The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup and rookie drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade is considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, it is a trade offer worth strongly considering.
THE NUTS AND BOLTS
The trade value numbers you see next to each player's name are a combination of projected 2016 value and future value (2017 and beyond). The calculation is based upon projected points per game minus replacement-level scoring at the position. So for example in 2015, Julio Jones averaged 23 PPG and replacement-level production at wide receiver was 12 PPG. Thus, Jones provided his owners with 11 points (23 minus 12) worth of value in 2015. The sum of Jones' projected value for 2016 (9) and beyond (37) is 46 points. For a more in-depth discussion of the method to this madness, check out the first Dynasty Trade Value Chart from two years ago.
A note on Early Season Rankings and Values
Striking the right balance between over-reaction and under-reaction when dealing with incredibly small sample sizes is both necessary and nearly impossible. We have to look closely at the players who have surprised through two weeks (both good and bad) and try to determine just how much our expectations need to be recalibrated.
As such, most of the player's spotlighted in this article are the players who have greatly underperformed or seriously exceeded expectations through two weeks.
Wide Receiver
10 Risers and Fallers
Allen Robinson- Robinson is off to a slower than expected start (averaging just 10.3 PPG). The offseason featured an interesting "Will ARob regress or not?" discussion on twitter. The early returns do point to a statisical regression from his monster 2015 campaign and the early season performance of Blake Bortles has to be concerning to some extent. However, there is a danger of overreacting here. Most of the expected regression (particularly in touchdowns) was already priced into his dynasty value. Dropping Robinson out of the the top 5-10 overall players would be a mistake. He is still an ultra-talented 23-year old and has had a pair of difficult individual matchups to start the season. If Robinson's value has fallen, it is only fractionally. But he is a player who we have to have some concerns about and perhaps reassess in the next Dynasty Trade Value Chart update (coming in Week 7).
Sammy Watkins- Watkins' slow start is much more concerning. The foot injury he is playing through is obviously slowing him down considerably. At some point this season, he might even have to consider shutting it down and trying to get healthy for 2017. The injury is a real negative blow to his value for two reasons. First, each player only has a finite number of prime years. It is starting to look like one of Watkins' prime years will be wasted. Second, the injury hurts his value more than it might another young receiver because it furthers a pattern of injuries for Watkins that is becoming impossible to ignore. Thus, you have to knock down both Watkins' 2016 projected value and dock his future value a little bit because of a lack of confidence that he will be able to put together a string of healthy seasons in the future.
Kelvin Benjamin- Two weeks into the season, Benjamin is the top fantasy wide receiver (averaging over 25 PPG). While it’s an incredibly small sample size, we should err on the side of overreaction here. All offseason, it was unclear whether Benjamin would return to his rookie role of clearcut #1 receiver or whether the Panthers offense would spread the ball around like it did in 2015 with Devin Funchess possibly even challenging Benjamin as the top target. We already have some clarity on the pecking order in Carolina: Benjamin is the man. It looks like he will see similar volume to his rookie season (more than 9 targets per game) and with the leap in play from Cam Newton, he should put up elite fantasy numbers. He is a top 10 receiver as of today and could easily end up moving even higher. I
Stefon Diggs- The second-leading fantasy receiver through two weeks (just behind Benjamin) is the Vikings’ second-year breakout star. His performance through two weeks (16-285-1) is shocking, even to his biggest believers. It’s even more impressive that his breakout has come with journeyman Shaun Hill and newly acquired Sam Bradford throwing him the ball. The dynasty value of Diggs gets a massive bump (all the way up to WR15). He is clearly a dynamic young talent. However, this is a situation where there is a real danger of overreacting. Even if Diggs is the clear #1 option in Minnesota, this is still a slow-paced offense with mediocre quarterback play. We also saw Diggs fade after a hot start in 2015.
Keenan Allen- The season-ending injury to Allen is a real blow to his fantasy value. He was poised to have a monster season and he misses not only a year of his own prime, but also possibly one of Philip Rivers’ (35-years old in December) few remaining prime seasons. As with Watkins, we have to knock Allen’s future value down just a bit as well. The injuries aren’t quite as concerning for his future ability to stay healthy, but Allen is still building a reputation as a player who is likely to miss some games most seasons.
Will Fuller- What to make of Will Fuller? As a believer in looking at draft position as the primary determinant in putting together a dynasty rookie draft board, Fuller already ranked fairly highly in the offseason. But even his biggest believers couldn’t have predicted back-to-back 100-yard games to start his rookie season. It would be a mistake to anoint Fuller the next Odell Beckham after just two weeks. He is still the second receiver on his own team and Brock Osweiler looks shaky. It would also be a mistake to fail to recognize the valuable and unique talents he brings to the table. Fuller will not need 10 targets every game to be fantasy relevant due to his big-play ability. If you are able to get Fuller in a trade for somebody like Laquon Treadwell with an owner who is overvaluing the pre-draft scouting reports.
