The Dynasty Investor: 2023 Recap and Update

Photo: USA Today Sports

To recap the process, the way we measure value in the Dynasty Investor is by looking at a player's KeepTradeCut (KTC) vs. his fantasy point per game (PPG) in a ratio called the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. P/E = KTC / PPG / 10. Then, you compare that player's P/E ratio to a like-for-like cluster of players from an age, production, and potential perspective. Players in the same cluster should be valued similarly in the market on a P/E basis. If they aren't, then an arbitrage opportunity exists to create value. Examining the interrelationship between a player's age, KTC, and PPG makes this process unique. Today, we will provide a 2023 fantasy season recap, close out favorable/unfavorable trades, and initiate new buy and sell recommendations.

Key Points Up Front

• 2023 Dynasty Investor Recap - added ~15,000 KTC in 2023
• Our highest conviction ideas (all buys) at each position are QB Kyler Murray, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Diontae Johnson, and TE Kyle Pitts.
• Upgraded from Sell to Hold (closed): Raheem Mostert
• Downgraded from Buy to Hold (closed): Brandin Cooks, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and David Bell.
• Upgraded from Hold to Buy (initiation): Jaylen Waddle and Alvin Kamara.
• Downgraded from Hold to Sell (initiation): Brock Purdy, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, and Isaiah Likely.

2023 Dynasty Investor Recap

We had another successful year at the Dynasty Investor. We closed 19 trades in 2023 for a total of ~15,000 KTC added (similar to 2022's results on about half as many trades); in player terms, that equates to about one Patrick Mahomes II plus a Kyle Pitts worth of value. Of course, this is a make-believe portfolio, and I'm buying/selling with no transaction costs, but if you are reading this, we hope we added a little value to your process. We will talk more about this below, but we are starting 2024 in a bit of a hole as we close out some unfavorable recommendations made in 2022. But the hope is to more than make up for it and put up similar, if not better, results in 2024.

Ratings

As a reminder, the Buy rating means we are actively in the market trying to buy a player, and we want to be overweight that player in our portfolio of teams. A Sell rating means we are actively trying to sell the player, and we want to underweight him in our portfolio of teams. And a Hold rating is just that, not trying to buy or sell and just wanting to be about market weight in our portfolio of teams. Hold-rated players can still have upside/downside or be fairly valued. So, let's take a quick look at these rating changes.

Closed Trades

Today, we are upgrading Raheem Mostert from Sell to Hold and downgrading misses in Brandin Cooks, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and David Bell.

Upgrade Raheem Mostert from Sell to Hold

We recommended selling Mostert at a KTC of 3086 (start of the chart below) and put a target KTC on him of 2500. Mostert's KTC is 2523, which is within 1% of the initial target price. The trade is a favorable 18% result, or 563 KTC was added.

Downgrade Brandin Cooks, JuJu Smith-Schuster, & David Bell from Buy to Hold

We are locking in our losses and doing a group downgrade of Brandin Cooks, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and David Bell. Please reference the track record (below) for the complete record of how these unfavorable trades played out; in summary, these three trades combined for ~4,900 KTC lost. We are down on a few other trades on a mark-to-market basis but are sticking with them. For example, we are down big on Trey Lance, Diontae Johnson (still), Treylon Burks, Deshaun Watson, Noah Fant, and others. There are many lessons to be learned from these misses (to be addressed in a future Dynasty Investor article), but a couple of quick ones are: 1. Age is important in dynasty fantasy football, and 2. Be faster to cut bait on prospects that don't pan out (even if we liked them as prospects). One might say we're not heeding the lessons learned if we're holding out hope on guys like Rondale Moore or Treylon Burks, but we still think they can bounce back in KTC.

Dynasty Investor Top picks

Here are our current top picks, i.e., open recommendations. And following that, we'll go through some of the new initiations in more detail.

Our highest conviction ideas (all buys) at each position are still QB Kyler Murray, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Diontae Johnson, and TE Kyle Pitts.

Top Buys:

• Justin Herbert (~10% upside)
• Kyler Murray (~10%)
• Bryce Young (~25%)
• Deshaun Watson (~60%)
• Trey Lance (100%+)
• Jonathan Taylor (~25%)
• Kendre Miller (~5%)
• Alvin Kamara (~15%) UPGRADE
• Jaylen Waddle (~10%) UPGRADE
• Drake London (~5%)
• Tee Higgins (~10%)
• Diontae Johnson (~55%)
• Treylon Burks (~90%)
• Rondale Moore (~95%)
• Mark Andrews (~20%)
• Kyle Pitts (~40%)
• Greg Dulcich (~40%)
• Noah Fant (~70%)

Top Sells:

• CJ Stroud (~10% downside)
• Brock Purdy (~10%) DOWNGRADE
• Kyren Williams (~10%) DOWNGRADE
• Isiah Pacheco (~15%) DOWNGRADE
• Isaiah Likely (~15%) DOWNGRADE

Upgrade to Buy Jaylen Waddle

Today, we are upgrading Jaylen Waddle to Buy. His price target is ~6250 KTC, which is ~10% upside from current levels. Waddle scored 14.2 PPG in 2023, and we expect him to score closer to his 3-year average PPG of ~15 in 2024.

