Some players have better fantasy value than real-life value. For others, the opposite is true.
Welcome to Week 16 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Fantasy vs. Reality II (see below)
- 2025 Free Agent Running Backs
- Most Shocking Fantasy Developments of 2024
- Dynasty Quarterback Value Check
Let's roll.
Fantasy vs. Reality
Matt Waldman: Consider these four pairs of established talents at the main fantasy positions.
- Justin Jefferson - Ja'Marr Chase
- T.J. Hockenson - Sam LaPorta
- Bo Nix - Jayden Daniels
- Breece Hall - Chase Brown
Pick two pairs from the list and tell me which ones from each pair you prefer for fantasy over the next two seasons and which you'd prefer if you ran a real team.
Justin Jefferson vs. Ja'Marr Chase
Joseph Haggan: I'm taking Chase for my fantasy and NFL teams. Jefferson wins with elite route running and magical sticky hands. Chase is another excellent route runner, but he also has tremendous speed and dominates physically.
As good as Jefferson is, he is not as powerful as Chase, who is also tied to Joe Burrow, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Jefferson is stuck with Sam Darnold, who has exceeded expectations, or J.J. McCarthy, who has not even taken an NFL snap.
Chase's physical dominance and big-play ability give him the edge over Jefferson.
Ryan Weisse: I'll take Chase on my fantasy team and Jefferson on my real team. We probably don't need to make much of a case for Chase in fantasy. He is the best receiver in 2024 and can seemingly score on any play. With over 1400 yards, 15 touchdowns, and three games left to play, his stat line speaks for itself.
However, Jefferson still feels like a better receiver to me. Chase's stats are carried by a defense that can't stop anyone, and the Bengals played every game in a shoot-out. Jefferson is putting up great numbers on a contending team. Plus, Jefferson performed far better with bad quarterback play than Chase when he was without Joe Burrow in his career.
Waldman: I love both players. I'll take Chase in both. He's more athletic and versatile, and Jefferson's equal as a route runner. The scheme is more important than the quality of the quarterback. It's a difficult choice, but Chase has the highest ceiling in any given year.
T.J. Hockenson vs. Sam LaPorta
Corey Spala: I would prefer Sam LaPorta for fantasy and if I ran my own NFL team. LaPorta notably had a disappointing season relative to his draft capital. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has utilized multiple weapons and has generated success for Detroit, notably the ascension of Jameson Williams.
Despite the change in utilization, LaPorta (9.9) averages more fantasy points per game than T.J. Hockenson (9.6). Johnson has been a top candidate for a head coaching position, and it is unknown if he will depart following the 2024 season.
Regardless of the outcome, LaPorta should continue to have fantasy success over Hockenson. Both tight ends can improve their blocking, but LaPorta is a superior athlete who can create after the catch.
Sean Settle: T.J. Hockenson is the player I would prefer to have in a real-life situation. He is a better blocker, does not require specialized packages in an offense to get targets, and has been more consistent over his career.
From a fantasy standpoint, LaPorta has the higher upside. He plays for a team that can score 40 on any defense and likes to get creative in the red zone. LaPorta is having a down season compared to his rookie year but has the higher ceiling of the two tight ends.
Waldman: This year, I have taken LaPorta in both fantasy and real life. Now? I'll take Hockenson in both. Hockenson is one of the few all-around tight ends in the league capable of performing at a high level in every facet of the game. LaPorta offers a higher ceiling, but the impending change with coordinators gives Hockenson the slightest edge due to the continuity of the offensive scheme.
Bo Nix vs. Jayden Daniels
Haggan: I'm taking Daniels with both my real and fantasy team. The only true stat where Nix leads Daniels is passing touchdowns (20-17). Daniels has more passing yards, a better completion percentage, a better touchdown-to-interception ratio, and more rushing yards.
