Fantasy Overview - Week 4

Jeff Haseley's Fantasy Overview - Week 4 Jeff Haseley Published 09/29/2020

We are three weeks into the season and the fantasy landscape is starting to take shape. This week I'll take a look at the top 20 players by fantasy points (PPR scoring) from each skill position, and provide my take on which players belong and which are destined to decline.

QUARTERBACK

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The top quarterbacks are taking shape

The Top 5 quarterbacks are the outliers in point production so far, led by Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes II, and Kyler Murray.

The biggest surprise here by far is Josh Allen. The Bills have long been considered a run-first, play defense type of football team, however this year, Josh Allen has developed into a quality passer. He has 10 passing touchdowns to go with two rushing touchdowns and he's averaging a clean 346 yards passing per game.

I would say Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind, but what we're seeing from him appears to be the same every week. He has 14 touchdown passes in three games, and 15 if weren't for DK Metcalf's blundering decision. Like Patrick Mahomes II, Wilson has entered that status of, assuming great things. He's a mainstay in the top 5 this year and he has a chance to finish #1.

Dak Prescott is throwing the ball at will, and while he's topping 380+ yards every game, he's also making mistakes and not capitalizing on drives. For 1,188 yards passing he's only averaging one touchdown every 237 yards. Prescott has 3 rushing touchdowns to go with his high passing numbers, and for now, it's keeping him in the top 3.

What can I say about Patrick Mahomes II that hasn't been said already? He makes plays and spreads the ball around well to all areas of the field and each position (55% to WRs, 24% to TEs, 21% to RBs). He hasn't been consistently elite this season, but he's consistently productive with some gems sprinkled in, for example, this past Monday night against the Ravens. Expect more of the same going forward.

Kyler Murray has 8 total touchdowns (four passing and four rushing). He also provides a healthy amount of rushing yards on weekly basis. He's not necessarily one to win games with his arm, but he has the horses on offense (DeAndre Hopkins) to do it if needed.

Some additional unexpected results after three weeks include:

Positive

Negative

Which players are on the way up and which ones are on the way down?


Needle pointing up:

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA - We may be on the Fitzmagic upswing after two good outings in a row. Fitzpatrick is having fun playing the game and he's getting results. You can tell his teammates want to win for him. His success is contagious. The Dolphins face Seattle this week who have given up on average 51 pass attempts per game this year. Fitzpatrick may struggle to get the win, but his numbers could soar.

  • Nick Foles, CHI - It looks as if the Bears are going with Foles over Mitchell Trubisky. You don't make a move benching your starter in a non-injury situation just to have him play again the following week. Foles came in and tossed three fourth-quarter touchdowns en route to a come-from-behind win against the Falcons. He'll need to keep the momentum or he could take a seat if he doesn't produce.

Needle pointing down:

  • Drew Brees, NO - The Saints don't have their top receiver Michael Thomas, and it shows. Passes to wide receivers have dropped way down since his ankle injury. As a whole, the Saints wide receiver corps is getting 41% of their target share (third-fewest in the league). Passes are getting funneled to Alvin Kamara because he's the only one who consistently does anything with them. Brees should be able to bounce back, especially when Thomas returns, provided he has no lingering issues with his ankle.

Running back

What stands out?

A few things come to mind immediately - James Robinson in the top 5 is by far the biggest surprise among running backs after three games. He is showing the fantasy world, and the league, that he can play football. He has been a solid runner and receiver and most importantly, he's the clearcut primary back for the Jaguars. He has 43 carries and the next closest (Chris Thompson) has only four. His early success may be all the Jaguars need to keep him in the fold when Devine Ozigbo and Ryquell Armstead return from injury/health.
Alvin Kamara, and also Aaron Jones, have dominated as fantasy backs through three games. Both aren't necessarily a surprise, but the rise of A.J. Dillon and the potential future of the Packers rushing game still may go through Jones. As for Kamara, he's benefiting from Michael Thomas' absence and could have a Christian McCaffrey-like season where he is head and shoulders above all other backs.

There are not many big surprises in the Top 10 outside of James Robinson. If anything it's who's not in the Top 10
  • Derrick Henry leads the league with 82 rushes, but he's averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry and he has only two touchdowns. Granted, he's #11, but we're used to seeing him inside the Top 5.

