I have a secret to tell you.
The release of the NFL schedule, in the immortal words of the great William Shakespeare (Little known fact--big Jets fan, despite dying in 1616), "Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."
The schedule release is another opportunity for the NFL to get eyeballs on TVs (heaven forbid they pass up one of those), but on some level, it's information we have already had for some time--we have known each team's home and away opponents for months. We also know each team's opponents' collective winning percentage in 2024, which some use as a barometer of the "difficulty" of a team's schedule.
The problem with that is that so much changes from year to year in the NFL that a schedule that looks daunting in May could be a cakewalk by November. There are personnel changes galore, new coaching staffs, and changes in offensive or defensive philosophy. We may think right now that the New York Giants got hosed (they did) and the San Francisco 49ers have an easy slate (they do), but the impact of the schedule is perennially overrated.
That extends to fantasy football as well. Just because a team allowed fantasy points by the bucketful to linebackers last year doesn't mean they will do the same in 2025. Again, a lot can change from one season to the next.
Still, that's not to say there's nothing that can be gleaned from the schedule release, even if it's just a potential tool to break ties between closely-ranked players. With that in mind, here are some things that stand out about the 2025 slate in IDP leagues.
Defensive Linemen
The contract impasse involving Cincinnati Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson has already cast a pall over his IDP value. But even if Hendrickson does sign an extension soon and doesn't sit through a prolonged holdout, a slow start to the season could be in the offing. Cincinnati's Week 1 trip to Cleveland is a dream matchup--no team allowed more fantasy points to defensive ends in 2024. But after that comes a stretch of unfavorable matchups--starting with a Week 2 game against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that surprisingly allowed just 32 sacks last season.
One of Chicago's offseason priorities this year was to improve an offensive line that surrendered a whopping 68 sacks last year--tops in the NFL. It's not going to take especially long to find out if that new-look line is for real or not, as the Bears open the season against a number of big-name edge rushers. Prior to their Week 5 bye, the Bears will face the Minnesota Vikings (Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel), the Detroit Lions (Aidan Hutchinson), the Dallas Cowboys (Micah Parsons), and the Las Vegas Raiders (Maxx Crosby). It's a fairly daunting gauntlet for Bears left tackle Braxton Jones.
According to Ben Rolfe of PFSN, after offseason personnel moves, the worst offensive line in the National Football League belongs to the Houston Texans. Unfortunately, the AFC South isn't exactly loaded with high-end edge rushers, although Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker of the Jaguars could benefit from Houston's deficiencies along the offensive front. However, the Texans and Jaguars don't meet until Week 3, so 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse and Byron Young of the Los Angeles Rams and Haason Reddick of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will get the first crack at making C.J. Stroud cry.
Linebackers
The questions on the Cincinnati defense extend to the linebackers--Akeem Davis-Gaither bolted for Arizona in free agency, and Germaine Pratt has skipped workouts so far this offseason amid rampant speculation that he's on the trade block. That should mean no shortage of tackle opportunities for veteran Logan Wilson, who is reportedly healthy after a knee injury cut his 2024 season short. Wilson could have an opportunity to get off to a hot start--the Bengals play the Browns in Week 1 and the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3--the two most generous teams to opposing linebackers from a fantasy perspective in 2024.
The Minnesota Vikings aren't especially renowned for their linebacker corps--Ivan Pace Jr.. had over 100 tackles as a rookie but missed significant time in 2024, and Blake Cashman has yet to hit 115 total stops in a season. It could be an up-and-down start for the duo in 2025. The team's first two opponents (Chicago and Atlanta ranked outside the top-25 in fantasy points surrendered to linebackers in 2024. However, things heat up after that--three straight top-10 fantasy matchups for linebackers, although two of them take place across The Pond in Ireland and London.
There have been a number of changes on the roster in San Francisco this offseason, including at linebacker, where rookie Nick Martin will likely start opposite Fred Warner after the departure of Dre Greenlaw. But the Niners' linebackers could be headed for a sluggish start. San Francisco doesn't draw a top-10 fantasy matchup for linebackers (based on last year's numbers, at least) until they face the Texans in Houston in Week 8, and just one of the teams they take on over the first seven weeks of the year ranked in the top-15 in fantasy points surrendered to the position in 2024.
Defensive Backs
The Seattle Seahawks spent a second-round pick on safety Nick Emmanwori, and the former South Carolina standout has a bright future in the NFL. But his first month or so in the pros (and the first part of the season for batterymate Julian Love) could be bumpy. That five-game stretch begins with a San Francisco 49ers team that led the league and fantasy points given up to safeties and ends with top-five matchups with the Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But there are also tilts with the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints--teams with major offensive question marks who weren't kind to the position in 2024.
Speaking of the Arizona Cardinals, Redbirds safety Budda Baker is the No. 1 safety in many IDP rankings. And in the seven games preceding Arizona's Week 8 bye, the Cardinals meet the two most generous teams to safeties last season--the 49ers and Indianapolis Colts. But there are also multiple potential duds to open the 2025 campaign, including two straight to open the season against the aforementioned Saints and a Carolina Panthers team that allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to safeties last season. There could be some "buy low" potential there if Baker starts slow.
The Denver Broncos paid big bucks for safety Talanoa Hufanga in the offseason, and combined with 2024 IDP star Brandon Jones, many fantasy managers see a lot of potential in the Broncos' safeties this year. But the early part of the season is a rollercoaster of good matchups for the position and terrible ones. The season opens against a Tennessee Titans team that will be rolling out a rookie quarterback, and there are also tilts with the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers. All three teams were 27th or worse in fantasy points allowed to safeties last year, and the Bolts were dead last in that category.
Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPGodfather.