Dynasty Trade Value Chart: March - Footballguys

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With the NFL Scouting Combine complete, rookie values are starting to come into focus. In the March edition of the Dynasty Trade Value Chart, we will go into some depth on the conclusions we can draw from the combine and the trade value of each of the rookie picks. With many leagues moving to the Superflex format, the Dynasty Trade Value Chart for the quarterback position has been updated this month to include a new column for Superflex value. The Superflex format raises the dynasty trade value of some quarterbacks more than others and we will take a look at why that is the case and highlight some quarterbacks who see the biggest value boosts.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering.

Rookie Pick Value

The combine results confirmed the overall strengths and weaknesses of this rookie dynasty class. In terms of weaknesses, it is not a deep class at quarterback or running back and lacks a slam-dunk superstar at wide receiver. The class does have some real strengths, however. This is a deep group of prospects at both wide receiver and tight end, with at least a half dozen pass catchers likely to go in the first round and a big group who should go in the second and third round. The top wide receivers almost all tested really well and bolstered their dynasty stock. Plus, while quarterback and running back aren’t deep, at the top of the position groups, Kyler Murray and Josh Jacobs both have massive fantasy upside.

Let’s quickly look at what the tiers might look like after the NFL Draft:

Top running back tier

Unfortunately, Josh Jacobs didn’t do anything at the combine. He’s not a guy with huge speed concerns (probably 4.55 or so), so it’s not a big red flag that a minor injury kept him out. However, his lack of participation slows down the hype train a bit and should keep his startup draft ADP depressed for the time being. Jacobs’ landing spot will be huge but if he goes in the first round as expected, there might be a lot of debate this spring and summer whether Jacobs or one of the top wide receivers deserves to go 1.01.

Top wide receiver tier

Saturday at the NFL Combine was a good day for most of the top wide receiver prospects. While thing still seem much more up in the air than normal in terms of how these guys all stack up, there seems to be at least some consensus in the dynasty community as to who the top four fantasy wide receiver prospects are in some order: D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Hakeem Butler, and N’Keal Harry.

Draft twitter freaked out over D.K. Metcalf’s poor times in the short shuttle and 3-cone almost as much as it did over his blazing 4.33 40-time. The college injury history, mediocre production, and unique physical traits (both good and bad) all combine to make Metcalf a polarizing prospect with a huge ceiling but higher-than-normal risk of busting. Despite the risk factors, Metcalf is the favorite to be the first receiver off of the board in April.

Metcalf’s teammate A.J. Brown was quietly one of the bigger winners at the combine. His 4.49 time at 226 pounds was a pleasant surprise and should solidify him as a top-50 NFL Draft pick. He also has a PPR-friendly game and is a potential volume receiver in the right offense.

N’Keal Harry was also a pleasant surprise with a 4.53 forty time. He also solidified his spot as a top-50 prospect and has upside as a possession receiver and red zone weapon.

Hakeem Butler and his 4.48 time at 6’5, 227 pounds would have been a much bigger story if Metcalf’s 4.33 didn’t steal all of the headlines. Unlike Metcalf, Butler didn’t perform all the drills and thus we don’t have short shuttle or 3-cone times. Those will be key indicators if he performs at his pro day. Butler is a physical freak in his own right and his college production and more well-rounded game give him almost as much upside as Metcalf with perhaps a bit less risk.

Running Back Second-Tier in Good Spots

The combine was a mixed bag for the top running backs at the combine. There were not a lot of standout performances and many of the top testing results came from lower-ranked prospects. It is a group with just a handful of guys likely to go in the second or third round. The second tier after the combine probably includes Darrell Henderson, David Montgomery, Damien Harris, Miles Sanders, Trayveon Williams, Justice Hill , and Rodney Anderson.

Odds say that only two or three of the running backs in this tier are likely to land on teams with a major opportunity at the position given their mid-round draft stock. Teams like the Panthers, Rams, Cowboys, Saints, and Jaguars are all in the market for backups and could use 3rd or 4th round picks on the position. Let’s assume we have two of these top running backs land in spots with a clear path to being the top back while the rest fall into murkier committee situations (or clear backups). If so, the guys in attractive spots should be hot dynasty commodities while most of the rest of the group would slide into the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

Darrell Henderson (4.49) was able to put to bed any concerns about his long speed and looks like a strong Day 2 prospect. He should be a mid-1st round rookie draft target if he lands in a good spot.

David Montgomery (4.63) tested as a below-average athlete, which was expected. It doesn’t hurt his dynasty stock too much but it certainly didn’t help. The mediocre testing also increases the chances of him sliding into the 3rd round of the NFL draft, where he could be drafted as a top backup behind an established starter.

Wide Receiver Second Tier

The biggest strength of this rookie class is how deep and talented the wide receiver class is and we saw that Saturday at the NFL Combine. There are so many wide receivers who should go in the top-75 overall, which is going to make late-1st and 2nd-round rookie picks valuable.

Even when adjusted for size, Kelvin Harmon tested as a below-average athlete overall. He’s still an intriguing dynasty prospect but might belong at the top of the second tier instead of ranked alongside the top guys.

Marquise Brown couldn’t participate due to injury but his weigh-in (5’0, 166) was disappointing. He is still appearing in the first round of media mocks, which is mildly surprising.

