Welcome to Week 8 of the 2022 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. Topics are now split into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Is the NFL's Passing Fest Over? (see below)
- NFL Trade Fallout: Old Faces in New Places
- NFL Trade Fallout: The Leftovers
- Four Veteran NFL QBs Walk into a Bar...
Is the NFL's Passing Fest Over?
Matt Waldman: The 2022 NFL season may be known as the season of two-high shells. This has been something I've been writing about in a variety of Footballguys features and discussing with guests on a lot of podcasts. Opposing defenses have responded to the collegiate influences that have trickled into the NFL offenses over the years with the use of two-high safeties, nickel/dime defenses, and lighter box defenders to limit passing games.
Offenses are discovering that one of the best ways to combat these looks is to run the football. One of the specific methods is the use of more gap plays (pulling guards, lead blockers, etc.), which allows offenses to exploit smaller defenders with the size of their offensive linemen and tight ends and the speed of their runners.
Michael Lopez, the NFL's Director of Analytics, publicly examined this situation a few weeks ago. Adam Harstad labels him "the best of us" when it comes to the rigor with which he examines data. Scoring was down by five points per game versus the same time last year.
He then looked at Expected Points. FGs, Penalties, and Extra Points were essentially flat with minor fluctuation. Rush Efficiency is up -- the highest or the second highest since 2011, depending on the model you use. Pass Efficiency is way down -- the lowest or second lowest since 2011, depending on the model.
As a result, the gap in efficiency between rushing and passing plays is the smallest it has been since 2011. Harstad looks at these trends and without taking a super close look but knowing the history of them, he estimated this was probably as low as it has been since the early 2000s.
While 50 games isn't a huge sample, it's not a trivial one, and based on what we've seen since, I'd hazard a guess that the last three weeks haven't changed significantly to favor passing. Defensive shifts are largely driving this, according to Lopez.
Adam Harstad: Here’s the full look by Michael Lopez for those who want to read it: https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/analytics/stats-articles/where-have-all-of-the-nfl-points-gone/
His department also added follow-up on high-level personnel trends over the last decade: https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/analytics/stats-articles/the-evolution-of-personnel-groupings-and-usage/
And fine-grained personnel versatility: https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/analytics/stats-articles/
Waldman: Thanks, Adam. Based on this information and what we've observed of the game thus far, I have some questions.
First, do you see passing offenses making meaningful adjustments to return to a higher standard of productivity this year?
Jeff Bell: This conversation is fascinating because if defenses have found a skeleton key, it is not working at the top. Josh Allen is posting career highs in passer rating and yards per attempt and is on pace to break the yardage record while seeing a career-low sack rate. Patrick Mahomes II lost Tyreek Hill yet is seeing his best statistical season since his 50 touchdowns in 2018. Joe Burrow just posted the second 480+ yard passing day since 2020. The Dolphins have increased their passing yardage by nearly 70 yards per game.
The bottom seems to be where it’s fallen out. Since 2012 no NFL offense has finished under 170 yards per game. In 2022, there are currently five teams under that number: Chicago (126), Atlanta (151), New York Giants (160), Tennessee (165), and Carolina (169). Dallas (183) and Baltimore (189) are running at levels that would have placed them at the bottom in 2021.
Waldman: There will always be exceptional options that challenge the curve.
Bell: True. And most interesting to this point, all of these teams but Carolina are in the heart of the early playoff race. The Giants, Titans, Cowboys, and Baltimore stand a combined 19-8, while the Falcons and Bears are early-season surprise stories at 3-4. The Cowboys can likely be excluded with Dak Prescott missing time, but the other teams have rolled back the clock and embraced a physical style that relies on running the football and playing defense. In a league that largely strived for one ideal style of football, it is fascinating to see how many new coaches are willing to play different styles that fit their team strengths.
