A Little Help From Our Friends: Overvalued Players

Photo: USA Today Sports

If you ask most fantasy managers why they play this game that we love, their answers will tend to boil down to two things: camaraderie and competition. We like to play with our friends, and we want to win. We here at Footballguys can relate, and that was a motivation for this three-part article.

We reached out to 17 of our friends from the fantasy football industry and asked them three questions that will help you win your league this season:

• Who is the player you are planting your flag for in 2021?
• Name three players who are undervalued based on ADP.
• Name three players who are overvalued based on ADP.

This article is part three of the series and will cover overvalued players. You can find the experts' responses to which player they are planting a flag for here and their undervalued players here. But, before we dig into their answers, let's meet the experts.

As mentioned, we asked each expert to give you three players that are currently overvalued based on their ADP. These are the players to avoid for 2021. Here is a quick rundown of the votes:

In total, 31 different players were selected by our pool of experts:

Many players were mentioned multiple times:

Two players from this list, Antonio Gibson and DeVonta Smith, also appeared on the flag plant list. While, one player, Julio Jones, was listed as undervalued.

The Overvalued Players

Kyle Gerard Bauer (@theFellowKGB), The Fantasy Fellowship

Raheem Mostert: We love a healthy Raheem Mostert, but he has not shown us that he can handle an RB1 workload. The 49ers moved up in the 3rd Round to select Trey Sermon, who took most of the majority of reps with the 1st team in June, while Mostert is limited. Mostert is like a Ferrari and cannot sustain any damage to fulfill his 5th round ADP, so target wide receivers or a quarterback in his range--or wait for Sermon instead.

Mark Andrews: Andrews was the TE6 last year but needed an injury to Nick Boyle to fully thrive. He posted five games below seven fantasy points (PPR) and just three top-12 games before Boyle's injury. With Boyle back and Sammy Watkins plus Rashod Bateman added this offseason, this potentially spreads out targets and snaps in Baltimore. Andrews is TD-dependent and too boom-bust to trust in Round 5. Pay up for Kyle Pitts or take Hockenson.

Melvin Gordon: The writing was on the wall when Denver traded up to select Javonte Williams with the 35th overall pick. Gordon scored ten touchdowns and finished as RB13 last year but also lost four fumbles and posted a woeful 4.9 ypc on 32 receptions. Javonte will eat into Gordon's carries and passing down work and should eventually overtake Gordon as the lead back this year, making his 6th round ADP too rich for me.

Andy Behrens (@andybehrens), Yahoo Fantasy

J.K. Dobbins: Without question, Dobbins is one of the most talented young ball carriers in the game. He's coming off a ridiculously efficient season in which he averaged 6.0 yards per carry and reached the end-zone nine times on 152 touches. But fantasy-wise, he's not a great bet to outperform his ADP. Dobbins remains very much in a committee arrangement with Gus Edwards, and neither back is likely to see 30 targets in 2021. So in any sort of PPR format, Dobbins needs a downgrade.

Will Fuller: Fuller is an electric downfield threat, one of the most explosive receivers in today's NFL. He is not, however, the only Dolphins wideout who fits that description. First-rounder Jaylen Waddle is also a burner, and the rookie has a pre-existing rapport with Tua Tagovailoa, his former college quarterback. DeVante Parker remains in the team picture, too. It's not exactly a given that Tua can keep three receivers viable for fantasy purposes, making each of them a risk.

Devin Singletary: I'm not sure what Singletary's ADP would have to be for me to consider him a reasonable value, but this ain't it. He's tied to a committee rushing attack with a sneaky-good second-year back also in the mix (Zack Moss), and, more importantly, his team's quarterback happens to be Buffalo's primary goal-line runner. So we shouldn't view Singletary as anything more than a desperation flex.

Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT), The Fantasy Footballers

James Robinson: James Robinson shouldn't be going in the 5th round. There are concerns regarding his workload after seeing 85+% of the team's running back opportunities just a year ago, especially after the team spent a 1st round NFL Draft pick on Travis Etienne. Moreover, Urban Meyer brought in his former Ohio State back, Carlos Hyde, to make this a full-blown RBBC. No thanks.

J.K. Dobbins: Last season, Gus Edwards had more total carries, carries from inside the 10-yard line, and carries from inside the 5-yard line than JK Dobbins, so why is Dobbins going in the early 3rd round of full PPR leagues when he won't catch passes? In two years with Greg Roman as offensive coordinator, Baltimore running backs have combined for catch totals of 41 and 38. So in full PPR, he doesn't have the ceiling we're looking for in the third round.