Miles Boykin, Parris Campbell, and Emanuel Hall were huge winners in the testing, earning the top three SPARQ scores at the position. These were productive college players at big programs and can’t be written off as just “workout warriors.”

Deebo Samuel, Andy Isabella, and Riley Ridley each put in solid performances as well.

The Top Tight Ends

Noah Fant dominated the combine with one of the best overall performances we’ve seen in the last decade. Running 4.50 at 249 pounds drew all of the attention but he also was outstanding in the change of direction drills and measures of explosiveness. His 6.81 3-cone and 39.5” vertical jump were easily the best at the position. Fant is going to be a first rounder in the NFL draft and should also go in the first round of rookie drafts.

T.J. Hockenson also put in a strong overall showing at the combine. While none of his numbers leap off of the page, he had the 3rd-highest SPARQ score at the position. Combined with his excellent college performance, he too looks like a first-round prospect for both the NFL and dynasty leagues.

The Top Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray didn’t participate in on-field testing but still was a big winner after weighing in at 207 pounds. Plus, the big news coming out of the combine is Murray looks to be the heavy favorite to go #1 overall. His elite athleticism makes him a strong fantasy prospect as well. He could emerge as the 1.01 in Superflex leagues and has enough upside to justify a second-round selection in one-quarterback leagues.

Dwayne Haskins and Drew Lock don’t have much fantasy appeal in single quarterback leagues but should be first rounders in Superflex.

Quarterback

Superflex Value

Most new dynasty leagues are the Superflex format, which allows you to start a second quarterback in a special flex spot. Moving forward, the dynasty trade value chart will always include an extra column for the quarterback with Superflex trade values.

Since this is a new feature, let’s look at an analogy to explain why we don’t just use a simple multiplier to move from single quarterback league dynasty values to super flex values. If you are offered the choice of either (A) $400 per year for three years or (B) $100 per year for eight years, it is an easy choice to take option A. Now, imagine if $300 is added to both offers. Now your choice is (A) $700 per year for three years or (B) $400 per year for eight years. It is now an easy choice to take option B.

In the exact same way, longer-term starters at the quarterback position get a bigger relative boost than older quarterbacks do because they benefit more from the lowered fantasy bar each year going forward.

News and Notes

The news that the Cardinals are willing to sell low after one year with Josh Rosen means his value takes a real hit. Even if he lands as a starter elsewhere (Washington?), Rosen has a lot to prove and may face an uphill battle to lock down a long-term role as a starter.

Nick Foles looks like he is going to land a relatively lucrative deal to be a starter, possibly in Jacksonville. He has solid Superflex league value but if Jacksonville is the landing spot, it is hard to get excited about his chances of putting up QB1 numbers in the single quarterback format.

Running Back

News and Notes

Le’Veon Bell is by far the biggest name to watch in free agency. Rumors have the New York Jets as the likeliest landing spot. While the Jets offense isn’t one that will inspire much confidence, this would be a sneaky strong landing spot for Bell. Sam Darnold showed enough flashes to believe he can be a true franchise quarterback and he is badly in need of weapons. Bell would instantly be the top option in the passing attack in addition to being heavily involved as a runner. Bell will not turn 30 years old until 2022 and the year off should help his longevity. He might be undervalued and if his landing spot doesn’t inspire immediate excitement in the dynasty community, Bell could be a strong buy-low candidate.

Tevin Coleman is the only other free agent who has a decent shot at landing a lead back role in free agency. He is a candidate to see his value shoot up in the same way Jerick McKinnon’s did last spring.

Comments from Lions and Packers coaches at the Combine media sessions about sticking with more of a committee approach will not boost the dynasty values of Kerryon Johnson or Aaron Jones. The reality next fall may not match what we are hearing now but it might be best to approach these two backfields with some caution.

Wide Receiver

News and Notes

A weak crop of free agent wide receivers could make for very little dynasty value movement at the position in March. Most wide receiver-needy teams will most likely to just wait until April to take advantage of the deepest rookie class at the position in five years. While there aren’t any free agent who are likely to be impact fantasy players in new spots, a few could at least see decent value boosts after changing teams.

Tyrell Williams is probably never going to be an impact fantasy option but he has some similarities in situation to Marvin Jones, who saw a solid value boost after escaping from A.J. Green’s shadow in Cincinnati. Williams could be a 1,000-yard receiver in the right offense. He has a shot at landing a contract of $10M+ per season.

Adam Humphries might be the top slot receiver on the market. If he lands in a high-powered passing offense, there is some modest PPR upside. New Orleans would be a best-case scenario.

Aside from free agency, Antonio Brown’s situation is the news to follow in March. It will be interesting to see if any team is willing to give up a first rounder for his services. If so, it would bode well for his chances of rolling right along at 10-12 targets per game even in a new offense.

While Brown burning all of his bridges on the way out of Pittsburgh doesn’t have any direct impact on his fantasy numbers, it still causes a slight drag on his fantasy value. He is 31 years old and is going to lose a step or two soon. Great teammates (like Larry Fitzgerald) are more likely to retain a spot on an NFL roster as they age than are guys who are negative locker room presences. The juice may not be worth the squeeze as far as Brown is concerned in the coming years.

Tight End