualize the dynasty trade value of our 2021 rookie picks. Do not make a trade involving a rookie pick without at least trying to figure out the few players who are likely to be drafted with the pick. Without at least trying to view the draft pick as an actual soon-to-be-rookie player, you are much more likely to undervalue the pick and make a trade you will end up regretting in a couple of months.
One way to start that process is to start guessing how much 2021 fantasy value these incoming rookies will have. We actually already have some good data with which to do that. New 2021 best-ball drafts are already starting in earnest, and we have some relatively robust ADP information with which to work from Underdog Fantasy. In the below table, we include the redraft ADP and a predicted 2021 fantasy value for each of the 22 rookies who are currently going in the Top 200. We also have assigned initial dynasty trade values for each player for both single quarterback and Superflex leagues.
Rookie Player Values
|
Rank
|
Player
|
Position
|
Redraft ADP
|
2021 Value
|
Dynasty Value
|
Superflex Value
|
|
1
|
Najee Harris
|
RB
|
35
|
5
|
33
|
33
|
|
2
|
Travis Etienne
|
RB
|
36
|
5
|
32
|
32
|
|
3
|
Ja'Marr Chase
|
WR
|
73
|
3
|
28
|
28
|
|
4
|
DeVonta Smith
|
WR
|
74
|
3
|
28
|
28
|
|
5
|
Kyle Pitts
|
TE
|
99
|
2
|
24
|
24
|
|
6
|
Jaylen Waddle
|
WR
|
108
|
2
|
21
|
21
|
|
7
|
Javonte Williams
|
RB
|
84
|
2
|
20
|
20
|
|
8
|
Trevor Lawrence
|
QB
|
89
|
2
|
17
|
45
|
|
9
|
Rondale Moore
|
WR
|
137
|
1
|
14
|
14
|
|
10
|
Rashod Bateman
|
WR
|
140
|
1
|
13
|
13
|
|
11
|
Justin Fields
|
QB
|
131
|
1
|
12
|
34
|
|
12
|
Chuba Hubbard
|
RB
|
116
|
1
|
11
|
11
|
|
13
|
Kenny Gainwell
|
RB
|
123
|
1
|
10
|
10
|
|
14
|
Trey Sermon
|
RB
|
132
|
1
|
10
|
10
|
|
15
|
Terrace Marshall
|
WR
|
173
|
1
|
10
|
10
|
|
16
|
Kadarius Toney
|
WR
|
178
|
1
|
10
|
10
|
|
17
|
D'Wayne Eskridge
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
10
|
10
|
|
18
|
Zach Wilson
|
QB
|
161
|
1
|
9
|
32
|
|
19
|
Tutu Atwell
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
9
|
9
|
|
20
|
Tylan Wallace
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
9
|
9
|
|
22
|
Trey Lance
|
QB
|
185
|
1
|
8
|
28
|
|
21
|
Michael Carter
|
RB
|
173
|
1
|
8
|
8
|
|
23
|
Dyami Brown
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
8
|
8
|
|
24
|
Pat Freiermuth
|
TE
|
NA
|
0
|
8
|
8
|
|
25
|
Elijah Moore
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
8
|
8
|
|
26
|
Kylin Hill
|
RB
|
162
|
1
|
8
|
8
|
|
27
|
Amari Rodgers
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
7
|
7
|
|
28
|
Shi Smith
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
7
|
7
|
|
29
|
Amon-Ra St. Brown
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
7
|
7
|
|
30
|
Seth Williams
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
|
31
|
Brevin Jordan
|
TE
|
NA
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
|
32
|
Trevon Grimes
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
|
33
|
Sage Surratt
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
|
34
|
Marquez Stevenson
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
|
35
|
Rhamondre Stevenson
|
RB
|
187
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
|
36
|
Javian Hawkins
|
RB
|
198
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
|
37
|
Nico Collins
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
|
38
|
Cornell Powell
|
WR
|
NA
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
|
39
|
Hunter Long
|
TE
|
NA
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
|
40
|
Mac Jones
|
QB
|
NA
|
0
|
4
|
16
|
Redraft ADP Takeaways
- Trevor Lawrence is already going off the board as the QB9, right between Russell Wilson (QB8) and Joe Burrow (QB10) in redraft. This is not too far from how Kyler Murray was being valued in best ball drafts at the same time two years ago. At the time, Murray could be bought at a massive discount in dynasty. The same dynamic does not seem to be playing out with Lawrence, who is being more properly valued as an elite dynasty asset already. Though, it is worth noting that he seems to be falling further than he should in single quarterback rookie mock drafts.
