“Have a plan. Follow the plan, and you’ll be surprised how successful you can be. Most people don’t have a plan. That’s why it’s easy to beat most folks.” – Paul “Bear” Bryant, football coach, University of Alabama’s Crimson Tide.
Striking a balance between having a plan built by good research to navigate your draft and seeing how your draft is unfolding through the lens of necessary alterations on the fly to that plan is a difficult task. If you improvise or go “best player available” every round, you could leave weaknesses that are hard to overcome if you don’t draft and manage in a style to mitigate your unforeseen shortcoming. If you stick with your plan through hell or high water, you can miss great values or other ways to exploit the tendencies of your leaguemates.
I want to emphasize this: EVERY PLAN WORKS IF YOU PICK THE RIGHT PLAYERS.
You can gain some edges over your opponents by timing your picks by position to coincide with the areas of the draft most likely to yield the best ROI at the position, but this will gain you maybe a 5-10% edge on your competition at the very most. You win your league by building in upside capable of giving you massive advantages at a few positions while not conceding much to the competition at other positions. You must take a handful of players who can greatly exceed their draft value, which includes taking on the risks that make those players available later than their ceiling suggests they should be.
You can’t win your league by swinging for singles and doubles in your entire draft.
Often I hear “You can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it”. Bullpucky. I and many others have won leagues after shanking first-rounders and other early picks. Matt Waldman lays out the case for the importance of the rest of fantasy football that doesn’t involve the draft in his typical immersive way, and every one of you should read it right now. What this means is that your draft should build in some confidence in your abilities to address weaknesses in-season. You can’t have everything in your draft. Isolate a few spots you are comfortable with operating at from weakness and understand what your strategy will be during the season to deal with that. Streaming TEs. RB2BC. QBBC. And play it safe in the 1st/2nd if you want, but know that taking risky players there does not doom your season if they fail.
So, be thinking ceiling for most, if not all, of your draft. Know that you are going to punt a position or two and devise a strategy to optimize your chances of getting away with it. But most of all, take players you can believe in. Don’t talk yourself out of players you like because you already filled the position’s starting requirements or need to fill another starting position that just saw a run take place. Don’t take players that don’t give you the warm fuzzies. The heart of this endeavor is still player/team evaluation, even if it is also the most difficult part.
So I just made a big speech to tell you that draft plans only give you incremental edges, but they won’t win your league for you. Now here’s my draft plan. Enjoy.
A new frontier
This year gives you more freedom and flexibility than any year since I have been doing this. Quarterbacks with clear Top 3-5 upside at the end of the Top 10, or even outside of it. Running backs with Top 6-8 upside are there in the third round. Wide receivers with Top 20 upside are there into the 30s and sometimes 40s. Tight Ends with Top 3-4 upside are there in the mid-rounds, and plenty of potentially serviceable or better options are there in the late rounds.
This year -- more than any other year -- should embolden you to get your favorites. ADP, be damned, you should be willing to reach a round or two early for the players you have the strongest belief in. The depth of tiers and variety of opinions has created an inside out moment. With the proliferation of fantasy analysis, we can find sound arguments to defend or detract from taking every player at ADP this year. ADP won’t reflect the true range of a player's likely draft window and, come Week 3 or 4, lots of reaches are going to look like values and values will be dropped in early waiver wire runs. Team construction is easy this year. With a Chinese Menu approach, you can adapt your draft plan on the fly. Miss on your early targets? Simply adjust to addressing those positions in the middle or late rounds. There are viable options at every level of your draft. Different names may appeal to you than the ones that appeal to me, but rest assured, a lot of names should appeal to you.
This is Important - I give you my targets and reasoning, but you should target the players you believe in the most. Don't blindly rely on my player evaluation!
Quarterback
Every year, the quarterback position gets deeper and easier to manage. Really. There are going to be multiple right answers at quarterback this year, and right answers in every area of your draft. At least one or two of the top five drafted quarterbacks will return that value and be worth taking at ADP, and as the fantasy hive mind continues to wait longer on all quarterbacks, including the elite options.
Don’t overlook quarterback as a position that can give you a material advantage! Don’t think of the 15-20 points you can get most weeks from your QB20 (or even a waiver wire quarterback) as a win at quarterback. Think of that as a zero, and aim for quarterbacks with 25-30 point weeks within their scoring range, if not 30+. Be open to taking and carrying more than one quarterback and targeting matchups week-to-week.
