The Gut Check No.644: What We Got from Michael Penix Jr.

Matt Waldman breaks down what fantasy GMs got from quarterback Michael Penix Jr.'s first start and what to expect moving forward.

Matt Waldman's The Gut Check No.644: What We Got from Michael Penix Jr. Matt Waldman Published 12/24/2024

© Dale Zanine-Imagn Images Michael Penix Jr

Michael Penix Jr.: A Worthwhile Gamble This Week?

Penix could serve as a valuable flex or desperation starter during the next two weeks. As I tried to tell my friend Alex last week, Caleb Williams was the better start and most of you shouldn't roll with Penix as a championship gamble. 

Still, if you're going to gamble, Penix has the skills, the surrounding talent, and the generous defense to force the Falcons to throw the ball. Last week, I shared what to expect from Penix and his surrounding talent. This week, let's analyze what we saw, modify the expectations for the final two weeks of 2024, and how to value Penix for dynasty and re-draft leagues moving forward. 

The Film

When it comes to a quarterback's development potential, 8-12 games rarely tell you the entire story about a passer, much less 1. So what's the use of this analysis? 

We can see where a quarterback and his teammates look comfortable, where they don't, and what the coaches are trying to emphasize or hide with a rookie passer's game. This information can help us determine if there's immediate value. 

***Author's Note***

You may see "Michael Penix Jr., Jr." on the video posts because Footballguys player tagging system inserts a link to our player pages when a writer mentions a player. Because I feared erasing the original "Jr." from the post would interfere with the video populating on the page, you may see two Juniors after Penix's name.  When previewing the article, it appears the second Junior doesn't show up, but I'm adding this in case it's different when we publish the article. 

How Atlanta Began Was Telling

Atlanta's first pass call against the Giants only involved two receivers off a play-action boot concept.

When most people see that only two receivers released into routes and associate the play call with a rookie in his first start, the obvious conclusion is that Atlanta didn't trust Penix as a decision-maker, and they were being conservative. 

If this was the case for more than one play, I'd agree. However, this was the only play of this type in the game. Atlanta gave Penix two clear reads to get him started, and both were downfield reads as well. This is a sign Atlanta knows Penix is an aggressive player, and they want to keep him in that mindset. 

We saw that aggression again as Atlanta got inside the Giants' 30 on that drive. 

Atlanta also knows Penix's velocity and placement as a deep thrower are strengths the offense lacked all year. They want to put the Giants and the next two opponents on notice that the entire field is exploitable with Penix at the helm. 

We also saw Penix make more complex decisions during the game, including throws that went beyond a second read. 

Atlanta gave Penix a simple concept early to get him into the flow game. They didn't hide him from the defense. 

A Preview of the Coverages Penix Will See This Year

The Giants began the game with Cover 1 and Cover 3. Cover 1 is man-to-man with a single high safety.  Cover 3, looks like Cover 1 in many respects, but the corners play outside the receivers and operate with more zone principles. Certain routes in Cover 3 get treated with man-to-man coverage and this can lead to people confusing it with Cover 1. 

Penix's first throw against Cover 1 showed us that Penix had a good sense of the coverage, the potential holes in the coverage, and where and when to return to the biggest opening. 

Here's an early-game rep against Cover 3. Although the outcome isn't productive, Penix is seeing the field by the playbook against this coverage type. As he gets more comfortable, he'll get more creative and adaptable within the bounds of the play call and make minor adjustments like the one I suggested in the video.

Cover 1 and Cover 3 are common coverages in the college game. These two examples didn't have any significant disguises or alterations.

Although straightforward looks, we saw a tentative Bryce Young against looks like these before Young's early-season benching. After Young's benching, Young looked more like early-2023 Jordan Love or Patrick Mahomes II in his first pro start against the Broncos -- smooth, decisive, and aggressive without confusion. 

These behaviors also characterize what you'll see from the rest of the Giants' film in Penix's first start. 

What About Cover 2?

Two-high safeties -- Cover 2 -- have been a big part of the league in recent years. The Giants eventually used Cover 2 in this game, but they were trying to avoid it because the weakness of the coverage is the ground game, which is the known strength of the Falcons' offense. 

Instead, the Giants tried to confuse Penix with blitz looks from various spots and either send the defender or drop into coverage. None of this fazed Penix. 

Although you'd like to see Penix fit the ball up the seam to Kyle Pitts on the second clip, it was a tighter window than it appears. It's also a window that requires precision timing to access it. 

The fact Penix brought the ball back was a good sign that he saw it. It's a sign that as he gets more comfortable, he'll attempt it. 

Penix also didn't take any chances based on his field position and the game script. In that sense, it was also wise.

Penix made wise decisions the entire game.

This is something you'd expect from a veteran like Kirk Cousins, but Cousins is coping with an injury that has activated a sense of desperation to get the job done -- Hero Mode. Cousins suffered from the hubris of Hero Ball at Michigan State, Washington, and occasionally in desperate situations in Minnesota. 

NFL Network's Kyle Brandt defines Hero Ball as a positive -- Josh Allen going Ricky Bobby on defenses. Hero Ball has long been defined as a negative -- trying to write checks with throws that your arm can't cash. 

