The 5 Riskiest Dynasty Quarterbacks

Kevin Coleman's The 5 Riskiest Dynasty Quarterbacks Kevin Coleman Published 03/27/2024

Managing a dynasty roster requires navigating the ever-changing landscape of player values. Identifying and evaluating risky assets is crucial for making informed decisions. Knowing when to invest in or divest from these assets can be the most challenging part of the format. Balancing risk and reward is essential for long-term success in dynasty leagues. As my fellow Footballguy Adam Harstad pointed out, dynasty is a game of pricing risks. Understanding how to price risks and when to move either towards those assets or away from them is where you will fail as a manager or succeed.

Recognizing the varying levels of risk associated with dynasty assets is also crucial. Factors such as age, injuries, scheme changes, perceived value drops, production declines, and increased competition contribute to a player's overall risk profile. In the upcoming article series for Footballguys, I'll explore the specific risks associated with each position and provide strategies for effectively managing these risks in dynasty leagues.

Navigating risks in the quarterback position is crucial in Superflex leagues. Factors like injuries, aging veterans, and the lack of young breakout stars add complexity and risk to dynasty quarterback evaluations. Success in these leagues often hinges on effectively managing these risks and making informed decisions to build a competitive roster. Let's examine five quarterbacks who are a risk heading into the 2024 offseason.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

  • Dynasty Superflex ADP: 9.24 QB8
  • KTC Ranking: QB9
  • Footballguys Ranking: QB7
  • Buy/Sell/Hold: Buy

Overview

Richardson may be one of dynasty's biggest boom-or-bust assets this offseason. He showed an elite ceiling in his limited starts in 2023. In his debut, Richardson scored 21.9 fantasy points, coming in at QB4 overall for the week, and in week four, he scored 29..6 fantasy points, coming in at QB2 overall. Those starts showed what his ceiling could be: a top-five quarterback each week in fantasy. Richardson's rushing ability was well known, but he did demonstrate that he may be a better passer than initially thought when he was drafted out of Florida. The other positive for Richardson is that he plays for Shane Steichen. Steichen turned Jalen Hurts from a below-average passer to one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He improved Hurt's yards per attempt, adjusted air yards per attempt, and true completion percentage in the two seasons he was there and vaulted Hurts into a tier 1 dynasty asset. If Richardson stays healthy, it's safe to assume Steichen can do the same for Richardson's value.

The Risk

It starts and ends with his injury history and lack of experience. When he was drafted, he had only started 13 times in college. Since the 2008 draft, seven quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round with fewer than 20 collegiate starts. Those seven were:

Of all seven, Kyler Murray is the only one who has overcome the lack of experience and become a viable QB1 in fantasy. Like Murray, Richardson possesses elite athleticism and is a rushing threat, which eases the concern. With the injury ending Richardson's season last year after just four games, there should be concern whether that lack of playing time will hinder his development as a quarterback.

Bottom Line

Richardson is an elite athlete on a tailor-made offense and a team willing to build around him. The Colts have not been shy about their desire to build around Richardson this offseason and made it a priority to re-sign their WR1 Michael Pittman Jr to a new three-year extension. There is also a possibility that they will add more weapons in the draft and possibly with their first-round pick. If they do that, we could be looking at the possibility that Richardson's potential range of outcomes is QB1 overall in fantasy. While he has risk, his talent and upside are worth his current dynasty price.

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Will Levis, Tennessee

  • Dynasty Superflex ADP:95.50 QB28
  • KTC Ranking: QB23
  • Footballguys Ranking: QB25
  • Buy/Sell/Hold: Hold/Sell

Overview

Levis had an up-and-down rookie season in 2023. He completed 58.4 percent of his passes for 1,808 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions. Looking at the raw numbers, most of his production came from two games. His first start was against the Falcons, where he threw for four touchdowns, and against the Dolphins, where he had a career-high 327 yards. In those two games, he finished as QB6 and QB15 overall. However, outside those two games, the Titans offense struggled to find an identity, and the Levis did not win another game under center.

Fast forward to this offseason, and there's renewed hope for the former second-rounder. The Titans are under new leadership, having hired former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan as their head coach. With Callahan as the coordinator, the Bengals' offense ranked seventh in points per game (26.1), eighth in yards per game (360.5), and fifth in passing yards per game (265). Callahan's offensive strategy will shift towards a more pass-focused scheme, departing from the Titans' historically run-heavy offenses. His work with backup quarterback Jake Browning this season should be seen as a positive for Levis' development. The Titans have also been aggressive in free agency, adding receiver Calvin Ridley, running back Tony Pollard, center Lloyd Cushenberry, and guard Saahdiq Charles. They are doing everything they can to build around the second-year quarterback.