Know your lineup settings! This advice becomes more important the fewer starting spots you have. It also becomes more important in .5 PPR or non-PPR leagues. By decreasing the scoring range for RB/WR/TE, a big quarterback week becomes more decisive in fantasy matchup results. Know your scoring system! Six-point passing touchdowns or passing yard performance bonuses create passing ceilings to match the running quarterback ceilings. This might seem like rudimentary advice, but even in so-called expert drafts, I see strong evidence that not everyone changes their rankings/draft picks to reflect the scoring and lineups.
What button should I press on the elevator?
Think of your quarterback choice like you’re on an elevator with your league opponents. The best times to get off are first, in the middle of the group, or near the end. Let how your draft unfolds and your relative confidence in the quarterback in question and alternatives at other positions guide you. Don’t be afraid of being the last on the elevator.
First one off
Patrick Mahomes II in the late second through the fourth
Can Patrick Mahomes II eclipse what he did last year? Why can’t he is probably the better way to ask the question. He will gain Mecole Hardman to further stretch defenses and signs point to Sammy Watkins being healthier than years past. Mahomes also seems like the type of player who is competing against an ideal, not his competition. He is unlikely to rest on his laurels and coast on his past accomplishments. It’s doubtful he ever could have done what he did last year if he was that type. If it seems impossible that Mahomes can be better last year, remember that what he did last year seemed impossible going into the season. Running back and wide receiver are deep enough to afford you one (or even two) non-RB/WR early picks. Mahomes will give you plenty of 10-20 point weeks in our quarterback scoring system where a 15-20 is really a zero.
UPDATE: Deshaun Watson is now closer to Mahomes and could be a target himself if he falls to the fifth or later.
Middle of the pack
Carson Wentz/Matt Ryan/Baker Mayfield at QB6 or so
UPDATE: Removed Cam Newton after preseason foot injury. There's no reason to take on extra risk at quarterback
I don’t mean to slight Deshaun Watson or Aaron Rodgers, but there are quarterbacks with similar ceilings (and risk) available from QB5-QB10. In leagues that reward big passing days, passing touchdowns, and long passing touchdowns, Wentz or Mayfield get the nod. Ryan might end up being the best of this bunch with his schedule, track record, and the possibility of the running game shrinking if Devonta Freeman goes down again. Take the quarterback you believe in most, and if you like them all similarly, feel free to wait until one or two of them are gone. None would be a surprise in the top three at the end of the season.
One of the last off
There’s no reason to be nervous if only one or two of your opponents are left on the elevator with you. Russell Wilson starts with a lot of good offenses that will test Seattle’s anemic pass rush and possibly force Wilson to air it out. Kyler Murray has a rare combination of rushing and passing upside via possible schematic advantages and a poor defense. Jared Goff and the Rams' late-season swoon conceals a high floor/high ceiling option for more passing stat heavy leagues.
Last one aboard
UPDATE: The return of Josh Gordon has made Tom Brady a preferred target in this tier
Being the last one on the elevator with the hope of advantages pocketed elsewhere is a good feeling this year. Lamar Jackson is the answer here with his rushing upside, the promise of more passing upside, and an opening schedule of Miami, Arizona, and Kansas City. Tom Brady is very attractive all of the sudden with the return of Josh Gordon. Dak Prescott could be a big hit here if Ezekiel Elliott holds out into the season, and he appears to have a solid chance of finishing in the QB7-10 range even with Elliott on the field. It’s not my preferred angle, but Ben Roethlisberger is also available in the part of your draft. Jameis Winston is a good pick for passing stat heavy leagues, but after the 49ers to open, his schedule might get a little rocky, so consider pairing him with another option from the tier.
Last one aboard and let half of the league take backups before you get off
Yes, quarterbacks are deep enough to do this and get away with it. Kirk Cousins is there as your high-floor option in passing stat heavy leagues. Josh Allen and Mitchell Trubisky give you top-five upside every week. Pair them and play the best matchup every week. Matthew Stafford opens with Arizona. Derek Carr gets Kansas City in Week 2. Andy Dalton opens with Seattle and San Francisco. Quarterback is going to be the easiest position to trade for during the season. Some teams carrying two good options might get frustrated and drop one during the bye week gauntlet. If you want to max out RB/WR/TE upside and wait until the kicker/defense portion of your draft to address quarterback, it can work.
