It's championship week. Most of the film study is done. I'm doing some on Michael Penix Jr. for this week's Gut Check. Otherwise, the rest of my time will be looking ahead to the 2025 rookie class and fantasy season.

Instead, let's examine new lessons learned -- and old ones validated -- in 2024. 

No Cliff's Notes are necessary. 

1. Look for Layers, Not the Magic Pill

Late-Round QB. Stud RB. Zero RB and Hero RB (you old-timers know their real names...haha). These strategies are effective guidelines for getting fantasy managers on the road to thinking critically about how to become more effective drafters. 

Unfortunately, fantasy managers, when given a strategy, adopt a tourist mentality for the rest of the fantasy season. They lose all common sense and forget about critical decision-making.

Just like the sensible teachers, executives, and tradespeople who go on vacation, become a tourist, and decide it's sensible to get off the bus to play grab ass on the side of the road with deer, moose, and buffalo. 

Gore = Excellent RB for a longer period than most...Goring = bodily harm, medical bills, and public embarrassment for behaving like an idiot. 

These fantasy guidelines for drafting have the same purpose: Exploiting value where it potentially exists in summer drafts. That's the real trick -- which strategies, if there's one at all, are the best basis for your drafts? 

How do you get better at determining your strategies? If you're in a long-running league where everyone does the same thing, much of your strategy will be based on knowing your competition's predictability and using that to your advantage. 

Otherwise, you're seeking layers of information beyond the magic pill of the snappy strategy name. A good example is the decision to exploit top running backs this year. Here were my layers of thinking heading into 2024 that led me to adopt this idea in my Preseason Draft Plan. 

• The prolific passing attacks of recent years forced NFL defenses to spread the field and use smaller and lighter personnel to keep up. 
• Eventually, more NFL offenses would counter lighter defenses with the ground game, but a tipping point would be necessary for more teams to change their attack because there would be a lower supply of quality big defenders. 
• That tipping point began with opposing defenses using Cover 2 against the Chiefs to limit the vertical game.
• The tipping point continued when opposing defenses began using umbrella coverages like Cover 2 to reduce the production of NFL passing attacks. 
• The time to adjust for 2024 came in October of 2023 when the NFL production on the ground was collectively at its highest in a decade and passing production dropped. 
• The increase of condensed offensive formations -- multiple tight ends and/or a fullback to run through lighter defensive personnel. 

You see, there are schematic, strategic, and statistical layers underpinning the idea that workhorse running backs could present value. 

The six workhorses I recommended this summer were Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and Breece Hall. It's unrealistic to expect all of them to hit, but Barkley, Henry, and Robinson are three of the top-five RBs in PPR formats heading into Week 17. 

Barkley and Henry were my most touted values, and you could have gotten both in many leagues. Hall and Taylor are delivering RB2 production despite not delivering the anticipated return on investment.  

Lessons to Learn:

• Look for layers of information from actual football to support a potential change in trends. 
• RBs who have a history of successful campaigns with high-volume workloads continue to produce at those rates until their athletic ability falls off the cliff. Think Henry and Barkley. 
• Teams that sign heavy-workload RBs to high-dollar free-agent contracts intend to use them as such. 
• Mobile QBs who are a threat to generate big plays as runners open more creases for RBs when coordinators use them to create binds of who opposing defenders should pursue.  

2. The Tony Pollard Effect

My RSP Going Deep Podcast co-host Brandon Angelo referenced Tony Pollard's 2022-23 injury and recovery as a perfect example of a point we must take into account: There's a difference between a player who is healthy enough to play and healthy enough to perform to his expected baseline value. 

Angelo is a trainer of professional athletes. He's qualified to make the distinction. 

Pollard was healthy enough to execute assignments as a runner, blocker, and receiver. Starters aren't just starters because they have excellent physical skills. Low-error football matters to coaches. 

The other side of the equation is that Pollard doesn't want to lose his job because he takes too long to return to the field. This leads to declining production and fantasy GMs wondering what's wrong. It can lead to speculation that the player has lost his physical talent. 

Angelo saw this coming with Kirk Cousins during the NFL Draft. When Cousins said he couldn't run at full speed in anything but a straight line, it was a tell that Cousins would not be at his expected baseline value to begin the season. 

Angelo noted Cousins would have difficulty moving his lower leg with the range of motion and explosion to generate torque as a thrower. This issue would impact velocity, timing, and placement at specific ranges of the field. 