Ronald Jones II: Ronald Jones II is in no man's land in the 8th round of full PPR formats. We saw the team lean more heavily on Fournette as their pass-catching back, and now the team added Giovani Bernard's proven pass-catching skillset to be their 3rd-down back, suggesting RoJo is stuck in an early-down role with a full-blown RBBC. I'm taking a wide receiver over Jones at this ADP every time.

Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr), CBS Sports

Josh Allen: It's not that I dislike Josh Allen. He's my No. 3 quarterback. But we've learned the past two years with Patrick Mahomes II and Lamar Jackson not to overpay for last year's breakout. Allen has some regression coming, and there's not a big enough difference between him and Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson to take him a round or two ahead of them. In fact, I prefer Lamar Jackson to Allen straight up.

Kyle Pitts: It's never fun being the low guy on a potential superstar, but the Kyle Pitts hype is out of control. His ADP has climbed to the point where he could legitimately be the best rookie tight end of the past ten years and still bust for fantasy football purposes. Wait three rounds and draft Noah Fant or Dallas Goedert if you want to draft a breakout tight end who could actually profit for you.

James Robinson: Every time I see James Robinson's ADP, I think it must be a typo. In the best-case scenario, he's the early downs back in a committee on a below-average offense. Even if that comes to pass, he'll be overvalued in the fifth round. But as an undrafted free agent with a new regime who spent that type of draft capital on Travis Etienne, Robinson has a complete and total bust downside.

John Daigle (@notJDaigle), NBC Sports

DeVonta Smith: Smith is being drafted as if it's certain he'll lead the team in target share from Jalen Hurts even though Jalen Reagor, another first-round option, has 11 games of experience under his belt and is notably being transitioned into the slot. This is an unknown and ambiguous situation, and it is a poor strategy to blindly chase Smith as a target hog. Hurts still needs to flash a competent arm after completing just 52% of his passes last year to keep any of the Eagles' receivers afloat as a weekly top-36 option.

J.K. Dobbins: There's a difference between being good on the field and good for fantasy. Dobbins' outlook in the former category has blown his ADP out of proportion after he split carries (57-49) with Gus Edwards during Mark Ingram's five healthy scratches to close the year. Dobbins merely out-targeted Edwards 8 to 5 in that stint, too. With another timeshare in-store, the former needs touchdowns to return value in that range since Lamar Jackson has ignored this backfield with the NFL's third- and fourth-fewest targets the past two years.

Evan Engram: Finally healthy for a full season for the first time in his career, Engram still finished with career-lows in receptions (3.9), yards (40.9), and fantasy points (8.8) per game in offensive coordinator Jason Garrett's pre-historic offense. His 21.8% target share from last year is a moot point given the injection of Kenny Golladay, Saquon Barkley, and Kyle Rudolph in Week 1.

Daniel Dopp (@DanielDopp), ESPN

Patrick Mahomes II: No. We have to stop this. Mahomes is the best quarterback in fantasy. Period. End of sentence. But in a 1-QB league, there is ZERO reason to draft a quarterback in the 2nd round. Last season, 11 quarterbacks averaged over 20 fantasy points per game. Just think about waiting a round and getting Allen or Kyler, or waiting three rounds later and getting Dak or Lamar. I just cannot justify a quarterback this early—even Patrick Mahomes II.

James Robinson: This year's Robinson isn't going to be last year's Robinson. There's too much stacked against him. First, Travis Etienne. Second, a new coaching staff who drafted Etienne in the 1st, despite having Robinson. Third, volume vs. efficiency. He was the RB6 in touches but only RB30 in points per touch. Take away his massive volume and lack of goal-line work (only eight Goal-to-go carries - RB30), and you won't see a 5th round return on investment.

Tyler Lockett: If I'm drafting a wide receiver in the 5th, he's a consistent starter for me—every week. Lockett isn't that. Last year he won you some weeks with huge games (Week 3: 37, Week 7: 53, Week 17: 33), but I don't count Week 17, and neither should you. A deeper dive shows six weeks with single-digit scoring, and that's not 5th round material. I want consistency from my starters. I'll shoot for the moon in the later rounds.

Jamey Eisenberg (@JameyEisenberg), CBS Sports

Miles Sanders: It feels like the Eagles don't want to commit to Sanders as a workhorse. The offseason additions of Kenneth Gainwell, Jordan Howard, and Kerryon Johnson, plus keeping Boston Scott on the roster, speaks to a committee approach. And let's not forget that Jalen Hurts could be among the best running quarterbacks in the league. I still value Sanders as a starting fantasy running back, but I don't want to draft him in Round 3.

