Photo: USA Today Sports

Guiding DFS Tournament Principles

There are three keys to winnings large-field tournaments on FanDuel. First, we need to identify the “good chalk” — the popular plays who we want to build our lineups around. Second, we need to identify the less-popular plays with similar upside to the most popular players at their position. Lastly, we need to decide which young breakout candidates to target.

Every week, we will talk about these principles and identify the top targets in each category. These players will be listed below by which strategic category they fit into along with their projected popularity (this is called their "percent rostered" or "projected ownership"). We will then go in depth on each of these players in the position-by-position breakdowns in the following section.

1. Identify the good chalk

Our whole lineup should not be sub-5% rostered guys. Popular plays each week are usually popular for a reason and we always need to remember that the number one goal is to score as many points as possible. We do not want to get too cute and build our entire rosters around longer shot plays.

The chalk is often especially attractive at running back. Volume is key and we usually know in advance which running backs are likely to see 20+ touches. We want to build our lineups around those running backs, especially on FanDuel where it is harder to get lucky with low-volume receiving backs due to the 0.5 PPR scoring.

Week 1 good chalk

The following players are worth considering as core lineup pieces despite their popularity this week. Please note, the projected percent-rostered numbers listed in parentheses are calculated by Devin Knotts and updated daily throughout the week. Please check here for Devin’s latest up-to-the-minute projections.

• Lamar Jackson (18%)
• Christian McCaffrey (42%)
• Josh Jacobs (14%)
• Boston Scott (30%)
• Antonio Gibson (17%)
• Zach Ertz (22%)

2. Build uniqueness without sacrificing too much upside or floor.

We know that we do not want to avoid the chalky plays entirely. However, we also do not want to have lineups that are too chalky. Game theory demands we take into account what our competitors are doing and what the majority of the rosters we are competing with will look like. Ideally, we want to have at least two sub-5% players in every lineup to increase our chances of placing highly in large-field tournaments. The key is to do so without sacrificing too much upside.

The easiest way to get the best of both worlds (high upside on unpopular plays) is to target top players in what are perceived to be difficult matchups. The crowd can sometimes get too carried away with using weekly matchups to make their roster decisions. This gives savvy players an opportunity to roster top talents with similar fantasy projections to the chalk at a fraction of the popularity. If you hit on the right lower-rostered player, you quickly separate yourself from the pack and give yourself the best chance to win the big money.

Week 1 contrarian targets

• Kyler Murray (2%)
• Cam Newton (2%)
• Keenan Allen (4%)
• DeAndre Hopkins (1%)
• A.J. Green (5%)
• Austin Hooper (2%)

3. Show up to the party early

The surest path to low-priced upside is through talented young players who have yet to breakout. We need to be aggressive in rostering rookies and second-year players before they become proven, popular, and expensive. In large tournaments, these are the types of opportunities we must leverage to get an edge on the field. In the long run, it is better to risk jumping the gun at times as opposed to being too conservative and consistently missing out on breakout games from future stars.

Week 1 breakout targets

• Bryan Edwards (2%)
• Henry Ruggs (2%)
• Preston Williams (1%)
• James Robinson (4%)
• Irv Smith (1%)

Footballguys best lineups section

This section is empty in Week 1 but will be a place in future weeks to recognize some of the best FanDuel tournament lineups from the previous week that were entered by members of the Footballguys community. If you have a lineup that posts a big score in Week 1, screenshot the lineup and send it to me (hindery@footballguys.com) along with a quick note about your thought process when putting the lineup together.

Hopefully, this section will allow us to both learn lessons from and celebrate each other’s successes in 2020.

Position-by-position breakdowns

Quarterback

FanDuel’s scoring system (no 300-yard passing bonuses and just one point per 25 yards passing) favors running quarterbacks. There are a number of dual-threat quarterbacks on this Week 1 slate boasting serious upside. Two of them also come with sub-$8K price tags and are not expected to be popular with the public, giving us a chance to make our lineups unique without sacrificing upside.

Kyler Murray, Arizona ($7,700 — 2%)

Above, we laid out the strategical imperative of trying to make our tournament lineups unique while sacrificing the smallest amount of upside we can. Rostering someone like Murray in what is perceived as a very difficult matchup against San Francisco is exactly the type of move that will pay off in the long run.

