Dynasty Trade Value Chart: Week 1 Update

Photo: USA Today Sports

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, that is a trade offer worth strongly considering. 

The Week 1 update will concentrate primarily on the risers and fallers after preseason action. Risers will be noted in Green while fallers will be noted in Orange. 

Quarterback

By its nature, quarterback is the most stable position in terms of value. As such, we saw little significant movement based upon the preseason. The biggest movement came from rookies and second-year players where even the small sample size of a few preseason games can have a real impact upon how we view long-term potential.

Risers

DeShone Kizer While Kizer was a well-regarded second-round pick, he vastly exceeded expectations in preseason action and jumped 10 spots in the overall value rankings. If Kizer can prove this year that he is the long-term answer for the Browns, he could move up quite a bit higher. While Kizer isn’t as natural a runner as Dak Prescott, he is athletic and brings some rushing upside for fantasy owners. 

Carson Wentz Wentz looked exactly like you want a franchise quarterback going into his second season to look throughout training camp. He is poised to put any doubts about his long-term status to doubt if he can continue to show progress throwing to a rebuilt receiving corps. 

Jay Cutler From preparing to begin his career as a color commentator to starting quarterback of the Dolphins, nobody came quite as out of nowhere as Cutler in the past month. He could prove to be a multi-year starter for the Dolphins if he performs well. Ryan Tannehill’s contract is burdensome and he could be a cap casualty if Cutler proves he can put downfield targets DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills to better use. 

Jared Goff Goff at least looked competent in the preseason, which is a major step forward after a miserable rookie year. The addition of Sammy Watkins and strong debuts for rookies Cooper Kupp, Gerald Everett and Josh Reynolds also boost Goff’s prospects. 

Mitchell Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes II III The top-10 picks both lived up to or exceeded their post-draft hype. Both were excellent in extended preseason auditions and have solidified their status as future franchise quarterbacks. Anyone who snagged one of these two in the third-round of rookie drafts has to feel good about their investment. 

Fallers

Ryan Tannehill A serious knee injury will cost Tannehill his 2017 season. He is not guaranteed anything going forward in Miami, who could choose to stick with Cutler in 2018. If not with the Dolphins, Tannehill should get a chance with a quarterback-needy team somewhere next season, so he is worth stashing on your injured reserve. 

Deshaun Watson Everything was going swimmingly early in camp. But over his final three preseason outings, Watson showed real flaws as a passer and may be more of a project than expected. He was typically going as the first rookie quarterback off the board, but was the least impressive of the “big four” in the preseason. 

Blake Bortles While he managed to hang onto the starting job at least temporarily, the arrow is clearly pointing down on Bortles’ career. His confidence looks shaken and he might never recover. 

Running Back

With short-term production at an absolute premium, running back is the most volatile position in terms of dynasty value. We saw some major moves up and down the rankings based upon preseason action. 

In the bigger picture, we’re continuing to see some positional balance return between the running back and wide receiver positions in dynasty. The loaded 2014 wide receiver class and a string of mediocre running back classes tilted things in one direction. But a few weak receiver classes and a loaded 2017 running back class have pushed back against the prevailing narrative. Thus, while the top-12 stayed tightly grouped together, the top backs continue to see their overall value tick up relative to other positions. 

Risers

Kareem Hunt The biggest overall riser in the past month, Hunt has seen his value skyrocket. First, he consistently exceeded expectations early in camp and in the first couple preseason games. Hunt especially impressed and surprised Kansas City coaches with his receiving abilities. Then Spencer Ware went down with a devastating knee injury that blew the door wide open for Hunt to become the feature back for the Chiefs. The opportunity and situation for Hunt is ideal. Andy Reid has never been afraid to lean heavily upon his lead back. Plus, the Kansas City offense is suddenly loaded with young talent (Patrick Mahomes II III, Tyreek Hill and many prime years left for Travis Kelce) and could be explosive for a number of years going forward. While Hunt bumps up into the second-tier of dynasty running backs, it is worth breaking ties in favor of talent. Thus, Hunt still ranks only fifth amongst rookie runners with each of the top four possessing higher long-term upside. 