The Risk

Callahan, being the new head coach, is a positive for Levis. The question will remain about how committed they are to the 2nd round pick. They will not have control over a 5th round option due to his draft capital, and this is essentially a one-year audition for him. If he struggles this season, this coaching staff could look to bring in their guy moving forward, and Levis would be looking for a new place to play as soon as the 2025 season. The Titans' offensive weapons look good on paper, but DeAndre Hopkins will be 32 years old next season and will struggle to stay healthy. Calvin Ridley has looked like a shell of himself since leaving the Falcons and being suspended for a year due to gambling issues. Treylon Burks has disappointed since being drafted, and Chigozlem Okonkwo needs to live up to his potential. The Titan's offensive line was one of the worst units in football last season, giving up the third most sacks in the league with 64. While their free-agent additions have been promising, there is still much uncertainty about the position. They have the 7th overall pick, which they could use on a receiver or offensive tackle. But both positions need help, and they only have so many draft picks.

Bottom Line

Levis is one of those dynasty assets that will be price-dependent based on your league's market. If he's cheap enough, he's not a bad player to buy if you are desperate for a QB2 on a contender. If you are not a contender and can get a price that is better than what you invested in him last season, I believe you should move him and re-roll at the position. It truly comes down to market value in your league settings. I would wait to see how they handle the 1.07 pick, and if they add an elite offensive tackle or wide receiver, you could get more value out of him after the draft. You have to move him if there is any chance of you attaining a future first-round pick.

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Brock Purdy, San Francisco

  • Dynasty Superflex ADP: 30.50 QB16
  • KTC Ranking: QB14
  • Footballguys Ranking: QB17
  • Buy/Sell/Hold: Buy/Hold

Overview

Purdy is the best example of a team elevating a quarterback and allowing him to succeed in their system. He had an outstanding year in his first full year as the 49ers quarterback. He threw for 4,280 yards (5th) and 31 touchdowns (3rd). He had a league-leading 133.0 passer rating. More impressive were his deep throw numbers. On throws 20 yards or more, Purdy was 30/47 (63.8%) with 956 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just one interception. He registered a 26.5 ADOT and led the league with a 99.9 PFF passing grade. From a fantasy perspective, he finished as a top-10 quarterback, averaging 18.7 FP/G and 299.60 fantasy points overall. Yet he is only being drafted as QB16 in dynasty leagues this offseason. He has fit seamlessly into Kyle Shanahan's system, and as long as Shanahan is the head coach, Purdy has a safe floor as a fantasy asset.

The Risk

The reality with Purdy is some managers, and NFL fans will never get over the fact that he was drafted with the 262nd NFL pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The term that gets thrown around the most often is he is a system quarterback, and while that may not be wrong, Shanahan's system is the exact system you would want any quarterback to be in. The risk is Purdy is directly tied to Shanahan who has now lost two Super Bowls with the 49ers and, at some point, could wear out his welcome in San Francisco. There is also a looming contract extension for Purdy after next season that will impact the 49ers salary cap room. Up till now, they have been able to acquire or pay for key offensive weapons in Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams, and Christian McCaffrey. But when they finally have to pay Purdy, we could see some attrition among the offensive side of the football, and the lingering question is whether Purdy is good enough to elevate a roster without so much talent. Those key offensive pieces above are getting older, and this roster could look completely different in two years.

Bottom Line

Purdy has done enough to prove he belongs in the league. He should be in the Shanahan system for at least the next two years, and at his current market value, he's a buy in superflex leagues. With the need for quarterback talent around the league, Purdy will be around for a long time. Worst case scenario, he follows a Jared Goff-like career trajectory which would still make him a valuable quarterback asset in fantasy.

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Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

  • Dynasty Superflex ADP: 59.50 QB21
  • KTC Ranking: QB20
  • Footballguys Ranking: QB19
  • Buy/Sell/Hold: Buy

Overview

Bryce Young had an abysmal rookie season. He completed less than 60 percent of his passes and threw for only 11 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. He averaged just 10.5 FP/G, which ranked him as QB39, and accumulated only 158.2 fantasy points for the entire season. The Panthers team severely underperformed, leading to first-year head coach Frank Reich's firing midway through the season. But there is some hope for the second-year quarterback out of Alabama. The Panthers made a fantastic hire this coaching cycle, hiring Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Dave Canales. Canales specializes in quarterback resurrections. He served as Seattle's passing game coordinator in Russell Wilson's best career year and, in 2022, helped Geno Smith have the best season of his career. A season that saw Smith win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Then, in 2023, he revitalized journeyman quarterback Baker Mayfield's career. He led Baker Mayfield to his best statistical season on record with 4,044 yards, a 64.3 completion percentage, 28 passing touchdowns, and a 94.6 passer rating. His scheme highlights Young's strengths, including his mental toughness and ability to make plays out of structure. Young should be more free to make plays and be able to play loose in this system. The Panthers also went out and acquired their WR1 this offseason in Diontae Johnson. Johnson is only 28 and gives Young a reliable playmaker to get the ball to in the offense. The Panthers will also look to add weapons to this offense through the draft.