Jason Wood: Any way you slice the data, NFL offenses are struggling this year. Scoring is at a decade low, and as Matt points out, the blame falls entirely on the passing game. In fact, by many measures, the rushing attack is more productive than we've seen in a generation. But from a fantasy perspective, while league-side rushing stats look great, the last time the NFL was this run-heavy, we still had the mandate to use feature backs for most downs. But in today's league, committees are standard fare, so the fantasy impact of the rushing resurgence feels less impressive than the overall numbers suggest.
I'm not sure we should expect a significant improvement in passing attacks this season. While the league follows cycles, it rarely changes in-season. Teams need to make adjustments in the form of new coaches, new personnel groupings, and the installation of counter-punches into the playbooks. This isn't the first time we've seen a defensive shift hurt offenses, and it won't be the last. And in a season or two, the NFL offensive minds will have figured out the counter, and the defensive coaches will be back on their heels. But in 2022? Expect little improvement.
One of the biggest mistakes fantasy managers make is looking at Year N and assuming that's the "new norm" when drafting Year N+1. We see it every draft season. In a year when running back scoring is down, everyone turns their attention toward receivers in the early rounds. In a year when quarterback scoring is down, you can expect most to discount the position even more than they do currently.
By the time most people followed a Zero RB strategy, it was smarter to zag back into drafting elite tailbacks because the discount had gotten too pronounced. So in answer to your question Matt, I think the smart play for 2023 drafts is to assume an improved passing attack. I do think an argument should be made (and I've been making this for some time), that we need to get back to properly valuing the quarterback position.
Elite quarterbacks are very valuable. Just as elite tight ends, running backs, and receivers are. As an industry, we've fallen into the lazy analysis of "oh, just wait on a quarterback; they're all the same," and it drives me nuts. In a way, what we're seeing this year is punishing that laziness, and I'm here for it.
Bell: The league is accelerating towards a “have and have not” in offensive production. This low passing volume is removing entire passing games from fantasy consideration.
Drew Davenport: For me, this question puts coaching staffs under the microscope. The best coaches adjust series by series, quarter by quarter, and game by game. This is leading to more of a stratification of offensive success, with elite coaching staffs (and quarterbacks) providing a massive difference in production over offenses that are considered middle of the pack in 2022. There's only so much you can do in the middle of the season, but the best coaches and quarterbacks will do it, and the vast majority won't. I wouldn't expect a huge adjustment this year, but just as Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes II have had to evolve the past 25 games, the best ones find ways to succeed, and we'll continue to see mediocre to poor play in far more situations than we want.
Andy Hicks: It has always been assumed that defenses have the early season advantage. As the season wears on, defensive depth is tested and weaknesses exploited. This season it has taken longer. Perhaps due to teams treating preseason as a joke. The constant revolving door of coaching staff also doesn’t help. It takes time for players to understand nuance and develop chemistry. I am confident the passing revolution will level out as the season wears on. The worst of the worst will do the usual cycle of firing the coaching staff, getting new schemes and players, and being impatient when things don’t click immediately.
Matt Montgomery: Yes, Andy. Just as teams make adjustments at halftime of actual games, whole units and teams also make meaningful adjustments throughout the year. Seeing as how we are at week 8, we are almost at “Halftime” of the season and will really see what teams can manage through this and what teams will falter. A great example was Joe Burrow’s performance from weeks 1 & 2 to now. They were being shown lots of cover two and two high safety looks, and it resulted in some ugly offense. They have made adjustments, and the team as a whole look more comfortable.
Joseph Haggan: I don't see many teams making the necessary adjustments needed to make a meaningful impact for 2022. The problem seems to be consistency in the situation and coaching. If you look at the top 7 or 8 fantasy scorers at QB this year, the thing that links them is having the same coach and system in place as they have had for at least 2 full seasons. It helps with overall offensive cohesiveness.
After the top guys, most of the remaining QBs, outside of Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Tom Brady, all have either new teams or new head coaches. The most notable effects of the change of scenery are Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan. It seems that QB production has a lot to do with familiarity with coaching, scheme, and staff.
I don't think this year changes much but 2023 could see some spikes in value once these QBs have full seasons under their belts with coaching, location, and scheme.