Both quarterbacks have proven they can win, currently sitting at 9-5 each. Daniels also plays in a division where he plays the Cowboys and Giants twice a year. Nix has to play the Chiefs and Chargers. Daniels has been the better performer and has the easiest schedule.
Phil Alexander: Bo Nix has made the Broncos look smart for "reaching" for him in the NFL Draft, but Jayden Daniels is a star-in-the-making I prefer in fantasy and if I were running a real team.
About a month ago, Matt asked us to choose between Daniels and Nix for the rest of this season only, and I think my answer still applies when we project the next two years forward. Daniels has consistently demonstrated a higher ceiling, and whether we are talking about fantasy or the NFL, upside wins championships, especially at the quarterback position.
A player posting the numbers Daniels has as a rookie can mask many deficiencies a fantasy or NFL roster otherwise has. And he should only get better from here.
Weisse: While Daniels is an easy pick for my fantasy team, I think I'd go with Nix for my real team. Daniels' rushing upside is his gift and curse. In fantasy, it makes him a top-5 asset. In real life, it makes him an injury liability.
In fantasy, there are usually ten quarterbacks on waivers, which I can add to fill a week or two if Daniels goes down. That is not the case if I'm running a real team. Nix has shown me enough that I am confident he can win games, and I feel more comfortable with him staying healthy.
Settle: Bo Nix is the player I would rather have to start an NFL team. He has more experience coming out of college, has proven he can make any throw at the NFL level, and has done a better job protecting the ball this year. Nix has taken an arguably worse Denver offense and put them in the position to clinch a playoff spot this week.
Jayden Daniels is by far the better fantasy quarterback. His ability to run the ball and Washington's willingness to call planned runs will always put him 3-5 points ahead of a non-running quarterback. Daniels also does not have the best set of weapons around him and has been asked to do more with his legs. Nix is going to take fewer hits and have less risk of injury over time.
Breece Hall vs. Chase Brown
Alexander: I'll take Chase Brown in fantasy over the next two years, but I would rather have Breece Hall if I were running an NFL team.
Breece Hall's fantasy outlook is tenuous moving forward. We have no clue what the Jets are doing at quarterback after they move on from their failed Aaron Rodgers experiment. New York showed little faith in Hall as a bell cow when they drafted a pair of talented running backs, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, in Rounds 4 and 5 of the NFL Draft, respectively. And Hall is still struggling to put the effects of 2022 ACL surgery in his rearview.
By comparison, Brown has gained the trust of the Bengals coaching staff by excelling in an every-down role. Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor recently stated, "This was always the intent with Chase, to build up to a workload where we can just try to get him the ball in various ways… I think he's fit perfectly with what we want out of that position.” We can trust Taylor here.
Even after the team acquired Khalil Herbert at the trade deadline, Brown has rarely left the field and delivered like a fantasy superstar. If we are only concerned with fantasy points, give me the featured back tethered to Joe Burrow for the next two years.
For real football, I want Hall, who is the better talent. Few running backs have entered the NFL recently with Hall's rare blend of size, power, creativity, and soft hands. He is a threat to score from anywhere on the field on any given touch. Ideally, I would pair Hall with a durable, reliable, early-down back and deploy him similarly to how the Lions use Jahmyr Gibbs.
Spala: I would prefer Chase Brown for fantasy and if I ran my own NFL team. Brown has taken on a larger workload following Zack Moss' designation to injured reserve. Since Week 9, Brown's lowest weekly fantasy finish is RB9, and he has averaged 25 opportunities per game.
He is proving his ability to handle an RB1's workload and cementing himself as their main running back for the foreseeable future. Brown and Breece Hall's contracts are both expiring in 2026, there is no argument based on this premise.
I have been impressed with Brown's ascension with Cincinnati and believe he will be the superior fantasy player and running back for an NFL team moving forward.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Fantasy vs. Reality II
- 2025 Free Agent Running Backs
- Most Shocking Fantasy Developments of 2024
- Dynasty Quarterback Value Check
Good luck!