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire is #12, but this is a bit of a disappointment after his big debut in Week 1. He is struggling to convert anything inside the five-yard line. He essentially gets one chance (maybe two) before Patrick Mahomes II finds his own success with a five-yard strike for a touchdown. Edwards-Helaire has the talent and skills to be an effective back in the league, but if he can't score touchdowns consistently, he won't be a staple in the Top 10.

Who's on the rise? Who's on the decline?

Needle pointing up:
  • Kareem Hunt, CLE - Is there a running back in the league that is doing more with his touches than Kareem Hunt? He has scored in each of the last two games, including twice in Week 2. He's still platooning with Nick Chubb, but it's becoming more and more difficult to leave him on your bench. If you have him, he's proving that he's worth starting.

  • Darrell Henderson, LAR - The Malcolm Brown flash came and went. Henderson has shown that he can be a more effective rusher and he may have a case against Cam Akers when he returns from a rib injury. Akers is showing signs of still being green when it comes to field vision and decision-making. If Henderson continues to play well, Akers' rise to stardom may have to wait.

  • Myles Gaskin, MIA - The Dolphins elected to give Gaskin the opportunity for an increase in touches and he has delivered. He has not found the end zone yet, and that's probably why he isn't higher than 22 on the PPR rankings. He does have 15 receptions for 91 yards to go with 38 rushes. His workload is on the rise and so far he is showing he belongs in your fantasy lineups.

  • Mike Davis, CAR - The Panthers replacement at running back for the injured Christian McCaffrey is doing McCaffrey-like things on the field. Davis may not be the rusher that McCaffrey is, but he's getting similar looks. He also has 16 catches over the last six quarters. More of the same is expected and he could carve out a role, even if small, when McCaffrey does return sometime in October. For now, Davis is worthy of starting each week.

  • David Montgomery, CHI - The injury to Tarik Cohen has opened the door for David Montgomery to see an increase in targets as the team's primary back. The move to Nick Foles could also lead to an increase in check downs. The biggest beneficiary to Cohen's injury is Montgomery based on the current depth chart in Chicago.

Needle pointing down

  • Todd Gurley is #28 in PPR rankings and he is fighting Brian Hill for carries, including meaningful carries. Gurley has scored twice, but he has only three receptions and his yardage totals are meager. His needle is pointing down and the presence of Hill is a concern for Gurley owners going forward. If Gurley doesn't produce well in the next game or two, we may see even more of a carry-share in Atlanta.

  • Kenyan Drake and Joe Mixon (CIN and ARI). Both backs have started slow out of the gate, but that doesn't necessarily mean the sky is falling. Both have over 50 carries and the closest teammate to carries has 12 and 2 carries for Arizona and Cincinnati respectively. There is some concern because their lack of production on those carries is yielding little success, thus making the decision to start them more of a challenge. The tide could turn any given week. Both backs have had success in the league in the past. Their needles may be pointing down right now, but that could change quickly.

Don't forget about
  • Devonta Freeman, Wayne Gallman, Dion Lewis - The Giants' schedule is going to get easier and one of these backs should emerge as a potential fantasy option.

  • Phillip Lindsay, DEN - Denver is one of the teams suffering from the most injuries, on both sides of the ball. There's a chance that Lindsay could be a spark on an offense in need of jolt when he returns from his foot injury.

  • Travis Homer, DeeJay Dallas SEA - The knee injury to Chris Carson means Carlos Hyde will see more action for the next few weeks, but that also means potential for Homer and Dallas.

  • James White, NE - Rex Burkhead has shown he can be a factor on offense, but don't forget about James White who should also be a key contributor when he returns from a personal absence.

  • Cam Akers, LAR - The Rams didn't draft Akers to let him sit and be #2. Darrell Henderson may have the keys to the car right now, but Akers will get his chance.

  • Benny Snell, PIT - Snell could be a James Conner vital mistake away from making an impact again.

  • Zack Moss, BUF - A toe injury has slowed his ascension in the Bills backfield, but when he comes back, he should be in the mix for carries.

Wide Receiver

What stands out?
  • Calvin Ridley has overtaken Julio Jones as the Falcons' most consistent and productive receiver. It's difficult to rely on Jones due to a career of wear and tear. Ridley is younger and he's arguably a more productive option for Matt Ryan and so far, it shows.