- There is a big gap between the top two backs and the rest of the pack. Best ball drafters are already selecting Najee Harris and Travis Etienne right alongside Miles Sanders, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Joe Mixon, and David Montgomery as high-end RB2s. Jonathan Taylor and DAndre Swift were being drafted similarly in best ball drafts at this time last offseason.
- Javonte Williams is currently viewed as the clear rookie RB3, going off the board multiple rounds before the next group of rookie backs. He is kind of in a tier by himself at this point. The next tier includes Chuba Hubbard, Kenny Gainwell, and Trey Sermon.
- Best-ball drafters are excited about JaMarr Chase and DeVonta Smith. Both are going off the board in best ball earlier than any rookie wide receivers were last season. They are being valued in the same range in redraft as more proven commodities like Courtland Sutton, Will Fuller, Tyler Boyd, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Deebo Samuel.
- Like Javonte Williams, Jaylen Waddle is currently in his own tier. He’s going off the board a couple of rounds after Smith and Chase but also a couple rounds ahead of the next tier of rookie wide receivers.
- Kyle Pitts is already being drafted as a fantasy TE1 for the 2021 season. He is going off the board ahead of veterans like Mike Gesicki, Evan Engram, and Jonnu Smith. Given the steep learning curve at tight end, it is pretty amazing he is going off the board as a Top 100 overall pick in early best ball drafts.
Rookie Pick Values
|
Pick Area
|
Single-QB Value
|
Superflex Value
|
|
1.01
|
35
|
45
|
|
1.02
|
30
|
36
|
|
1.03
|
28
|
35
|
|
1.04
|
26
|
30
|
|
1.05
|
24
|
28
|
|
1.06
|
21
|
27
|
|
1.07
|
18
|
26
|
|
1.08
|
16
|
25
|
|
1.09
|
14
|
24
|
|
1.10
|
13
|
21
|
|
1.11
|
12
|
19
|
|
1.12
|
11
|
16
|
|
2.01
|
10
|
14
|
|
2.02
|
9
|
13
|
|
2.03
|
9
|
12
|
|
2.04
|
9
|
11
|
|
2.05
|
8
|
10
|
|
2.06
|
8
|
9
|
|
2.07
|
8
|
9
|
|
2.08
|
8
|
9
|
|
2.09
|
7
|
8
|
|
2.10
|
7
|
8
|
|
2.11
|
7
|
8
|
|
2.12
|
7
|
8
|
|
3.06
|
5
|
6
|
|
4.06
|
3
|
4
|
While the above player values are a necessary starting point for accurately valuing 2021 rookie picks, they are not going to be exactly the same in all cases. For example, we currently have Najee Harris valued at 33 and Travis Etienne valued at 30 points. However, we are valuing the 1.01 at 35 and the 1.02 at 30. On the surface, this may not make a lot of sense. However, we have to remember to view and value these rookie picks right now as options that we will cash in a few months from now when we have additional information. It may be close to a coin flip right now between Harris and Etienne right now but that may not be the case after the NFL Draft. Thus, there is a bit of a trade premium on 1.01 over 1.02 even if there doesn’t seem to be much of a gap between the top two today.