Kevin Coleman: The lack of production with passing offenses is an issue in the league, with many variables contributing to it. One of the most significant variables is the poor quarterback play around the league. We are in the midst of a shift in the quarterback position in the NFL; the issue is the quarterbacks that were supposed to take the reigns in the league have struggled out of the gate.
The 2021 quarterback class consisted of Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Trey Lance, and Zach Wilson have all struggled to develop into top-tier quarterbacks in the league, which has caused this shift to feel incomplete. On top of these quarterbacks struggling, we have seen the older quarterbacks also struggle, which is one of the reasons we have seen passing offenses not be efficient in 2022. There is an argument to be made that these inefficiencies are mainly due to personnel, not necessarily passing schemes. There just is an apparent lack of depth at the quarterback position.
Waldman: Perhaps, but these quarterbacks were developing against defenses that didn't play these shells, so it may not be fair to label them bad. It would be like telling you to write next week's fantasy article while Joe Bryant is throwing footballs at you, and when you didn't finish the job on time or had more errors, you were labeled unfit for the role.
Coleman: Not exactly an equally-weighted analogy, but I get the point. Still, they're not performing at the end of the day, and will their team leadership take it into consideration? Probably. Will they hold off on looking elsewhere for talent that can do the job immediately? Probably not.
Waldman: Probably not. Next question: If defenses continue to limit passing offenses this year and hold them to significant lows versus recent years, how does this change your valuation of each position moving forward? Please address each fantasy position: QB, RB, WR, and TE.
Montgomery: I am of the camp that if you have a top-three fantasy quarterback, you can hide various problems with your team. These guys can contribute to huge totals of standard-scoring leagues. If the year is trending down, but you have Josh Allen/Patrick Mahomes II, you still get the bulk of the points at the position, and that isn’t a bad thing. Reaching for these types of guys is almost always a good decision.
Davenport: It has become apparent over the last few years that the late-round quarterback strategy was coming to an end. But 2022 has accelerated its demise, and now it looks like going after a handful of the top guys is going to have to be the way to operate for now. The list of guys that can carry you any given week is shockingly small right now, and even some of those names are frustratingly ordinary at times. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II are obvious choices, as are Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. But other than those four? It gets muddy fast. Lamar Jackson is struggling, and Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray can't seem to get untracked. Drafting a quarterback earlier than it feels comfortable to do so might be the move in 2023.
Hicks: If this scenario plays out, which I am optimistic will not happen, then: rushing quarterbacks become even more valuable as the passing touchdowns and yardage drop. No longer will we assume the quarterbacks ranked 6-20 are relatively interchangeable. The elite will stand out even more, and their draft prices move up a round or two.
Haggan: The top quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II, deserve first-round consideration even in 1QB leagues, mainly due to the drop-off after them. Waiting late to draft a quarterback can be disastrous; this year has shown it. Next, I think we see improvement in the QB play with more team continuity between QB and coaching staff plus hopefully better offensive line play. Defenses haven't just started changing to different personnel groups, IE more Nickel and Dime, just this season.
It's been changing for years now, dating back to when Mark Barron and Deone Bucannon created the Nickelbacker role. Playing Cover 2 and zone can and will be exploited after a year of pain. I don't think it's the changing of defenses that have forced poor quarterback play, it's been turnover throughout the league. If you miss on Mahomes or Allen, shoot your shot for a quarterback in the third or fourth.
Wood: A combination of the aging stalwarts, terrible offensive line play, and the aforementioned defensive scheme adjustments leave the quarterback position needing an upcycle. The very best signal callers, including Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II, should be considered in the early rounds because the gap between the elite quarterbacks and the average starter is wider than it's been. Anyone who continues to "just wait at quarterback" is going to pay the price, at least until the offenses figure out a counterpunch to the changes that drove down scoring this year.
Bell: An elite Top 5 of quarterbacks has emerged in fantasy: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes II. Future drafts should be a game of chicken, with teams drafting the traditional flex positions while keeping one of these players within sight. Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert linger but fall back a bit. Currently, every other quarterback is essentially replacement level, and the half of leagues that miss should collectively wait until the end of drafts.