Josh Jacobs: The addition of Kenyan Drake is bad news for Jacobs staying in his workhorse role, and the Raiders also have plenty of turnover on the offensive line. The latter might end up as a plus by the end of the year, but this backfield could be messy if Drake puts Jacobs on the bench for extended stretches. We know Jacobs is already limited in the passing game, and any loss of touches elsewhere is problematic.

Kyle Pitts: In full disclosure, I love Pitts. I'm a University of Florida grad, and he brought plenty of excitement for the Gators. But I'm concerned about Pitts being drafted in Round 4 as the fifth tight end off the board. The expectations seem unrealistic for a rookie tight end, even though he's in a favorable spot with Atlanta moving on from Julio Jones. He could be awesome, but I'd prefer to draft him in Round 6.

Marco Enriquez (@Marco_14P), 14 Personnel

Dallas Goedert: We have all been waiting for the emergence of Dallas Goedert. But there are a few obstacles that have me steering clear of him as my mid-round tight end. First is the lack of passing volume the Eagles are preparing for this season. The new coaching regime likes to run the football. The second is Jalen Hurts. He was inaccurate last season, more inaccurate than (gasps) Drew Lock. Hurts also targeted his wide receivers over the tight end a surprising amount in his four starts last season.

DeVonta Smith: I'm sure I will get hate mail for this, but DeVonta Smith will not be a value in 2021. Will he be a BUST? I am not ready to say that, but on a low-volume passing attack with a young quarterback with accuracy issues? Smith outperforming his ADP doesn't look likely. I see a similar season to Jerry Jeudy in 2020 (113 targets, 52 receptions, 856 yards, three touchdowns), Which would land him in the mid-40s at the position, which isn't a bust, but it isn't a guy I am targeting.

Chase Edmonds: I have never been an Edmonds believer, and in 2021 I haven't changed my opinion. The Cardinals brought in James Conner this offseason, who I think will end up seeing more touches as long as he is healthy. They also added more pass catchers to an already pass-heavy offense. I do not think it is crazy to think that Kingsbury hasn't already put plenty of Rondale Moore out of the backfield plays into his playbook. At the end of Round 5 is where you can hurt your team, don't let Edmonds be the reason.

John Luke Garofalo (@FYFJohnLuke), Front Yard Fantasy

Tyler Lockett: Last season, Tyler Lockett was drafted as the WR21 and finished as the WR9, which seems like a great value. The problem is that Lockett is very inconsistent, making it difficult to know when to put him in your lineup. In nine of his 16 games last season, he was outside of the weekly top-36. It's too risky to invest a 5th round pick on a player you can't trust.

Raheem Mostert: Mostert has been the "lead back" for the 49ers for the past two seasons. However, he only appeared in 23 out of 32 games in that span. In addition, he had a very inconsistent workload, amassing a 42% snap share. I'm expecting that to decrease with the arrival of Trey Sermon, Elijah Mitchell, and Wayne Gallman. As a result, Mostert will be an unpredictable week-to-week start and not worth his current draft price.

James Robinson: I'm shocked folks are still drafting James Robinson higher than Travis Etienne. Robinson had the highest opportunity share (85.2%) of any NFL running back last year, which he was able to turn into an RB9 finish. But now it's Urban Meyer's offense, and it doesn't seem like he's planning on giving Robinson anywhere close to the same amount of opportunities. Robinson is being drafted as a top-24 running back, but it's improbable he'll deliver on those expectations.

Ian Hartitz (@IHartitz), Pro Football Focus

Hunter Henry: Top concerns: 1.) History tells us that we're better off keeping fantasy football expectations in check when a veteran changes to a new team regardless of position, and 2.) The history of multiple tight ends balling out in the same offense isn't rich. Henry finished 2020 as the TE10 in PPR points per game and now has more competition for targets as well as less certainty under center. Great real-life player, but I'm out in fantasy.

(Editor's Note: Hunter Henry's ADP has dropped significantly since we asked these questions in early July)

Julio Jones: Julio is anything but washed: Only Davante Adams (2.96), Justin Jefferson (2.66), and A.J. Brown (2.65) were more efficient on a per route basis. Still, learning a new system and quarterback isn't ideal, and overall targets could be an issue for the first time. Jones is a perfectly reasonable target when priced as a low-end, top-24 wide receiver, but WR14 is too high to spend on him in a fantasy draft.