A note on going cheap at quarterback: I’m not against going cheap at quarterback, but the pendulum is starting to swing back to investing in a quality option. I don’t believe that going cheap at quarterback AND going cheap at tight end is a good strategy. The one exception is if your league is very trade-friendly and amassing value at running back and wide receiver will give you lots of chances to trade for an elite quarterback/tight end and lock up strong options at every position. While I believe in planning around a weakness, I wouldn’t want that weakness to be quarterback AND tight end. Running back turnover and wide receiver depth make those easier positions to mitigate while leaving a weakness in your draft than quarterback (because more and more owners go late at quarterback) and tight end (because of scarcity). Pick one of quarterback and tight end to go cheap at, but don’t leave yourself among the bottom of your league at both spots. That doesn’t mean you have to spend a pick in the first 5-6 rounds at either position. You can draft your quarterback and tight end in Rounds 7-9 in many leagues and feel good about your starters at both positions.
A note on 2QB/Superflex leagues: That same quarterback depth can allow to wait longer, but don’t ignore the value of a weekly advantage/ceiling at the position applies. Take your quarterbacks when the RB/WR/TE on the board doesn’t feel like a value compared to their ADP in start one quarterback leagues.
Running back
Upside down/do the opposite/zero running back drafting is looking less attractive than previous years. Not because it is more difficult to pull off - rookies with high ceilings and receiving backs with high floors are still available in the fifth round or later. A Kelce/Mahomes draft is fun and it is a classic start to that kind of draft. No, the reason to eschew that draft plan this year is the wealth of running backs carrying first-round value upside at a third-round cost. Instead, consider a modified version, where you lock in your favorite third round back as your RB1 and otherwise neglect the position. There’s nothing wrong with a Top 4 running back-Nick Chubb start if you can pull it off. Once again, the keynote here is to ignore rigid draft planning and stay agile to get your targets and adjust strategy as you see which of your pets fall to you.
RB1
Top 4 draft slot
Christian McCaffery, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott. We may disagree on the order, but this is the top four in most drafts as it should be. Elliott may fall out of the top four on holdout worries, but to me, this feels like the classic resolved on the eve of the season holdout, and if Elliott was in camp, he’d be my #1 overall. The value in the late 2nd at wide receiver is excellent and the value at running back in the early third is great. #4 might be the best pick to draw this year if Elliott shows for Week 1.
David Johnson in the mid-first
Do you believe in Kliff and Kyler? Kingsbury is known for molding his system to the talent he has and there is no better talent in this offense than Johnson. After a few weeks, we might be revising our top four into a top five and anticipating this before the season by selecting the #5 draft slot when you have the option could be very wise in hindsight.
Nick Chubb, James Conner in the late first/early-mid second
UPDATE: James Conner appears to be in line for much the same role as last season and looks like a player who has taken a step forward since last we saw him.
After the top five, Chubb would be my target as my RB1. That means you can go wide receiver or Travis Kelce in the back half of the first and often get Chubb in the second. His outlook is better than any back outside of the top five for the first eight games, and I’ll worry about what happens when Kareem Hunt returns later when I am enjoying the profit of having two first-round picks for more than half of the season. Jaylen Samuels appears to be no material threat or Conner's workload and Conner has reshaped his body a la Marshawn Lynch/LeVeon Bell. He is still in an ideal situation. I'm not even going to talk you out of Dalvin Cook or Joe Mixon here. Bell is the one back in this tier who is usually going before I'm ready to take him.
Kerryon Johnson/Devonta Freeman/Chris Carson in the third
I love Johnson’s game and he’s in a situation that will give him a ton of work. We already know what Freeman can do (when healthy), and he has no significant competition for touches in Atlanta. There are other options in this tier like Damien Williams or Leonard Fournette in the late second/early third, or Aaron Jones in the third. Williams is looking particularly attractive with Darwin Thompson available as a clearer handcuff to protect your investment in this backfield. We can even include a falling Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon (more on that in a second). Chris Carson might not be there in the fourth now, and his finish to 2018 along with his career arc are both attractive. The bottom line is that you can start with two non-running backs and still get a back with a reasonable shot at RB1 production, if not production on par with everyone going outside of the top five (or even in the top five!) at a discount this year.