Quarterback
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
2021 Value
|
Superflex Value
|
Single-QB Value
|
|
1
|
6
|
58
|
34
|
|
|
2
|
5
|
50
|
28
|
|
|
3
|
4
|
50
|
26
|
|
|
4
|
4
|
48
|
22
|
|
|
5
|
4
|
46
|
21
|
|
|
6
|
4
|
45
|
18
|
|
|
7
|
4
|
43
|
16
|
|
|
8
|
2
|
39
|
14
|
|
|
9
|
3
|
30
|
12
|
|
|
10
|
2
|
32
|
10
|
|
|
11
|
2
|
27
|
8
|
|
|
12
|
1
|
27
|
8
|
|
|
13
|
1
|
24
|
6
|
|
|
14
|
1
|
24
|
6
|
|
|
15
|
1
|
18
|
5
|
|
|
16
|
1
|
15
|
4
|
|
|
17
|
1
|
14
|
4
|
|
|
18
|
1
|
12
|
4
|
|
|
19
|
1
|
13
|
3
|
|
|
20
|
1
|
12
|
3
|
|
|
21
|
1
|
11
|
3
|
|
|
22
|
1
|
10
|
3
|
|
|
23
|
0
|
10
|
3
|
|
|
24
|
0
|
10
|
2
|
|
|
25
|
0
|
10
|
2
|
|
|
26
|
0
|
9
|
1
|
|
|
27
|
1
|
8
|
1
|
|
|
28
|
0
|
8
|
1
|
|
|
29
|
0
|
6
|
1
|
|
|
30
|
0
|
8
|
0
|
|
|
31
|
0
|
6
|
0
|
|
|
32
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
0
|
5
|
0
|
|
33
|
0
|
3
|
0
|
|
|
34
|
0
|
3
|
0
|
Takeaways from early Best Ball ADP
- Josh Allen (ADP of 42) is being drafted as the QB2 behind only Patrick Mahomes II and going off the board nearly a full round ahead of Lamar Jackson (QB3). If this holds up for the rest of the offseason, it would seem likely Allen would seem Allen should become the consensus dynasty QB2, as well.
- Justin Herbert (ADP of 62) is going off of the board as the QB6 ahead of Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers. While personally not sold on him at that ADP for 2021, it is clear that the fantasy community is extremely high on Herbert entering his second season. While typically it is best to invest in players with a long-term view, it is sometimes beneficial to also view things in the shorter-term. With that in mind, Herbert is a great bet to have every more dynasty trade value come August than he does now.
- The ADPs of Jalen Hurts (119) and Carson Wentz (180) surprised me. It is unclear how the quarterback situation in Philadelphia is going to play out but the wisdom of the crowd clearly favors Hurts. Hurts is going to be one of the key players to get a good read on this offseason for dynasty owners. If he starts, there is Lamar Jackson-level upside given how much Hurts runs the ball. That "if he starts" is a major hurdle, however.
Unprecedented offseason quarterback movement expected
The smart money is on somewhere between 15 and 20 teams having new starting quarterbacks when next season kicks off. From long-time stalwarts retiring (Phillip Rivers and Drew Brees) to at least a couple of quarterbacks demanding trades (Deshaun Watson and Matthew Stafford), it looks like it is going to be a very busy offseason. From a dynasty perspective, this adds a boatload of uncertainty to so many aspects of the player valuation process. It is not just he direct impact of the movement on the quarterback values but also the cascading impact the upgrades and downgrades team experience at the position cause on the other skill position players.
There will be dynasty winners and losers throughout the process but the uncertainty adds to the value of the 10-to-15 quarterbacks near the top of the list who we know are safely locked into starting jobs for at least the next few years.
Stafford-Goff Trade
The first domino at quarterback this offseason has already fallen with Matthew Stafford headed to the Rams in exchange for Jared Goff and three draft picks.
This is a positive move for Stafford given the Rams skill position talent and the amount of draft capital the Rams used to acquire him. It would be unwise to bump his value up too much, however. The Rams have their own issues to work through over the next few years, including holes to fill on the offensive line, a lack of cap space, and more years without any first-round draft picks.
For Jared Goff, his dynasty value feels very tenuous at the moment. With the Lions having the 7th overall pick, he is one of the prime players whose value will be massively impacted one way or the other on April 29th. With four quarterbacks expected to go in the Top 10, the Lions are in a prime spot to add a new young franchise quarterback if they choose to go that route. If quarterback is the pick, Goff is merely a placeholder. If the Lions pass on quarterback — or better yet for Goff — add an elite wide receiver or offensive lineman with that seventh pick, he will receive a nice boost.
One of the other big takeaways from the trade was simply getting a more firm list of teams that are in the market for a new quarterback. Let’s go through some of the more interesting teams on the list (as reported by Albert Breer):
- Carolina offered the eighth-overall pick plus other picks. Teddy Bridgewater signed the big 3-year, $63M contract last offseason but the Panthers have an out after next season. The aggressiveness of their offer for Stafford is further proof that they do not view Bridgewater as the answer at the position. If you can get a decent second-rounder for Bridgewater, now might be a time to try to cash out.