Let’s compare Murray to a much more popular Week 1 FanDuel option at quarterback, Russell Wilson:

Based upon the conventional wisdom of season-long fantasy drafters, we should project Wilson and Murray for an almost identical fantasy performance if we did not take matchup into account at all. In fact, the consensus Footballguys season-long projections give Murray a slight edge over Wilson in 2020.

In Week 1, we are not only getting Murray at a $700 discount compared to Wilson but we can also expect Murray to give us 10X the leverage on the field compared to what Wilson will give us given that there will be approximately 10X as many lineups with Wilson as there will be with Murray.

The case for Murray goes beyond just game theory. There are some other factors that point to Murray having greater upside than the general public believes. First, he has already had success against San Francisco. Murray had three games as a rookie with a passer rating above 100. Two of them came against the 49ers. He also ran 13 times for 101 yards and a touchdown in those two games. Second, this game has shootout potential and boasts one of the highest totals (48) on the slate. Arizona is expected to play at a faster pace in the second year of Kliff Kingsbury’s tenure and there should be a high number of snaps.

Lastly, there is also an “early to the party” case to be made for Murray. The last two league MVPs were second-year quarterbacks who blew up. Both came out of the gates fast with huge Week 1 performances to announce their arrival as superstars. Murray is also a dark horse MVP candidate who could make a big leap forward this season. It is possible this is the only week all season where he carries a sub-$8K price tag.

Cam Newton, New England ($7,300 — 2%)

One of the biggest keys to success in large daily fantasy tournaments in learning to embrace uncertainty and always try to envision the opportunity and potential upside as opposed to just the potential negatives. We have not seen a fully healthy Newton in more than two years. He is also making his debut with a new team and we do not have any preseason action to judge him on. This is a textbook example of a player and situation with massive uncertainty. Many will see the risk and run away from it. The better move is to view the uncertainty surrounding Newton’s Week 1 prospects as an opportunity to pounce on an elite talent with major upside at a low price while the crowd is focused elsewhere.

The matchup is a strong one on paper. The Dolphins gave up the third-most yards in the NFL last season (398 per game) and allowed a league-high 30.9 points per game. Miami’s defense especially struggled against mobile quarterbacks last season. Lamar Jackson (combined with Robert Griffin III in garbage time) torched the Dolphins for 40.7 FanDuel points in Week 1 last season. Josh Allen also lit up Miami for 33.8 fantasy points in his Week 11 matchup. The Patriots have also had more than their fair share of success against this defense, as well. Over the last three seasons, New England has averaged over 32 PPG in their six matchups against Miami.

One of the biggest reasons many are hesitant to trust Newton is the perceived mediocrity of the Patriots pass-catching options. However, Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, and Damiere Byrd do not look so bad compared to Newton’s options throughout most of his time in Carolina. In his league MVP season of 2015, Newton’s starting wide receivers were Ted Ginn Jr, Jericho Cotchery, and Corey Brown.

What will the Cam Newton Patriots offense look like?

It's a matter of extracting Newton's strengths and marrying them with Josh McDaniels’ creativity

Dig in to @jeffphowe's latest👉 https://t.co/XghJHeA6Wr

💰 Subscribe for $1/month

— The Athletic Boston (@TheAthleticBOS) September 10, 2020

Plus, we are really rostering Newton for his rushing upside. He has 58 rushing touchdowns in 125 career starts. The New England coaching staff is talking openly about how his 2017 rushing numbers (139 carries for 754 yards) are a realistic projection for Newton in 2020. As offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch said recently, “You go back to the last time you saw a healthy Cam (in 2017 and 2018), you go back to when he was playing games in Carolina, and what did a healthy Cam look like in terms of running the football and in terms of being able to break a tackle or being able to knock a guy down? That’s the assumption we are going to work off of until he’s unable to do the things he has shown he’s able to do.”

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore ($9,400 — 18%)

Jackson is expected to be the most popular quarterback option on the slate. However, it is extremely rare for quarterbacks to ever be on more than 20% of tournament rosters. Thus, the concern over chalkiness is not as extreme. While rostering Jackson will be popular, he fits into the category of “good chalk.” As we can see on John Lee’s Vegas Value Chart, Baltimore has the highest team total on the slate (28.25 points). This is a great spot for the league’s reigning MVP.