Charting:

We are calling for a bounce from just above the minus-one standard deviation to closer to the plus-one standard deviation.

Trades:

• Jaylen Waddle = 1.06
• Waddle = Tyreek Hill
• Waddle = Kyren Williams

Upgrade to Buy Alvin Kamara

Today, we are upgrading Alvin Kamara to Buy. His price target is ~3800 KTC, which is ~15% upside from current levels. In 2023, Kamara underproduced his expected PPG by two, and we expect some of that to reverse in 2024 without some of the uncertainty Kamara faced at the beginning of the 2023 season. We also have a Buy on Kendre Miller, but we think both Kamara and Miller can increase in KTC simultaneously.

Charting:

We are calling for a bounce from just below the minus one standard deviation to midway between the minus one standard deviation and Kamar's average KTC over the past three years, keeping in mind we aren't expecting a full bounce to average as age is a potential concern.

Trades:

• Alvin Kamara = 2024 mid-2nd
• Kamara = Jaylen Warren
• Kamara = Isaiah Likely + 2024 4th

Downgrade to Sell Brock Purdy

Today, we are downgrading Brock Purdy to Sell. His price target is ~5000 KTC, which is ~10% downside from current levels. Purdy outproduced his expected PPG in 2023 by five (highest QB +/- by far and away), and we think there will be some reversion in 2024. We see Purdy in the ~16-17 PPG range for 2024, compared to earning 19.4 PPG in 2023.

Charting:

We think Purdy's KTC falls off about 750 KTC from here.

Trades:

• Brock Purdy = 2024 early-1st
• Purdy + 2024 mid-3rd = Kyler Murray

Downgrade to Sell Kyren Williams

Today, we are downgrading Kyren Williams to Sell. His price target is ~4700 KTC, which is ~10% downside from current levels. Williams earned 21.4 PPG in 2023, outperformed his expected PPG by 1.1, and we think he is more of a 15-18 PPG type guy. So, we are calling for a reversion in PPG in 2024.

Charting:

We are calling for a fall of ~650 KTC as his KTC exhibits some reversion after a massive 2023 season.

Trades:

• Kyren Williams = 1.06
• Williams = Jonathan Taylor
• Williams = Jaylen Waddle

Downgrade to Sell Isiah Pacheco

Today, we are downgrading Isiah Pacheco to Sell. His price target is ~3900 KTC, which is ~15% downside from current levels. We have Pacheco trading at a P/E of ~30x, and we think his peer group cluster trades ~26-27x, and we are expecting him to revert closer to peer group valuations.

Charting:

We are calling for a fall from just above the plus one standard deviation to just under the plus one standard deviation.

Trades:

• Isiah Pacheco = 1.10
• Pacheco = Kyle Pitts
• Pacheco = Bryce Young

Downgrade to Sell Isaiah Likely

Today, we are downgrading Isaiah Likely to Sell. His price target is ~2500 KTC, which is ~15% downside from current levels. Likely outperformed his expected PPG by 1.9 in 2023, and we anticipate that to revert in 2024.

Charting:

This is the KTC of both Ravens' tight ends on one chart. Mark Andrews is the Ravens' TE1 and was injured in 2023. After his injury, we upgraded him to a Buy at the Dynasty Investor. Now we are adding to that bet by betting against TE2 Isaiah Likely. I'll draw your attention to the right side of the above chart, where you can see the significant drop-off in KTC after Andrew's injury and the corresponding considerable rise in Likely. The two lines converged closer to each other as we crossed into 2024. We are calling for Andrews and Likely to diverge this year, Andrews to push upwards and Likely to push downwards.

We are calling for Likely to fall from above plus one standard deviation to closer to his average KTC over the past couple of years.

Trades:

• Isaiah Likely = 2024 2nd
• Likely + 2024 4th = Diontae Johnson
• Likely = Dontayvion Wicks or Luke Musgrave

Track record

The total KTC added through The Dynasty Investor process is now up to 26,857 KTC.

Total KTC Value Added = 26,857

Thanks for reading! If you want to learn more about Dynasty Fantasy Football and the P/E ratio, please follow me on Twitter @_jasonstein and let me know your questions and how I can help.