James Robinson: Robinson needs 1.) Travis Etienne to be more of a full-time receiver than rusher, 2.) Carlos Hyde to be a complete non-factor, and 3.) this Tim Tebow thing to be fugazi. It's pretty clear the artist formerly known as “RB1son” isn't going to finish sixth in the entire NFL in total touches again. With some luck, Robinson can push for 200 touches; either way, he should be priced closer to a 3rd running back for fantasy managers.

Tyler Karp (@DLF_Karp), Dynasty League Football

James Robinson: I have no clue why Robinson is currently the RB24 in ADP. The Jaguars drafted Travis Etienne in the first round, and first-round running backs nearly always play significant snaps from the jump. At best, Robinson will retain his goal-line work and some early-down carries. Therefore, RB24 is about Robinson's ceiling and makes no sense for his ADP. I'd instead target almost any other running back in his value range.

Mike Evans: Evans is a horrible bet at WR13 in PPR formats. Last year, he finished as the WR11, with Chris Godwin missing four games and Antonio Brown joining mid-season. Evans was also only 16th in points per game and scored an unrepeatable 13 touchdowns on only 109 targets. With Godwin now healthy and Brown on the team from the start, I won't go anywhere near Evans this year. He's my WR22.

Hunter Henry: Unlike most fantasy analysts, I prefer Henry over his teammate Jonnu Smith on the Patriots. Henry has produced fantasy numbers, unlike Smith, whose best-ever finish is TE16. However, Cam Newton threw a miserable eight touchdowns in 2020, and I have little confidence in Mac Jones.

(Editor's Note: Hunter Henry's ADP has dropped significantly since we asked these questions in early July)

Sean Koerner (@The_Oddsmaker), The Action Network

Raheem Mostert: Raheem Mostert may be the heavy favorite to be the 49ers' Week 1 starter, but the 49ers didn't spend a third-round pick on Trey Sermon to be a backup for long. I think Raheem Mostert's one-cut ability with 4.42 speed works well for Shanahan's run scheme when a pocket passer like Jimmy Garoppolo is under center. However, the plan could be to use Sermon as a downhill bruiser once Trey Lance eventually takes over. So I'm not spending precious draft capital on Mostert, whose value will likely only go down during the season.

D.J. Chark: As much as I want to invest in Trevor Lawrence/D.J. Chark stacks, it's hard to trust Chark at this price. We don't have enough clarity as to what Urban Meyer is planning to do with this offense to feel great about any projections we have right now. There is no question Chark offers a ton of upside, but I rather take a swing at Marquise Brown a couple of rounds later. (Note: We asked these questions in July, before Brown's recent injury)

Hunter Henry: Henry's ADP would make sense if he were still on the Chargers. But, instead, he's playing alongside Jonnu Smith in an offense that might have Cam Newton under center for 10+ games? As a result, I am fading Henry entirely at this price.

(Editor's Note: Hunter Henry's ADP has dropped significantly since we asked these questions in early July)

Bob Lung (@bob_lung), Dr. Roto

Antonio Gibson: Don't get me wrong; I believe Antonio Gibson is very talented and has a great future. But I'm skeptical at his current ADP of RB12 in the early second round. His consistency last year was only 57%, which ranked him 24th overall. This offseason, the team greatly improved its passing game, meaning they don't have to give Gibson 15-20 touches per game. As a result, I have him ranked as RB21 for 2021.

Tyler Lockett: High total points and poor consistency! This is what you get with Tyler Lockett most seasons. Last year was devastating to Lockett owners. After a 100% start in the first three games, Lockett had a 38% consistency rating over the last 13 games. He ended last year ranked eighth in total points! PLEASE, don't draft him based on his points from 2020. His current ADP is WR20. Yet, his consistency last year ranked him 42nd.

Mark Andrews: After a solid 2019, there was much hype for Andrews to improve on his consistency in 2020, but that didn't happen. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense didn't live up to expectations. Andrews wasn't terrible, as he was Top 10 in both total points and consistency. His current ADP is TE4, yet his consistency rating ranked him tenth and ninth in back-to-back seasons. Don't overpay.

Shane Manila (@ShaneIsTheWorst), Dynasty League Football

Nick Chubb: For Chubb to pay off at his current draft capital, he'll need to be hyper-efficient scoring touchdowns. Chubb scored on 5.8% of his opportunities last season, compared to 4.5% in 2019 and 2.3% in 2018. Derrick Henry scored a touchdown on 4.2% of opportunities, while Dalvin Cook scored on 4.6% of his opportunities in 2021, for comparison's sake. So betting that Chubb can overproduce his touches is not a risk worth taking in the middle of the 1st Round.