Willie Snead- Through two weeks, Snead is a top-3 fantasy receiver. He deserves a clear bump in dynasty value, but this feels like a situation where we want to err on the side of caution. Brandin Cooks is the top option in the offense, Michael Thomas is still lurking as a potential impact player and Coby Fleener can’t be this bad all season. The Saints have also been incredibly pass-heavy to start the year and Snead’s 8.5 target per game could come down slightly. Drew Brees also turns 39-years old later this season and Snead’s value is largely tied to that of his aging quarterback.
Tajae Sharpe- With 18 targets in two weeks, Sharpe is clearly the top wide receiver option for Marcus Mariota at just 21-years old. Sharpe looks like he will be a fantasy factor for a long time. The question is going to be how much upside he has in a slow-paced, run-heavy offense. Even with some concerns about Sharpe's big-play ability and upside in this offense, he looks like a top-5 rookie receiver in what is shaping up to be a surprisingly strong rookie receiver class.
Devin Funchess- The dynasty value of Funchess slowly crept up all offseason. By August, he was consistently going in the top-50 overall in startup drafts. Through two weeks, he has just three catches. We have already seen enough that we can put to bed the narrative that he may develop into the #1 in Carolina over Kelvin Benjamin. However, let’s not completely throw in the towel on Funchess. He is just 22-years old and both Greg Olsen and Ted Ginn Jr are 31-years old. The longer-term potential is still decently high.
Laquon Treadwell- The 2016 wide receiver class has been a pleasant surprise. Sharpe quickly emerged as a potential impact player despite being drafted on Day 3. Perhaps even more impressive, six of the seven receivers drafted in the first two rounds have generated plenty of early buzz and shown flashes of potential in the early weeks of the season. The only one of the seven who has been an early disappointment is Treadwell, who was the consensus most highly-valued of the group just a few months ago. The star turn for Stefon Diggs also seriously caps Treadwell’s upside in the medium-term even if he does start to come on and beats out Charles Johnson.
Running Back
Five Risers and Fallers
Todd Gurley- The formula for running back fantasy production is two parts situation, one part talent. Gurley is a great example of how even the most talented runners are hostage to their team’s scheme and surrounding talent. Gurley’s situation appeared to be on the rise with the drafting of Jared Goff, who most viewed as a relatively safe bet to develop into at least a competent NFL starter. While it is still extremely early, we have some serious reasons to doubt Goff’s future. If Goff cannot elevate the Rams passing attack to at least a baseline level of competence, it is hard to see Gurley as anything but a low-end RB1 in the short-to-medium term. While Gurley still remains near the top of the dynasty RB ranks, the case for him over being valued over top young receivers like Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, etc. is tough to make.
Melvin Gordon- In an example of how two games can change everything, there is now a serious debate as to who will be more productive the rest of 2016 between Gurley and his fellow 2015 first-rounder Melvin Gordon. After not scoring even a single touchdown in 2015, Gordon already has found the end zone three times. He is showing no ill effects from offseason micro fracture surgery and looks more like the guy who earned a consensus first-round grade from NFL just 18 months ago. It may be a slight overreaction to bump Gordon all the way up to the #7 dynasty running back, but the lack of dynasty value after the top five running backs is pretty shocking. Gordon has as good a chance as any outside of the top six to develop into a highly-valuable fantasy asset.
Theo Riddick- We have three new pieces of information that all point to a bump in Riddick’s dynasty value. First, he signed a relatively lucrative extension to stay in Detroit. It is clear that the Lions value him highly and plan on him remaining a key cog in their offense over at least the medium-term. Second, the offseason talk from the Lions that they wanted to get Riddick more involved as a runner (and not just as a receiver) looks accurate. Even in Week 1 when the Lions had a full stable of backs, Riddick put up 45 rushing yards and a rushingg touchdown. Third, the injury to Ameer Abdullah has opened the door for Riddick to be the starter for the rest of the 2016 season. He projects as a RB1 in PPR leagues the rest of the way. In recent years, it has become clear we want to err on the side of present value for running backs over trying to project way out into future years. As such, the case for Riddick as a low-end dynasty RB1 makes sense.
Devonta Freeman- It’s only two games, but our worst fears of a dreaded RBBC in Atlanta have come to fruition. We clearly have a 50/50 split and last year’s #1 overall fantasy running back has seen both his redraft and dynasty value take a major hit. Freeman has quickly gone from a player going in the late-2nd round of dynasty startups to a dynasty RB2, proving again the fragility of long-term value at the running back position.