This Michael Penix Jr. throw on Sunday to Darnell Mooney against the Giants didn't require Mooney to wait on the ball and risk a defensed target or punishment. 

The velocity on this deep out is one of the differences you'll see between Michael Penix Jr., Jr. #RiseUp and Kirk Cousins this year. pic.twitter.com/rjQK1yiIaR

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 23, 2024

Cousins' athletic limitations compressed the field and, ultimately, the Falcons' offense. The stats don't show the difference between Cousins this year and Penix's debut, but Penix's ability to stretch the defense opens the playbook for the Falcons' offense. 

I'll go into more detail in this week's Gut Check. The lesson here is that when athletic trainers to professionals have a studied perspective about an injury, it's worth paying attention -- especially injuries requiring a long recovery. 

Stay tuned for Angelo's thoughts on Rashee Rice. He shared some earlier this year. We'll follow up this summer. 

Lesson Learned: Being ready to play doesn't mean being ready to produce at pre-injury value. Learn about the injury before making the assumption and err on the side of caution.

3. Make Every Pick A Value Pick

Most of my 2024 rookie video work appeared in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio -- now available at the normal pre-order price between now and April for those who refused to pay at a discount. 

Although I didn't make many YouTube videos about the 2024 rookie class, I tried to make them count. One I've shared repeatedly since September of 2023 was about Marvin Harrison Jr., Jr.'s hands. 

Few wanted to hear that Harrison wasn't the next out-of-the-box, set-it-and-forget-it superstar. Harrison's ADP was the 15th pick in August. He's not even the 15th-best fantasy receiver, much less the 15th-best fantasy option this year. 

Harrison is WR35 in PPR formats entering Week 17. I ranked Harrison as WR38 this summer. My commentary: 

Matt Waldman on Aug 30

Why I'm lower on Harrison than those who have sold the farm:

1) Harrison excels at getting open late in routes but has some tells (he opens his chest to the defender too often) with his releases that will get him jammed more often by NFL cornerbacks.  

2) Because Harrison gets open later rather than earlier, he's not as great of a match for Kyler Murray, who lacks patience and efficiency in the pocket. This will make the timing with their vertical game less effective and reduce the number of viable vertical targets most are expecting to see converted between the two. 

3. Murray's pocket management is sub-par and forces receivers to re-route more than necessary. Developing a rapport with an unreliable pocket manager will be a challenge. 

4. Harrison has some attack issues that lead to drops. Not nearly as bad as Quentin Johnston, but may factor. 

Can he earn close to 1,000 yards? Sure. Will he be in Nacua territory? Not with Kyler Murray. 

Lesson Learned/Validated: The point about Harrison that applies to all picks is that when you take a player, it's wise to take him where you believe he can exceed the expectations of that pick. 

If I were taking Harrison as the 15th player overall, I saw a reasonable ceiling for him to deliver elite production as a top-five option overall. If I were taking Saquon Barkley as a top-five pick, I saw a reasonable path to a career year. 

The last time I took a rookie as a top-15 fantasy option? Edgerrin James at the turn with Eddie George. I was lucky. It was an awful move, considering Marshall Faulk was the available option I didn't take. 

Be reasonable about ceilings -- especially when one like Harrison is paired with a quarterback who hasn't proved he can sustain starter production for multiple receivers in the passing game. 

There were too many voices in the echo chamber, building up a talented but flawed player who needs work to attain Malik Nabers' level of production. Speaking of which...

4. Great Talents Can Survive A Bad Organization...

Caleb Williams is QB13 heading into Week 17 (I had him as QB15 in the preseason). Since Week 12, Williams has been delivering as fantasy football's QB6. 

Guess where I projected Williams from Week 12 onward? QB8 with the projected yardage and passing touchdown bump and...

"If Williams earns two more rushing touchdowns -- one out of every three contests, as I'm projecting -- you're looking at another two-point bump to his average, and that places Williams at 20 points per game. He'd be knocking on the door of top-five production."

Since Week 12? He's knocking pretty loud. 

Williams was the only quarterback in this draft that I thought an organization with as much dysfunction as the Bears couldn't ruin. Why? Williams' pocket presence, pass placement, creativity, mobility, and toughness. 

You couldn't win with Williams in re-draft formats this year--at least not until the playoffs, and it meant you better have had a startable passer during the regular season. However, it is notable that great talents can outlast bad coaches and organizational dysfunction if they can stay healthy. His dynasty ceiling should be as high as it was when Chicago drafted him. If not, get Williams at a discount. 