The Risk

Organization stability is one of the most important factors in determining whether second-year quarterbacks can take that next leap or develop. Unfortunately for Young, the Panthers owner David Tepper is a loose cannon. While hiring Canales was a great decision, Tepper has a reputation for having a short temper and unrealistic expectations. If Young struggles again early this season, who knows how much of a leash Tepper will give the young quarterback to develop. There's also the narrative that Young was overmatched in his first season. His small stature will always be a critique, and there were some process issues that arose last year. It seemed like he didn't see the field well, and we won't know whether that was because of the scheme until he plays in 2024. He had a historically bad season and will need to show drastic improvement to solidify his value in fantasy.

Bottom Line

While he had a down 2023 season, Young is too talented to repeat it. He has a new offensive-minded head coach who is building s system to highlight Young's strengths as a passer. The team is committed to adding talent to the roster, and Young will benefit. In superflex leagues, his value is about as low as it will get this offseason, and he's a perfect target for rebuilding teams. While he may never be a high-end QB1-type asset, he can serve as a serviceable QB2 on dynasty teams. With his draft capital and new system, he will be a target of mine all offseason.

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Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

  • Dynasty Superflex ADP: 9.50 QB7
  • KTC Ranking: QB7
  • Footballguys Ranking: QB8
  • Buy/Sell/Hold: Hold

Overview

Herbert had a disastrous 2023 season. Due to injuries, he played in only thirteen games and had some of the worst statistical outputs of his career. He had a career-low completion percentage, yards, and touchdowns. As a fantasy asset, he was inconsistent, and while he did produce six top ten weeks, his inconsistent play made him hard to start throughout the season. The down year for Herbert has led to massive ramifications for the franchise. The Chargers started their rebuild by firing head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco. They then hired Michigan's Jim Harbaugh to be their head coach and Greg Roman to be their offensive coordinator. As a fantasy asset, he has averaged over 17 fantasy points per game in the last two seasons and is widely considered a top quarterback in the NFL. He's locked into a long-term contract with the Chargers, and even though there are rumors that he can be moved, the dead cap hit would be $108.5 million if they moved him before June 1st. It's simply not happening. That contract provides a safe floor for his dynasty value.

The Risk

While he remains one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, he may also be the riskiest dynasty asset at the position. With the additions of Harbaugh and Roman, it would make sense that they will shift toward a new run-oriented offense. Fantasy analyst Denny Carter broke down Harbaugh's tenure with the 49ers, and here is how they finished in passing attempts each year: 31st, 31st, 32nd, and 29th. At Michigan, they were 117th out of 130th in passing rate and relied heavily on their rushing attack. The caveat to those numbers is that he had Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick as quarterbacks in San Francisco, and Herbert is much better than they were. The Chargers also have changed their offensive weapons this offseason. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler were cap cuts this offseason, and right now, their best weapon on offense is Joshua Palmer. They added Hayden Hurst and Will Dissly in free agency, along with Gus Edwards at running back, which certainly makes the heavy rushing scheme look more and more plausible. They will most likely address their lack of weapons in the draft with their 1.05 pick. If they add a talent like Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. or LSU WR Malik Nabers it will alleviate some of the concerns, but Herbert may not be in a pass-first offense for the first time in his career.

Bottom Line

Herbert is a talented quarterback who, when healthy, is one of the best in the league. He's shown to be a consistent low-end QB1 in his career, but his team is transitioning into a Harbaugh era that represents a lot of uncertainty. The key to Herbert's fantasy success with Harbaugh will likely come down to his touchdown rate, which should be a concern for dynasty managers. If you have Herbert in dynasty, he's a hold for me unless you can tier up to a player like Lamar Jackson or tier down to a player like Kyler Murray or Anthony Richardson for plus assets. Herbert has a safe floor, but with the changes in Los Angeles, that floor could be falling.

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Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @Daboys_22, check out my archive with Footballguys, and be sure to subscribe to our Footballguys Dynasty Show!

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