Defenses can come up with plans to stop Lamar Jackson, but the hardest part is executing those planshttps://t.co/RJB65NNC2l

— The Ringer (@ringer) September 10, 2020

Jackson is also unique given just how extreme his rushing value is compared to the rest of the quarterbacks. For example, Jackson averaged 13 carries for 84.5 yards in two matchups against the Browns last season. That is 8.5 FanDuel points before even looking at passing yardage or touchdowns. It is just such a massive advantage and Jackson is no slouch as a passer either. He led the NFL in touchdown passes last season despite his top two targets (Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews) playing through injuries. With both now fully healthy and having another year of experience under their belts, this passing offense could take a significant step forward in Jackson’s second full season as a starter.

From a roster construction standpoint, there is enough value on the Week 1 slate to fit Jackson’s big salary onto your roster without having to make painful decisions at other positions. If you have the ability to spend up somewhere, doing so on a player with unmatched upside at his position is as good a bet as any.

Others to Consider

Running Back

If there is one position where it makes sense to go heavy with chalk, it is running back. Volume is king and we can predict running volume with pretty good accuracy. Sure, every once in a blue moon a running back will have a big fantasy game on 10 or 12 touches but the vast majority of time, the backs on the winning rosters of large-field tournaments are the ones who received 20+ touches. Not surprisingly, running back is the position where there is the highest correlation between scoring and the player’s weekly roster percentage. In short, there is no problem riding with the “good chalk” at running back when there are not similar options flying under the radar.

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina ($10,000 — 42%)

Given his massive salary and projected popularity, McCaffrey is not a must-play in tournaments if you are just playing one lineup but is someone you will want to have heavy exposure to if you are multi-entering. There is enough Week 1 value that we are able to fit McCaffrey’s salary in without having to take too many big chances at other positions and whenever you can fit McCaffrey in, we want to do so.

McCaffrey averaged a whopping 25.83 FanDuel points per game last season. The next closest running back (Derrick Henry, who is not on the main slate) averaged 19.03. That 6.8 point weekly gap was gigantic. We want to focus on getting as much projected volume (carries and targets) into our lineups as possible and McCaffrey’s projected workload is unmatched when you factor in how much more valuable passing targets are than carries. McCaffrey topped 400 touches last season and 116 of those came on receptions. New Panthers head coach Matt Rhule does not seem too worried about McCaffrey maintaining that workload. “For him to have the amount of carries he’s had the last few years and to move the way he looks and looks the way he looks, I think he’s ready to play better this year than he has before ... we’re going to put him out there as many snaps as it takes for us to win,” said Rhule.

The matchup against the Raiders is a solid one. Raiders coach John Gruden thinks free-agent addition Corey Littleton “as an underneath coverage linebacker is exceptional,” but counting on any one linebacker to hold McCaffrey in check is unwise and defensive coordinator Paul Guenther’s defenses have typically struggled against pass-catching backs.

Boston Scott, Philadelphia ($4,700 — 30%) Sunday morning update.

With Miles Sanders ruled out, Scott and Corey Clement should share the backfield for the Eagles. Expect Scott to see 60-70% of the touches. Given his involvement in the passing game, he comes with a very solid floor. He looks like the best point per dollar play on the slate, making it worth being at or near the field if you are multi-entering.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas ($8,200 — 14%)

Jacobs is the safest bet of any player on this slate to see 20+ carries. As a rookie playing through a tough shoulder injury for most of the season, Jacobs carried 18.6 times per game. He should see that number increase this season. Expect Gruden to double Jacobs’ looks in the passing game, as well. Las Vegas is a 3-point road favorite with the sixth-highest team total (25 points) on the slate.

Carolina had one of the league’s worst run defenses last season, giving up 143.5 rushing yards per game. The Panthers also allowed a league-worst 1.9 rushing touchdowns per game, 0.5 touchdowns per game more than any other team. There is some danger in putting too much stock into those numbers, however. Carolina gets defensive Kawann Short back (he missed 14 games last season) and added elite run-stopping defensive tackle Derrick Brown with the seventh-overall pick of the draft. Carolina’s run defense could improve by leaps and bounds and still only be league average given how brutal it was in 2019.