A note on Gurley and Gordon: I won’t talk you out of putting a chip on Gurley because of his track record, positive camp reports, and the quality of the situation. I just can’t because I don’t trust the Rams or Gurley to tell us the truth about his knee or usage as the season goes on. Gordon seems likely to take his holdout into the season when we look at the Chargers' usual business practices, and who knows if he’ll have the same role when he returns after a messy public spat. He hasn’t held up for a whole season in two of the last three years anyway. Gordon and Gurley make a lot more sense in high stakes leagues or best ball contests where you are trying to be the best of thousands of teams, not 10 or 12.
RB2
Chris Carson/Sony Michel in the fourth
UPDATE: Carson continues to rise and might not be there in the fourth now. Michel looks better than ever and his offense might have more touchdown drives to finish with Josh Gordon on the field.
This is one of the easiest picks in the draft and another reason to break ties against running back in the second half of the first round and then starting WR/WR or WR/Kelce. Carson is set up for a career year as he is getting into his career arc peak and for some reason going in the fourth round. Candy from the proverbial baby. Michel can add more as a receiver this year since he was in camp and worked more in the passing game, and he looks sharp after offseason knee surgery.
Freeman/Johnson or your favorite third-round running back
After going running back in the top half of the first or taking Chubb in the second, you can put a nice bow on your starting combination by going running back in the third. The only problem with this is taking Carson as your RB3 might be gratuitous and hurt you elsewhere, but as long as you have a flex, it’s probably okay. Maybe even if you don’t, since consistent RB1s are THE most coveted trade commodity during the season.
Duke Johnson Jr in the fifth
UPDATE: James White loses some luster with Gordon's return and right now Matt Breida looks better than Tevin Coleman. Kyle Shanahan will see this sooner or later. Johnson has become the preferred RB2 target in the fifth round with his massive opportunity in Houston. There's risk that they'll acquire another back, but Johnson has shown enough in limited work in the past to trust when paired with Deshaun Watson.
Austin Ekeler in the sixth/seventh
With every passing day, the chances of Ekeler being the starter Week 1 and beyond in a good Chargers offense increases. He actually produces value as #2 that was as strong as his starter weeks last year, which should make you feel better about targeting him at ADP. Taking Ekeler as your RB2 anticipating an early run of Gordon-less weeks while locking in advantages elsewhere could be unfair to your opponents if it works, and he’s another ideal upside-down draft target.
Running back Bench
A high ceiling rookie
Maybe it’s Miles Sanders, maybe it’s Darrell Henderson, your call. It’s probably not David Montgomery as he is being drafted close to his ceiling already (although I won’t talk you out of him in the fifth round). Both of these backs have a path to weekly flex/matchup RB2 value with a limited role because of the quality of the situation and raw talent. Sanders could blow Jordan Howard away and his value should increase as the season goes on. Henderson will be a weekly PPR flex if he gets the Chris Thompson role, and the chance of Todd Gurley’s usage reducing or any other version of a replay of December and the playoffs gives Henderson similar late-season value explosion possibilities. Build upside into your draft. This is one of the best ways to do it.
An underrated receiving back
UPDATE: Dare Ogunbowale has some momentum in Tampa and qualifies in deeper leagues.
Ekeler was already discussed above. Taking Ekeler as your RB3/Flex should allow you to sleep at night after only investing two of your first six picks at running back. Jaylen Samuels fits here later, and Chris Thompson very late. Giovani Bernard has combination receiving back and injury upside value if the new regime in Cincinnati uses him more than the last one.
Exciting backs with reasonable paths to value
Matt Breida and Justice Hill are my RB4 targets (getting both is even better), who are going outside of the top 10 rounds. Breida might be a better running back than Tevin Coleman, who has an injury history that is spotted, even though it is better than Breida’s. Pairing Coleman and Breida is one of the best handcuff combinations in terms of price, quality of players, and quality of situation. Hill is by far the most explosive back in Baltimore. He might open the season as the #4, but if the Ravens line keeps opening the holes they did last year and defenses are still afraid of Lamar Jackson running, Hill could break some big plays early that force them to rethink their running back pecking order.