Isaiah Crowell With the threat of Duke Johnson Jr removed (by a position change to wide receiver) and the possible emergence of a franchise quarterback to boost the entire Browns offense, the arrow is pointing up for Crowell. If he can lock in a long-term extension and Kizer can live up to the preseason hype, Crowell could push up another tier alongside of guys like Devonta Freeman and Jay Ajayi.  

Doug Martin Martin’s dynasty value cratered early in the offseason, but has been steadily rising over the past few months. Impressive OTA performances were followed by a strong preseason. When he returns from suspension, Martin should be a focal point of what could be one of the league’s better offenses. 

Marlon Mack, Jamaal Williams, Chris Carson, Matt Breida, Tarik Cohen, Matthew Dayes and De'Angelo Henderson Running backs drafted in the fourth-round or later (including undrafted) are always a boom-bust investment in rookie drafts. The hit rate is very low historically. However, every year a few late-rounders flash in the preseason and make a move up the depth chart. Once we have seen guys have success against NFL competition, we have to take notice and start to bump them up the rankings. These six runners were the most impressive late-round rookies in camp and each has some fantasy upside. For Marlon Mack and Chris Carson, the upside is obvious. There is a relatively clear path to the starting job if they continue to impress. So too for Jamaal Williams and Matt Breida, who have immediate value as handcuffs. Both are one injury away from making a major impact. Breida is especially intriguing since Carlos Hyde is in the final year of his deal and Kyle Shanahan has a history of turning late-round and undrafted backs into stars. Tarik Cohen, Matthew Dayes and De'Angelo Henderson are stuck behind more established backs. But could have minor value even without moving up the depth chart due to their receiving ability.

Fallers

Ezekiel Elliott The pending suspension and continued off-field issues knock Elliott's value down. How much depends upon how likely you feel he is to have future issues. The behavioral issues are probably more easily corrected than issues with drugs that derailed the careers of players like Josh Gordon, so Elliott shouldn't fall too far. 

Spencer Ware In leagues with injured reserve spots, Ware can be stashed for a year. In leagues where he must be carried on your active roster, it is probably not worth keeping Ware. The knee injury is potentially career-threatening and Ware only had fringe-starter level talent even before going down. 

Tevin Coleman With Devonta Freeman locked into a long-term extension, it is hard to see Coleman as a reliable fantasy starter any time soon (barring injury). Coleman still has two years left on his rookie deal and there is no guarantee he could handle the load as a lead back should he leave Atllanta in 2019 and move into a new system. Unless Atlanta's offense can repeat their historic 2016 production, Coleman probably belongs closer to the tier of handcuffs.  

Paul Perkins There was some hope that Perkins could emerge as a true lead back for the Giants. The preseason wasn’t encouraging in that regard. Shane Vereen spent plenty of time with the first-team offense. Plus, the Giants running game still looks like it will struggle behind a weak offensive line.

Samaje Perine, Jeremy McNichols, and Joe Williams We know running backs drafted in the fourth-round or later are long shots for any sustained fantasy production. But every year, one late-rounder generates early buzz and sneaks into the first-round of rookie drafts. This year it was Samaje Perine. While there is still hope for him in Washington, Perine is a two-down back in a pass-heavy offense with no guarantee of ever beating out Rob Kelley for the starting job. The Joe Williams hype never got as out of control and made more sense given the presence of Kyle Shanahan. But Williams was beat out by Matt Breida and ended up on injured reserve. Jeremy McNichols was cut. He’s a dynamic athlete, but struggled mightily to learn the Tampa Bay offense. 

Wide Receiver

There hasn’t been too much drastic movement amongst the top dynasty receivers. The order at the top remains basically unchanged. The third tier is where we’ve seen some minor moves. Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins are talented, but the questions at quarterback have increased for both. Keenan Allen and Dez Bryant are attached to talented quarterbacks and both of have looked healthy and dominant over the past month, leading to slight bumps. 

The bigger moves have come with young players. Rookies Kenny Golladay and Cooper Kupp were able to build on early buzz while Chad Williams and others weren’t able to carry success in OTAs forward to training camp. 