Coleman: If defenses can limit passing offenses this year and we see a trend forming, it would elevate the league's elite quarterbacks and overall value. Players like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II would see a rise in their ADP, and managers would have to question whether the wait-and-stream option for the position is still viable moving forward. There should also be an emphasis on drafting running quarterbacks due to the fantasy upside, which should increase due to the new defensive schemes.
Haggan: I have never been a fan of the Zero RB strategy. Being handicapped rotating flex running backs throughout the season is painful. I'm almost always going to grab a running back in the 1st round to secure that one stud running back. Balance may be coming back to offenses via play calling with teams playing so many defensive backs. My valuation of running backs hasn't changed since the league has gone pass-heavy. In fact, grabbing that early-round stud is almost more important now than before.
Wood: Rushing productivity is back to its glory days, at least for 2022. But gone are the days when most coaches want to give one tailback 70%-80% of snaps, so we're still in a world where most fantasy managers are rotating RB2/Flex options and playing the hot hand. I don't think the position's value changes much, as it's always been the most sought-after position and will remain so, at least in terms of the first three or four rounds. And, as always, you need to be intellectually honest about how little separates the RB15 from the RB25 and not get caught up chasing mediocrity in the early rounds.
Davenport: There just aren't any running backs that do it all and don't come off the field anymore. So even if the passing games continue to sputter, I'm not sure that has a big effect on valuing this particular position. Fantasy drafters still need to try and get either the elite runner with goal-line carries or the talented pass catcher who can take advantage of the defensive adjustments already discussed above. I don't see things changing too much on that front.
Coleman: There is a shift coming in NFL offenses that we have already started to see with teams truly going towards a full committee backfield. This offseason will be interesting to see what types of contracts Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley get due to teams not wanting to rely on a true bell-cow runner that ties up their salary cap. That being said, the running backs who are true three-down backs that can stay on the field will always be elite assets to have on your roster. However, there is value in having the RB2 on your roster being the weakest part of your team. There isn’t much that separates a mid-tier RB2 from a low-tier RB2. There are ways to build a roster by utilizing streaming options for your RB2 spot based on these newfound committees.
Montgomery: This position is no longer an early-round priority of mine, especially since passing numbers are down and committee approaches are becoming more valuable. I don’t necessarily believe in the zero RB philosophy, but if there were a position to be “weak” with the least amount of downside to your roster, I would choose running back.
Bell: Committees grip fantasy football, and if teams truly rely on rushing the ball, they will need to use multiple backs, similar to the Bears’ usage of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. With only 24 starting spots for running backs, a leveling across the position will devalue the position outside of true three-down backs who see extensive passing game work, already the most valuable commodity in fantasy football.
Conversely, if 20% of the league sees no playable consistent volume from the wide receiver positions, the elite producers will grow even more valuable. The days of “wait on receivers” will be gone, and teams will squirrel away the consistent volume. The floor on many plays will no longer be 8-10 points in PPR formats but potentially halve that while also decreasing the odds of scoring touchdowns.
Hicks: Committees become more prevalent, but when there is a true bell cow, they become even more valuable. If that is even possible. The second and third tier of running backs are likely to be chosen ahead of a second or third receiver, but that isn’t much different from now.
Wood: I expect receiver will see the steepest discount in 2023 drafts as fantasy managers react to the passing struggles of 2022. But as I mentioned earlier, that will be a mistake as the discount will overshoot the mark. Continue to value receiver and running back equally in PPR formats and be prepared to aggressively target receivers if they fall below historical ADP buckets.
Hicks: This is the position most likely affected. Not the top group, but the wide receivers in the 16-40 ranking group might drop a round or two.
Montgomery: If passing yards are down, then you need to look into guys with consistent targets or even the guys who carry the ball (Deebo Samuel, Curtis Samuel). The position of "wide back" seems to be gaining popularity and could be a real weapon for teams moving forward, so look for guys who fit that role. This position is the deepest in the league in terms of the ability to score meaningful points, so value is a huge key for me as well.