Cam Akers: Cam Akers averaged 12 opportunities and 44.5 yards in his first seven games last season, then averaged 25 opportunities and 118 yards per game from Week 12 through the divisional round of the playoffs (six games). Akers' production is being overweighted because it came during the start of the fantasy playoffs and during the NFL playoffs. If these splits were reversed, is there any way you would draft Akers this highly? You would not.

(Editor's Note: We asked these questions in July, before Akers' season-ending injury)

Patrick Mahomes II: Drafting Mahomes in the 2nd Round, when you could draft Kyler Murray two rounds later, or Dak Prescott or Lamar Jackson nearly three rounds later doesn't make sense. All of those quarterbacks were within spitting distance of Mahomes in scoring (or outscored him) last year and two have gotten upgrades to their receiving corps. So instead of drafting Mahomes, draft Darren Waller or A.J. Brown and add one of these quarterbacks later.

Mike Randle (@RandleRant), The Action Network

A.J. Brown: Brown finished last year as the overall WR7 in fantasy points per game, and that was without All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones always produces when he is healthy, ranking third in both yards per target and yards per route run in 2020. However, in a Derrick Henry-led, run-first attack, Brown's target competition and lack of volume are major obstacles to fulfilling his current WR7 value.

Jalen Hurts: The fantasy community is getting blinded by rushing upside. The second-year signal-caller enters 2021 with a new coaching staff and questionable offensive playmakers. First-round pick DeVonta Smith excels at timing-based routes, and is only 6-feet, 165 lbs, and has questions about his speed after failing to test at his pro day. In addition, Jalen Reagor's 41% success rate vs. man ranked dead-last per Matt Harmon's Reception Perception. At a QB12 ADP, Hurts is likely to underperform in 2021.

JaMarr Chase: This is more of a support for Tee Higgins than a negative against Chase. Higgins tallied 67 receptions, 908 receiving yards, and six touchdowns despite playing without Joe Burrow for almost seven full games. Chase has minimal upside as the highest-drafted Cincinnati wide receiver in a crowded target share with Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

Jared Smola (@SmolaDS), Draft Sharks

J.K. Dobbins: I want Dobbins in a workhorse role. You want Dobbins in a workhorse role. But it ain't going to happen. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has always favored committee backfields -- and the Ravens just gave Gus Edwards, who's averaged 5+ yards per carry in three straight seasons, a new two-year, $9 million deal. Edwards will remain heavily involved on the ground, and Dobbins doesn't project to see big target volume. As a result, he's a full round overvalued in PPR drafts.

Kenny Golladay: Golladay was never a target dominator in Detroit. He topped out at 119 looks in 2018, which ranked 16th among wide receivers. Don't expect him to climb much beyond that mark with the Giants, who have a deep group of pass-catchers in Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, and Darius Slayton. And, of course, quarterback play remains a big question mark in New York.

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk was impressive over the 2nd half of his 2020 rookie campaign. But he benefited big time from injuries to Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Aiyuk was actually out-targeted by both guys when all three were healthy last season. We could see a similar target distribution this year. And San Francisco's passing-game volume figures to shrink when rookie quarterback Trey Lance takes over.

Jake Trowbridge (@JakeTrowbridge), Ball Blast Football

Cam Akers: I know. Akers is talented, has solid draft capital, and is in a great offense. But Darrell Henderson is no slouch in that backfield, has comparable draft capital behind him, and could cap Akers' ability to finish as a top-10 running back. It's possible Sean McVay has moved past the idea of using a workhorse running back, making the floor beneath Akers too shaky to draft him this high.

(Editor's Note: We asked these questions in July, before Akers' season-ending injury)

D.J. Chark: It's a new start for the Jaguars as a whole, who sport a new head coach, a new quarterback, and their 4th new offensive coordinator in as many seasons. And while that all probably sounds exciting for Chark, who underperformed expectations last year, there's too much working against him to believe his ADP -- which is multiple rounds above his fellow wideouts, one of whom has familiarity with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell -- won't lead to disappointment.

Logan Thomas: Thomas is this year's fool's gold. A quarterback-turned-tight end coming off a sudden breakout in his fifth year, Thomas had little competition for targets and a messy quarterback room that craved a reliable presence in the middle of the field. But Washington added some explosive weapons to the depth chart and a quarterback who loves to throw deep, making it more likely Thomas becomes the next Gary Barnidge instead of the next Darren Waller.