Lesson Learned/Validated: Rookies are best as long-term fantasy investments. If you're going to consider one as the exceptional case, make sure you track how many big risks you're taking in your draft and try to cut them down to a minimum. 

The 2024 NFL Draft Class was an exceptional group. You don't usually get Malik Nabers and Caleb Williams in the same class, much less Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., etc. 

Even so, the reason they are long-term investments more than short-term fixes is...

5. Bad Organizations Limit A Great Talent's Ceiling

Imagine if Caleb Williams had an offensive coordinator who did the following: 

• Used DJ Moore at his natural position of flanker. 
• Used Rome Odunze at split-end. 
• Ran a playbook that the offensive line could support by keeping Caleb Williams clean.
• Williams wasn't beaten up by the third quarter. 
• Defenses had to defend the quick passing game. 

These are all things Thomas Brown changed when the Bears fired Shane Waldron. Williams was QB20 in fantasy leagues under Shane Waldron. DJ Moore was WR32. Keenan Allen was WR73.

Under Thomas Brown, Williams is QB6. Moore is WR13, and Allen is WR9.

Lessons Learned/Validated: Bad organizational management puts multiple players in positions to lose. 

6. No Injured Player Is Worth Waiting Half A Season

Jonathon Brooks was touted as that risk worth taking. Go ahead, add him to your roster, wait 6-8 weeks, and he'll make it all worthwhile.

I loved Brooks' talent. I had him as RB36 this summer. 

Bad idea. Roster spots are valuable. Despite the first-round NFL Draft capital, ranking Brooks this high was a similar mistake most made with Marvin Harrison Jr. at 15. 

Lesson Learned/Validated: Don't pay attention to players and agents telling the public they'll be ready to begin training camp when they tore an ACL in late November in college. It's not a realistic timeline for pro players and won't be one for a rookie. 

Once Brooks wasn't a mainstay in practice by August, we should have known to ignore any sunshine collectively being blown up our backsides about Brooks. 

Consider the list of players who were available on waivers that you might have missed while holding onto Brooks: Jauan Jennings, Rico Dowdle, Tyrone Tracy Jr., J.K. Dobbins, Kareem Hunt, Jordan Mason, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, Rashod Bateman, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Jonnu Smith, Jalen Tolbert, Elijah Moore, Marvin Mims Jr., and Cade Otton. 

These are just some of the players of value who you may have bypassed due to the hope Brooks could emerge from an ACL tear and perform like an immediate superstar. 

Lesson Learn/Validated: When a player has a late-season ACL tear, is a rookie, and is competing with a veteran who has improved every year, a wise approach is to err on the side of surprise ahead of expectation. 

Don't expect a player to deliver in this scenario. Adding him to your roster and waiting is both foolish and arrogant. The best waiver additions are usually available in the first month. Don't clog your roster with a player in this situation. His draft capital and talent might as well be fairy dust your kid got from the vacuum you used to clean around the litter box. 

7. Few Players Experience Multi-Faceted Growth

Chuba Hubbard arrived in the NFL as a developmental D'Andre Swift. He could run gap plays, draws, and execute screens and RPOs.

Give him one option, and he'd hit it hard and fast. Get him into the open field, and he could break away. 

But put him in traffic and give him multiple choices to develop, and it wasn't good. He had a problem with ball security. There were diagnostic lapses and problems with execution in pass protection. 

My pre-draft Elevator Pitch on Hubbard from the RSP: 

If judging Hubbard against the past 3-4 backs ranked ahead of him on the criteria of which prospect has the most realistically improvable skills, Hubbard would be near the top of the list. His decision-making is improvable with more exposure/experience to certain scheme types. He has already shown improvement as a blocker, and there’s more room for realistic growth.

If he can add healthy weight, he could become a better contact runner. Add these things up, and Hubbard could easily become a high-end Rotational Starter—a lead back in a committee.

So while his Depth of Talent score is lower than the likes of Stevie Scott III, Jaret Patterson, and Kenneth Gainwell, the areas where Hubbard can improve and the attainability of these skills should easily give him more realistic upside and opportunities than Scott. That’s a safe bet.

While not as sound of a player as Patterson and Gainwell, Hubbard could outgrow them physically and eventually match what’s most important conceptually. Because Hubbard has top speed and terrific acceleration, he’s going to earn a higher draft capital and every back mentioned above with the possible exception of Gainwell.