Cousins has long had a penchant for going full-on Brett Favre without the Mississippi Potato Gun attached to his shoulder. We didn't see this in Penix's first start, despite the Giants' attempts to goad him into it. Most passers with Penix's arm -- Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen -- took the bait. 

This is a good sign that Penix's time on the bench has helped him become more mentally prepared. Once the Giants saw none of these tricks were working, they showed Penix Cover 2, but based on how the game unfolded, they couldn't stick with it. 

Penix nearly got the better of them against the look. 

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What Cousins Can't Do This Year...

What matters about this difference between Penix and Cousins doesn't show up neatly in the data. You can look at Penix and Cousins' stats this year and you won't see much of a difference with the averages. 

Cousins was attempting throws in the intermediate and vertical ranges of the field. What the stats don't show is whether a receiver had to wait on the football. The stats don't show how vertical shows with velocity can pressure defenses to reprioritize the attention within the coverage scheme. 

Remember when Chase Claypool was performing at an elite level as a rookie? Opposing defenses prioritized JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson ahead of Claypool in the coverage during the first 5-6 weeks of the season. 

The Titans were the first team to make the adjustments to stop Claypool. They prioritized Claypool within the same coverage looks ahead of the veterans, and it was the beginning of a precipitous drop in production for Claypool. 

Penix's arm strength and placement with vertical and boundary throws will force opposing defenses to give more respect to these plays. Before they do, expect more big plays in this area of the field because the reprioritization hasn't happened yet. You'll see field-flipping plays. 

Look at the second play from this clip I shared earlier.

The differences will bear out if Penix continues to perform as he did on Sunday. 

Processing Speed

This is the promising part of Penix's game that you hope you'll see from a young quarterback who has spent most of his first season on the bench, but you never know until he earns playing time. There were multiple plays in this game where Penix brought the ball back as soon as he turned his head to a different target. 

When a quarterback's feet, eyes, and arm have this level of synchronicity, it's an indicator that the player understands the play, knows the coverage and its gaps, feels the players around him with good timing, and sees the field well. 

After performing my evaluation of Penix, I spoke with scouts and media draftniks who had concerns about how Penix worked the middle of the field. It's early, but the processing and placement of these targets were good signs. 

When a player is processing this fast in his early starts, it's a positive you don't always see from passers who eventually become good. We saw good processing like this early on from Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes II, and as far back as Matt Ryan. 

We eventually saw it from Bo Nix, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Matthew Stafford, but it took weeks, if not more than a season, for it to happen. 

Another good sign of his processing was how strong Penix performed on second and third down on Sunday. Other than the missed fade to Drake London on the first drive on third down, Penix converted most of these scenarios or put Atlanta in position to convert on the next play. 

Some of these plays are difficult for veterans. Go ahead and scoff that it's the Giants, but good scouting doesn't logo scout. There weren't significant coverage breaks in this game. 

Where the Universe Was Unkind to Penix's Fantasy Value Last Week

If these went a little differently, Penix would have delivered 1-2 touchdowns and no interceptions. Even then, it would have meant low-end QB2 value in flex leagues, at best. 

Overall, the quality of the game was far more promising than the production. Atlanta's defense and ground game also made the passing less necessary by the third quarter. 

Modifying What to Expect for the Next Two Weeks

You can go here for the details from last week's assessment if you need them. I placed an asterisk next to any player's assessment I modified. I only changed one assessment. 

Here's the Cliff's Notes version: 

These next two opponents have enough offense to force Atlanta to continue throwing the ball and that could elevate Penix's production to a starter tier -- especially if he hits on some of the big plays he nearly delivered against the Giants. 

I'd consider Penix ahead of Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, and Russell Wilson this week. Next week? I'd consider Penix ahead of Kyler Murray, Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, and Aaron Rodgers if Rodgers even plays. 

2025 Re-Draft and Dynasty Considerations

Don't expect Penix to deliver like Patrick Mahomes II in Year Two. Opposing defenses have shut down the vertical game more often with umbrella coverage, and Mahomes is arguably tier above even most of the elite quarterback prospects in the league. 

Because Jordan Love sat for multiple years, don't expect Penix to deliver as well as Love, either. At the same time, Love had a lot more work ahead of him when he entered the league than Penix.  

What we've seen from Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels in the passing game -- sans the rushing yardage and scores -- is a realistic baseline. That likely translates to 3400-3700 yards, 24-27 touchdowns and 9-11 interceptions. That's likely what we're getting from QB11 Mahomes in a down year. 

Penix might approach Nix's rushing totals, but as fast as he is, it's unlikely the Falcons build his mobility into the rushing offense like Daniels. 

Penix could deliver dynasty value if his stats remain similar to what we saw against the Giants, but the tape shows promise. Even if the tape has more bad moments, and I bet it will, I'd rate Penix as a player worthy of investment. 

Penix will be a capable late-round QB available after the 15th round in 2025 redraft formats if he doesn't have a huge two weeks to end 2024. At this point in my evaluation of 2025 rookie quarterbacks, I'd rate Penix ahead of the 2025 options. That may change by April 1, but I'm betting against it.

Good luck, and see you next year! 

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Photos provided by Imagn Images
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