Adrian Peterson- Time is undefeated. Even against Adrian Peterson. We knew Peterson’s dynasty value was fragile. History has shown time and again that older running backs are more prone to injuries and can lose a step and become pedestrian players seemingly overnight. Peterson’s years of fantasy relevancy were already very limited and he has now lost one of those years. He also faces a long rehab and uncertain future. His days as a dynasty RB1 are gone and he may not even be a top-25 value at the position as of today.
Quarterback
| Rank | Player | 2016 | Future | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cam Newton | 5 | 25 | 30 |
| 2 | Andrew Luck | 3 | 15 | 18 |
| 3 | Russell Wilson | 2 | 12 | 14 |
| 4 | Jameis Winston | 2 | 12 | 14 |
| 5 | Drew Brees | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 7 | Matthew Stafford | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 8 | Blake Bortles | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 9 | Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 10 | Tom Brady | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 11 | Eli Manning | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Derek Carr | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 13 | Marcus Mariota | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 14 | Carson Palmer | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | Philip Rivers | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 17 | Andy Dalton | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 18 | Carson Wentz | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 19 | Kirk Cousins | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 20 | Matt Ryan | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 21 | Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 22 | Dak Prescott | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 23 | Teddy Bridgewater | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 24 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | Joe Flacco | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 26 | Tyrod Taylor | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 27 | Brock Osweiler | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 28 | Jay Cutler | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 29 | Sam Bradford | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 30 | Tony Romo | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 31 | Jared Goff | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 32 | Paxton Lynch | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 33 | Jacoby Brissett | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Three Risers and Fallers
Cam Newton- Newton's performance over the first two weeks is not necessarily a surprise, but he deserves to move up the dynasty rankings for a couple reasons. First, he has provided evidence that not only was 2015 not a fluke, but the 27-year old may still have not reached his ceiling as a fantasy player. We know he is going to give us an extra 4-5 points on average compared to other quarterbacks just as a runner. If he continues to regularly put up 353-yard, 4-touchdown passing performances (as he did in Week 2), Newton could be an absolutely dominant fantasy force. Second, the slow starts from most of the other quarterbacks we would potentially consider in Newton's same tier (Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, etc.) reinforces just how much separation Newton potentially provides at the position. Even in an era where quarterback is as deep as ever in single quarterback fantasy leagues, Newton is special enough to retain serious dynasty value.
Aaron Rodgers- On the opposite end of the spectrum, Rodgers' struggles through two weeks continue a disturbing trend for the 32-year old passer. He has now gone nine consecutive weeks without passing for 300 yards. You have to go all the way back to Week 10 of 2015, when his miracle hail mary against the Lions put him over 300 yards to find a truly above-average fantasy performance from Rodgers. Jordy Nelson's return has not been the panacea many thought it would be, with Rodgers averaging just 206 passing yards per game through two weeks. From a fantasy perspective, it is time to consider whether Rodgers is now "just a guy" and if he provides any real weekly advantage in our lineups.
Carson Wentz- The first two weeks as a starter for Wentz could not have gone much better. He has been in full control of the Eagles offense and led the team to a pair of easy wins, seamlessly making the jump from FCS football to Week 1 NFL starter. The fantasy impact hasn't been there, but that has to be expected from any rookie quarterback. Longer term, Wentz has shown plenty of reason for optimism. His athleticism is obvious and it is easy to envision him developing into an above-average passer who also provides the key 2-3 points per week of rushing value that allows him to separate from the pack a bit as a fantasy QB1.
Tight End
| Rank | Player | 2016 | Future | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 22 | 28 |
| 2 | Jordan Reed | 5 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Tyler Eifert | 4 | 14 | 18 |
| 4 | Travis Kelce | 3 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | Greg Olsen | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Zach Ertz | 2 | 9 | 11 |
| 7 | Eric Ebron | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Hunter Henry | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | Julius Thomas | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Dwayne Allen | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 12 | Clive Walford | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Coby Fleener | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Martellus Bennett | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Austin Hooper | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 17 | Jason Witten | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Antonio Gates | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 20 | Dennis Pitta | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 21 | Jimmy Graham | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 22 | Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 23 | Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 24 | Tyler Higbee | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 25 | Zach Miller | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 26 | Charles Clay | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 27 | Jacob Tamme | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 28 | Jared Cook | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 29 | Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 30 | Vance McDonald | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 31 | Stephen Anderson | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 32 | Ladarius Green | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 33 | Trey Burton | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 34 | Cameron Brate | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 | Jordan Cameron | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Larry Donnell | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 37 | Will Tye | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 38 | Jack Doyle | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 39 | Richard Rodgers | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 40 | Lance Kendricks | 0 | 0 | 0 |