Risers

DeVante Parker Parker looks poised for a potential breakout season. He seems to have matured and is taking better care of his body. He has also polished up his route-running. Aside from his own improvements, the arrival of Jay Cutler should also significantly boost Parker’s stock. Ryan Tannehill was always hesitant to throw balls into coverage and let his receivers try to make the contested catch. Instead, he’d check it down to Jarvis Landry. Cutler has always been more of a gunslinger and likes bigger outside receivers. Cutler and Parker quickly developed a chemistry and it shouldn’t be a surprise if Parker emerges as the top fantasy receiver in Miami. 

Kelvin Benjamin Reports of Benjamin’s demise were greatly exaggerated. He showed up to camp in good shape and was dominant in his short preseason appearances. He looks like he did as a rookie (pre-ACL injury) and should have a bounce back season. 

Martavis Bryant While he hasn’t yet shot up the rankings, Bryant’s value continues to creep up as he clears hurdles in his return. He was fully reinstated by the NFL and looks locked into the #2 role in Pittsburgh. 

Chris Hogan He was already due for a bump in the rankings when he clearly ran ahead of Malcolm Mitchell throughout camp as the third receiver in New England. But the injury to Julian Edelman is the major catalyst to Hogan’s sky-rocketing dynasty stock. Hogan is a talented receiver with the ability to excel as an underneath target while also having the speed to threaten deep. 

Adam Thielen A potential challenge from Laquon Treadwell never emerged and Thielen looks locked into a major role in an emerging Vikings offense. Thielen will operate as the primary slot receiver, a position that Sam Bradford has peppered with targets. Thielen is a sneaky value target both short-term and over the long haul. 

Cooper Kupp Some questioned how Kupp’s athleticism would translate to the next level. He put most of those concerns to rest with a fantastic preseason. Kupp looks like he will be a high-volume target out of the slot for Jared Goff. 

Kenny Golladay The hype went too far after a two-touchdown performance in an early preseason game. But there is not doubt that Golladay has been one of the most impressive rookie receivers overall. With his size and leaping ability, Golladay could easily emerge as the Lions’ go-to red zone option (a role previously occupied by Anquan Boldin) by midseason. 

Fallers

T.Y. Hilton We have to be careful not to let short-term concerns cause us to overreact in dynasty leagues. But it also must be acknowledged that Hilton’s short-term prospects take a major hit without Andrew Luck. With Luck out for at least the first few weeks (and potentially longer), Hilton is one of the players impacted the most. For rebuilding teams or teams with the depth to overcome a slow start from Hilton, he is a great buy-low target. 

Allen Robinson Things have gone from bad to worse for the Jacksonville offense. Blake Bortles looks to have regressed significantly and Chad Henne isn’t an answer either. Perhaps the answer for Jacksonville comes eventually in the draft or with a better stop-gap in free agency. But Robinson’s value is certainly impacted because it is hard to trust him in your lineup with so much uncertainty at quarterback and weekly game plans that should focus on Leonard Fournette. 

Sammy Watkins Perhaps the Bills new front office is incompetent and made a mistake in getting quarters on the dollar for Watkins. More likely, they are aware of issues with Watkins’ work ethic and/or long-term health that the public is not. The trade is an ominous indicator for Watkins. The landing spot with the Rams is less than ideal as well. While Goff has made progress from his awful rookie season, he is still far away from being even a league-average passer. Watkins somehow still carries a second-round ADP. If you can sell for that type of return, it is probably wise to move Watkins.

Josh Doctson There were some positive signs during the offseason. But Doctson again missed most of training camp (this time with a hamstring injury). The talent is intriguing but Doctson needs to buck the trend and prove he can get on the field before anyone gets too excited about his prospects. 

Breshad Perriman Perriman is in the same boat as Doctson. The injuries are becoming a trend. The former first-rounder has to prove his worth on the field and display some ability to stay healthy before carrying any real dynasty value.

Tight End

The closer the season gets, the more reality sets in that the young tight ends are bigger projects than many expect. For those who drafted one of the talented 2017 rookies, patience will be key.