Davenport: Fantasy managers are fickle and subconsciously come to the table with a lot of biases based on the previous season. In recent years the trend has been to load up on pass catchers (thereby taking running backs later and later because of the committees), but that hasn't worked too well so far this season. Managers are likely to overreact next year and fade the position too much. It might be an opportunity to seize next season.
Coleman: The fact of the matter is that if we are seeing receiver volume go down, the elite options, such as Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase, will be pushed up to new heights in ADP. With the lack of options as you progress in your fantasy drafts, there is a need for an elite receiver that can average over twenty fantasy points per game. This season, only five receivers fit that category: Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Chase. After that, we see a big discrepancy in WR1 and WR2 numbers. The 2023 season could be the first time we see an elite wide receiver as a candidate for the 1.01 in fantasy drafts.
Haggan: With how pass-heavy the league is, still with atrocious quarterback play, the position is incredibly deep. Unless it is Justin Jefferson or JaMarr Chase, I'm waiting til at least the second round to take my WR1. So many wide receivers will be valued poorly after 2022 that there will be value picks galore in Round 4 through 8.
Davenport: Tight end almost mirrors the quarterback position in how it is developing. After Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, it gets ugly fast. In fact, the drop-off from Kelce (146.8 PPR points) to Andrews (115.2 points) is as stark as the one between Andrews and Zach Ertz (85.0 points) in the third spot right now. I think I'll be treating the tight end very much like the quarterback position going forward. Securing an elite player is becoming more important than ever as the rest of the position is incredibly uncertain week-to-week.
Haggan: The top-tier talent of the tight end position is overvalued, mainly in part to the drastic tier drop-off. This year more than in recent years, due to poor quarterback play. What the tight end position does benefit from in this change to more zone and Cover 2 is their ability to find holes in the zone. Travis Kelce is so good at this, and that is why the Chiefs' offense is humming again. Even if this play continues, the strategy remains the same for me, if you can't grab a top-tier talent at a value, dart throw at the position in late rounds.
Wood: The tight end position is an outright disaster. I wonder if that's a result of defensive changes forcing tight ends to block more or if the position is just weak from a personnel standpoint. We could really use some of the younger players, including Trey McBride and Greg Dulcich, to pan out soon, or this is the position that warrants the least attention in redraft leagues.
Coleman: The position itself has been horrendous this season. Either you have Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews on your roster, or you are playing at a disadvantage at the position when facing those two. There is value in tight ends who can find the soft spots in the cover two and use their athleticism to gain YAC. We saw that with Pat Freiermuth in his most recent game against the Dolphins, where he earned nine targets and was a consistent option over the middle. We’ll need to see the data moving forward this season to see if that's a trend we can trust moving forward.
Hicks: Currently, we see players unworthy of being rated as starters drafted way above their value. As we have seen this year, there are more undrafted fantasy tight ends producing than ever. Best to wait on the position if you miss the true elite and either draft a bunch late or pounce on the waiver wire.
Bell: The Ravens are an interesting case, using Mark Andrews as their WR1 and never asking him to see involvement in pass blocking. Multiple players, like the tight end position, will be asked to serve as primary receivers more to play heavier packages.
Waldman: Final question: Give me one thing you think could possibly happen with the evolution of the game that could counteract two-high shells and lead to a change in how we strategize for fantasy football. For example, do we see more players with dual roles like Deebo Samuel or Taysom Hill? Do we return to the feature backs of the 90s who get a high degree of touches? What do you predict, no matter how wild it may seem?
Haggan: I think we could see teams follow the same strategy that NBA teams used recently. That strategy is positionless football. What I mean is to have multiple players on your offense that can fill multiple roles. The 49ers are doing this now with Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey. Both players can line up in the backfield, go in motion, and line up wide. It causes confusion and misdirection, as well as being harder to read. I would not be surprised to see more teams run more motion and move around pieces from the backfield to out wide and vice-versa to exploit matchups.