Antonio Gibson, Washington ($4,800 — 19%)

Gibson is the biggest wild card on the Week 1 main slate. His bargain-basement salary opens up a world of possibilities. Rostering Gibson makes Christian McCaffrey easily doable or provides an easy path to rostering two or three of the elite wide receivers. Sigmund Bloom in his Week 1 Sleepers case made a compelling case for Gibson:

None other than Adrian Peterson said that Washington wanted Gibson to be the lead back and called him “ a hell of a talent” The team will employ a committee of some sort, but Gibson will have some PPR punch and if he pops early in the game, they could rely on him more as the game goes on. He’s also game script proof as a good receiving back who can also line up in the slot.

As with Sanders, news over the next few days that leaks out about Gibson’s expected workload will be a double-edged sword. J.D. McKissic was recently listed as the starter on the Washington depth chart and it would not be a surprise to see Washington ease Gibson in gradually over the first few weeks. If the uncertainty remains high, we are also less likely to see Gibson’s popularity shoot up really high. He would make for a much better play if we think the field will have him at 10-20% versus if the field ends up at 25% or higher.

James Robinson, Jacksonville ($4,500 — 5%)

Robinson is the last man standing in the Jaguars backfield. Leonard Fournette was traded. Ryquell Armstead is back on the COVID list. Devine Ozigbo was recently placed on injured reserve. Robinson is the only early-down back left on the roster. The only backups to Robinson are third-down specialists Chris Thompson and Dare Ogunbowale. Robinson is unknown to the public due to his lack of pedigree so despite his projected workload and minimum price, he is not expected to be very popular Week1. He is a nice pivot off of Gibson for those looking for a bargain back.

The Jaguars have been clear that Robinson is the top back and expected to instantly step in as a high-volume running back. "He can handle the workload. He’s tough. He’s strong. He’s got great vision. He can explode through holes. We’ve been impressed with him," offensive coordinator Jay Gruden said.

Others to Consider

Wide Receiver

There are no shortage of strong wide receiver options on this Week 1 slate. Intriguing options exist at a wide range of prices. Due to the depth, wide receiver is the best position to leverage to make our rosters more unique. There is a lot to like about the receivers expected to be most popular but many receivers in the same price range have similar projections and upside at what should be a fraction of the popularity.

Keenan Allen, Chargers ($7,000 — 4%)

Allen is quietly positioned for a big Week 1. Aside from Allen and Mike Williams, the Chargers are severely lacking in both talent and experience at the wide receiver position. Williams is expected to be a game-time decision with a shoulder injury that has kept him out of camp for weeks. Even if he does suit up, it is likely to be in a limited fashion. Allen is a great bet to see 10+ targets.

The matchup against the Bengals looks like a strong one. Top cornerback Trae Waynes is out with a torn pectoral muscle and Cincinnati is seriously undermanned at the position. Slot cornerback Mackenzie Alexander is coming off of a meniscus surgery in January. He has also missed much of camp to deal with personal issues back in Florida.

Terry McLaurin, Washington ($6,500 — 10%)

McLaurin sits on the borderline between chalky and contrarian. Regardless of how popular he ultimately ends up being, McLaurin looks like one of the top wide receiver plays on the slate. With the possible exception of Davante Adams, no pass-catcher stands out as the clear #1 option on his own team as much as McLaurin. His weekly volume is going to be bankable.

The matchup is very favorable. Philadelphia gave up the third-fewest rushing yards last season but ranked just 21st against the pass. Teams are forced to throw to have any chance of moving the ball against the Eagles. McLaurin absolutely torched Philadelphia in both matchups last season catching 10 passed for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns. He did all that damage on just 12 targets. He is a near lock to see more than 6.0 targets per game against the Eagles this season.

Henry Ruggs, Las Vegas ($5,100 — 2%)

The Raiders made Ruggs the 12th overall selection in the NFL Draft and instantly installed him as a starter. Ruggs has elite speed but is not a one-trick pony. He can also jump out of the building (42-inch vertical) and has fantastic body control. He made some highlight-reel contested catches in camp.

The expected matchup against Donte Jackson will scare some off of Ruggs in this matchup. While Jackson is one of the few defenders who can run with Ruggs, he will still need to match his physicality and tackle Ruggs when the Raiders get the call to him short. Jackson is just 178 pounds and managed only seven reps on the bench press coming out of LSU a couple of seasons ago. He is a finesse cornerback and Ruggs could expose that part of his game. Ruggs should be the 2A target in the Raiders passing offense behind only Darren Waller.

Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas (4,500 — 2%)

If Ruggs is the 2A for the Raiders, Edwards is the 2B. He was pushing for a starting role even before Tyrell Williams went down with a season-ending shoulder injury. Williams’ injury cemented Edwards’ spot in the starting lineup across from Ruggs. While Ruggs carried more hype due to being selected two rounds ahead of Edwards, it was actually Edwards who generated more headlines in training camp.

Raiders can’t hide Bryan Edwards anymore, not that anyone ever could | @VicTafur https://t.co/4XYkOwhn63

— The Athletic Bay Area (@TheAthleticSF) September 8, 2020

Edwards is the perfect example of the type of player where we want to err on the side of showing up to the party early. Edwards has a good shot of emerging as an impact fantasy receiver and if we wait until he has proven himself, we are going to miss out on the big fantasy weeks at bargain-basement prices.

Preston Williams, Miami ($5,300 —1%)

Williams is only 10 months removed from ACL surgery but has had a big camp for the Dolphins. Reporters raved about acrobatic Williams grabs on a near-daily basis. He is going to be the number two target behind only DeVante Parker in what should be a sneaky-fun passing offense led by Ryan Fitzpatrick. The veteran passer has never been shy about throwing it up in traffic and letting his wide receivers try to make a play.

Many will remember Parker having a big game in Week 17, dominating his matchup against Stephon Gilmore. Two people who certainly remember that performance are Gilmore and Bill Belichick. It would be a surprise if they let Parker beat them again given Belichick’s long history of taking away the opposing team’s to target. Williams will have the better matchup and should get a lot of one-on-one opportunities. He is a big-play threat who can hit tournament value on one successful deep ball catch in the end zone. If he hits for two long scores, he can be a tournament winner.

Preston Williams has looked very good in training camp. But he says he's still not 100 percent. It could be an issue for secondaries when he reaches that point. https://t.co/gXOn20lJPV

— Hal Habib (@gunnerhal) September 8, 2020

Others to Consider

Tight End

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia ($6,600 — 22%)

Ertz is going to be one of the most-popular pass catchers on the slate. For good reason. The Eagles should have both speedy outside wide receives, Desean Jackson and Jalen Reagor, in the lineup Week 1. Their presence is going to open up the middle of the field in a big way for Ertz, who will not have to deal with double teams in 2020 like he often has in past seasons.

At only $6,600, Ertz has similar upside to the most expensive options on the slate at the position. George Kittle ($8,000) is another strong option but the $1,400 cost savings in dropping down to Ertz is very beneficial for roster construction.

Irv Smith, Minnesota ($4,800 — 1%)

Irv Smith is worth taking some shots on early in the season because a major year two breakout is well within his range of realistic outcomes. He just turned 22-years old in August and impressed as a 21-year old rookie at the most difficult position in the league for players to make an early impact.

#Vikings OC Gary Kubiak on TE Irv Smith Jr.: He's taken a 'big step as a second-year player'https://t.co/wxY1naZicM

— TheVikingsWire (@TheVikingsWire) September 10, 2020

The Packers gave up 10+ points to opposing tight ends seven times last year and Smith is probably second in the pecking order for targets on the Vikings behind only Adam Thielen. As a very low-priced contrarian play, Smith serves the dual purpose of adding uniqueness to our entries and opening up salary to spend up at other positions.

George Kittle, San Francisco ($8,000 — 16%)

As noted above, stacking the Arizona pass offense is an option worth pursuing this week. Kittle is clearly the best “run it back” option if we want to bet on this game turning into a shootout. Kittle is going to have plenty of competition for targets eventually but not in Week 1. Deebo Samuel is still not 100% in his return from foot surgery and is highly questionable for the opening game. Promising rookie Brandon Aiyuk should take on a big role as a rookie but he is just easing his way back into practice after missing multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. Given the injuries to the 49ers' top two receivers, Kittle is likely to see a ton of volume.

The matchup may be better on paper than in reality. Arizona’s median points allowed to opposing TEs last year was 17.5 and San Francisco’sT tight ends had 37.2 FanDuel points in two games last year (one game with Kittle and one without). The Cardinals did add hybrid linebacker/safety Isaiah Simmons early in the draft and he is a potential solution for the team’s struggles covering tight ends. However, a matchup with Kittle in Simmons’ NFL debut is a big ask and Kittle is going to get his.

Others to Consider

Defense