  • Touchdown scorers and consistent high-targeted receivers are the ones we're seeing in the top 10. The best fantasy receivers are on the high-scoring teams. Seattle has two in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Both are capable of staying in the top 10 due to Russell Wilson's success. Stefon Diggs is benefiting from Josh Allen's newfound yardage.

  • Keenan Allen and Robby Anderson are the only wide receivers in the Top 10 with one touchdown. Their consistent yardage and high receptions are keeping them among the elite. Can they keep it up? Scores will have to occur to do so.

  • Only 20 PPR fantasy points separate the 20th ranked receiver and the 65th ranked receiver. A big game or series of successful games from any player in that range is capable of moving way up on the list.

Needle Pointing Up
  • Allen Lazard, GB - The Packers' top receiver is DaVante Adams, however, Allen Lazard is doing his best to earn secondary targets and as long as Aaron Rodgers is sustaining success, there will be fantasy points for him. Update - news came out midweek that Lazard has an abdominal core injury. He did not practice Thursday and is likely out for Week 4.

  • Gabriel Davis, BUF - Gabe Davis was turning heads in training camp and so far it is translating to the regular season. John Brown may be out with a calf injury that could shelve him on IR. As a result, look for Davis to see an increase in snaps, targets, and production on one of the more prolific offenses in the league. Update - Brown practiced Thursday and is questionable to play Week 4.

  • Mike Evans, TB - Chris Godwin came back too soon from a hamstring injury, and now he's going to sit out longer to get healed. As a result, Mike Evans will be relied on more in his absence. Scotty Miller and/or Justin Watson also have the chance to benefit while Godwin is out.

  • Justin Jefferson, MIN - The Vikings rookie receiver had his breakout game last week and it is becoming clear that the team wants to get him more involved. Jefferson has the talent and ability to be a difference-maker and we are starting to see it on the field.

  • Tee Higgins, CIN - Tyler Boyd is the top target in Cincinnati, but Tee Higgins isn't far behind. A.J. Green is still a big part of the offense but we are getting to the point where it's difficult to trust Green any given week. Higgins is the future and we could see his rise in the offense this year.

  • Zach Pascal, IND - The injuries to Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman give Zach Pascal a chance at more involvement in the Colts offense, at least until Week 6.


Needle pointing down

  • Other than players with injuries, it's too soon to label a receiver a bust. T.Y. Hilton is struggling to produce, but he's more than capable of rebounding. The same goes for Marvin Jones, D.J. Moore, Marquise Brown, etc. These names are to be watched, but it's too soon to take action.
Don't forget about

Tight end

What stands out?

20 fantasy points separate the #2 tight end from #17. Any player is capable of taking a jump in the rankings over the next few weeks. Every year we see new names in the top 10 and 2020 is no different. Jonnu Smith #2, Noah Fant #3, Mike Gesicki #5, Tyler Higbee #6, Jimmy Graham #7, and Dalton Schultz #10 are all surprises compared to where they were drafted or ranked preseason.

Players I like moving forward

  • Mo Alie-Cox, IND - Alie-Cox is showing that he belongs as a big piece in the Colts offense. Jack Doyle is running more routes, but Alie-Cox is producing more. It's only a matter of time before he overtakes Doyle.

  • Zach Ertz, PHI - The injury to Dallas Goedert means Zach Ertz will see the majority of tight end targets in his absence. So far, Ertz has been quiet, but the likelihood of that changing is high.

  • Eric Ebron, PIT - Last week we saw what Ebron is capable of in the Steelers offense. He started slow but there is a path for Ebron to see an increase in targets in the coming weeks, especially with injuries mounting to the receiving corps.

  • Jimmy Graham, CHI - Graham is healthy and he's making plays. More are coming with Nick Foles under center. Cole Kmet is the future in Chicago, but Graham is the present.

Players I'm shying away from

  • Jared Cook, NO - Jared Cook is one year removed from 9 touchdowns but he looks like a different player. He is not seeing enough looks even with Michael Thomas absent from the offense.

  • Chris Herndon, NYJ - The Jets have scored 4 touchdowns in three games. Herndon is at best a bench stash who could become more if Adam Gase is relieved of his coaching duties.

  • Evan Engram, NYG - The Giants have scored fewer than the Jets (3 touchdowns). Their offense is on life support, but at least they have an easier schedule coming up. Engram, among others, is struggling to sustain fantasy appeal.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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