Bell: Concepts flow up, and concepts flow down. Spread concepts have beset college and high school football. Colleges used to feature unique identities between Wing T traditional option offenses, pro-style approaches, or spread. But what goes around comes around, and the NFL offenses that choose to lean heavily on the run will insert even more options, jet motion, and reverse elements into their run games. After all, we saw Mark Andrews take a snap and pitch to Lamar Jackson in Week 7.
Davenport: I don't think the league is ever going back to the days of the true feature backs. The violence of the game, the speed and strength of defenders, and the evolution of backfields point to committees being here to stay. The question, though, hits on what I think the eventual solution will be. Players like Tyreek Hill and Deebo Samuel don't grow on trees, but the position no longer demands that guys are tall and physically dominant to be seen as viable NFL receivers.
The solution would seem to be an emphasis on players who can win underneath and have the speed to break down the deep shells. Guys like Hill and Samuel are good examples, as are guys like Wan'Dale Robinson and Curtis Samuel. But it might take offenses deploying multiple players like this for it to have the proper weight. Imagine, though, having Tyreek Hill, WanDale Robinson, and Rondale Moore lining up to run crossers over the middle. It might feel a little weird, but it might also be incredibly hard to defend.
Hicks: Good coaches either get players that fit their schemes or develop schemes around their players. That seems to be obvious, but time and again, we see egos involved in trying to work against a player's best skills or develop schemes that are way too complicated. As far as evolution goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Whatever worked for the successful teams in 2022 will try and be replicated in 2023 and on and on. The successful ones will be the ones who do what they do well, regardless of trends or group thinking.
Montgomery: I believe we could see a return to hard-nosed interior running. Coaches don’t care who gets what stats, and most players agree. So if teams mold to a style of football from the past to counteract a defensive scheme and it wins, then we will see more of it. The game evolves, and it is up to the teams to do so as well. Some have, and it shows. Others haven’t, and it is just as noticeable.
Coleman: Teams must find more creative ways to get their playmakers involved in their offense. We could be looking at a time when teams hire more offensive-minded coaches, including those in the college ranks. As someone who covers college closely, so many concepts and schemes that work at that level could be brought over to NFL schemes. The NFL is a copycat league, so undoubtedly, these schemes will be copied, but teams who adapt and take chances early will benefit the most. There will also be a need for players that can create space and open up the field over the middle. The big frame receiver could be a thing of the past, with smaller slot receivers being more coveted in drafts moving forward.
Wood: As Matt knows, solving two-high shell defenses isn't complicated. All defensive schemes leave weaknesses, and when you're putting five or six defensive backs into intermediate and deep coverage, the solution for offenses is to run the ball. A methodical ball control offense is the solution. Unfortunately, the league, its coaches, and players are conditioned to throw aggressively and win with tempo.
Many offensive coordinators feel like their skin is crawling as they watch the offense eat up 10 minutes on a 15-play drive. But that is the solution. It's why teams like the Titans are still going to be playoff contenders, because their offense is built to play that way already, by necessity. And teams like the Rams and Buccaneers are struggling because they've won titles recently with pass-happy schemes.
I think the one thing to help offenses is already happening -- quarterbacks are running more. While Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts get plenty of attention for their prodigious rushing tallies, league-wide quarterback rushing has been on a three-year tear.
Waldman: Joe Montana started this era of the quarterback as a point. He just didn't have the handle of the modern-era quarterbacks to drive the lane. Nowadays, you need a great crossover. Montana the precursor to Hurts, Murray, and Jackson???
Yes. Just tilt your head at a 45-degree angle, close your eyes, and take a deep breath. No tinfoil hat is required.
If you'd like to see the rest of the topics, once again, you can find them here:
- NFL Trade Fallout: Old Faces in New Places
- NFL Trade Fallout: The Leftovers
- Four Veteran NFL QBs Walk into a Bar...
Thanks, and good luck this week!