Backups in good offenses
Darwin Thompson. Damien Harris. Malcolm Brown. These names lead the list in this group. It might take some patience, waiting for an injury, but if they can get on the field they will be relevant for fantasy leagues. Roster size is important here. If you have short benches, you might not be able to be patient and still harvest the value from early waiver wire runs.
Early Reveal Fliers
Whether or not you have a short bench, backs that reveal their value early in the year are good to target later because you can move on quickly if they disappoint, but they are even more important to target when you can’t sit on bench stashes for months to see if anything develops. Tony Pollard leads the list here with the possibility of Ezekiel Elliott’s holdout stretching into the season, and he’s a must draft if you take Elliott in the first. He has been impressive enough to possibly have mini-Kamara value even if Elliott shows before Week 1, and Elliott could be at greater risk of an early-season soft tissue injury if he’s not in football shape. Justin Jackson has an early reveal of value based on the Melvin Gordon holdout. Austin Ekeler might not hold up under a heavy September workload. Kalen Ballage fits here with Kenyan Drake’s injury possibly affecting his early-season availability, although his price is going up quickly.
Kareem Hunt and Devin Singletary
As Paul Charchian has pointed out, Hunt will at worst have trade cachet as his return approaches. He and the Cleveland offense are both good enough to create value even with Nick Chubb yielding only a small part of his workload. The key is bench size. Long bench leagues should push Hunt up into the 10th-12th round range with little opportunity cost on the waiver wire spent to hold him through his suspension. Holding him through the first half of the waiver wire gauntlet will be more difficult in short bench leagues. Chances are we will look at his ADP as too cheap come November.
UPDATE: Singletary has had ample chances to show the Bills coaches that he can be the lead back and now they will basically give him every chance to stay there after releasing LeSean McCoy. He's more of an 8th-9th round target in the Thompon/Hill tier.
Handcuffs
Some of the shakiest #1 backs don’t have a clear handcuff. Brian Hill might lead the backups to Devonta Freeman, but the preseason is important. The same goes for Alexander Mattison behind Dalvin Cook. Alfred Blue behind Leonard Fournette. Jamaal Williams behind Aaron Jones. Jordan Wilkins behind Marlon Mack. Taking the one that matches one of your early picks is a reasonable late-round strategy, but be ready to pivot to another back in the same depth chart or another backup who shows out early in the season and clarifies a backup situation that is opaque right now.
Wide Receiver
Wide receiver is strong in the second half of the first through the end of the second or so, and then picks back in value around the fifth round through, well, the end of the draft. The key to your wide receiver strategy this year is having clarity on your mid-round targets because attractive talents who could blow away previous productions levels abound.
WR1
Take your pick in the mid-first
Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham/ All are the type of fantasy commodity we set our watches by, and they are the kind of first-round picks that lowers your blood pressure going into the second.
Beckham, JuJu Smith-Schuster, or Mike Evans in the second
Yes, Beckham is falling to the second. Smith-Schuster has WR1 overall in his range of values. Evans, too, and maybe with a higher floor than Smith-Schuster. Some might prefer Michael Thomas or Tyreek Hill in this tier, although they often go before Smith-Schuster and Evans. The point here is that the value dropoff at wide receiver from the first to second round is shallow. These receivers pair well with a first-round running back or Kelce (or Mahomes depending on scoring/lineups)
Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen in the third
If you wait until the third round to take your WR1, you probably won’t match the teams taking their WR1 earlier, which is not true about third-round running backs. Allen and Thielen have limited ceilings to go with high floors, but if you start your draft with zero wide receivers in the first two picks, I’d say just keep going further down that road and don’t take one in the third
Tyler Lockett in the fourth
UPDATE: The return of Josh Gordon removes Julian Edelman as a target here.
Lockett is more exciting and he could easily be a WR1 this year with only a modest increase in targets. Add in an early-season schedule full of good offense that could force Seattle out of their offensive shell and Lockett might end up being the key to a hot start. I wouldn’t despair at having him as my WR1 in a Kelce/Mahomes/RB1 start, or any other combination that locks in advantages at running back.