- Washington offered the 19th overall pick and a third-rounder. It is not surprising in the least they are looking for a quarterback but the quality of their offer is further confirmation we should not put much stock in Alex Smith or Taylor Heinecke.
- The Broncos offered the draft capital equivalent of a late-first rounder. They are clearly in the market for an upgrade at the position. Drew Lock is just barely holding onto this starting position.
- The 49ers dipped their toes in the water but never included the 12th-overall pick in their offer, which indicates that while the team is clearly looking to upgrade from Jimmy Garoppolo, there is still a decent chance they stick with him as the starter. This does not seem to be a situation like the Rams and Goff where the coaching staff has lost confidence and a breakup seems imminent.
Running Back
|
Rank
|
Player
|
2021 Value
|
Dynasty Value
|
|
1
|
11
|
52
|
|
|
2
|
9
|
50
|
|
|
3
|
10
|
48
|
|
|
4
|
10
|
48
|
|
|
5
|
9
|
46
|
|
|
6
|
8
|
40
|
|
|
7
|
DAndre Swift
|
6
|
36
|
|
8
|
8
|
35
|
|
|
9
|
9
|
34
|
|
|
10
|
6
|
33
|
|
|
11
|
6
|
33
|
|
|
12
|
6
|
32
|
|
|
13
|
6
|
32
|
|
|
14
|
8
|
32
|
|
|
15
|
8
|
30
|
|
|
16
|
6
|
28
|
|
|
17
|
6
|
28
|
|
|
18
|
6
|
27
|
|
|
19
|
6
|
26
|
|
|
20
|
7
|
26
|
|
|
21
|
A.J. Dillon
|
4
|
18
|
|
22
|
4
|
16
|
|
|
23
|
4
|
13
|
|
|
24
|
2
|
12
|
|
|
25
|
2
|
11
|
|
|
26
|
2
|
10
|
|
|
27
|
Melvin Gordon
|
2
|
10
|
|
28
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
29
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
30
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
31
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
32
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
33
|
2
|
7
|
|
|
34
|
2
|
7
|
|
|
35
|
1
|
7
|
|
|
36
|
2
|
7
|
|
|
37
|
1
|
7
|
|
|
38
|
1
|
6
|
|
|
39
|
KeShawn Vaughn
|
0
|
6
|
|
40
|
1
|
5
|
|
|
41
|
Darrell Henderson
|
0
|
5
|
|
42
|
0
|
5
|
|
|
43
|
1
|
5
|
|
|
44
|
1
|
5
|
|
|
45
|
1
|
4
|
|
|
46
|
0
|
4
|
|
|
47
|
0
|
4
|
|
|
48
|
Jeff Wilson
|
1
|
3
|
|
49
|
0
|
3
|
|
|
50
|
LeVeon Bell
|
0
|
3
|
|
51
|
0
|
3
|
|
|
52
|
Benny Snell
|
0
|
2
|
|
53
|
LaMical Perine
|
0
|
2
|
|
54
|
0
|
2
|
Takeaways from early Best Ball ADP
- Cam Akers is a hot name. After posting 272 total yards in his two playoff outings, he is the biggest dynasty riser since the end of the regular season. Expect his rise this offseason to mirror that of Miles Sanders last offseason. Akers has already shot up to the cusp of the first round in best ball drafts (ADP of 14th overall) and he could push into the late-first like Sanders did. Given his age, he is likely to be the second-most valuable sophomore dynasty back this offseason.
- Watching what Green Bay does in free agency will be fascinating. Aaron Jones is going in the middle of the second round (which seems surprising given his FA status). We are also seeing A.J. Dillon going early in the sixth round (65th overall). Dillon is a major wild card this offseason. If Jones leaves, Dillon’s value is going to rocket up towards the other top rookie backs. He could also easily be relegated to backup-with-upside status if Jones gets an extension with the Packers.
- There are 22 running backs going in the first three rounds. All but a few of them are 25 years old or younger. The deep 2020 rookie class, with seven backs currently going in the Top 30 overall for 2021 drafts, has done much to add to the overall depth at the position.
Super Bowl impact
In terms of dynasty value this offseason, the Super Bowl performance of Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be key. The Buccaneers are the stingiest defense in the NFL so we shouldn’t expect a huge game from the rookie. However, if he is a non-factor again like he was against the Bills, it will be hard to justify valuing him alongside so many other backs from his rookie class who finished their seasons on a high note.