The spoils of draft capital are extended opportunities to learn without getting written off too early. As long as Hubbard doesn’t fumble away his shot—and he fumbles way too much—he’ll get every chance to make good on the promise of his explosive athletic ability.

Fast-forward to this year, and we've seen Hubbard improve every year. He's stronger, more disciplined between the tackles, adept at multiple blocking schemes, and better with ball security. He's also a better pass protector.

While we see a lot of players improve dramatically in one, maybe two, areas, Hubbard has been the exception. 

Lesson Learned/Validated: This may be more for me than you, but the lesson is, "Trust your eyes." Last year, I noted in Week 1 that Hubbard looked like the best back on the Panthers' roster and added him as a free agent in a dynasty league. 

It might also be a good lesson for the Carolina Panthers, who added Brooks in the first round. Based on Hubbard's new contract, maybe that wasn't a great use of draft capital after all. I'm not even counting the recent injury as a factor. 

8. The NFL's QB Development Is Broken

This is a variation on the theme of Topic No.1: Layers of information are more valuable than some magic pill or template. 

The NFL, media, and fans want a template. It's either/or with them: Start the rookie and play him all the way through or bench him and make him wait for a significant amount of time. 

Considering the graphic I got last month about the lack of quarterback development around the league from someone qualified to talk about it, maybe the real problem is that "good" development for the league is minimal, and most development measures are non-existent. 

If my advice meant anything, here's what I'd suggest: 

• The overall philosophy for QB development should be a plan of intermittent starting/benching.
• Plan on giving the QB bite-sized opportunities to play and gradually increase the workload. 
• When a quarterback exhibits signs of repeatedly rushing, looks lost, and has erratic game management, pull him and let him watch the veteran. 
• Benching helps players get out of the moment and assess their weaknesses with a more measured approach, especially if the coach gives the QB the perspective that the benching isn't the end of their starting career. 
• If the player shows he can handle a lot more -- and not in the way we hear every year because coaches are people-pleasing their executives who want good PR and optics about their first-round investment -- you can skip the early steps, but don't be afraid to bench him if he hits a wall. Give him a chance to evaluate. 

The reason this doesn't happen enough is the typical NFL owner. Sam Darnold saw ghosts in New York. He told Adam Gase on the sidelines during a game, but Gase was unresponsive. With an owner like Woody Johnson, who lets his family get involved like a tamer Joffrey Baratheon, we can speculate why that was.  

Darnold may not be as good as his Vikings-era production may lead us to believe, but he was good enough for Kyle Shanahan to take Darnold in as a backup last year. Not every first-round quarterback would become a franchise quarterback with this approach, but more of them would, and more of them would become competent contributors. 

It's also good to remember that Jay Cutler was a Pro Bowl QB in Year 2, and the Bears thought they were getting a finished product. Denver knew better. Just because a rookie starts strong doesn't mean he's over the hump in Year 2 or even Year 3. It typically takes 18-30 games for us to truly know. 

9. Elite WRs Don't Need Elite QBs to Earn Fantasy Value

Nabers is WR10 despite playing with "Janiel Dones," Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, and Tim Boyle. Nabers is the very definition of a great talent. 

• He plays all three receiver positions at a high level (Harrison? Nope).
• He's an excellent technician with all phases of route-running (Harrison? More limited).
• He has no routine lapses as a pass-catcher (Harrison? See above). 
• He wins targets in contested scenarios (See above). 

This also fit A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson when they arrived in the NFL. Brown, Jefferson, and Nabers are on the extreme of the player spectrum who can thrive despite a paucity of surrounding talent. 

10. We Don't Always Know Who He Is...

This applies mostly to reserve running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

Jordan Mason, Jauan Jennings, and Jonnu Smith are great examples. All three have been career reserves/contributors. All three showed us they can be more.

Rico Dowdle, anyone?

Development time and opportunity can matter. 

Lesson Learned/Validated: Remain open-minded about players who maintain active roster spots during their initial contract as Day Three picks or UDFAs. The fact they aren't getting displaced by younger talent is a notable development. 

The same applies to journeymen contributors who continue to earn a spot in the league. If you begin to see notable production from them, bet that their "label" from pro scouts and coaches will change. Smith's changed in Atlanta, and that is why Mike McDaniel signed him. 

Good luck this week. This column will be back in September 2025.  

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