WR2
Beckham, Evans, Smith-Schuster in the second
I have to admit it is invigorating to think about starting WR/WR when you can possibly get two top-five wide receiver options. That might be Plan A when you draw a draft slot near the end of the first round, depending on your feelings about Kelce and Chubb. Having two top-five wide receivers can create a lot of leeway at other positions.
Lockett in the fourth
For the reasons laid out above, Edelman and Lockett are attractive because they provide WR1 upside at a mid-low WR2 price. Pairing one of them with a mid-round Evans could allow you to keep pace with those teams that started WR/WR near the turn with a better RB1 or unfair advantage at one of tight end or quarterback.
Chris Godwin, TB, Allen Robinson, CHI in the fifth
Robinson was an elite WR1 with Blake Bortles. He will be better than he was last year now that the ACL tear is two years in the rearview mirror. Even with some concern about Mitchell Trubisky, this offense should create a lot of advantages and allow Robinson some WR1 weeks. Godwin could top 100 catches as a full-time player and there’s a lot of targets vacated in Tampa.
UPDATE: T.Y. Hilton, IND, Josh Gordon, NE, Robby Anderson, NYJ in the fifth-sixth
Hilton is going to fall far enough to be a cheap WR2/WR3 and Frank Reich's offense should be better than the one Jacoby Brissett was in during his first run as starter in 2017. Gordon was a WR1 when Gronkowski was out last year. Anderson and the whole Jets offense has a positive vibe around it. This group can reach WR1
Jarvis Landry, CLE, Christian Kirk, ARI, Curtis Samuel, CAR in the sixth
Landry should benefit from Odell Beckham drawing coverage and feast in the slot. The arrow is pointing way up for Samuel, who has all of the appeal of DJ Moore at a cheaper price. Kirk could lead the Cardinals possibly prolific pass offense. He can play inside and outside, add value on short and deep passes, and Kliff Kingsbury tried to recruit him for his offense twice.
Christian Kirk, ARI, Curtis Samuel, CAR, Sammy Watkins, KC in the seventh
Watkins is having a healthy summer, and we know that we will project a healthy Watkins higher than a seventh-round pick value week-to-week. He’s a reasonable WR2 as long as he’s on the field and at full speed. Kirk, Samuel and maybe even Allen Robinson have the potential to fall to the seventh round
What about AJ Green?
He’s a luxury in the fifth or sixth round. We’re looking at three or more games without him and who knows how he will look when he returns. As much as I love Green, it’s impossible to know if he will be 100% at any point this year given the lack of details about his ankle surgery. I like taking him more in leagues with shallow lineups and deep benches.
WR3/Flex
If you start WR/WR, you can conceivably have Edelman, Lockett, Allen Robinson, or Watkins as your WR3. You shouldn’t feel any urgency to take one. Even waiting for Edelman/Lockett and Godwin/Robinson as your WR1 and WR2 you can afford Kirk/Samuel or Watkins as your WR3, which is nothing to be ashamed of. The depth at wide receiver should allow you to take three in the first seven rounds that you are happy with no matter when you take them. Wide receiver is so deep with WR3/Flex types this year that you can actually wait even longer and still get acceptable players.
Ascending talents
Dante Pettis, SF, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB, Keke Coutee, HOU in the eighth or later
Pettis has been the subject of motivational coachspeak, but he’ll play a central role in the passing game even if he’s not pushed to greatness this year. Valdes-Scantling will be settled in as Aaron Rodgers #2. Coutee needs to be healthy, but the Texans expect big things from him and you should too, as long as he can avoid the injury bug.
UPDATE: Coutee falls in prominence here with the addition of Stills
Veteran Standbys
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, Desean Jackson, PHI, John Brown, BUF, Emmanuel Sanders, DEN, Kenny Stills, HOU in the 9th/10th
Fitzgerald could get back to his late-career peak in the new offense. Jackson and Carson Wentz have been tearing it up since the deep threat rejoined the Eagles. Brown looks like the clear #1 for Josh Allen and we saw what Robert Foster could do as Allen’s deep threat last year. Sanders is healthy, and Joe Flacco has a habit of latching onto experienced veteran receivers, even in his first year playing with them.
UPDATE: Stills getting paired with Deshaun Watson in a situation with mega-injury upside puts him in this tier
Bench Wide Receiver
In addition to the two groups above, who can be WR3/Flex plays, but are more likely to be your first wide receiver off of the bench, you’ll be pleased when you see the wide receiver depth through the end of your draft. There are my preferred targets, but you should feel free to aim at others as long as the reasoning is sound.
Breakout Candidates
D.K. Metcalf, SEA, Michael Gallup, DAL, Miles Boykin, BAL
All have been the subject of summer buzz. Boykin will have the biggest opportunity, Metcalf the most high-value targets, and Gallup now has the upside of Amari Cooper’s heel problem.
Part-time player, full-time ceiling play
Geronimo Allison, GB, Marquise Goodwin, SF, Rashard Higgins, CLE
Allison should be in the slot for Aaron Rodgers, and he was already fantasy relevant last year before getting hurt. Goodwin was projected as the #1 in San Francisco offense before he got last year and will be the field stretcher for Jimmy Garoppolo after the two finished very strong in 2017. Higgins will be the #3 with great matchups for the first four weeks while Antonio Callaway is suspended and maybe longer.
Slot machines
Jamison Crowder, NYJ, Trey Quinn, WAS, Hunter Renfrow, OAK
In deeper PPR leagues, the high floor, low ceiling slot receiver who could dominate targets will give you cheaper 10-15 games. Crowder is already accomplished here and Robby Anderson might be neutralized by a murderer’s row of CB1’s. Quinn and Renfrow are new names, but with quarterbacks who are conservative, they could be among team leaders in targets and catches. Adam Humphries fits here, but he’s not a preferred target.
Camp stars
Preston Williams, MIA, Keesean Johnson, ARI, Jakobi Meyers, NE, Jake Kumerow, GB
This group had little fanfare in their draft classes, but they’ve created a lot of buzz this summer. Williams has a connection with Josh Rosen and might start if DeVante Parker can’t stay on the field or lets the coaches down. Johnson has taken to the new offense better than the receivers drafted above him by the Cardinals. Meyers has quickly been taken into Tom Brady’s inner circle and could be a huge winner if Julian Edelman goes down. Kumerow clearly has Aaron Rodgers eye and has done enough to make the team, we’ll see where it goes from there.
Rookie Grab Bag
Marquise Brown, BAL, Mecole Hardman, KC, Deebo Samuel, SF, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI
Brown still isn’t full speed after offseason foot surgery and Campbell still hasn’t gotten over a hamstring injury after he was impressing early in camp. Mecole Hardman isn’t hurt, but he has a lot of targets in front of him in Kansas City. Samuel and Hurd are parts of a mess but might have the advantage of an earlier reveal with Trent Taylor sidelined by a foot injury. Brown has to overcome the limited targets in Baltimore and Campbell has quarterback. Hardman might have to wait for an injury to a starter to be fantasy relevant. Then again, some of these rookies have the ability to make chunk plays in offenses that should set them up for success and the 49ers receivers face Tampa to open the season. They are good late picks in leagues with long enough benches to allow you to put them in the incubator for a while.
UPDATE: Hurd and Campbell have been dropped from this target list because of Hurd's injury and Luck's retirement. JJ Arcega-Whiteside has been added after a strong summer and DeSean Jackson's injury
Tight End
Does this sound familiar? There is a small group of reliable every-week studs, a handful of established viable options - a few of which could make the leap to the elite tier, and a bunch of question marks with hopes that one or two will pan out. Much like the quarterback approach, tight end is a position where being the first or last off of the elevator - or somewhere in between - could be profitable
First off
Travis Kelce in the early second
He gets Patrick Mahomes II targets against defenses that can’t possibly defend everyone. He’s the clear favorite to be the #1 tight end.
Second/Third off
George Kittle in the third
You might wait for Zach Ertz to go, you might just take Kittle second, but he should be second on your list and the only other top-three tight end worth your premium pick. With the wide receivers underachieving in San Francisco, he’s a good bet to stay at the level he established in 2018. Ertz is in for a big target reduction this year.
Fourth/Fifth off
O.J. Howard/Evan Engram in the fifth
Either one of these third-year tight ends could be elite this year. Howard was a top 5-6 tight end last year on very limited targets and there’s a big opening in the Tampa passing game with two of the top four targets from last year gone. Engram has been generating a lot of buzz and will get to be the rare big-play option at tight end with extra targets for the first four games while Golden Tate is suspended.
Seventh off
Jared Cook in the seventh
After Engram, Howard, and Hunter Henry are gone, Jared Cook is staring at us in the seventh. The Saints are excited about his addition, he set career highs last year, and the playbook should open back up with the best Saints tight end since Jimmy Graham was traded.
Last off
One of Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson
and
One of Greg Olsen, Tyler Eifert, or Jimmy Graham
Maybe spending two picks at tight end isn’t your thing. In that case, maybe narrow this list to Andrews or the broken veterans. If roster spots aren’t too scarce, going for one upside youngster who may need some time to hit their stride and one veteran who may trip and get hurt just as they are hitting their stride is the ticket.
Andrews was ultra-efficient and Lamar Jackson’s best target last year, this year he starts the season with Miami, Arizona, and Kansas City. Goedert should get the biggest opportunity of any second tight end, and he has had a great summer and offseason. Watch his calf injury and Week 1 availability. Hockenson will start the year as the TE2 in Detroit but could change that in short order.
Olsen is back after offseason foot surgery and we know he’s Cam Newton’s #1 target when healthy. Eifert was just regaining form before a fluke injury and has had a blissfully injury-free summer plus extra early opportunity with A.J. Green out. Graham was surprisingly kept and might be better with Aaron Rodgers in Year 2.
Going Deep
Darren Waller, OAK
Jordan Thomas, HOU
If you have to go super deep at tight end (I like two tight end lineup leagues!), consider Waller -- a converted wide receiver with a rare size/speed combination -- and Thomas -- a converted wide receiver who might get extra early opportunity with Keke Coutee banged up.
Defense/Kicker
The last two rounds are defense and kicker rounds, and this year that is probably the best course of action, with last year’s #1 Chicago costing too much in drafts after they lost Vic Fangio. If you do decide to take a defense in the top 10, Baltimore gets Miami and Arizona to start the season, and then you can stream for Week 3 when they face Kansas City and hopefully have them help you start 2-0 after banking big points in those early matchups.
There are a lot of good options after the top 10, whether you are looking the first week and streaming from then on, or for a breakout defense candidate a la 2018 Chicago
Week 1 Streamers
Philadelphia (vs Washington) - This defense is still strong up front, and they will probably get Case Keenum and a Trent Williams-less Washington line.
Kansas City (at Jacksonville) - The Chiefs offense could boat race the Jaguars defense and force Nick Foles to air it out with comedy ensuing (unless you’re a Jaguars fan)
Detroit (at Arizona) - Not a believer in Kliff, Kyler and the Air Raid? Here’s your chance to profit from it.
Week 1 Streamer + Breakout Potential
Dallas (vs NY Giants) - The best linebacker duo in the league, Rod Marinelli coaching the defensive line, Kris Richard coaching the secondary, and Eli Manning. Then Miami and Washington the next two weeks.
Breakout Potential
Carolina - Week 1 at home against the Rams isn’t great, but the Panthers added Gerald McCoy, Brian Burns, and Bruce Irvin up front and might have the best front seven in the league. They also have a young, aggressive pair of corners and added Tre Boston to shore up safety. They are available late in every draft.
Last round kicker targets (all outside at Top 8 ADP)
Chris Boswell, PIT - Has had a great summer to secure his job and was once a very good fantasy kicker
Adam Vinatieri, IND - Indoors, old reliable, Colts offense could be scoring more field goals with Brissett.
Mike Badgley, LAC - Fair weather, good offense, and defense, quietly solving the Chargers kicker problem
Bottom Line
- Quarterback - Don’t fear Mahomes, otherwise aim for Top 3 upside in the Top 8, Top 5 upside in the Top 15, or Top 10 upside in the Top 20
- Running Back - Automatic in the early first. Nick Chubb is value in the second. The third round is where the value is if you pick correctly and don’t pass on Chris Carson in the fourth.
- Wide Receiver - Late first through mid-second is value, as is 5th-10th. Upside abounds in the mid-rounds.
- Tight End - Early, middle, late there are candidates throughout the position that can return value on investment
